Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
During the massacre, Hamas also murdered ~40 Muslim Arabs and Bedouins.
Bedouin recon unit en route to Gaza:
Bedouin recon unit en route to Gaza:
Hamas-Israeli War 2023
- Thread starter koxinga
- Start date
Not sure what the term useful means in this context.
I don't have twitter nor any desire to create an account there.
As several have pointed out, Hamas is a product of a certain environment. There needs to be a solution that addresses the conditions that allowed Hamas to ferment.
To be perfectly clear, there isn't even a requirement for them to rescue these hostages. I suspect they will try, but the real mission here is defeating Hamas. This isn't a law enforcement operation or even a counter-terrorism operation. This is a war where the enemy combatants happen to be terrorists.
But they are arguably facing a stronger and better prepared opponent then before. I agree it's not the same. The current attack is pretty unprecedented.The fact that this kind of explicit messaging is taking place suggests I'm not the only one looking at a possibility of a second front if Israel does poorly enough in the current fight.
I think Assad is the least serious of these threats. The Syrian military still hasn't even close to recovered from their decade of civil war. They still have regular engagements domestically and don't have anywhere near full control of their own territory. If he throws his lot in with Hamas and Hezbollah, he will regret it, assuming he survives.
You're assuming some other state will be willing to sacrifice their territory and resources for this. And the suggestion of Yemen is particularly insidious since large chunks of that country are occupied by a foreign force. It might solve Israel's problem, but aren't you just setting up for a future fight between Palestinian settlers and the local Yemeni? And picking a country that doesn't have a control over its own territory suggests that you understand that it's unlikely someone will be willing to do this...Opinion:
I believe Israel, the Arab world, and the international community need to enter a dialogue for the eventual mass relocation of Palestinian population centers into areas that:
- Distance them from other population centers.
- Contain some natural resources - they have none, including water sources.
- Have potential for development - agriculture, construction, etc.
- Permit trade potential - incentive for economical development.
As it stands, I just do not see how the Palestinian people can ever escape this cycle of violence. Obviously I will not advocate for a violent solution even when I am most emotionally disturbed. I think this can be done humanely, even improving their wellbeing significantly in the process. It is not beyond the economical capability of Israel, the Arab world, and the EU to jointly fund the construction of multiple cities to house a future Palestinian state far from Israel, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt, for example in eastern Yemen.
If you are correct, then they have screwed themselves beyond all reason. If they aren't prepared to fight a real war against Israel, they're going to get absolutely wrecked. I guess we will find out soon. If they prepared, there should be massive urban defense lines, hardened positions, overlapping fields of fire, and more drones then anyone would reasonably expect.This brings us to the highly likely possibility that Hamas aimed low and overshot by a mile. I believe they intended to manage to push perhaps dozens in, kill a few or tens of Israelis, and have them killed in the process.
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Yes, thanks.Iran denies involvement. My guess: They fear the situation escalated too far.
Iran denies it had role in Hamas attack on Israel, claims accusation is ‘political’
Tehran says it does not intervene in decision-making of other countries 'including Palestine'; senior Hamas official say 'It was a surprise to everyone, including Iran'www.timesofisrael.com
In the siege yes. In the blockade no.
In peacetime, Israel maintains a blockade which essentially means movement of people and goods has to be coordinated with Israel and Egypt. It means there is a flow of people, and a flow of resources. As part of a humanitarian assistance program, Israel supplies Gaza with water, electricity, food, internet and cellular service, fuels, and other essentials, funded mostly by foreign aid programs as well as the PA.
Defense minister announces ‘complete siege’ of Gaza: No power, food or fuel
* * *
During wartime Israel enforces a siege, meaning nothing and none enters or leaves. Due to the severity of the situation, it decided to cut off water.
While Egypt maintains autonomy in this issue as well, in this instance Israel reportedly warned Egypt to stay clear of Gaza and attacked the Rafah crossing (Egypt-Gaza border crossing).
Hope this clarified the issue.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
It appears a full offensive is on now:
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is moving to a “full offense” against the Gaza Strip, as sporadic clashes with Hamas terrorists in southern Israel continue for a fourth day.
“I have released all the restraints, we have [regained] control of the area, and we are moving to a full offense,” Gallant says to troops on the Gaza border.
“You will have the ability to change the reality here. You have seen the prices [being paid], and you will get to see the change. Hamas wanted a change in Gaza, it will change 180 degrees from what it thought,” Gallant says.
“They will regret this moment, Gaza will never return to what it was,” he continues.
www.timesofisrael.com
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is moving to a “full offense” against the Gaza Strip, as sporadic clashes with Hamas terrorists in southern Israel continue for a fourth day.
“I have released all the restraints, we have [regained] control of the area, and we are moving to a full offense,” Gallant says to troops on the Gaza border.
“You will have the ability to change the reality here. You have seen the prices [being paid], and you will get to see the change. Hamas wanted a change in Gaza, it will change 180 degrees from what it thought,” Gallant says.
“They will regret this moment, Gaza will never return to what it was,” he continues.
Gallant: Israel moving to full offense, Gaza will never return to what it was
* * *
www.timesofisrael.com
SinisterMinister
Member
So you think the international community should ethnically cleanse Palestine? This is a pretty extreme take.Opinion:
- Distance them from other population centers.
- Contain some natural resources - they have none, including water sources.
- Have potential for development - agriculture, construction, etc.
- Permit trade potential - incentive for economical development.
Another perspective would be that violent uprisings, while terrible and often inexcusable in their methods, are the inevitable result of apartheid and ethnic cleansing. How many Palestinians have died at Israeli hands in the last 20 years? How many of their homes have been destroyed to make way for settlers? Do you really expect that this could just go on in this way forever? There is obviously a deep historical mess to untangle here, but it seems to me that putting the responsibility solely on Palestinians to behave properly when they have been the victims of war crimes and human rights abuses for decades is pretty unfair.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
I wouldn’t get carried away there and would definitely hold my horses, and pull real hard to stop them. I didn’t want to post anything on the subject at all for the time being because I understand what Big Zucchini is going through, however… While it is important to realize why all these people are in Gaza in the first place, what they have been through, etc. What took place a few days ago was completely… Frankly, I have no words for it. Despicable. Completely uncalled for (things such as these are never called for, fyi). I want to say a lot more, but I am really struggling finding appropriate words for it. The worst of humanity was at the display.
I’ll stop this, I think. There are no Israeli settlements in Gaza. I strongly disagree with his comment in regards to relocation and maybe I will explain why at some point, but your post came in completely in bad taste, mate.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
1. I think you are stuck on the term itself, which has a negative connotation, rather than on the practicality of said proposal. Palestinians would have a better life, better housing, a reset on conflicts, and an actual shot at independence and sovereignty.
2. The underlying thought between my proposal is not a transfer like that which happened recently in Artsakh (~180,000 Armenians deported with no preparation), but the genuine concern for Palestinian civilians who cannot practically escape this cycle and are therefore inevitably threatened whenever the IDF has to retaliate against Hamas.
3. Of course the implementation is one that could take many years, not an overnight event.
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SinisterMinister
Member
What exactly is in bad taste? Times like these are when nuance and informed thinking are at their most important. The United States caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands by responding to 9/11 with irrationally and bloodlust. I'll be damned if I watch people respond to this the same way without voicing my concerns.
I find calls for ethnic cleansing in bad taste, no matter the context. Palestinians in general did not do this. Hamas did this. And failing to recognize the reality of the situation that has formed Hamas will only perpetuate the problem.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
What do you think Israel should do right now (or a couple of days ago)?
Ananda
The Bunker Group
That's the idea for two state solutions. One idea perhaps can be argue is to swap Gaza with additional land adjacent to West Bank, while all Jewish settlers move out from West Bank. At the same time Israel also give PA control of border with Jordan and take charge on their own immigration control. Israel get Gaza thus better control on coasts.
Moving Palestinian to other Arab Nations control land will not be accepted by Arabs population in the streets. Arab nations are not democratic ones, thus they are very careful to potential opposition from streets. They will not going to accept idea that's going to bring another Arab Spring revolutions. Look how Saudi hold the normalization process with Israel. All this part move to calm down their streets temprate.
SinisterMinister
Member
I think that it is time for Israel to reckon with the utter failure of their policies regarding Palestine. The combination of continued encroachment on Palestinian territory in the West Bank, protection of illegal and provocative settler actions, and the blockade of the Gaza Strip have created a nightmarish existence for most Palestinians and directly contributed to the events of the last few days. This is to say nothing of the Netanyahu government's preference for Hamas over Fatah because it undermines Palestinian legitimacy.
So what I want Israel to do is establish control of the situation, expel the terrorists from Israel, mourn their dead, and then wipe the slate clean. No more apartheid. No more bombing. Accountability for war crimes. Sit down with Palestinian leadership and give them a real deal that guarantees equal rights for Palestinians and puts them on a long term path toward a joint Israel-Palestine state with citizenship for all. They can worry about dismantling Hamas once they have eliminated the conditions that make Hamas a more palatable option for Gazans than the IDF.
Will this happen? Not a chance in hell, but it would be the right thing to do. Things are going to get very very bad, the way it currently looks. Maybe tens of thousands of dead Palestinians. Israel suffered horrors, no doubt, and they deserve our sympathy. But that doesn't excuse what they are about to do.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
The issue I see is the proximity of the Palestinians to so many countries/entities they are in a hostile relationship with - Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon. Therefore land swaps within their existing territories are not going to be of much help. Before 2005 there was the intifada, an all time high violence between Israelis and Palestinians. Then Gaza was forfeited and Palestinians relocated en masse there, and the situation was objectively made worse.
I also do not propose moving them to within Arab nations in the same of integration, but rather something along the line of having independence on a territory Arab nations can forfeit. Hence my proposal of eastern Yemen. Jordan and Egypt technically also have vast unpopulated territories, as well as Saudi Arabia, Libya, Algeria and so on.
Aside from that, there is also a need for Palestinians to be able to temporarily escape to the Sinai in case of a war in Gaza to reduce civilian casualties. Currently Egypt allows up to 2,000 civilians per day. This is 2,000 more than they're obligated, as technically none has obligations toward Palestine, but practically this is almost statistically negligible.
Who did what is not the issue. The issue is that for the forseeable future there will continue to be wars, and even if Hamas is gone it'll be replaced by something new that will resume the fighting. Palestinians are also suffering in Syria, and their sheer presence in Lebanon also causes internal tensions and conflicts.
It can be said that de-facto Jordan is a Palestinian state, but their current government, as usual for this region, represents a minority that once came to power and since has held on.
Therefore I believe that gathering the entire Palestinian diaspora of the middle east, as well as the populations of the West Bank and Gaza, and create for them a state with ready infrastructure, resources, and arable land, and transfer them there for a second chance, would give them the reset they need.
This is not driven by any particular feeling toward Palestinians. If anything, logic dictates I would demand some aggressive action toward them, not a huge subsidy and welfare project, but I don't. It is driven by my personal belief that if I were to ever feel like there is no future for my children and grand children in my home country, I would rather live as a low income immigrant elsewhere to be able to form a family. Emotional attachment to one's birth place is non negligible, but I believe it is trumped by basic material needs.
Also I did not find it to be in bad taste. I welcome comments even if they stand opposed to my beliefs if both sides are willing to talk it out respectfully.
Those are noble things to say, but how sure are you that they would succeed if tried IRL? Because I can tell you right now that all your proposals were tried and ultimately failed at least once in Israel's history, some multiple times. What makes you think this will work?
Also your particular affinity for a one state solution is going to be very hard to justify considering that mixing two very opposed cultures/people in one state is universally a very bad idea. Either Israel will turn into a repressive militant state, or it will undergo a second holocaust. Either way, it cannot remain a liberal democracy.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
That's not working because the implementation not really working into two state solutions. The choice is either two state solutions within the land that used to be called Palestine Territory (under British mandate or Ottoman before), or one state solutions.
One state solutions is more harder to mix two different societies. Then it's back to real two state solutions. That's why if Gaza being taken over, Israel must leave West Bank to PA control, including the whole aspects of sovereignty. Intifada happen because the sovereignty actually never been given.
Asking the Arab nations (and I get thar your thinking is not for Palestinian to be integrate into Arab nations), to give land for Palestinian State is the thing that will not be accepted by Arab populations in street. Because it is means to give up West Bank and Palestine land. It is means accepting Israel demand for Whole Palestine land. That's not going to be accepted, if we see whole Arab sentiments whether in media, streets, or onlines.
Either Israel and Palestinian live as neighbors on two seperate sovereign nations, or both has to live as equal society in one nations. Without that, then this situation will going to be happening in one vicious cycle.
I think that's the reality of it. Sadly it appears that neither side really sees any form of compromise as acceptable, and Israel holds all the cards to compromise on - in practice, that means land and freedom of travel/trade/etc.
Suppose there were some chance of that happening until recently, or at least working towards that, well that surely is now thrown out of the window. Situations like this are a reset of the hatred, another generation born into a world of seeing their family and friends killed (on both sides).
I'm yet to read of a proposal that seems in anyway acceptable to both parties, which demonstrates the difficulty.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Jordan can't afford to pay for Israel's problems
The fantastical idea that Amman should give up land for a new Palestine won't go away.
responsiblestatecraft.org
This article basically discuss why the idea of Arab nations give up land for Palestinian will not going to work. Because in the end, what ever the arguments from Israel or even some Israel supporters in Washington, Palestinian in the Arab eyes already have their land.
Yes, they have to share the land, and Israel as holder of upper hand this time around has to begin compromising on the land control. On other hand PA also has to shown realities that they too has to compromise on the land demand.
However the solution has to be completed. Either complete separation or complete integration. Half way measures only postpone problem and raise another ticking bomb. The way I see all the negotiations so far, is not working as they don't give the complete solutions.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
Israel never demanded the full West Bank and Gaza. It never had such territorial aspirations, and looking at the dominant schools of thought, there doesn't seem to be support for such an adventure anywhere from left to right. The only ones that might propose such a possibility are the Religious Zionism party that despite the demographic growth, does not seem to be able to gain traction.
But I do agree with the statement that this will not be popular in the Arab street.
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Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I don't think Israel holds any cards for a compromise. There is the old idea that still seems to be perfectly acceptable for Israelis - that if the Palestinians lay down their arms and disband terrorist organizations like Hamas, PIJ, PFLP, Fatah etc, they could have a real peace process with Israel. But that's not going to happen anytime soon.
Israel had the territory card until 2005 when it gave up Gaza. But both Hamas and the PA demonstrated just how much of a mistake that was, so now territory swap is no longer something Israel is capable of doing.
The recent events are a clear demonstration that the one state solution is no longer possible. If Palestinians are integrated as free-traveling, voting, citizens of Israel, then what happened around Gaza would happen daily in every part of Israel. The fact that things like beheading babies, burning people alive, raping women and children, and other unspeakable horrors are considered normal for them, means the two cultures simply cannot coexist without physical barriers.
What about a 2 state solution? This is what we have at the moment. The PA and Hamas are the de-facto governments of Judea & Samaria, and Gaza respectively. Their lack of statehood status is purely symbolic at this point, especially for Gaza that may be under blockade by 2 countries, but is completely sovereign within its own territory.
Yet the one that is more of a state between the two, actually performs much more poorly than the other. So in light of this, is a 2 state solution viable as well?
Way I see it, neither a 1 state solution, nor the classical 2 state solution, are viable today. Gaza is on a path to self-destruction, and Judea and Samaria is going to remain under tight Israeli control lest it become a Gaza 2.0.
In the end, Palestinians have:
- Received more aid and for longer than any other nation I can think of yet are one of the worst performing economies.
- Antagonized every neighbor and host country.
- Burnt their relations with any country other than those whose interests in them are purely military.
- Put themselves at a military disadvantage versus any potential foe.
- Adopted a culture that punishes self and national responsibility.
I just don't see how they can persist.
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1. I am sorry for pain you must be going through. As a Singaporean, lots of lessons for the SAF & our public to learn. The IAF has a long-prepared deliberate target list of terrorist exclusive use or dual-use sites, with about 500 structures hit per day, over the last 4 days (aka 2,000 aim points hit by day 4).
2. The IAF target list would have prioritised these targets from day 1, 2, 3, to day 60. Once the air campaign enters the close air support mode, with Israeli troops-in-contact (TIC) with Hamas fighters from day 14 to 21 onwards, it will be even more intense but with smaller munitions. At that time, not only will human rights group be screaming, even Team Biden’s resolve to support will be tested.
3. I suspect the hostage-taking largely benefits Hamas C2, shielding it from direct attack. There is likely what amounts to an entire city of tunnels and bunkers under Gaza’s surface.
4. As it did in 2014, Hamas should be expected to use tunnels offensively to maneuver attackers underground, keeping them both hidden and protected, to conduct surprise attacks. The group will also use them defensively to move between fighting positions to avoid IDF firepower.
5. In 2014, Hamas deployed between 2,500 and 3,500 fighters to defend Gaza with their Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades. This time, I suspect fighting won’t end until 1Q2024, at the earliest.
6. Hezbollah’s reaction tells me that the Biden Admin is making all the right moves, in supporting Israel & deterring Iran.
7. From day 21 onwards, reliance on firepower will grow — I suspect air strike hits will be in the 950 to 1,250 hits, per day range, at that time (at least double the rate now).
- At that time, not only will human rights group be screaming, even Team Biden’s resolve to support will be tested.
- Singapore has too much reliance on firepower. My estimate is 800 hits per day, at peak, for Singapore’s CONOPS — as our air force is much smaller.
- This reliance on firepower occurs when the IDF’s brigades in attack need support to take each tactical objective, in sequence. Rolling barrage still works to kill or capture stunned Hamas survivors in these defended objectives.
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SinisterMinister
Member
I have no idea if they would succeed, I was asked what I think they should do. Nothing tried yet has succeeded, and these are really the only realistic options left short of killing or displacing everyone.
All my proposals were tried in Israeli history? When exactly were Palestinians promised full citizenship and democratic rights? Or when were their lands / homes given full protection of the law? When were Israeli's who committed war crimes and/or murdered Palestinians consistently prosecuted? I'm aware these things have been advocated, but I know of no attempt at actually implementing them.
I support the one state solution because the two state solution is impossible. They already are one state, just a state without equal status for nearly half its population. Splitting the West Bank is unworkable, and uniting a free West Bank and Gaza into a single state that is economically viable is equally unworkable. The two state solution is merely the carrot on a stick dangled in front of Palestinians to keep them in line. It will not and can not happen.
Are there difficulties with a unified state? Of course. But I think if it is constructed properly it would have some chance of working. Keep in mind that history has shown time and time again that people's extreme beliefs get significantly less extreme when they are given real protection and opportunity for prosperity.
As to your proposal for relocating all Palestinians, you should know as well as I do that they would never accept the loss of their homes willingly. Furthermore, there would never be a state that offers them valuable land and resources to live on. So if anything is possible in this avenue, it would probably look something like the forced removal of indigenous peoples in America to barren and useless land that nobody wanted. That's pretty ugly and brutal.