Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Big_Zucchini]

I swear it's so hard to even present information nowadays. Due to liveblogs it's impossible to link to articles. Instead I will post screenshots whenever necessary.

Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant announced a total siege of Gaza. On day 1 Israel cut off electricity. Now it cuts off fuel, food, and water.

It's important to note however that this is not a particularly rare occurrence. Such measures were temporarily taken in the past during military operations because many items are transferred via trucks which is impossible until corridors are established. This in turn means the IDF is now geared for a ground operation in which these corridors will be created.​

Fuel and water are cut off despite being transferred via pipes as in previous conflicts Hamas sabotaged such infrastructure which in turn could lead to an ecological and humanitarian disaster. Water is possible to transfer via land routes (bottled).​

Fuel specifically is used to power Gaza's power stations, and cutting it off means total blackout, giving the IDF a further advantage in urban combat.​

It is likely internet will also be cut and the IDF will proceed to rely solely on roof knocking and leaflets.​

While on the topic of roof knocking, the IDF now takes a modified approach with the aim of increasing strike tempo. Instead of roof knocking every single building as it did in the past, it messaged all Gazans to leave buildings and homes that contain Hamas infrastructure (they all know whether it exists, it's even in their property purchase/rent contracts), and after an area is completely evacuated they strike all targets quickly. This way Hamas knows they're going to get attacked, but not when, and they don't know if their specific building or spot is marked, or missed by Israeli intelligence.

Of course they're wrong though. It may be classified. But it absolutely can be debated.

Yeah, I meant that they can't be debated in the sense that people in the know cannot reveal real details, i.e. expose classified material. But the pictures we see, of said artillery pieces just sitting in such vulnerable positions, speak louder.

And their fire mission would be disrupted creating a gap in artillery support for infantry units relying on this battery to be their on-call fire support. It's not just about the damage to this element, it's about what that does to the overall effort.

I think there's an element of arrogance at play. No Israeli artillery asset has been hit in combat in decades.

Longer range then what can be reached with loitering munitions? Israel is not a large country. Where do they plan on parking these systems? In the Mediterranean?

The Golan is actually the artilleryman's wet dream. Situated high and with frequent steep defensive slopes mean Israeli artillery can fire beyond its nominal range while enemy artillery will have a hard time doing counter-battery fire.

EDIT:

While I understand the anger and sentiment, statements like this that dehumanises the enemy is a dangerous slippery slope to justify atrocities.
What's next? Concentration camps? Because that sounds very close to it. It is a no win situation for all concerned.
"We are fighting animals and are acting accordingly," Gallant said in Hebrew.

Hamas have indeed behaved like animals. You may object to the specific term used, that's your right, but to say the next step is concentration camps is a serious leap.

Europeans and Ukrainians in particular love calling Russians "orcs" (humanoids with animalistic features and barbaric traits), "pigs", and "meat". Would it be reasonable to say there will be a return to concentration camps in Europe?

 

[OPSSG]

What's next? Concentration camps? Because that sounds very close to it. It is a no win situation for all concerned.

1. In Article 8(2)(b)(4) of the Rome Statute, the principle of proportionality forbids attacks in which expected civilian casualties will be excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage gained.

​

(a) There is military advantage gained in ending Hamas’ genocidal terrorist attacks. And Israel is not party to the ICC or the Additional Protocol I on prohibition of starvation.​

​

(b) For clarity, this does not mean I would condone an unlawful act, if it is committed by an IDF solider. Israel is not relieved of the burden to conduct itself according to the Laws of Armed Conflict merely because Hamas does not do so.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711228394703048728

2 While on the topic of roof knocking, the IDF now takes a modified approach with the aim of increasing strike tempo. Instead of roof knocking every single building as it did in the past, it messaged all Gazans to leave buildings and homes that contain Hamas infrastructure (they all know whether it exists, it's even in their property purchase/rent contracts), and after an area is completely evacuated they strike all targets quickly. This way Hamas knows they're going to get attacked, but not when, and they don't know if their specific building or spot is marked, or missed by Israeli intelligence.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711462349310197818

2. Hamas went full ISIS in its attacks, which is why the law recognizes that the possibility of civilian casualties is an unfortunate but expected element of even lawful attacks; it simply requires Israel to try and minimize the number, which the IDF is doing, including by warning civilians to leave. Hamas, however, knows that people misunderstand what proportionality means and assume (for no good reason) that it has something to do with the relative number of dead bodies on each side.

3. Article 27 of the Hague Regulations reads:

In sieges and bombardments all necessary steps must be taken to spare, as far as possible, buildings dedicated to religion, art, science, or charitable purposes, historic monuments, hospitals, and places where the sick and wounded are collected, provided they are not being used at the time for military purposes.​

​

It is the duty of the besieged to indicate the presence of such buildings or places by distinctive and visible signs, which shall be notified to the enemy beforehand.​

The article’s extensive list of protected objects is eye-catching. Less prominent, but just as important however, are its caveats. The literal phrasing of the Article 27 obligation to spare is promising in humanitarian terms. However, it is likely that interpretation of the phrase “as far as possible” has been tamed in practice to mean “as far as feasible.” In law of war terms, feasibility increasingly refers to what can be done in very practical terms.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711348340078555542

4. Sieges are time honoured military tactics. Even the ICRC says it is lawful, provided the goal is for a military purpose (& not only to starve the population).

​

(a) Destroying Hamas’ capability to strike from Gaza, & attempting to rescue hostages, are valid military purposes — it might take months, for these purposes to be met.​

​

(b) A possible IDF ground invasion of Gaza, will encounter an underground network of tunnels. Hamas will have been preparing for an IDF ground assault and knows these tunnels inside and out. Some of them are likely booby-trapped. Clearing tunnels is a nightmare scenario for the soldiers doing it. Like the urban warfare taking place on the surface, this is expected to be a slow, methodical process.​

5. Along with the deployment of USS Gerald R. Ford, the Pentagon is sending the cruiser USS Normandy, destroyers USS Thomas Hudner, USS Ramage, USS Carney, USS Roosevelt and augmenting USAF fighter aircraft squadrons in the region. These deployments likely reflects US concern that if Iran launches a full regional attack on Israel, including Hezbollah, and Israel faces an existential threat, Israel can answer Iran with existential weapons of its own. Thus, the Biden administration has an interest in deterring Iran from doing so.

 

[koxinga]

Hamas have indeed behaved like animals. You may object to the specific term used, that's your right, but to say the next step is concentration camps is a serious leap.
Europeans and Ukrainians in particular love calling Russians "orcs" (humanoids with animalistic features and barbaric traits), "pigs", and "meat". Would it be reasonable to say there will be a return to concentration camps in Europe?

Words matter. That is my opinion. I personally detest the use of the "orcs" to describe the Russians, but trying to defend that seems to open the charge to one being pro-Russian.

IDF needs to do what it needs to do, much like Ukraine has to do what it takes to regain its borders. But we, as humans like to see ourselves as just and better than the other "guy". It might well be true (in the case of Ukraine or Israel), but using alternative terms is just a way to avoid saying people killing people. Killing a pig, a cow or a video game character would seem more abstract.

 

[koxinga]

1. In Article 8(2)(b)(4) of the Rome Statute, the principle of proportionality forbids attacks in which expected civilian casualties will be excessive in relation to the anticipated military advantage gained.

​

(a) There is military advantage gained in ending Hamas’ genocidal terrorist attacks. And Israel is not party to the ICC or the Additional Protocol I on prohibition of starvation.​

​

(b) For clarity, this does not mean I would condone an unlawful act, if it is committed by an IDF solider. Israel is not relieved of the burden to conduct itself according to the Laws of Armed Conflict merely because Hamas does not do so.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711228394703048728

2 While on the topic of roof knocking, the IDF now takes a modified approach with the aim of increasing strike tempo. Instead of roof knocking every single building as it did in the past, it messaged all Gazans to leave buildings and homes that contain Hamas infrastructure (they all know whether it exists, it's even in their property purchase/rent contracts), and after an area is completely evacuated they strike all targets quickly. This way Hamas knows they're going to get attacked, but not when, and they don't know if their specific building or spot is marked, or missed by Israeli intelligence.

2. Hamas went full ISIS in its attacks, which is why the law recognizes that the possibility of civilian casualties is an unfortunate but expected element of even lawful attacks; it simply requires Israel to try and minimize the number, which the IDF is doing, including by warning civilians to leave. Hamas, however, knows that people misunderstand what proportionality means and assume (for no good reason) that it has something to do with the relative number of dead bodies on each side.

As far as I can tell, the warnings so far has been issued to civilians in buildings that have been identified as targets in bombing. In that sense, Israel is following the letter of the Rome Statute as much as possible.

But practically on the ground, there is probably no way any civilians to leave Gaza at the opening stages of a ground offensive, for good military reasons.

My view is Hamas went into this knowing that even with an attempt for proportionate response on the part of IDF, it will invariably spiral out of control to some degree. This is due to Hamas's deliberate ploy of abductions, which will force the IDF to take a more direct and kinetic approach.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711331823379206588

This video circulating in few X accounts, which seems they are taking from Hamas media sources. This is shown how the breach happening. As amateur, I just see this as Hamas already knows well which sensors need to be taken off and which points need to breach.

This is clearly shown long preparation from Hamas before executing the operation. Which then raise question why Israel Intelligence miss this.

Egypt intelligence official says Israel ignored repeated warnings of ‘something big’

Cairo official says Israel focused on West Bank instead of Gaza; Egypt's spy chief said to warn PM of 'terrible operation,' Netanyahu denies it

www.timesofisrael.com

Israel media question also why they are miss the warnings. Seems point out on obsession with West Bank in Netanyahu administration as part of potential ignorance toward Gaza. So I do see this can be part of Hamas political aim toward both Netanyahu administration and even Fatah PA in West Bank.

 

[Feanor]

Some of it might depend on the specifics of the comms systems used. For instance, some comms systems used to move data suffer signal attenuation when used for distances over 100 m. Therefore the difference between 10 m and 110 m apart could very well be that one unit can receive fire mission data, whilst the other cannot. The same could potentially hold true if directional transceivers are used (RF, laser, etc.) and even intervening terrain or buildings could potentially cause issues. In such cases, the dispersion does indeed matter because the units still need to be able to communicate with each other, as well as whoever/whatever is providing the fire direction control or calling in the fire missions.

This makes sense, but then the answer becomes - disperse 95m so you're under the 100m limit for signal attenuation. Again looking at what we have there is basically almost no dispersion, nor any attempt to hide them. Also it can not be an insurmountable problem to develop means for dispersed functioning of artillery batteries. In the grander scheme, either the Russo-Ukrainian war is an aberration or it's a new reality. Given the proliferation of this tech, it's simplicity, and effectiveness, I'm of the opinion that this is a new reality.

I think there's an element of arrogance at play. No Israeli artillery asset has been hit in combat in decades.

This is my point. Complacency kills. If Israel learns the right lessons from this war, they could come out much stronger then when it started. If Israel doesn't, they could be in for quite a lot of pain. In Russian there is also a saying. A smart person learns from the mistakes of others. An idiot learns from his own.

The Golan is actually the artilleryman's wet dream. Situated high and with frequent steep defensive slopes mean Israeli artillery can fire beyond its nominal range while enemy artillery will have a hard time doing counter-battery fire.

Right, but is the idea that Israel hopes they won't need to aim for dispersion and concealment because they can park their artillery at safe ranges? I'm skeptical that this is even possible, again with the proliferation of drone strikes, loitering munitions, and missile tech.

Hamas have indeed behaved like animals. You may object to the specific term used, that's your right, but to say the next step is concentration camps is a serious leap.
Europeans and Ukrainians in particular love calling Russians "orcs" (humanoids with animalistic features and barbaric traits), "pigs", and "meat". Would it be reasonable to say there will be a return to concentration camps in Europe?

Well... in Russian sources it's common to refer to Ukrainians as pigs or pig-like (general swine references that make limited grammatical sense in Russian but are virtually untranslatable). Actually in Ukrainian military videos they mostly seem to refer to Russians as "faggots". None of this is a good example to follow. The fact that people are doing this doesn't make it right or smart.

 

[Jaykaro]

hey all know whether it exists, it's even in their property purchase/rent contracts

Interesting information about property purchase/rental contracts. Are there any examples of these contracts or perhaps some articles available?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Interesting information about property purchase/rental contracts. Are there any examples of these contracts or perhaps some articles available?

Not sure. I've seen a long time ago in a TV series about life in Gaza that due to poverty, Gazans accept Hamas offers to store weapons in their houses in exchange for subsidies.
If it matters, consider this an unverified anecdote.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

When the ground incursion begins, and the war truly intensifies, there will be a count down until a humanitarian disaster hits Gaza.

Israel does not want a humanitarian disaster in Gaza and has worked vigorously for years to keep Gaza afloat. However Israel is now driven to action that leaves such possibility inevitable.

I assume this will not happen in a vacuum.

Israel is highly likely to offer Hamas an escape route and avert a humanitarian disaster. Israel is highly likely to demand the release of all hostages in return for restoring water, food, and electricity supply.

However, it is definitely possible that Hamas will refuse such an offer, execute the hostages, and bank on a humanitarian crisis to bring international pressure on Israel.

 

[peterAustralia]

I have been quite impressed with the tone of this thread, it appears quite balanced,, some consideration given to both sides. I am not happy with Civilians on either side being killed,, and I am sure many more will die in coming weeks or months.

One small factor I would like to get into,, it the psychology of a person living in Gaza. If your are born in Gaza,, you can never leave, you will never see snow,, never see a forest, never be more than 15 miles from the center of Gaza,, you will never visit Europe, south america,,Asia, you will never admire the view from a mountain,, never see an animal in the wild,, never walk among the wildflowers and never feel at peace. On any given day you cannot be certain that the Israel Air Force will not drop a bomb on you, because you by chance walked past a Hamas building, or someone somewhere made a mistake...A life like this is not psychologically healthy, your mental health will not be good.... the society around you is one hundred percent centered along the idea that Israel is bad, and you are being mistreated. You are likely to develop the psychology of victim-hood,, always seeking revenge,, your positive thoughts will be outweighed by the negatives of your situation. You will probably see yourself as a resident of a huge open air prison

It is thus not surprising that thousands and thousands of young people join Hamas, they know they may quite well die,, but if in their psychology there is no hope, there is nothing to lose...

Thus I see nothing changing,,, there is a war this year...thing wont change,,, in a few years there will be another,, then another,, then another ,, then another.... Put the clock forward,, fifty years,, 100 years,,, 200 years and ask yourself when does the situation change?,, is there a long term solution?

 

[hauritz]

I still cannot work out what Hamas expects to gain from all of this. The way the script usually plays out is a disproportionate counter attack by the Israelis followed up with the Mossad hunting down and killing all those involved is planning the attack.

 

[Feanor]

I still cannot work out what Hamas expects to gain from all of this. The way the script usually plays out is a disproportionate counter attack by the Israelis followed up with the Mossad hunting down and killing all those involved is planning the attack.

Well... if they're winning, Hezbollah can jump in and create a second front, bringing down Israel. And if they're losing Hezbollah can jump in, create a second front, and act as the savior. It's not a guarantee that Israel wins this. Presumably they feel strong enough and confident enough to force Israel to end this fight in negotiations. Of course if they're wrong, this could end very badly for them indeed. For example, Iran and Hezbollah could sit this one out. Especially if Israel recovers quickly from the early failures and proceeds to wreck Hamas like they always have. I suspect this is a calculated risk, intended to show that Israel is weak enough, and they are strong enough, to have backers in Lebanon and Iran step in big time. Of course, as the bird meme goes "This was a calculated risk but man am I bad at math". If successful, this could seriously undermine Israel, and Hamas doesn't have to win the fight just show that Israel is sufficiently vulnerable. If unsuccessful, this could be the end of Hamas.

 

[OPSSG]

Footage from Tribe of Nova music festival

1. On 7 Oct 2023, Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip attacked a large gathering of civilians at a music festival in Re'im, Israel, killing more than 260 people.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711498747757101261

2. Israeli first responders continue to release dash cam footage from vehicles near the Tribe of Nova music festivalon Saturday morning. The video shows the same “road of death” along which visitors to the festival fled. The vehicle is fleeing south towards Magen on the 232 highway, they encounter Hamas militants west of Re’im, who kill the driver.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711274988815204791

3. Incredibly brave acts from out numbered & outgunned Israeli security & police, setting up a blocking position near the Tribe of Nova music festival, to prevent further movement by Hamas terrorists.

 

[OPSSG]

It's not a guarantee that Israel wins this. Presumably they feel strong enough and confident enough to force Israel to end this fight in negotiations.

Q: Is this a useful way of responding to the largest mobilisation of the IDF (prior to the commencement of the ground war in Gaza)?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711591262305005807

1. Please give @SpencerGuard a follow, to understand why this ground war in Gaza will be different from 2014’s Op Protective Edge b’cos of the scale of IDF mobilisation for the siege to come in Gaza.

(a) Hamas wanted a war & started it. The IDF will finish it. There is no doubt, there is political will to give a good go at destroying Hamas, instead of just spanking these terrorists for 50 days.​

​

(b) There is no time-limit for the IDF to rescue the Israeli & American hostages. The IDF is working with the US DoD about getting to top-up for their ammo for day 60, of the conflict. Washington will standby & watch.​

(c) This time, the IDF is not under the same time pressure as before. This campaign will take months.​

​

Of course if they're wrong, this could end very badly for them indeed. For example, Iran and Hezbollah could sit this one out.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711078544598790449

2. Iran and Hezbollah are being told to sit this out or face additional forces. They understand death from above.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1711512034754384113

3. The UAE has warned the Assad regime in Syria not to intervene in the Hamas-Israel war or to allow attacks on Israel from Syrian soil.

 

[Rob c]

This whole saga has left me, saddened, confused and pulling my hair out. I see that there can be no real winner in this conflict and while there may be a military winner the long term out look for harmony between the protagonists is still grim. Peace, I believe, will remain elusive. This can only come about when both sides can learn to to co-exist with each other and respect each others cultures. I doubt this will happen in my lifetime as the ingrained hatred will take generations to be moderated or eliminated. It is a cancer of this world, but not the only one.

I am deeply disturbed by what has happened in this region over a long period of time.

 

[koxinga]

Well... if they're winning, Hezbollah can jump in and create a second front, bringing down Israel. And if they're losing Hezbollah can jump in, create a second front, and act as the savior. It's not a guarantee that Israel wins this.

We need to define what "win" means, and my assumption is it means different things to different actors.

I don't see any of these Palestinian actors (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Fateh) winning militarily and bring down Israel. Israel has ovewhelming convention and unconventional military advantages that would ensure the survival of the state or take everyone else down together.

The other dimension about this conflict, beyond making it about Israel and the broader Arab-Israel relationship is also about who controls the narrative of the Palestinians among the different factions, IMO.

Strictly an opinion.

Hezbollah: I think they will sit this one out. When the dust settles (with Hamas/IJ serverly weakened or totally destroyed), they stand to gain by being to only militarily credible faction for the Palestinians.

Fateh: I think Fateh was kept out of the loop on this. If there are any leaks to the Israel's, it could come from them. And it makes sense for them not to directly confront the IDF, although they will offer the politically correct statements.

Hamas/IJ: They are gambling with their own existence and the lives of innocent people (Arabs/Israel) to put brakes on Arab-Israeli improvements.

 

[swerve]

Israel media question also why they are miss the warnings. Seems point out on obsession with West Bank in Netanyahu administration as part of potential ignorance toward Gaza.

I can't help feeling that Netanyahu has been focused on his personal position, & sucking up to West Bank settlers & their supporters to get them to back him in general, & his vendetta against the Supreme Court in particular. I hope this comes back to bite him & them when the dust has settled.

 

[swerve]

I swear it's so hard to even present information nowadays. Due to liveblogs it's impossible to link to articles. Instead I will post screenshots whenever necessary.

Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant announced a total siege of Gaza. On day 1 Israel cut off electricity. Now it cuts off fuel, food, and water.
...
View attachment 50870

...

I've not seen official mentions of cutting off water. Is it really included in the blockade?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Iran denies involvement. My guess: They fear the situation escalated too far.

Iran denies it had role in Hamas attack on Israel, claims accusation is ‘political’

Tehran says it does not intervene in decision-making of other countries 'including Palestine'; senior Hamas official say 'It was a surprise to everyone, including Iran'

www.timesofisrael.com

I've not seen official mentions of cutting off water. Is it really included in the blockade?

In the siege yes. In the blockade no.
In peacetime, Israel maintains a blockade which essentially means movement of people and goods has to be coordinated with Israel and Egypt. It means there is a flow of people, and a flow of resources. As part of a humanitarian assistance program, Israel supplies Gaza with water, electricity, food, internet and cellular service, fuels, and other essentials, funded mostly by foreign aid programs as well as the PA.

Defense minister announces ‘complete siege’ of Gaza: No power, food or fuel

* * *

www.timesofisrael.com

During wartime Israel enforces a siege, meaning nothing and none enters or leaves. Due to the severity of the situation, it decided to cut off water.
While Egypt maintains autonomy in this issue as well, in this instance Israel reportedly warned Egypt to stay clear of Gaza and attacked the Rafah crossing (Egypt-Gaza border crossing).

Hope this clarified the issue.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Opinion:
I believe Israel, the Arab world, and the international community need to enter a dialogue for the eventual mass relocation of Palestinian population centers into areas that:

• Distance them from other population centers.
• Contain some natural resources - they have none, including water sources.
• Have potential for development - agriculture, construction, etc.
• Permit trade potential - incentive for economical development.

As it stands, I just do not see how the Palestinian people can ever escape this cycle of violence. Obviously I will not advocate for a violent solution even when I am most emotionally disturbed. I think this can be done humanely, even improving their wellbeing significantly in the process. It is not beyond the economical capability of Israel, the Arab world, and the EU to jointly fund the construction of multiple cities to house a future Palestinian state far from Israel, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt, for example in eastern Yemen.

At no point in the following decade or so, I believe the Palestinians will have a better opportunity than now to internally eliminate terrorism and strive for a peaceful, functional government. Yet, this possibility is far from realistic right now considering the sentiment in the Palestinian street.

Another opinion:
Israel indeed has a strong intelligence grip on the middle east and beyond. However, anything can be countered if something matters enough. The oldest trick in the book is compartmentalization, and in the modern age - going analog.

For reasons I won't expose here, Israeli intelligence grip in Gaza was not keeping its usual tempo in the last few years.

It is highly likely that to achieve such penetration of the border, Hamas both used analog methods of communication like written letters (easy in a small urban area), and separated the plan into components that each were told to few people who didn't get access to the full picture. After all, Hamas are well aware of Israel's ability to infiltrate their data flow - from recorders on their digital networks to microphones in their offices.

There is a price to pay for such methods though - coordination is little to none, and as soon as the command is given, whatever happens - happens.

This brings us to the highly likely possibility that Hamas aimed low and overshot by a mile. I believe they intended to manage to push perhaps dozens in, kill a few or tens of Israelis, and have them killed in the process.

It doesn't take a genius to tell that the more damage Hamas inflicts, the harder Israel will strike back, and that Israel can win any military engagement against its regional foes. Hamas's cowardly response - threatening to execute hostages for every attack without warning, is particularly telling that they feel they bit off more than they can chew.

Iran distancing itself from the act also tells us that in high likelihood Iran did not expect this as well and understands the serious danger its decades-long force buildup in the region is in.