Middle East Defence & Security
- Thread starter MaenZ
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Both the Chinese and Russians would veto such an action by the UNSC.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Can you clarify? How can any UNSC member veto a request to act on a resolution that has already been voted into effect in 2006?
Under resolution 1701, Hezbollah is to be disarmed and the LAF is to remain the sole armed force within Lebanon. The IDF in return is to avoid any military activity in Lebanon.
But as none really expects a UN peace keeping force to tackle a terrorist organization like Hezbollah, that has been neglected.
They will and it doesn't matter if something similar was passed. They don't care about such niceties. The PRC has signed treaties and UN Conventions that it routinely breaks. Russia did the same with its invasion of Ukraine.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Since the capture of car carrier Galaxy Leader by Houthis last week, there have been several unconfirmed reports of other ships being captured.
Regardless of whether any new incidents occurred, this is a possible return to the 2019-2021 tanker war in which Israel and Iran engaged in tit for tat attacks, primarily on cargo ships. Militarily, Israel had the upper hand. But deterring shipping to and from Israel has its own merits for Iran.
iranprimer.usip.org
Regardless of whether any new incidents occurred, this is a possible return to the 2019-2021 tanker war in which Israel and Iran engaged in tit for tat attacks, primarily on cargo ships. Militarily, Israel had the upper hand. But deterring shipping to and from Israel has its own merits for Iran.
Israel-Iran Conflict at Sea
Since 2019, Israel and Iran have reportedly engaged in tit-for-tat attacks on each other’s cargo ships. The onset of the shadow war at sea is unclear, but the first well-publicized incident was the suspicious breakdown of an Iranian oil tanker in the Red Sea in May 2019.
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اختصاصی| خرید جنگنده «سوخو35» و بالگرد «میل28» قطعی شد - تسنیم
سردار فرحی جانشین وزیر دفاع در گفتگو با خبرنگار دفاعی خبرگزاری تسنیم از قطعی شدن ورود بالگرد هجومی میل28، جنگنده سوخو35 و هواپیمای آموزشی یاک130 به ایران خبر داد.
www.tasnimnews.com
Iran apparently finally getting those Su-35s along with yak-130s and Mi-28s.
If the Su-35s are from the Egyptian order, then they can get those quickly enough. But I wonder what the wait time will be for the Mi-28s.
On a side note, from my conversations with Egyptians on other defense boards, they really really wanted those Su-35s, and have pilots and infrastructure already invested in it. They are not happy at all.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
You may like or hate or mixed feelings on this guy. However one thing for sure he has big influences on US Geopolitics since the second half of last century. Including shaping middle east policies, which still reflects presently.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Allegedly Israeli strikes in Yemen:
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Put it in this thread, rather then Gaza War thread, as this is more geopolitical trend support for middle east situation. For Israel off course this result still meaningless as long as they know US still back their war in Gaza. Question will be, if this results going to make US think more on the continuation of the war.
Not sure if this is the best thread but there are several reports this evening of a missile attack in Erbil, Iraq. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed responsibility of the latest missile attack in Erbil, saying they were targeting "headquarters of spies" in the region. According to ABC news 8 locations were targeted in the attack, and a source claimed 3 drones close to the Erbil airport were downed.
Explosions reported near US Consulate in Iraq; Iran claims responsibility - ABC News (go.com)
Iran has also attacked several targets in Syria: Iran Guards Launch Attack On 'Terrorist' Targets In Syria: Media | Barron's (barrons.com)
I hope this is not the start of an escalation but just a coincidence.
Explosions reported near US Consulate in Iraq; Iran claims responsibility - ABC News (go.com)
Iran has also attacked several targets in Syria: Iran Guards Launch Attack On 'Terrorist' Targets In Syria: Media | Barron's (barrons.com)
I hope this is not the start of an escalation but just a coincidence.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Attacking the HQ of Spies Inc. is Iranian jargon (internal consumption) for striking empty targets as a show of force.
In this strike Iran killed a Kurdish businessman but perhaps of more substance in a strategic sense is the structure itself - a mansion. Large in a man's eyes, but not ballistic-missile-large. This showcases Iran's capability to target select buildings, even if for now relatively large ones.
In the past we've seen Iran showing a capability to target bases.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I believe there is a relationship between the current atmosphere regarding Israel-Lebanon and the Iranian strike in Kurdistan's Erbil.
A slowdown in Gaza ops, withdrawal of troops for R&R, and buildup in the north, as well as public pressure to restore safety in the north and allow ~100,000 internally displaced Israelis to return home, all contribute to the sense of looming action and urgency to deal with Hezbollah.
Iran's strike in Erbil is odd if examined in the context of the western-Houthi conflict. Iran would ideally want to distance itself from it to safeguard its capabilities and arsenal for a true crisis. It also has the nuclear program to maintain and safeguard.
Hezbollah is one of those things that it needs to maintain, perhaps more so than its own local arsenal. It can be argued that despite the capability gap and physical limitations, Israel has higher readiness and willingness to attack Iran and its interests, and Hezbollah is an amazing deterrent should Israel think of attacking its nuclear program. Shutting Israel's economy down for 1-3 months in exchange for a few years delay in the nuclear program? Worth it. Especially as in every consecutive iteration Israel would be disadvantaged compared to the last.
Not only Israel though. The US has a large quantity of bases with strategic assets all over the region, and US air defense capabilities in those areas are not stellar. They are more intelligence-dependent than I assume the US would like them to be. Patriots are stretched thin across the globe, and medium and short range defenses are still in their infancy. The US is very likely to provide assistance to Israel in the case of war with both Iran and Hezbollah. Iran will likely prefer it if the US will limit itself to involvement only if Iran gets directly involved as well.
Israel is taking more and more seriously the topic of preemptive strike. It would nullify significant diplomatic advantages, but in light of Hezbollah's massive arsenal including munitions capable of causing significant, if temporary, harm to Israel's aerial capabilities (which are its quickest response forces) - this may become more of a necessity than a luxury.
Therefore I assume that the strike is intended to deter Israel from taking preemptive actions and the US from aiding Israel.
A slowdown in Gaza ops, withdrawal of troops for R&R, and buildup in the north, as well as public pressure to restore safety in the north and allow ~100,000 internally displaced Israelis to return home, all contribute to the sense of looming action and urgency to deal with Hezbollah.
Iran's strike in Erbil is odd if examined in the context of the western-Houthi conflict. Iran would ideally want to distance itself from it to safeguard its capabilities and arsenal for a true crisis. It also has the nuclear program to maintain and safeguard.
Hezbollah is one of those things that it needs to maintain, perhaps more so than its own local arsenal. It can be argued that despite the capability gap and physical limitations, Israel has higher readiness and willingness to attack Iran and its interests, and Hezbollah is an amazing deterrent should Israel think of attacking its nuclear program. Shutting Israel's economy down for 1-3 months in exchange for a few years delay in the nuclear program? Worth it. Especially as in every consecutive iteration Israel would be disadvantaged compared to the last.
Not only Israel though. The US has a large quantity of bases with strategic assets all over the region, and US air defense capabilities in those areas are not stellar. They are more intelligence-dependent than I assume the US would like them to be. Patriots are stretched thin across the globe, and medium and short range defenses are still in their infancy. The US is very likely to provide assistance to Israel in the case of war with both Iran and Hezbollah. Iran will likely prefer it if the US will limit itself to involvement only if Iran gets directly involved as well.
Israel is taking more and more seriously the topic of preemptive strike. It would nullify significant diplomatic advantages, but in light of Hezbollah's massive arsenal including munitions capable of causing significant, if temporary, harm to Israel's aerial capabilities (which are its quickest response forces) - this may become more of a necessity than a luxury.
Therefore I assume that the strike is intended to deter Israel from taking preemptive actions and the US from aiding Israel.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Is it just me or does it really not smell like an Iran-Pakistan confrontation?
Both sides appear militant and aggressive but really just strike Balochi targets. Sounds more like cooperation than mutual aggression. Your thoughts?
Both sides appear militant and aggressive but really just strike Balochi targets. Sounds more like cooperation than mutual aggression. Your thoughts?
1. Let me share my inchoate thoughts on Iran & Pakistan while professing great ignorance on the intel methods of the IRCG & the ideology of the Balochi militants.
2. In comparison to intel agencies of more capable states like Finland & Singapore:
(a) Iranian intelligence agencies have invested hundreds of million supporting attacks on American troops over the years to drive them out but as soon as the Americans under Obama left Iraq (on 18 Dec 2011), the Iraqi Govt lost to ISIS — the IRCG are great at supporting suicide bombing & helping others make IEDs but a total failure at creating a working Iraqi coalition to rule once the Americans depart.
(b) Further, the leaders of both Iran & Pakistan have a poor understanding of the intelligence gathering process, that has led to suboptimal outcomes. For example, the IRCG has tried to target Israeli owned ships but gotten it wrong at times. Their proxies, the Houthis have hit a vessel carrying Russian oil, hit a HK flagged vessel & even hit a palm oil cargo from Malaysia — all of which are own goals for the axis of resistance.
3. Before Singapore’s independence in 1965, we were fighting an enemy & neighbour, Indonesia. Strangely, today, we have managed to make Indonesia a client of our intelligence products to aid the TNI AD.
4. Let me share a few details. Information fusion capabilities is not easy to replicate without the needed infrastructure, people & processes — which is why Indonesia-Singapore intel sharing benefits them more than us — the ability of the Singapore Navy to utilise every database on ships to generate useable data to support our counter terrorism efforts at sea is an achievement.
(a) Singapore Army’s information fusion teams have deployed in multiple rotations to support US led coalition efforts in Afghanistan & Iraq — which means the SAF’s fusion teams speak the same lingo as the Australians & Americans. Further, the Republic of Singapore Air Force’s UAV teams have been deployed to Indonesia (earning a combat ribbon for the formation) & to Afghanistan. In Indonesia, a Singaporean UAV team supplied data & needed info to Indonesian special forces for a successful hostage rescue. In Afghanistan, Singaporeans helped kill insurgents with lesser ISAF casualties.
(b) An example of good actionable intelligence is Singapore’s intel agencies finding a single social media post (supporting ISIS) made by a crew member while a commercial vessel was sailing through the Strait of Malaya, boarding the vessel & making a timely arrest in Singapore port waters (one of the busiest in the world for ship arrivals), when the vessel arrived.
(c) While the Singapore Govt also expects to fail from time to time, these acts in Afghanistan, Indonesia & Singapore demonstrated the country’s technical ability to find a needle in a needle stack in specific terrain & on the World Wide Web that has geographical information (& not just a needle in a haystack).
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Interesting, but I personally disagree with the notion that Iran's recent actions were not conscious and deliberate but rather incompetent.
During my service I was impressed by how highly regarded Iran's intel capabilities were.
Not exceedingly, but certainly not incompetent.
They have demonstrated capabilities to acquire intel that requires complex operations, and the expertise they provide to their proxies has proven effective.
I do not know what drives their actions and when it might be a failure, but I doubt it's incompetence.
Regarding Pakistan, I believe it may be some cooperation rather than real tension. Initiating a real new conflict in a time like this is the exact opposite of rational strategy.
Regarding Houthi mishaps - I believe it may be a combination of a degree of autonomy, degraded regional intel capabilities due to western disruption, and perhaps even a calculation in which some "friendly fire" is worth the increased pressure in the Red Sea.
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I agree. There is the internal politics angle to consider as well.
This might be the period with the lowest public opinion of the Pak army.I dont recall a time in the last 30 years where the military was more unpopular, then it is now.
The Pakistani counterstrikes have been very popular with their civillians as has the strikes on Pakistan been for the Iranian civillians. Both autocratic govts get to wave their D***, shore up support and the only casualties are insurgent groups from an ethnic minority. Its like a dictatorship's wet dream.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Although Israel's political leadership disregards it, there is a de facto war going on in Israel's north. Ignoring it is and will continue to be highly detrimental to both the northern citizens who, 4 months later, are still internally displaced and have to seek temporary arrangements constantly, as well as Israel itself due to the taxing nature of war. The biggest economical losses Israel takes by being in a state of war are those incurred by shutting down whole parts of the country. Due to Israel's lack of strategic depth - this is necessary.
Every war in Israel's history against terrorists took ~1-2 months until the artillery threat to Israel is practically eliminated and the terrorists are considered subdued (temporarily of course).
If Israel takes upon itself grander missions, such as the total elimination of a terrorist organization, then naturally that would take longer. Hamas took over 4 months to eliminate in most areas, bringing it down to 6 battalions out of an initial 24. An operation in Rafah to practically eliminate Hamas entirely (until it can no longer operate as an organization in any meaningful capacity) is said to take "weeks" once it starts, and right now there is a pause for the sake of negotiations and civilian evacuation.
Israel should therefore prepare to fight for at least 3-4 months in Lebanon as well. The problem is that economically, Israel already burnt through at least several weeks worth of average impact from a war with Hezbollah. Its breathing space is thus shorter, meaning the sooner it enters a full scale war - the better.
It is important that:
First, the war cabinet recognize it as a war.
Second, they order a wider action with the intensity of a war.
Third, plans for strikes in Iran are rehearsed.
Any confrontation with Hezbollah is very likely to involve fire from Iran itself in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli defenses. As such, Israel must be prepared to preempt and tackle such a possibility, and to exact a price.
Additionally, ties with the US must be improved and additional aid must be requested to deal with this threat.
One standing issue is the composition and function of the war cabinet. Gantz and Eisenkot participate in it to provide a professional aspect to it. However the government's lack of transparency regarding the cabinet's activities and decisions, resulted in calls for both to resign from it. There is now a dilemma - should they resign in an act of protest with the hope of forcing the government to compromise more? Or stay put under the threat of a completely incompetent and deceitful cabinet leading the nation into even more difficult battles with potentially devastating results?
Strike on Hezbollah:
Hezbollah barrage:
Every war in Israel's history against terrorists took ~1-2 months until the artillery threat to Israel is practically eliminated and the terrorists are considered subdued (temporarily of course).
If Israel takes upon itself grander missions, such as the total elimination of a terrorist organization, then naturally that would take longer. Hamas took over 4 months to eliminate in most areas, bringing it down to 6 battalions out of an initial 24. An operation in Rafah to practically eliminate Hamas entirely (until it can no longer operate as an organization in any meaningful capacity) is said to take "weeks" once it starts, and right now there is a pause for the sake of negotiations and civilian evacuation.
Israel should therefore prepare to fight for at least 3-4 months in Lebanon as well. The problem is that economically, Israel already burnt through at least several weeks worth of average impact from a war with Hezbollah. Its breathing space is thus shorter, meaning the sooner it enters a full scale war - the better.
It is important that:
First, the war cabinet recognize it as a war.
Second, they order a wider action with the intensity of a war.
Third, plans for strikes in Iran are rehearsed.
Any confrontation with Hezbollah is very likely to involve fire from Iran itself in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli defenses. As such, Israel must be prepared to preempt and tackle such a possibility, and to exact a price.
Additionally, ties with the US must be improved and additional aid must be requested to deal with this threat.
One standing issue is the composition and function of the war cabinet. Gantz and Eisenkot participate in it to provide a professional aspect to it. However the government's lack of transparency regarding the cabinet's activities and decisions, resulted in calls for both to resign from it. There is now a dilemma - should they resign in an act of protest with the hope of forcing the government to compromise more? Or stay put under the threat of a completely incompetent and deceitful cabinet leading the nation into even more difficult battles with potentially devastating results?
Strike on Hezbollah:
Hezbollah barrage:
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
This is sentiment I agree with. Limited action or a maneuver in south Lebanon does not mean all out war. Regional parties know how to climb up and down the escalation ladder, with more than just "war" and "peace" options.
Same goes for confrontation with Iran over the Houthis.
Same goes for confrontation with Iran over the Houthis.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Iron Dome launcher fires all 20 missiles against incoming Hezbollah rocket barrage:
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
There is an apparent uptick in Israeli operations to clear minefields in the Golan (border with Lebanon and Syria). Israel's minefield clearing authority operates in the area continuously, sometimes to clear mines that have been there for over half a century. I do not have statistics on clearing operations, and any routine security event may be misinterpreted due to the ongoing war in Gaza and hostilities in the north, but it certainly feels like there is a serious uptick. Such events I hear about once every few months, and now it seems more like a weekly occurrence.
Public media channel 11 notes that local residents were not warned beforehand.
EDIT:
MoD statement:
"Yesterday the mine clearing authority conducted a controlled blast of 550 anti tank mines that were laid close to the border and Kibbutz Ein Zivan (close to Syrian Quneitra, perhaps the "hottest" spot along the Israeli-Syrian border) in the mid 80's. The area is being cleared for the purposes of agriculture and settlement development in the Golan."
Looking through their account, they have conducted another clearing operation on the 28th of February in exactly the same spot, clearing 250 mines.
Public media channel 11 notes that local residents were not warned beforehand.
EDIT:
MoD statement:
"Yesterday the mine clearing authority conducted a controlled blast of 550 anti tank mines that were laid close to the border and Kibbutz Ein Zivan (close to Syrian Quneitra, perhaps the "hottest" spot along the Israeli-Syrian border) in the mid 80's. The area is being cleared for the purposes of agriculture and settlement development in the Golan."
Looking through their account, they have conducted another clearing operation on the 28th of February in exactly the same spot, clearing 250 mines.
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