Hamas-Israeli War 2023

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
IAF demonstrates a capability that was perfected over many years, to utilize simple precision guided glide bombs (JDAM, SPICE, Lizard etc), to destroy specific floors inside a building, rather than collapsing it entirely.

This allows the IAF to strike targets that would otherwise be untouchable due to high potential for civilians.

It is of course very easy to just select the building's center, wait for the CCRP, and let it fly. But to strike like that with a glide bomb that obviously has no power of its own and therefore has a very limited energetic envelope, is a very difficult task. This requires careful pre-mission planning on the precise altitude, indicated air speed, heading, and angle of attack, at the release point.

The IAF uses, among other munitions, the Spice family, which includes a powered version called Spice 250 ER. However, to strike buildings, larger munitions are required and it is not clear whether the IAF even has the Spice 250 ER, therefore this is still a technological challenge.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Hamas shows how they extract water pipes from the ground to use for production of rockets:

These pipelines transport Israeli and were paid for primarily by the EU.

Two casualties among over 1,300 (confirmed so far) are Eyal Waldman's daughter and her partner.

Hamas's policies intend to exacerbate Gazans' poverty at any cost, leading me to believe that cutting off water not only does not deter them, but they believe it even benefits them. Time will tell.

Either way, Gaza has its own fresh water sources to sustain its population, so we'll see how much effect it really has.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
1️⃣Israel is probably one of the least ethnically homogenous nations on earth. That's not what we're striving for. And Israel has plenty of Arabs that we don't intend on hurting or infringing on their rights any time soon, many of whom are doing vital work that is well recognized.
You have plenty of Arabs that are doing vital work and are well recognized but your proposed solution for Palestinians is forced deportation. You don't see the contradiction? The argument of "we don't do ethnic cleansing, just because we're forcibly deporting this nationality, because look at these other groups of people we left alone" is so silly as to not be worth discussing. The accusation isn't that Israel is trying to build an ethno-state. The accusation is that the specific plan you proposed constitutes ethnic cleansing, not just technically but also substantively. It's not the worst one could do, but it's an ugly move that won't be well received by much of the world. When Russia decides to mass-deport Ukrainians that don't want to assimilate in Zaporozhye, they will point to Israel and say "they did it, so can we". And they will be right (in that they will be wrong in the exact same way).

2️⃣It is about keeping the threat away from our front door. Iran is one of Palestine's largest supporters. I'm sure if a proposal came, they'd gladly accept.
Iran wants a threat on Israel's doorstep. Why would they accept a solution that removes that threat? Moreover, you think Iran's theocracy will give away some of their territory to form an independent Palestinian state?

5️⃣But Gaza can now only rely on food and water from their own fields and aquifers, and Egypt's supplies - all of which are unavailable because Hamas did not care enough about running its natural resources properly, and kept antagonizing Egypt.
Unlike many I don't have an immediate problem with Israel closing the border to Gaza including supplies of food and water.. From where I sit, Gaza is an independent state (with limited recognition, like say Abkhazia). They attacked their neighbor in an act of war. During said attack they committed multiple war crimes and what amount of acts of state terror against Israeli civilians. Israel absolutely has a right to defend itself, including stomping Hamas into the ground. If the Palestinian government failed to adequately prepare for this possibility, that's their problem. The solution for Palestinian civilians is to flee the war zone and make use of refugee law in neighboring states who have whatever obligations they would normally have under international laws to accept refugees in a time of war.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Civilians in Gaza don't have that option at the moment, & I think that few had it before the war. Nobody's letting them leave.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Civilians in Gaza don't have that option at the moment, & I think that few had it before the war. Nobody's letting them leave.
Sorry, I was under the impression Israel had issued a statement encouraging them to leave, and presumably was willing to take them as refugees. So then what's the plan for the Gaza civilians?
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Sorry, I was under the impression Israel had issued a statement encouraging them to leave, and presumably was willing to take them as refugees. So then what's the plan for the Gaza civilians?
What I've seen reported is that Israel has advised civilians to leave certain areas of Gaza, & directed them to other areas inside Gaza.

I've seen absolutely no reports of Israel offering to take in Gazan civilians, let along doing anything to make it possible, such as setting up reception facilities for filtering out refugees from would-be suicide bombers & terrorists, & opening border crossings.

IDF instructs Gazans on evacuation routes, while many find shelter in UNRWA schools
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
What I've seen reported is that Israel has advised civilians to leave certain areas of Gaza, & directed them to other areas inside Gaza.

I've seen absolutely no reports of Israel offering to take in Gazan civilians, let along doing anything to make it possible, such as setting up reception facilities for filtering out refugees from would-be suicide bombers & terrorists, & opening border crossings.

IDF instructs Gazans on evacuation routes, while many find shelter in UNRWA schools
Would they not be considered prima facie refugees, and be entitled to not be forced to return to Gaza as long as the war is continuing? I'm not 100% up to speed on this but I was under the impression that populations displaced or fleeing a war are entitled to a generalized presumptive refugee status in the first country of safety. That's why Turkey had to accept Syrian refugees.

 
Would they not be considered prima facie refugees, and be entitled to not be forced to return to Gaza as long as the war is continuing? I'm not 100% up to speed on this but I was under the impression that populations displaced or fleeing a war are entitled to a generalized presumptive refugee status in the first country of safety. That's why Turkey had to accept Syrian refugees.
Maybe by international law, but who will let them in? Certainly not Israel. And not Egypt either, as it would appear, given the current economic situation in Egypt. They have nowhere to go, and that is even if Hamas let them leave. There is talk of the UN opening humanitarian corridors through Egypt, but that will probably not include the option for refugees to leave in large numbers.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Would they not be considered prima facie refugees, and be entitled to not be forced to return to Gaza as long as the war is continuing? I'm not 100% up to speed on this but I was under the impression that populations displaced or fleeing a war are entitled to a generalized presumptive refugee status in the first country of safety. That's why Turkey had to accept Syrian refugees.

Basically 3 exits from Gaza exist: via Israel, via Egypt, and via… swimming the sea. Israel will not let them out for obvious reasons. Egypt (and Hamas) never let them move freely prior and closed the border completely once the war began. The reason they are stating for not letting people leave is interesting.


Swimming is the only option. It’s quite a swim though. Hence the answer to the question “what’s the plan for the Gaza civilians?” appears to be that there isn’t one.

There are UN “schools” and other places where people take cover (some 130-150K, so about 5% of the population?).

This is also part of the plan:

In its series of videos addressed to the civilian population of Gaza on Sunday, an IDF spokesperson explained that “the operations of terrorist organizations have forced the IDF to act against them in the area where you live. The IDF is not interested in hurting you or your families. Therefore, in order to preserve your safety, you must leave your place of residence.”

The spokesperson then proceeded to show maps of specific neighborhoods of various localities along the 41 km (25-mile) long strip, giving instructions to residents on where to evacuate.

Residents of the al-Maqousi, Beit Hanoun, and Shejaiya areas around Gaza City were directed to the city’s center. Gazans living around the al-Bureij and Maghazi refugee camps located in the center of the coastal enclave were instructed to find shelter inside the camps, while those living in the towns of Abasan al-Kabira and Abasan al-Saghira in the south-center of the strip were told to seek refuge inside Khan Younis, the second largest urban area in the Strip after Gaza City. Those living in the southern end of the strip were instructed to find shelter in the Rafah city, along the Egypt border.



Edit: I see I posted the same article as swerve. My apologies.

Edit 2: To this point:

Unlike many I don't have an immediate problem with Israel closing the border to Gaza including supplies of food and water.. From where I sit, Gaza is an independent state (with limited recognition, like say Abkhazia). They attacked their neighbor in an act of war. During said attack they committed multiple war crimes and what amount of acts of state terror against Israeli civilians. Israel absolutely has a right to defend itself, including stomping Hamas into the ground. If the Palestinian government failed to adequately prepare for this possibility, that's their problem.
Israel controls what gets into Gaza:

The movement of people and goods — including food and water — has been controlled under an Israeli blockade since 2007. Israel withdrew its military forces from the territory under international pressure in 2005 but has said it needed to maintain the blockade to protect Israelis from Hamas.

"Israel controls everything that goes in and out of the Gaza Strip," said Lynk, who visited Gaza periodically while he worked for the UN in Jerusalem.



So, while I and certainly most others agree on the right to defend itself, the situation is pretty complex and I have no idea what the solution is.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
Would they not be considered prima facie refugees, and be entitled to not be forced to return to Gaza as long as the war is continuing? I'm not 100% up to speed on this but I was under the impression that populations displaced or fleeing a war are entitled to a generalized presumptive refugee status in the first country of safety. That's why Turkey had to accept Syrian refugees.

Before they could be forced to return, they have to get out. How? It's a very small territory. The entire border has a fence, apart from a few closely guarded crossing points (with strong gates) & the holes Hamas made in it last Saturday. Going through the fence into Israel takes you straight into a war zone, with an army alert for incursions. There aren't many boats, IIRC, & Israel controls marine access. The land border is only 62 km long (Israel 51 km & Egypt 11 km) plus 41 km of coast.

Turkey wasn't at war along the whole border, & there's a hell of a lot more of it - 911 km.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Before they could be forced to return, they have to get out. How? It's a very small territory. The entire border has a fence, apart from a few closely guarded crossing points (with strong gates) & the holes Hamas made in it last Saturday. Going through the fence into Israel takes you straight into a war zone, with an army alert for incursions. There aren't many boats, IIRC, & Israel controls marine access. The land border is only 62 km long (Israel 51 km & Egypt 11 km) plus 41 km of coast.

Turkey wasn't at war along the whole border, & there's a hell of a lot more of it - 911 km.
Presumably if tens of thousands head for the border, there's not much stopping that short of wholesale slaughter which, if intentional, would constitute a war crime, and if done with the intent of preventing them from entering Israel would in my understanding constitute an act of state terrorism.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Going through the fence into Israel takes you straight into a war zone, with an army alert for incursions.
My understanding is that approaching the fence on a good day is not the best idea. After this has begun, there was a media release that indicated anyone approaching the fence will be shot, as per IDF (doubt I can find the source for it now, but common sense suggests that this is reality).
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
I was looking for the type of weapons and rockets in particular Hamas uses and has access to and was actually quite amazed at what they allegedly have access to and are able to produce themselves. The article is from a couple of years ago and is behind the paywall:


But there is a tweet referenced in the article that basically sums it up:
Since some do not have a twitter account, here is an image:



Here is a visual representation of some their ranges and warning times that was posted in one of the comments to the tweet above:



Here is the arsenal of the Islamic Jihad as per the same author:


Thought others may find it interesting as well.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
You have plenty of Arabs that are doing vital work and are well recognized but your proposed solution for Palestinians is forced deportation. You don't see the contradiction? The argument of "we don't do ethnic cleansing, just because we're forcibly deporting this nationality, because look at these other groups of people we left alone" is so silly as to not be worth discussing. The accusation isn't that Israel is trying to build an ethno-state. The accusation is that the specific plan you proposed constitutes ethnic cleansing, not just technically but also substantively. It's not the worst one could do, but it's an ugly move that won't be well received by much of the world. When Russia decides to mass-deport Ukrainians that don't want to assimilate in Zaporozhye, they will point to Israel and say "they did it, so can we". And they will be right (in that they will be wrong in the exact same way).
I do not see a contradiction - because there are people of the same ethnicity and even for some national identity, all related to Israel, and being parts of groups with very different relations with Israel, sometimes opposites of one another.
You have Arabs in Gaza commiting terror attacks. You have Arabs in Judea and Samaria doing terror attacks lite, plus many more that are much more interested in their day to day life. There are also Arabs in Israel that are hostile to Israel. Those that are not too accepting but assimilate well. Those that distinguish themselves but happily serve in the IDF. And those you cannot distinguish from the average Israeli.
So there is nothing related to ethnicity, nationality, or whatever.

Next door you have a population that's incredibly hostile to you, that only wants to kill you. They attack you but you win every time, only losing a few dozen troops, a couple billion dollars, and a month of stability every 2 years. You believe you can contain the situation. One day they murder 1,300 of your civilians in a single day and take no stops in committing the worst atrocities conceivable to man, and even celebrate them for the world to see. You now have a population that demands "never again".
What do you do?

Iran wants a threat on Israel's doorstep. Why would they accept a solution that removes that threat? Moreover, you think Iran's theocracy will give away some of their territory to form an independent Palestinian state?
The natural law of FAFO tells us that there have to be some consequences. They and the Arab world should be publicly offered this solution, and put them in a dilemma in which they either anger their citizens by refusing, or risk their internal stability by accepting.

Sorry, I was under the impression Israel had issued a statement encouraging them to leave, and presumably was willing to take them as refugees. So then what's the plan for the Gaza civilians?
No policy was released for the public yet, but I doubt the IDF will pay serious consideration to future accommodation of Palestinians if it comes in conflict with its task of eliminating Hamas figures and infrastructure.

Israel controls what gets into Gaza:

The movement of people and goods — including food and water — has been controlled under an Israeli blockade since 2007. Israel withdrew its military forces from the territory under international pressure in 2005 but has said it needed to maintain the blockade to protect Israelis from Hamas.

"Israel controls everything that goes in and out of the Gaza Strip," said Lynk, who visited Gaza periodically while he worked for the UN in Jerusalem.


https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6990923
So, while I and certainly most others agree on the right to defend itself, the situation is pretty complex and I have no idea what the solution is.
Do Poland and Lithuania hold Kaliningrad under blockade? If they do, then why is none talking about it? If they don't, why expect of Israel something you won't expect of them?
I certainly don't see anyone complaining about Poland and Lithuania not providing Russia resources.

I was looking for the type of weapons and rockets in particular Hamas uses and has access to and was actually quite amazed at what they allegedly have access to and are able to produce themselves. The article is from a couple of years ago and is behind the paywall:
They have a large variety because they gather the building materials from industrial components and actual construction equipment. Some they manage to smuggle, unfortunately. But the biggest threat is the amount and type of know-how they can acquire via remote communication with Iran and its own suppliers. There's a lot to be done with civilian equipment if you really don't care about popularity.
How soon do you think Gaza will get modern cars with collision warning systems? Well take that answer, add maybe 2-3 years, and you got the first Gazan missile with a simple radar. They're pretty good radars too - working in the same band as the Brimstone's.


IDF seems to be taking some extra measures in the Judea and Samaria region, the usual policing along with, what I believe to be efforts to show presence and activity to deter Judea and Samaria Palestinians from taking advantage of the situation for their own terror attacks.
In this instance, a Pizzeria put up an image of a holocaust survivor that was kidnapped by Hamas, which promptly led to the IDF removing said Pizzeria from the image.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Interesting comparison of numbers between the IAF's bombing campaign and the US-led campaign against ISIS between 2014-2019.

The caveat here is that if you know targets are more dispersed and you know it'll be a protracted campaign, you plan for a lower tempo to begin with.

Israeli minister of propaganda (I kid you not) Galit Distel Atbrian resigned after releasing exactly 0 propaganda material this entire year and deafening silence since the start of the war. Well, silence plus 1 accusation of a very popular frontline journalist who interviewed many survivors, of somehow starting this war.

Mr Segev says there are more incoming but I'll wait and see for myself. For now it's clear - there is no way for the ruling government to survive after this war.

I love TWZ's articles. Haven't had the opportunity to read this yet but I'll leave it here for everyone else:
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I do not see a contradiction - because there are people of the same ethnicity and even for some national identity, all related to Israel, and being parts of groups with very different relations with Israel, sometimes opposites of one another.
You have Arabs in Gaza commiting terror attacks. You have Arabs in Judea and Samaria doing terror attacks lite, plus many more that are much more interested in their day to day life. There are also Arabs in Israel that are hostile to Israel. Those that are not too accepting but assimilate well. Those that distinguish themselves but happily serve in the IDF. And those you cannot distinguish from the average Israeli.
So there is nothing related to ethnicity, nationality, or whatever.
This takes us pretty far down the political rabbit hole. I will leave it at one final point, feel free to respond or not. If it's not about ethnicity or nationality, if some Palestinians don't hate Israel and merely have differing political views, how do you separate them out? Do you at all? Again, if some quantity of Jews were inside Gaza do they also get deported? I noticed you didn't answer that. I wonder why. I think pretending it's not about nationality or ethnicity is silly. You have an enclave of Palestinians hostile to Israel, arguable with some reason for it. They're hostage to terrorism, economically the area couldn't turn into anything but a giant ghetto, and their only authority is somewhere in between a gang and a terrorist organization combining the worst features of both. Because sorting it out properly would be difficult and would require Israel to significantly compromise its identity as a Jewish state, the proposed solution is mass deportation. And this isn't ethnic cleansing because other Arabs elsewhere in Israel are ok. Again I point to my example above. If Russia decided to mass-deport ethnic Ukrainians from Melitopol', and then pointed to ethnic Ukrainians in Krasnodar or Moscow or Primoskiy Kray not being deported, would that be any less ethnic cleansing? I think the issue is obvious. The solution isn't.

Next door you have a population that's incredibly hostile to you, that only wants to kill you. They attack you but you win every time, only losing a few dozen troops, a couple billion dollars, and a month of stability every 2 years. You believe you can contain the situation. One day they murder 1,300 of your civilians in a single day and take no stops in committing the worst atrocities conceivable to man, and even celebrate them for the world to see. You now have a population that demands "never again".
What do you do?
Is Gaza Israel or a separate state? Answer that and we can start to unravel this issue. If it's a separate state, stop trying to solve their problems, and simply deal with them the same way you deal with any aggressive neighbor. But also give them proper independence and let them make their own way internationally. They won't be friendly to Israel, likely not ever. But they might not be a permanent failed state either. If it's not a separate state then start treating them like Israeli citizens, be they Jewish or not. You're presumably not trying to build an ethno-state, so don't. If it was me, I would answer the question, and act accordingly. You can only keep the lid on the pot so long before it blows. Don't get mad at the water in the pot.

The natural law of FAFO tells us that there have to be some consequences. They and the Arab world should be publicly offered this solution, and put them in a dilemma in which they either anger their citizens by refusing, or risk their internal stability by accepting.
Sure. The justification for mass deportations and what at least in my assessments seems to be an argument for ethnic cleansing is... "natural law". Which apparently trumps actual international laws and all norms of state behavior. Tell me, what exactly did the mass of uninvolved civilians "fuck around" with to get the "find out" portion of this? They weren't supportive enough of Israel?

No policy was released for the public yet, but I doubt the IDF will pay serious consideration to future accommodation of Palestinians if it comes in conflict with its task of eliminating Hamas figures and infrastructure.
The IDF takes their orders from political leadership. Figuring this out isn't their job, it's the job of the Israeli government. Last time I checked Israel wasn't a military dictatorship. It's the civilian authorities that have certain responsibilities. The responsibility of the IDF is to follow the laws of war, and to not engage in war crimes. As long as they do that, they're not the ones to blame here. They have their job to do.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Do Poland and Lithuania hold Kaliningrad under blockade? If they do, then why is none talking about it? If they don't, why expect of Israel something you won't expect of them?
I certainly don't see anyone complaining about Poland and Lithuania not providing Russia resources.
They don't "hold Kaliningrad under blockade". The last news I saw said that they still allow transit traffic (Russia & Belarus to & from Kaliningrad), & there is no blockade of the coast. Anyone that Russia allows can sail or fly in & out, though their routes are limited.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I am going to through something totally out of left field in here.

There has been a claim that:
"... a Chinese journalist based in the U.S. revealed that Xi Jinping is developing a huge, nefarious plan of strange maneuvers, and Russia's Vladimir Putin is also involved. Nobody, including the journalist himself, knew what the plan is until Hamas' attack on October 7th. This journalist' claim and the CCP's disclosed Middle Eastern strategy seem to support the belief that China and Russia are behind Hamas. Even more striking is the revelation that PLA's internal purging isn't related to corruption or coup but preparation for this "odd, unusual maneuver." As we wonder why Israeli intelligence missed the signals of a Hamas attack, this revelation helps us understand CCP's misinformation tactic."

I attempted to find the original tweet by Zhao Lanjian (at uyunistar) but couldn't.

It is claimed in the video that there is a concerted plan by Beijing and Moscow to attack and degrade US security interests around the world by stretching its capabilities, by fomenting multiple crisises for it deal with simultaneous. This is being achieved by seemingly unconnected attacks against US interests by fomenting crises amongst its allies and friends. In order retain its position in the world the US has to respond to each one.

Putin’s fingerprints are all over the Hamas attack | The Hill

Hamas’ gift to Vladimir Putin – POLITICO

This article discusses who benefits from the HAMAS attack.

Judy Asks: Does Anyone Benefit From the Israel-Hamas War? - Carnegie Europe - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Returning to my thesis above, that the CCP/PRC and Putin orchestrated this attack; if true it could be why Israeli intelligence missed the precursors because both CCP/PRC and Russian disinformation was used as part of the OPSEC. How would the CCP/PRC benefit from this HAMAS - Israeli War? It takes Washington's gaze away from the Indo Pacific briefly and maybe provide enough time for some form of action against Taiwan. If true it is a good strategic move, something that Sun Tzu would be proud of. Of course, time will tell.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thread unlocked. However a blanket message to all to confine content to the current defence/security situation and not try to delve into the underlying socio-political issues, Defencetalk is not the right place to discuss or try and resolve something that nations of the world haven't been able to resolve in over 75 years.
 
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