Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Ananda]

Generally, it is unhealthy for any nation to tie its policies to the state of another nation. The existence of NATO is one such example. The security of every member nation is tied in a way to the security of all other members. However, NATO is a well-thought and robust framework that frequently re-validates itself via new missions and reorganization, as well as the provision of sufficient autonomy to its members even within its core mission. That is, even if a member is called to action, it can decide the capacity in which it assists.

The Arab world's policy to tie Palestine to Israel can be explained in many ways. But it is arguable that this decision is obsolete. But instead of reversing it, it was neglected and allowed to grow.

No, it is not obsolete and definitely not unhealthy. Because the corner stone for the Arab nations toward relationship with Israel is still Palestinian solutions. Israel can hope otherwise, even hope their neighbors already passed Palestinian issue, but recent developments shown otherwise.

The Arab streets still very intune toward to Palestinian issue. Even most Arab are undemocratic regimes, they are still very aware with streets tensions. They don't want this to break away uncontrollably toward another Arab Springs.

So Israel can wish and dream whatever for getting Palestinian out from their neighbors mind for building relationship. However turn out it is not.

Therefore, for decades, the Arab world has demanded of Israel to negotiate something that it cannot really negotiate, with someone that is unable to negotiate - yet they haven't contributed to alleviating any of Palestine's issues, whether political or practical.

Israel have someone that can rally most Palestinian under one banner. However that window move away when Arafat pass away.

Blowback: How Israel Went From Helping Create Hamas to Bombing It

Hamas wants to destroy Israel, right? But as Mehdi Hasan shows in a new video on blowback, Israeli officials admit they helped start the group.

theintercept.com

What the World Can Learn From the History of Hamas

The history of the group is a story of unintended consequences.

time.com

Some in Israel can argue otherwise, however Palestinian duo polar in the leadership, is basically being handled quite well before under 'moderate' Arafat. Even now Israel can't claim to the international world they don't have partner. Israel can talk with PA to further isolate Hamas. In a way retake Israel mistakes that lead to Hamas raise before.

no entitlement to territorial waters. It must come from agreements. Gaza may be a sovereign state in many ways, but Israel never forfeited its recognized rights to the waters around Gaza

Then it is not a sovereign territory. No matter how much you want to picture otherwise. Entitlement to their waters is part of sovereignty. It is back again to this 75 years unresolved conflict. Two state solutions is for each state become entirely sovereign ones. With that there's chance to resolve this conflict. Without that, then there's no chance this conflict going to be resolve. It is going down again to unresolved circles of violence and hates.

The choices is Palestinian and Israel alone. Don't bring the Arab neighbours in to the equations, if no resolve between the two can be met.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1717128714524172410

1. The law of armed conflict, can only mitigate the horrors of war. In this conflict Hamas is the kind of belligerent that cynically exploits these rules by putting civilians under its control at risk & even using them to seek immunity for its military operations, military equipment & military personnel.

2. You don’t have to agree with Guglielmo Verdirame but this is a point to consider. Verdirame, professor of international law at the King’s College London said:

“It does not mean the defensive force has to be equal to the force used in the armed attack. Proportionality means you can use force proportionate to the defensive objective, which is to stop, to repel & prevent further attacks.​

Israel has described its war aims as the destruction of Hamas’s capability. From a legal perspective, these war aims are consistent with proportionality in the law of self-defence, given what Hamas says & does & what Hamas has done & continues to do.”​

 

[Big_Zucchini]

IDF launched a limited raid into northern Gaza overnight and retreated.

This isn't the first such report since the beginning of the war, but as far as I'm aware it is the first documented one.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1717401249199329634

I believe such raids are meant to benefit Israel as follows:

1. Laying the ground and giving its troops a feel of the area.
2. Gather intel.
3. Keep Hamas alert - wears them down.
4. Throws them off on actual incursion.
5. Graduality reduces other regional actors' justification to intervene.
6. Allows setting conditions on the ground while the US prepares its regional forces.

I believe Israel should take additional steps to deconflict in Lebanon - by stepping up attacks in Lebanon. Hezbollah, similar to Hamas, understand power. If resolve to retaliate against it seems to wane, this invigorates them and invites additional attacks. But if the IDF sets the tone on the border, Hezbollah can remain deterred for the duration of the main efforts in Gaza.

For Hezbollah, it is important on one hand to maintain its popularity among the Shia, thus its frequent exchanges with the IDF, but on the other hand it must also preserve its core capabilities to strike in Israel's depth as a local Iranian deterrent. It must also prevent further alienating the local Christian and Sunni populations.

To avoid further deterioration of its relations with the non-Shia Lebanese, it must have a casus belli if the order comes to intervene in the war.

Intervention without a casus belli, and a general understanding in Lebanon that again Iranian orders brought calamity upon them, may set the mood for a future regime change, thus blocking Iran its critical access to Israel's north and much of its access to the east med.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 3: Updates on Operation Swords of Iron

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1717637965218738556

1. In some aspects, Operation Swords of Iron in the Gaza Strip will resemble the battles of Fallujah, Mosul, and Marawi, when state forces cleared non-state militias from an urban area. But I am certain that this battle will be fought with a different tempo by the IDF, when compared to Mosul, and Marawi.

IDF launched a limited raid into northern Gaza overnight and retreated.

This isn't the first such report since the beginning of the war, but as far as I'm aware it is the first documented one.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1717401249199329634

I believe such raids are meant to benefit Israel as follows:

1. Laying the ground and giving its troops a feel of the area.
2. Gather intel.
3. Keep Hamas alert - wears them down.
4. Throws them off on actual incursion.
5. Graduality reduces other regional actors' justification to intervene.
6. Allows setting conditions on the ground while the US prepares its regional forces.

2. Agreed. Raids are an important part of a campaign plan to throw Hamas off-balance. If the defenders in Gaza is well positioned for a raid, they may be out of position for the main attack from another direction. This approach gives the IDF control of tempo but there are downsides for the State. Gantz is reported to have told some Gaza border residents that they might not return home for a year. This will affect 200,000 IDPs in Israel.

3. Sieges are legal, say the UK Ministry of Defence document: “Siege is a legitimate method of warfare … It would be unlawful to besiege an undefended town since it could be occupied without resistance”. As some have noted, Gaza is not undefended. This is why Biden has negotiated with Egypt for aid to enter Gaza (& he also told Israel to allow aid to enter Gaza). A siege of Gaza is legal, as long as the IDF is not engaging in starving the population.

4. If you think collateral damage in Gaza is bad now, wait till you get to day 60 of war.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1717492509851398159

5. Evil must be fought but this strategy is only viable if Team Biden can manage the expectations of the Arab countries. Further:

(a) Berlin’s chief Govt spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit said: “In the current situation, it would not be fair to pretend that peace or a cease-fire is needed...”​

​

(b) Rishi Sunak called for “specific pauses” in the conflict between Israel & Hamas to allow for humanitarian aid.​

​

(c) The Council of Europe reiterated its support for Israeli operations in Gaza and refused to call for a ceasefire. Israel continues to enjoy strong backing in the EU.​

6. If you want to help Hamas to ‘win’, demand a ceasefire. War is horrible & that is why Hamas starting it, harms the people of Gaza. While I may support a pause for some humanitarian aid to get to certain areas in Gaza, it is different from asking for a ceasefire.

7.“What we are seeing now in Gaza is what is termed a ‘Reconnaissance Pull,’” said Mick Mulroy, formerly a top Pentagon official for the Middle East. “This tactic is applied to large unit formations in which small elements locate & rapidly exploit enemy weakness. Once the weakness, seams & gaps are discovered, they bring in the parts of the main body of the assault.”

8. Israel has rebuffed foreign calls for a humanitarian ceasefire, saying this would serve to benefit Hamas and that aid was available in designated zones in the southern Gaza Strip.

9. “This is an infantry fight,” Gen. (ret.) Frank McKenzie said. “A lot is going to be put on people on the ground, not just on the front lines, but behind the front lines, ensuring that you are secure [&] that Hamas is not going to pop up in your rear and attack your command posts, your medical aid stations & your all your logistics elements.”

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Well, the UN resolution calling for “truce” was adopted by 120 votes for, 14 against, while 45 abstained.

Gaza crisis: General Assembly adopts resolution calling for ‘humanitarian truce’, civilian protection

The United Nations General Assembly on Friday adopted a major resolution on the Gaza crisis, calling for an “immediate, durable and sustained humanitarian truce leading to a cessation of hostilities.”

news.un.org

It probably couldn’t have gone better for Hamas. The Canadian attempt to amend the resolution to include condemnation of Hamas terrorist acts and a call for release of all hostages also failed.

This is a Reuters article from a week ago that discusses the US veto on the Brazilian resolution and potential consequences that appear to have been materializing so far:

US veto at UN to shield Israel could weaken its Ukraine rallying cry

U.S. credibility rallying support for issues like Ukraine may have been compromised, some diplomats said, after Washington this week blocked United Nations action to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza from the war between Israel and Hamas.

www.reuters.com

It is most likely, in my opinion, that as things evolve in regards to the ongoing Israeli operation, some (many?) of those who abstained will be changing their vote to aye on the next resolution, which will come without a doubt

There were also reports earlier today, citing some US officials “in-the-know” that Biden administration is pressuring Israel to reconsider the full ground invasion because they do not believe they would be able to eliminate Hamas, it would be counterproductive to hostages release negotiations, would result in large casualties of Gaza civilians and Israeli soldiers, as well as lead to a wider war in the region:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/27/us-urging-israel-rethinkg-gaza-ground-invasion/

Instead, they are calling for precision strikes and “surgical” raids by the special forces.

Hamas official(s) had visited Russia to talk about the release of (foreign) hostages and evacuation of Russian and other foreign citizens from Gaza. Hamas, on their end, claimed that they discussed “Zionist aggression against Gaza and ways to stop Zionist crimes supported by the United States and the West”:

Россия провела переговоры с делегацией ХАМАС в Москве – DW – 26.10.2023

В МИД РФ заверили, что речь на встрече с представителями ХАМАС шла об освобождения иностранных заложников в секторе Газа. Израиль назвал приглашение ХАМАС в Москву "позорным шагом".

amp.dw.com

There have also been reports after the aforementioned meeting, according to the Palestinian ambassador to Russia, that they are currently working on the plan to evacuate Russian citizens as well as others from Gaza via Rafah checkpoint. The report indicated that out of over 900 people awaiting evacuation 500 are Russian citizens.

Посол Палестины заявил о разработке проекта по эвакуации россиян из сектора Газа

Посол Палестины в России Абдель Хафиз Нофаль заявил о разработке проекта по эвакуации россиян из сектора Газа. «Сейчас пытаемся разработать алгоритм, который позволит эвакуировать граждан, когда Израиль предоставит гуманитарный коридор», — отметил дипломат. Вывоз будет производиться в...

m.lenta.ru

 

[Big_Zucchini]

It is most likely, in my opinion, that as things evolve in regards to the ongoing Israeli operation, some (many?) of those who abstained will be changing their vote to aye on the next resolution, which will come without a doubt

It matters very little. UNGA (BUNGA) is an aimless body that lacks authority. It's merely a platform to express one's opinions. That is why I do not think that those who abstain right now will necessarily shift to a "yes" vote later on. Of course, pressure will mount to be dovish, but this is also an opportunity for the west to understand that the Israel-Iran-Palestine conflict is connected to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and by extension the North-South korea as well as China-Taiwan conflicts.

It is also an opportunity to root out radical Islam in Europe - something which is of great threat even right now, and hopefully in the future we can understand how to fight the radical populist movement.

Many in Europe and the US see how the radical elements show themselves. I assume therefore that these elements will more or less cancel out the gradual inclination to ceasefire calls.

 

[phreeky]

It is also an opportunity to root out radical Islam in Europe - something which is of great threat even right now, and hopefully in the future we can understand how to fight the radical populist movement.

Radical *anything* is a problem around the world. I think the US in recent years has demonstrated that it's not restricted to any one group.

Many in Europe and the US see how the radical elements show themselves. I assume therefore that these elements will more or less cancel out the gradual inclination to ceasefire calls.

I'm afraid emotion has clouded the judgement of both proportion and long term strategic goals. I think once the next generation of Palestinians have grown up with missing family members (let's say in 10-15 years time), Israel will have an even bigger challenge on its hands. You could argue this has happened in the past, will happen again, and will eventually get to a point that it is unmanageable. So even taking a view that only Israel's concerns matter, I still think that the long term strategic position will be worse at the end of this.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1718314956733469102

The Gaza siege plan
**
Siege of Gaza, suffocation of Hamas operatives in tunnels, and occupation of a security strip inside Gaza until Hamas surrenders, the demilitarization of the strip and the release of the abductees.
*Not to act in the way that Hamas expects us to act and prepared for*

*Publicizing the siege plan scares and stresses Hamas leaders and will be a catalyst to bring about results*
**
base assumption:
- For 15 years, Hamas prepared a vast tunnel system, an underground state, precisely against the entry of Israeli forces.

- When Hamas carried out Black Sabbath, it was exactly expecting a "cast lead" style ground response and the other operations.

- Hamas is counting on us entering every bunker and every tunnel with tweezers in order to exact a heavy blood price from us.

- Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas want us to invest many forces deep in the Gaza Strip so that we have fewer forces available for another campaign, in the north and also in Judea and Samaria and more.

- Hamas wants us to get involved during the entry, which will force us to cause heavy collateral damage of killing Gazan children, etc., so that the world will force us to stop.

- Hamas has probably removed many assets, including leadership and commanders to the south of the Gaza Strip, leaving simple activists in the north of the Gaza Strip to quarrel with us.
-
- ** We must not act according to the expectation of Hamas **
**
The siege plan for Hamas in northern Gaza:
1. To surprise *and not go deep into the Gaza Strip as Hamas expects us to do*, but to impose a complete siege on the north of the Gaza Strip, dry up and suffocate the Hamas terrorists in the tunnels until they are forced to leave.
2. To create a new security strip 2 km deep into the territory of the strip along our entire border, a permanent strip. This is through the use of massive firepower and ground forces, and engineering. Imagine bulldozers simply leveling the area.
3. Continuously use firepower on Hamas all over the Strip. Israel conducts a continuous series of targeted ground operations with enormous firepower, to separate neighborhood from neighborhood from Hamas. There is no need to hunt down every Hamasnik in a hole and a tunnel.
4. The residents of Gaza stay in the southern half of the Strip or outside the Strip until the end of the war: when Hamas disarms unilaterally and releases all the hostages. This, of course, according to international law, to preserve their lives. Countries around the world can take in the refugees—temporarily, of course—until Hamas surrenders and the war ends. Between 6 months and 5 years.
5. In the south of the Gaza Strip, humanitarian corridors are allowed, and we allow (but do not give ourselves): water, food, medicine. This is as required by international law.
6. Do not allow any drop of fuel to enter the entire strip. Without fuel there are no tunnels because there is no ventilation and no lighting. Every drop that enters the Gaza Strip goes to Hamas. Fuel = fighting. So not a bit.
7. Strategic patience: make the passing time work in our favor. We have all the time in the world.
8. After initial ground operations, 250,000 military personnel must be released home as soon as possible, in order to release economic-civil pressure, to restore the economy and life to order. We must not just stress ourselves artificially just because we called up 350,000 reservists.
9. Any country in the world that expresses pain over the situation of the refugees in the south is invited to temporarily host refugees (Scotland, Egypt, Turkey, etc.).
10. Avoid collateral damage as much as possible, which could interrupt the Israeli operation before achieving Hamas's surrender.

**
Advantages of the program:
- Trickery and surprise: this is exactly the opposite of what Hamas has been preparing for for a decade. Contrary to what he expects us to do. Hamas believes that we have a breathing space of 4-5 weeks inside Gaza and then we will leave, as has always happened in the last decade.

- Dehydrates Hamas operatives. Imagine "Muhammad" a Hamas operative who is currently waiting for us in the tunnel, alert and ready. Under siege, he will be forced to wait for months in his humid tunnel, wet, hungry, depressed, and when the fuel runs out, the tunnel will go dark, and there will be no oxygen: his family may be in the mud in the south of the Gaza Strip or in Egypt or Belgium: what am I doing here?

- transfers the pressure from Israel to Hamas; Passing the lever from Hamas to us. Right now all the leverage is with them. the abductees They will play and play us. This thing turns the bowl and basically the lever goes to us.

- The Hamas leadership will find itself in a dilemma: either Hamas or the state of Gaza. If Sinuar does not disarm he will go down in history as the one who destroyed his country and brought a historical disaster on his people.

- Dramatically reduces the chances of Hezbollah involvement: a. They have no specific trigger to go to war. B. Israeli forces are kept fresh and free to strike in Lebanon.

- A sustainable political line of defense: until the Israelis do not return home, neither will the Gazans return home. Everyone is going home together: Israeli hostages are returning home to Israel, families from the Gaza enclave will return only with the disappearance of Hamas, and the residents of Gaza will also be able to return because the war is over and the danger to their lives has passed.

- The program was tested by DBA experts and meets all the tests of international law.

This is the strategy from Israel to get a read on what might be coming — it is translated from Hebrew from Bennett’s post. From a strategic perspective, hard to implement, no clear metrics for success, & so on. But the 2 km buffer zone is badly needed.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Radical *anything* is a problem around the world. I think the US in recent years has demonstrated that it's not restricted to any one group.

That's what I said. After rooting out radical Islam, which is a direct threat, the radical populist movements can be dealt with. They just require a more complex approach that will test western democratic values and bureaucracy.

 

[OPSSG]

Inspiring story of the bravery of IDF's Bedouin trackers in fighting terrorists.

In the photo: Lieutenant K

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1718534933948301781

The trackers Lt. Col. M. and Lt. H.:

‎Hamas directed the main occupation effort on the morning of the opening of the campaign to the headquarters of the Gaza Division in Camp Ra'im.

‎From the pile of fragmentary reports that the division commander was able to send over the communications network, the trackers realized that the fence had been breached in at least five locations.

‎They went out into the field to advance the face of evil and took part in the heroic battles of the IDF soldiers for the defense of Camp Raim, which resulted in about 300 bodies of enemy fighters that remained scattered around and inside the base.

‎When the trackers Lt. Col. M. and Lt. H. noticed the white Toyotas of the terrorists speeding on the roads, they realized that they had to protect the main entrance gate in order to give a critical stay to the wives and children of the division officers who were staying at the base on Shabbat, to enter the fortified Khadar Milhama (HQ) and be saved.

‎At this point, Lieutenant H was already injured in his hand and after having eliminated many terrorists in the battles he had managed until then.

‎His commander, Lt. Col. M., came up with an idea:
‎Lieutenant H will take off his uniform and with the help of the familiar Gaza dialect he will pretend to be a terrorist, will call the terrorists attacking the Sheg from the hideouts from which they were conducting fire to join him, thereby exposing them to effective fire from his commander from the side.

‎And so Lieutenant H did indeed do.

‎He took off his uniform, stood up, went towards the area from which the terrorists invaded and began to call them in Gazan Arabic "come to me, come to me", while beckoning them with his hand to join him.

‎Many terrorists were tempted to believe him and rose to join him in infiltrating the evil camp. Lt. Col. M. waited for this, sniping at every terrorist who raised his head, until with this method the entire force of terrorists who attacked the division headquarters in the same direction was eliminated.

‎Later in the morning, Lt. Col. M. and Lt. H. rescued 16 more young men who fled the party area when they caught them, gave them shelter and killed dozens more terrorists in battles that lasted for hours.

‎***
‎The IDF's Bedouin trackers are the successors of the late Lt. Col. Abd Hadar - Amos Yarkoni by his Hebrew name - a decorated and courageous Bedouin warrior who, close to the establishment of the IDF, established the tracker system.

‎Words written at the time by the poet Haim Hefer about Amos Yarkoni, are also appropriate for Lt. Col. M. and Lt. K. H.:

‎"Amos Yarkuni - he was Abd Khadar, he was not a mercenary in our army,
‎He loved his country with every inch of his sinews and every inch of his scarred limbs,
‎And his subordinates followed him in the desert and believed in his subtle senses,
‎A broken thorn, a camel's tracks, a moved stone, the smell of a campfire from afar,
‎He was a son of the earth, a brother to the arid hills and to those who have righteous wells,
‎A brother to the systems of Israel and the one who recorded several chapters in its chronicles,
‎And no one will take that away from him, a wonderful and unique warrior..."

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Czech Defense Minister calls to withdraw from the UN.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1718403832240034067

This is not unprecedented. Members can leave or defund some UN agencies without harming their status in others, and it happened in the past.
Bodies like the UNESCO, UNHRC, UNHCR, UNGA for example, are highly politicized bodies that consequently have lost their authority and therefore purpose.

@OPSSG

When the trackers Lt. Col. M. and Lt. H. noticed the white Toyotas of the terrorists speeding on the roads, they realized that they had to protect the main entrance gate in order to give a critical stay to the wives and children of the division officers who were staying at the base on Shabbat, to enter the fortified HML and be saved.

HML is a mistranslation of an Israeli abbreviation "Khadar Milhama". It means HQ.
Since HQs are often fortified, especially for regional units, they're the go-to bomb shelters.

 

[OPSSG]

The key differences between the battles of Mosul and Falluja versus Gaza by Arwa Damon.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1718330954530390220

1. ISIS was in Mosul for 3 years. Hamas has been in Gaza for 30+. What Hamas has under Gaza makes what ISIS had under Mosul look like a little mouse maze.

2. In Falluja civilians were able to flee & many of them did in the lead up to the battle. It was very much a ton of bombs, artillery & whatever the US had at its disposal, street to street soldier’s vs armed militant when US ground forces went in. Civilian death toll : 500-800. In Mosul civilians were unable to flee. ISIS was literally holding them at gunpoint. Mosul’s civilian death toll was between 9-11,000.

3. Neither Mosul nor Falluja was put under the sort of siege by a nation state like Gaza. There was no deliberate cutting off of aid. We did not hear of Drs having to do amputations w/o anesthesia on kids. or children w/ 50% burns not being able to get basic pain killers.

4. In the case of Mosul, when an area was bombed and/or ground forces went in, forcing the armed group out, civilians were able to flee to “safe” areas. Ie They were able to leave the battleground behind. In the case of Gaza, civilians cannot leave the battleground.

5. In the case of both Falluja & Mosul there was a deliberate “escape” route for fighters to be able to flee. They were able to “squirt” out until they ended up in more manageable numbers, in terrain that was not as familiar to them. Not a Gaza option.

6. Neither Falluja nor Mosul had the hostage dynamic. The 200+ hostages are feeling every single one of those bombs & Israel is at grave risk of killing its own. Its rather telling that the US is “urging” slow down to allow for negotiations & that Israel is moving ahead in Gaza.

7. Ideology. Falluja was against Al Qaeda in Iraq, Mosul was against ISIS (what AQ would eventually become). There are differences in the “core” of what drove/drives that ideology and what Hamas emerged out of. Hamas emerged 30 years ago as a response to Israeli occupation.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

In the case of both Falluja & Mosul there was a deliberate “escape” route for fighters to be able to flee. They were able to “squirt” out until they ended up in more manageable numbers, in terrain that was not as familiar to them. Not a Gaza option.

This is observed in Gaza — the north-south split. Many members of Hamas have relocated to the south, probably believing it to be much more defensible given the large influx of civilians there.

 

[OPSSG]

This is observed in Gaza — the north-south split.

I suspect that is part of the IDF plan but let’s not talk about it till after the execution of the plan is obvious.

 

[OPSSG]

HML is a mistranslation of an Israeli abbreviation "Khadar Milhama". It means HQ.
Since HQs are often fortified, especially for regional units, they're the go-to bomb shelters.

Done. I have edited the post.

 

[peterAustralia]

In the media and elsewhere there has been some talk of a two state solution. However on the ground this is unrealistic, I would use the word nonsense.

I can recall the journalist Robert Fisk, going on TV twenty years ago and saying that a 2 state solution will not work on the ground. The reason there are too many Israeli settlers in the West Bank, and any Palestinian state in the West Bank would be a collection of small fragmented areas. Since then it has only got much worse, I think the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank is over 450,000 and growing. They are not going to leave.

Any Palestinian state would be so fragmented and small, it would not be geographically contiguous, just a collection of small enclaves separated by Israeli checkpoints.

The two state solution is in my opinion just a talking point politicians come up with over and over, as a way of addressing the problem without having to do anything... just say the words,, we support a two state solution... nothing happens,, move on...

What will happen in Gaza,, a lot of people will die,, my guess 50.000, after than the number gets too politically high and Israel will withdraw. Hamas will regroup,, recruit thousands of new fighters with ease,,, and in a few years back to square one again.

The only solution in my opinion is to grant Gaza independence. Forget about the West Bank, that is a lost cause.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I can recall the journalist Robert Fisk, going on TV twenty years ago and saying that a 2 state solution will not work on the ground. The reason there are too many Israeli settlers in the West Bank, and any Palestinian state in the West Bank would be a collection of small fragmented areas. Since then it has only got much worse, I think the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank is over 450,000 and growing. They are not going to leave.

This has nothing to do with the current thread, I will answer in the appropriate one:

Middle East Defence & Security

Israel is being torn from within. The sitting coalition vowed to cancel democracy, while the opposition organizes demonstrations against the move. The people are unprecedentedly divided, money is being pulled from Israel, economical, defense, and other establishments are striking, and a sense...

www.defencetalk.com

What will happen in Gaza,, a lot of people will die,, my guess 50.000, after than the number gets too politically high and Israel will withdraw. Hamas will regroup,, recruit thousands of new fighters with ease,,, and in a few years back to square one again.

There aren't as many Hamas and PIJ members as you think, and the IDF has substantially improved the militant-to-civilian ratio in the last 15 years. Regardless, after the hospital incident and the massive documentation of Hamas faking death numbers and footage, I don't think the west will be particularly attentive to whatever numbers they say. If the death toll in the hospital incident was an order of magnitude lower than Hamas's claims, then it's easy to assume the same for their current claims, especially since that's probably the only case in which Hamas claims could be directly compared to actual numbers.

The only solution in my opinion is to grant Gaza independence. Forget about the West Bank, that is a lost cause.

It was done. The result was 1,400 brutally raped, tortured, and murdered, and over 230 kidnapped.
I recommend to think outside the box. But if you want to discuss a solution for it, I'm all for, even if I do not have any concrete proposal. But again, it's best discussed in the other thread.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Shani Luk, one of the most famous cases of Hamas's rampage on October 7th, was found dead. Likely during the ground operation in Gaza.
In the footage Hamas posted (which anyone can search on their own, I'm not posting gore here), it could be inferred that she was already dead when her body was paraded. Regardless, Hamas threatened early in the war that they would execute the hostages if Israel proceeds with its strikes on Hamas. It is also possible that she was killed during the Israeli attack, but it is less likely as she was likely found in an intact building.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1718921841270485152

Footage of a Merkava 4 tank in Gaza. The tank could be seen firing at a car. I have yet to find a translation of what the people are saying.
I don't know who was in that car, but if you're driving with a vehicle toward a tank - you'll be blasted. Simple as that. VBIEDs are a real enough threat.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1718900377280512176

The footage was geolocated as seen below (expanded upon in the tweet). It is likely the tank was stationed there to lock down Gaza city. It is also likely that anyone driving north into the locked down area is not going to be a civilian, as these were evacuated over the last 3 weeks into southern Gaza.
What this also tells us is that the IDF is not conducting night-time raids anymore, but is operating in daytime. First such footage actually came in yesterday.


IDF releases some footage from today's operation as well as night-time footage:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1718864835289514253

 

[peterAustralia]

The figure I gave was for total deaths, not Hamas fighters.. because civilians and belligerents are intermixed, civilian deaths are very high. As of now total deaths in Gaza are at 8000 dead and climbing... Reasonable to assume it goes on for many more weeks.. add to that the ground element which will be more intense.. once it is all over there will be a number.. that is my take on what it will be.. history will prove me right or wrong.. happy to take off forum

 

[Big_Zucchini]

The figure I gave was for total deaths

Same as I. Hamas lies about casualty numbers in every aspect.