Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Big_Zucchini]

My take on the whole situation:

But first, a primer - Israel elected a new government in November 2022. It is composed of many extremists and overall performs poorly. It vowed to cancel Israel's checks and balances, risking turning it into a dictatorship. The PM, Netanyahu, vowed to get his kingdom at any cost, down to the last Israeli.

Let's proceed...

1. Israel's current government has been preparing the ground for this situation for months. It started with dismantling democracy to which many reservists, who de-facto hold the IDF together, responded by refusing to show up for reserve duties. Many Israeli pilots have also refused to train, enabled by their unique status as "volunteers", in turn leaving them unfit for many of the IAF's complex activities. The protest did not skip the conscripts whose influence was far more transparent, as many requested to be in non-combat roles, or were just deeply demoralized. Within weeks of the initiation of the protest movement, the IDF declared a lowered combat readiness across the board, although in many parts of it - it was immediate.
   
   
   
2. Israel's current government also likes to abuse many of its powers including the IDF's activities. Many Israelis complained that the IDF over-extends itselfs and risks troops by sending soldiers to guard ultra orthodox Jews who like provoking Palestinians (in Judea and Samaria). Since the IDF draws from its combat brigades to do this policing, it necessarily means this manpower is drawn from somewhere. This situation has been ongoing for many decades, but the guard duties for provocateurs who by Israeli law are actually doing criminal activity, have ramped up significantly recently. Only yesterday someone posted a video showing a member of Knesset along with ultra orthodox Jews celebrating Simchat Tora in Huwara - a Palestinian city that has become a flashpoint in the last several months.
   
   
   https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710038162796429783
   
   
3. It is also apparent that the phenomenon has gone too far and IDF troops from Gaza have indeed been drawn to reinforce in the Judea and Samaria region.
   
   https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710645456068374719
   https://x.com/BenCaspit/status/1710645456068374719?s=20
   
   
   
4. Regarding intelligence - Israel, like many others, collects intelligence via many means. Sometimes technological like tapping a communication line, sometimes OSINT, sometimes visual, human, etc etc. Naturally whatever is gathered is one piece of a puzzle as Hamas, as well as other regional actors, have many different activities relating to combat movements, weapons development, internal organization, training activities etc etc. A lot is left blank, and it's the job of analysts to fill these blanks. This can sometimes mean the presented intelligence varies significantly from mild to significant threats - for the same topic.
   Considering how much Hamas invests in adapting and thwarting Israeli intelligence, combined with an event that occurred in 2019 (exposure of an Israeli cell) and dealt a significant blow to Israeli intelligence in Gaza, it is only natural that Hamas manages to surprise Israel, even far more frequently than many realize.
   But the Israeli deployment on its borders is meant to account even for events of surprises such as today. Have enough critical mass that both surveys and acts, to eliminate such hazards. But this obviously does not work if there is no such mass in the first place (see points #2 and #3).
   Hamas also has its own intelligence apparatus and they are capable of providing detailed information on Israeli manpower status on the Gaza border.
   
   
5. Future surprises like this will occur, just not with such severity. The Israeli intelligence corps, for example, does believe that in the event of a Hezbollah incursion (Radwan force) into Israel (approx 5000 personnel), Israel WILL be surprised. I repeat. They believe Hezbollah will manage to catch Israel off guard! But they are preparing various solutions for that problem, on which I cannot elaborate.

 

[Feanor]

The IDF does not present such data and even then, the IDF uses an ad-hoc combat structure. Its armor, infantry, artillery, etc etc units are structured as corps-centric units, which in combat are disassembled and reassembled into combat teams. Independence exists on the brigade and rarely even battalion levels, but the basic operating unit in the IDF is still the division, as far as I remember at least. So essentially the IDF disperses such systems among combat units on a per need basis.
What does it have? Mostly jammers, as well as some niche capabilities that may have been further developed in the form of FPVs acting as drone interceptors, whether by crashing into them, deploying nets, or other measures last seen around Gaza a few years ago.
Some soldiers also have the Dagger sight, which is a local name for the SMASH system - an FCS for a standard rifle that allows shooting at moving drones.
Some tanks are using the newest variant of the Trophy which is capable of shooting down drones on approach (not when they're directly above). This weakspot may be removed by the older and proven cooperative defense capability of Trophy but it is unknown to what extent each capability is deployed.

I do believe AFVs should have onboard jammers as well as RCWS but for now it seems the situation is quite fine.

Presumably this small collections is the result of surprise but nonetheless it raises questions. If you're correct we won't see buckets more of videos like these come out. If we do, that indicates that the defense you mention aren't as effective as is necessary to shut down strikes like these.

VK.com | VK

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[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710817995579113966

If this claim is true, then Hamas latest operations shown how corruption on Ukrainian War going to benefit extremists movement arsenal. Something that right wing advocacies like him already claim against Biden.

Either way, it is also shown Israel effort to corridor and isolate Gaza to push down and minimise external supplies, not working as hope for.

 

[SP_viewer]

Post 1 of 2: Pardon my confusion

Q: What is the end-game of Hamas/PIJ & their sponsor Iran?

1. The more I watch events unfold, the less I understand. Israel & IDF will still stand ready to fight in Gaza next week, next month & next year.

2. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant launches Operation Swords of Iron — this war begins with a well planned & executed attack on Israel. Meanwhile, the IDF is fighting to regain control of multiple parts of the country.


3. Hamas executed victims in very deliberate acts. That's not collateral damage. There may have been a debate before on the lengths the IDF needed to go in war. The debate is now over. This is accordingly unlike any prior round of fighting with Gaza. Any call for restraint or de-escalation will not be heeded.


4. I stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel and extend my condolences for the lives lost in these attacks. I utterly condemn the attacks by Hamas terrorists on Israeli civilians.

On point 3, IMO this is to destabilize Israel. The political situation in Israel is already pretty dire, killing civilians is only going to destabilize politics further. The trust the people have in the IDF has been damaged massively. Hamas knows they can't defeat Israel, their implied aim (imo lol) is to hope to destabilize Israel as much as possible.

Feel bad for the Palestinian people to be honest. Either live in Gaza under a terrorist group that will have installations in your apartment block, or live in West Bank where Israel will colonize you.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

On point 3, IMO this is to destabilize Israel. The political situation in Israel is already pretty dire, killing civilians is only going to destabilize politics further. The trust the people have in the IDF has been damaged massively. Hamas knows they can't defeat Israel, their implied aim (imo lol) is to hope to destabilize Israel as much as possible

There is very little room for doubt about Iran's involvement in Hamas's general decision making, including in this war. In fact Hamas have said so clearly. I also assume others like Turkey and Russia may have received some indication due to their relationship with Hamas.
So your assessment may be partially true as it is likely politically driven.
But we must remember 2 things:
Hamas, PIJ, etc are not different to ISIS when it comes to their tactics, savagery, ideology. There is this common misconception that because Palestinians get sympathy and are, at worst, controversial, that they share some values with those sympathizing with them. To the contrary.
That is not to say the Palestinian you may meet abroad won't be nice and welcoming to you. But when it comes to Gaza and the J&S region (aka West Bank), there is a very legitimate reason to have walls, checkpoints, and military personnel. This isn't the first rampage on Israeli territory. The intifadas are still ingrained in our memory.
Therefore simple pleasure from the act is definitely a factor.

Second, Hamas should not want instability in Israel. Instability most likely means elections, and elections most likely mean a centrist coalition will form. These are far more hawkish toward the Palestinians and are generally security hard-liners, and are responsible for perhaps the best deterrence Israel ever had vs Hamas (2022 op Breaking Dawn). Had they been in the current government, I assume this disaster may have more likely been prevented, although it's impossible to not lay significant blame on the military's own decisions.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 2: Pardon my confusion

On point 3, IMO this is to destabilize Israel. The political situation in Israel is already pretty dire, killing civilians is only going to destabilize politics further.

5. The disaster that befell Israel on the holiday of Simchat Torah is the clear responsibility of one person: Benjamin Netanyahu.

​

(a) I predict that Netanyahu will lose power because of the disaster on Simchat Torah. And his governing coalition is doing more to destabilise Israel than Hamas can.​

​

(b) Hamas is convinced that capturing dozens of Israeli hostages will bring Israeli society to its knees and force the government to release all Palestinian prisoners, making Hamas the top Palestinian movement, toppling Fatah — I don’t think that will occur. That concept will now be tested by the IDF.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710900118931578972

(c) Prior to this, thousands of Israelis have been marching for “democracy and equality” across the country, with many even saying they would refuse military service because of this government’s authoritarian trends. As of today, as many of them announced they will halt their protests — they are answering the call to go to war with Hamas.​

The trust the people have in the IDF has been damaged massively.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710882033201754480

6. May the memory of the 26 be a blessing.

7. Throughout the past year, more Palestinians and Israelis have been killed than in any other year since the Second Intifada of the early 2000s. The ban-aid of IDF routinely raiding into Palestinian cities and refugee camps did not stop this attack. Yet, any medium term solution that moves towards achieving more security for the state of Israel must include the IDF. This will be a lessons learnt moment — like the learning that took place, after the 1973 failures.

Hamas knows they can't defeat Israel, their implied aim (imo lol) is to hope to destabilize Israel as much as possible.

8. What eventually replaces Netanyahu’s governing coalition may be far more competent —the return of a centrist coalition, if it occurs, will be more effective against Hamas.

Feel bad for the Palestinian people to be honest. Either live in Gaza under a terrorist group that will have installations in your apartment block, or live in West Bank where Israel will colonize you.

9. Death toll from Hamas' terrorist attack on Israel rises to 350. In view of the above, the Israeli electorate is frightened & the IDF was rendered less capable due to the refusal to serve under Netanyahu, for a time. But the call to war is being answered by the youth of Israel.

10. The dread Israelis are feeling right now, is a sliver of what Palestinians have been feeling on a daily basis. The number of Palestinians killed in the besieged Gaza Strip has risen to 256, health officials say. About 1,800 others were wounded. This is not an easy region to live for both sides of the divide.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710817995579113966

If this claim is true, then Hamas latest operations shown how corruption on Ukrainian War going to benefit extremists movement arsenal. Something that right wing advocacies like him already claim against Biden.

Either way, it is also shown Israel effort to corridor and isolate Gaza to push down and minimise external supplies, not working as hope for.

It is a longstanding Russian narrative that Ukraine is corrupt (true, albeit trending down) and sells weapons to "hostile" entities against western interests, including and primarily western weapons.

First, this is not something I have seen evidence for.

Second, Hamas and Russia are partners. They share expertise and technical knowledge, and cooperate politically. This video is therefore highly likely made by request of Russia, or to appease Russia, for the usual favors. Otherwise it makes no sense for Hamas to highlight Ukraine when statements about sources of weapons are so rare.

 

[Feanor]

Post 2 of 2: Pardon my confusion

5. The disaster that befell Israel on the holiday of Simchat Torah is the clear responsibility of one person: Benjamin Netanyahu.

I think it just might be the responsibility of more then one person. Someone in Iran and in Hamas leadership had to make decisions that factored in to this. And someone in IDF leadership had to drop the ball pretty hard to get caught with their pants down (literally in some cases).

9. Death toll from Hamas's terrorist attack on Israel rises to 350.

I think this is key. Emphasis mine. Hamas has clearly demonstrated that they are still fundamentally a terrorist organization. The current war was a great opportunity for them to rehabilitate themselves. They could behave like a civilized organization fighting a war. Instead they behaved like terrorists, taking hostages and executing civilians. It really spells their doom, though they may not realize it. Terrorists don't last. They can be outcasts for a long time, they can run countries for a short time. But they are ultimately the losers. They may kill many others on their way down and out, but they have only one way to go: down and out.

 

[Feanor]

It is a longstanding Russian narrative that Ukraine is corrupt (true, albeit trending down) and sells weapons to "hostile" entities against western interests, including and primarily western weapons.

First, this is not something I have seen evidence for.

Second, Hamas and Russia are partners. They share expertise and technical knowledge, and cooperate politically. This video is therefore highly likely made by request of Russia, or to appease Russia, for the usual favors. Otherwise it makes no sense for Hamas to highlight Ukraine when statements about sources of weapons are so rare.

Is there evidence of Hamas specifically partnering with Russia? If so, what is it? From what I know Russia partners with Hezbollah and Iran, but I haven't come across Hamas specifically. And the request to make such a video could easily have come through Iranian sources.

EDIT; Speak of the Hezbollah. They apparently just took credit for a strike in northern Israel that allegedly took out radars. Reportedly it was a mix of artillery and UAV strikes. While Hamas has been more successful then anyone could have reasonably expected, I think Hezbollah will be on the receiving end of much unpleasantness before all is said and done. I would be surprised if they don't come to regret this involvement.

Рыбарь

Ответственность за обстрел северной границы Израиля взяла на себя «Хезболла», сообщив о поражении радиолокационных станций в так называемом районе ферм Шебаа. В свою очередь, представители ЦАХАЛ заявили об ответных артиллерийских ударах и атаках беспилотника-камикадзе по объектам противника...

t.me

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Is there evidence of Hamas specifically partnering with Russia? If so, what is it? From what I know Russia partners with Hezbollah and Iran, but I haven't come across Hamas specifically. And the request to make such a video could easily have come through Iranian sources.

EDIT; Speak of the Hezbollah. They apparently just took credit for a strike in northern Israel that allegedly took out radars. Reportedly it was a mix of artillery and UAV strikes. While Hamas has been more successful then anyone could have reasonably expected, I think Hezbollah will be on the receiving end of much unpleasantness before all is said and done. I would be surprised if they don't come to regret this involvement.

Рыбарь

Ответственность за обстрел северной границы Израиля взяла на себя «Хезболла», сообщив о поражении радиолокационных станций в так называемом районе ферм Шебаа. В свою очередь, представители ЦАХАЛ заявили об ответных артиллерийских ударах и атаках беспилотника-камикадзе по объектам противника...

t.me

Hamas does not seem to have a tight partnership with Russia as both have relatively little to offer one another, but on the political level their relations are friendly. On the practical level, there is a ring of expertise sharing that includes Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Iran's proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. There isn't necessarily a uniform flow, neither are all involved at every instance. Sometimes it's North Korea developing products that it transfers to Iran. Sometimes it's from Russia instead. Sometimes Russia provides designs to North Korea which in turn provides directly to Iran's proxies, and so on. There are of course natural limitations to this similar to how western allies may limit certain technologies they sell to certain partners, e.g. US's limitation of aircraft types sold to UAE or Turkey.
It's very common for the IDF to analyze some Iranian or self made Hezbollah and Hamas munitions only to find traces of recent input from North Korea, Russia, and more rarely China. China is also involved but more often it's via weapons sold as-is, rather than expertise shared, therefore I excluded it initially. China also limits the quality of weapons sold to Iran's proxies.
I do not have evidence I can share. I know this from my service. It is important to disclose though that my knowledge is based on seeing bits of information and not some whole picture.


Regarding Hezbollah, all I could see is a news report of mortars (IDF claim), or mortars and rockets (Hezbollah claim). The IDF Spokesperson is known to provide information too slowly and apply excessive censorship, but lying would be very uncommon for them.
During my service I've been in numerous outposts along the Lebanese and Syrian border, including in the restricted areas naturally. I can tell with a high degree of confidence that systems like radars, although optimal at such altitudes, are not installed in such outposts. There simply isn't the manpower to operate and maintain them in such places. What is possible is some small, man-portable, defilade-penetrating radars to detect hostiles, installed on some mast along with optics. Personally I've only seen optics but much could be intelligently hidden.
Generally speaking, these things are constantly damaged. A few mortars won't do much beyond what's already done. Sniper fire does occur and I don't think I ever saw such instances publicly reported.

During one of my visits to the Biranit base along the Lebanon border, I entered a radio systems balcony (lots of antennas pointing into Lebanon). They were all holed, some looked almost shredded. Still worked though. So yeah, this isn't a rare occurrence.
As for what the IDF might do in response? I think this mild retaliation with a bit of artillery fire will be the end of it.
Yes, Israel is technically capable of occupying (temporarily) both Lebanon and Gaza simultaneously, but this would significantly harm both efforts. It only has enough quality units and equipment for one front (otherwise tanks and APCs will enter under-protected to one front), as Lebanon is more demanding than Gaza is.
For Gaza, the IDF may need to occupy it for a while which naturally will take more forces inside and additional ones ready to rotate. But in Lebanon the demands are far higher than in 2006. The IDF is likely to be tasked with a blitz as far north and as quickly as possible to deny Hezbollah its long range missile launch capability before it can unleash significant portions of it. This too will require large forces.
While the IDF may be able to fulfill its missions sub-optimally, I'm afraid that when it comes to Lebanon this luxury is fading.

Hezbollah fires mortars at Israel; IDF strike hits tent on Lebanon border in response

Iran-backed terror group announces it targeted Israeli military sites in Mount Dov region in solidarity with Hamas attack on south; no reports of injuries

www.timesofisrael.com

EDIT:
In case I misinterpreted you and you meant you don't know about Hamas-Russia political relations then they do have regular high level meetings. Due to Hamas not being a state, and instead the PA being the internationally recognized representative of Palestinians, this carries significant weight.

Russia’s Lavrov meets with Hamas politburo chief Haniyeh in Moscow

Invitation to political leader of terror group comes amid deteriorating ties between Moscow and Jerusalem; two discuss smoothing over Palestinian rift with Fatah

www.timesofisrael.com

EDIT 2:
I'm sure you've seen such claims already:

Hands that pushed Hamas attack forward are in Moscow

Opinion: The instability created by attack on Israel is intended to pull US attention, as well as resources, away from the war in Ukraine and prevent Israel-Saudi normalization

www.ynetnews.com

Mr Kemp is not the first I see making this claim. While it does seem to be based on assumption of alignment of interests (true), it does not seem to include any concrete evidential component. For now I'll let it rest here as a remark that it exists. Personally I see no connection beyond, again, an alignment of interests.

 

[Ananda]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1710925543686709730

Hezbollah video that claim they are entering the fray by attacking some Israel electronic surveillance posts in northern border. Whether this stay as cross border fire fight or more than that will remain to be seen. Israel, Hezbollah exchange artillery, rocket fire

From Indonesian sources I saw post claim from Indonesian in UN forces that saw so far they Hezbollah mostly driving around the border. Seems they are taunting and trying to provoke Israel forces. However it is easily change direction. Definitely they are increasing tempo of operation.

They could behave like a civilized organization fighting a war. Instead they behaved like terrorists, taking hostages and executing civilians.

Present Hamas are mostly base on Gaza, and they are much more radicals then those in West Bank. At least that's from what I heard from assessment of Indonesian medical volunteers that work in Indonesian Hospital in Gaza.

Palestinian Politics Timeline: Since the 2006 Election

The Palestinian movement split—politically, geographically, militarily and strategically—after the 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council elections. Fatah, a secular movement, led the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Hamas, an Islamist movement, ruled in Gaza.

www.usip.org

Who knows perhaps US and Israel should engage Hamas when they won 2006 ellection. Rather then try to keep Fatah controlling PA. Perhaps that will result more moderate thinking come out from Hamas leadership. For now, base some outsiders that that work in Gaza, radicalism is so ingrained. Gaza just already full of hate and anger. Now they just bring out more hate and anger from Israel sides. When both sides already in that state, rationality will be push down more.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Feel bad for the Palestinian people to be honest. Either live in Gaza under a terrorist group that will have installations in your apartment block, or live in West Bank where Israel will colonize you.

That is the very real Israeli dilemma. Amid these events, the average Israeli is out for blood. Many are outraged, sad, feel helpless, and so think of violent things about Gaza. But most are also able to contain themselves emotionally, not wishing ill upon Palestinian civilians either.

• To some extent, Palestinians must bear responsibility. Not as in being punished for the recent events, no. But to realize they alone are responsible for eliminating Hamas and other terrorists if they ever wish to secure a normal future for themselves.
• As someone who lives in a democracy I am relatively mentally softer. But I want to believe that if push comes to shove and my country turns into an oppressive dictatorship, despite my wish to create a family and have grandchildren one day, I will be willing to sacrifice myself in a potential civil war - because even though I didn't create this situation, it is my responsibility to take part in shaping my environment. My government's action, for better or worse, are also to some extent every citizen's responsibility as we, in general, elected them.
• So Palestinians should fight, violently, against Hamas and the likes of them, and yes it means many will die. But I see no other way for them to achieve their ultimate goals. This however cannot happen until they make some cultural changes which honestly seem too distant at this point.

5. The disaster that befell Israel on the holiday of Simchat Torah is…

(a) I predict that Netanyahu will lose power because of the disaster on Simchat Torah. And his governing coalition is doing more to destabilise Israel than Hamas can.​

To lose power, at least 4 members of Knesset must desert from the coalition, nullifying their majority. This typically triggers elections. However, Netanyahu was smart and created such a coalition system which pretty much ensures there will be no desertions.

First, single MKs cannot desert otherwise they will face significant sanctions. There must be multiple. I'm speaking from memory right now, I think 4 are the bare minimum.​

​

Second, being a coalition MK means lots of benefits, including many in the gray area, which are far too tempting.​

​

Third, due to the polarization, it's not at all obvious deserters will be greeted warmly in the current opposition, and so it's highly likely it would be a political career-ending action on their part.​

​

Four, some MKs in the opposition are increasingly friendly with the coalition, raising fears that even if some coalition MKs do desert, they can be offset by opposition deserters that may be offered ministerial posts.​

​

Five, while the first day was a total shock, the public doesn't have a long memory for such things and Netanyahu may attempt to redeem himself by commiting to an aggressive action in the following weeks. I am inclined to believe that this will work for him. The public continues to be polarized despite the events.​

(b) Hamas is convinced that capturing dozens of Israeli hostages will bring Israeli society to its knees and force the government to release all Palestinian prisoners, making Hamas the top Palestinian movement, toppling Fatah — I don’t think that will occur. That concept will now be tested by the IDF

That is an interesting assessment. After Gilad Shalit was exchanged for 1,027 terrorists, there was a public consensus that this was an acceptable price for a one-time occurrence, and that's it. I doubt there will be public acceptance for the release of thousands more.

But considering the number of kidnapped, this may be possible. Either way, I think the best way for Israel out of this dilemma is to negotiate their release first before initiating a ground campaign, otherwise Hamas will be incentivized to kill its hostages should they feel sufficiently threatened.

(c) Prior to this, thousands of Israelis have been marching for “democracy and equality” across the country, with many even saying they would refuse military service because of this government’s authoritarian trends. As of today, as many of them announced they will halt their protests — they are answering the call to go to war with Hamas.

I can corroborate this. As a protester and donor to the Brothers in Arms movement, we all received a message to halt protests and mobilize.

Hezbollah video that claim they are entering the fray by attacking some Israel electronic surveillance posts in northern border. Whether this stay as cross border fire fight or more than that will remain to be seen. From Indonesian sources I saw post claim from Indonesian in UN forces that saw so far they Hezbollah mostly driving around the border. Seems they are taunting and trying to provoke Israel forces. However it is easily change direction. Definitely they are increasing tempo of operation.

Hezbollah will be foolish to attempt anything serious while Israel is on a heightened alert and with total callup of reservists. Without the element of surprise, they cannot hope to repeat Hamas's success, and these small raids are definitely not contributing to a relaxed Israeli posture in the north.

• If they choose to enter the fray with just their missile forces, this will be a huge gamble and automatically give Israel some victory as Hezbollah would begin the war handicapped.
• Its potential to invade the north and occupy Israeli villages would be a force multiplier for its long range missile force as the IDF would be bogged down clearing out its own territory.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Worrying update:

1. There are now calls from the far right about a potential act of treason. This is a thought that could go through anyone's mind, regardless of political camp, but for some reason many people aligned with Netanyahu's camp have begun parroting this simultaneously and in force, effectively turning it into a partisan thought.

2. What this practically means is that instead of unity, Israel's public is still moving forward toward polarization and division. This is worrying indeed.

3. Lapid (center) offered Netanyahu (right) a narrow joint emergency government together with Gantz (center) for the duration of the crisis. This offer seems to have been torpedoed yet again as Netanyahu offered the same but with a wide government, essentially meaning all current coalition members and ministers stay in place. In short, no prospect of unity government for now. Hopefully this will change. People's lives trump everything.

4. In other notes, the death toll now exceeds 600. Since all English Israeli websites are live blogging (which breaks links), I'll just post a screenshot from Times of Israel:


EDIT:
If it wasn't clear yet, I am politically aligned with the Israeli center and vote Lapid whose key ideology is secular technocracy. So if there is any doubt whether this affects my judgment, then yes it certainly does.

 

[Feanor]

Hamas does not seem to have a tight partnership with Russia as both have relatively little to offer one another, but on the political level their relations are friendly. On the practical level, there is a ring of expertise sharing that includes Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Iran's proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas. There isn't necessarily a uniform flow, neither are all involved at every instance. Sometimes it's North Korea developing products that it transfers to Iran. Sometimes it's from Russia instead. Sometimes Russia provides designs to North Korea which in turn provides directly to Iran's proxies, and so on. There are of course natural limitations to this similar to how western allies may limit certain technologies they sell to certain partners, e.g. US's limitation of aircraft types sold to UAE or Turkey.
It's very common for the IDF to analyze some Iranian or self made Hezbollah and Hamas munitions only to find traces of recent input from North Korea, Russia, and more rarely China. China is also involved but more often it's via weapons sold as-is, rather than expertise shared, therefore I excluded it initially. China also limits the quality of weapons sold to Iran's proxies.
I do not have evidence I can share. I know this from my service. It is important to disclose though that my knowledge is based on seeing bits of information and not some whole picture.


Regarding Hezbollah, all I could see is a news report of mortars (IDF claim), or mortars and rockets (Hezbollah claim). The IDF Spokesperson is known to provide information too slowly and apply excessive censorship, but lying would be very uncommon for them.
During my service I've been in numerous outposts along the Lebanese and Syrian border, including in the restricted areas naturally. I can tell with a high degree of confidence that systems like radars, although optimal at such altitudes, are not installed in such outposts. There simply isn't the manpower to operate and maintain them in such places. What is possible is some small, man-portable, defilade-penetrating radars to detect hostiles, installed on some mast along with optics. Personally I've only seen optics but much could be intelligently hidden.
Generally speaking, these things are constantly damaged. A few mortars won't do much beyond what's already done. Sniper fire does occur and I don't think I ever saw such instances publicly reported.

During one of my visits to the Biranit base along the Lebanon border, I entered a radio systems balcony (lots of antennas pointing into Lebanon). They were all holed, some looked almost shredded. Still worked though. So yeah, this isn't a rare occurrence.
As for what the IDF might do in response? I think this mild retaliation with a bit of artillery fire will be the end of it.
Yes, Israel is technically capable of occupying (temporarily) both Lebanon and Gaza simultaneously, but this would significantly harm both efforts. It only has enough quality units and equipment for one front (otherwise tanks and APCs will enter under-protected to one front), as Lebanon is more demanding than Gaza is.
For Gaza, the IDF may need to occupy it for a while which naturally will take more forces inside and additional ones ready to rotate. But in Lebanon the demands are far higher than in 2006. The IDF is likely to be tasked with a blitz as far north and as quickly as possible to deny Hezbollah its long range missile launch capability before it can unleash significant portions of it. This too will require large forces.
While the IDF may be able to fulfill its missions sub-optimally, I'm afraid that when it comes to Lebanon this luxury is fading.

Hezbollah fires mortars at Israel; IDF strike hits tent on Lebanon border in response

Iran-backed terror group announces it targeted Israeli military sites in Mount Dov region in solidarity with Hamas attack on south; no reports of injuries

www.timesofisrael.com

EDIT:
In case I misinterpreted you and you meant you don't know about Hamas-Russia political relations then they do have regular high level meetings. Due to Hamas not being a state, and instead the PA being the internationally recognized representative of Palestinians, this carries significant weight.

Russia’s Lavrov meets with Hamas politburo chief Haniyeh in Moscow

Invitation to political leader of terror group comes amid deteriorating ties between Moscow and Jerusalem; two discuss smoothing over Palestinian rift with Fatah

www.timesofisrael.com

EDIT 2:
I'm sure you've seen such claims already:

Hands that pushed Hamas attack forward are in Moscow

Opinion: The instability created by attack on Israel is intended to pull US attention, as well as resources, away from the war in Ukraine and prevent Israel-Saudi normalization

www.ynetnews.com

Mr Kemp is not the first I see making this claim. While it does seem to be based on assumption of alignment of interests (true), it does not seem to include any concrete evidential component. For now I'll let it rest here as a remark that it exists. Personally I see no connection beyond, again, an alignment of interests.

I appreciate the links. I was in fact not aware of the meetings you mentioned. This is exactly what I was asking about, thank you.

 

[Feanor]

I'm going to start this as a single thread dedicated to the topic. There is clearly much to discuss and it's unlikely to end quickly which means there is likely going to be more to discuss in the future.

All posts consolidated here from other threads.

 

[Feanor]

Presumably this small collections is the result of surprise but nonetheless it raises questions. If you're correct we won't see buckets more of videos like these come out. If we do, that indicates that the defense you mention aren't as effective as is necessary to shut down strikes like these.

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To illustrate my point, it's footage like this that makes me wonder;

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t.me

An entire artillery battery set up on line in the open. Minimal dispersion, no concealment. They're so well covered by EW and air defenses that there is no chance that Hezbollah will wreck the entire battery with a mix of artillery, rockets, and drones? What we saw in Ukraine is maximum dispersion, positions for individual guns, not batteries, massive concealment efforts, etc. All of this is absent. And this unit is allegedly returning fire on Hezbollah positions, who are a much more serious opponent then Hamas and has plenty of rocket artillery, UAVs, and in the past even improvised cruise missiles.

EDIT: More photos.

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[Big_Zucchini]

To illustrate my point, it's footage like this that makes me wonder;

Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition

t.me

An entire artillery battery set up on line in the open. Minimal dispersion, no concealment. They're so well covered by EW and air defenses that there is no chance that Hezbollah will wreck the entire battery with a mix of artillery, rockets, and drones? What we saw in Ukraine is maximum dispersion, positions for individual guns, not batteries, massive concealment efforts, etc. All of this is absent. And this unit is allegedly returning fire on Hezbollah positions, who are a much more serious opponent then Hamas and has plenty of rocket artillery, UAVs, and in the past even improvised cruise missiles.

I was wondering about the same thing a while back, and was met by answers that the artillery CONOPS is classified and cannot be debated. Regardless, if for any moment this situation exists, then it is a hazard.

Being dispersed and hidden like Russians and Ukrainians do with their artillery comes at the cost of fire output and general tempo. It makes it harder to relocate or fire very large volleys. The IDF may want to maximize fire output at the expense of survivability. But I do believe that now that both Hamas and Hezbollah have loitering munitions, there is more potential to lose here than to gain anything.

Furthermore, all vehicles photographed are thin skinned and will at least be severely damaged, and all troops KIA or severely wounded, if anything causes ammo detonation there.

There is this cultural tendency in the IDF to avoid adapting techniques if a holistic technological solution is on the horizon, and I think this is the same case here.

The M109 and Alfa are pending replacement by the Roem (Elbit Sigma) and HEMTT respectively, and that will allow using a new doctrine that utilizes longer range and higher RoF, but I'm not sure the IDF will take it as far as needed, and their induction into the armed forces is unlikely to end before 2030 with all the budget cuts.

 

[Feanor]

I was wondering about the same thing a while back, and was met by answers that the artillery CONOPS is classified and cannot be debated. Regardless, if for any moment this situation exists, then it is a hazard.

Of course they're wrong though. It may be classified. But it absolutely can be debated.

Being dispersed and hidden like Russians and Ukrainians do with their artillery comes at the cost of fire output and general tempo. It makes it harder to relocate or fire very large volleys.

I believe it makes it harder to provide the same output but not impossible. It requires greater emphasis on training and coordination. Comms between SP howitzers aren't done by voice. What's the difference in comms between 10m apart and 110m apart? If the coordination is done by digital comms with good crypto, the dispersion shouldn't matter. Concealment is an issue, and there is a debate about time spent concealing, but at the very least you could have camouflage on the vehicles, ideally with a built in thermal shroud. Barracuda MCS comes to mind, as does Nakidka. And what would the problem be with parking the vehicles closer to the tree line or even driving into the tree line before firing? Would that have a substantial impact to fire output and tempo?

The IDF may want to maximize fire output at the expense of survivability. But I do believe that now that both Hamas and Hezbollah have loitering munitions, there is more potential to lose here than to gain anything.
Furthermore, all vehicles photographed are thin skinned and will at least be severely damaged, and all troops KIA or severely wounded, if anything causes ammo detonation there.

And their fire mission would be disrupted creating a gap in artillery support for infantry units relying on this battery to be their on-call fire support. It's not just about the damage to this element, it's about what that does to the overall effort.

There is this cultural tendency in the IDF to avoid adapting techniques if a holistic technological solution is on the horizon, and I think this is the same case here.
The M109 and Alfa are pending replacement by the Roem (Elbit Sigma) and HEMTT respectively, and that will allow using a new doctrine that utilizes longer range and higher RoF, but I'm not sure the IDF will take it as far as needed, and their induction into the armed forces is unlikely to end before 2030 with all the budget cuts.

Longer range then what can be reached with loitering munitions? Israel is not a large country. Where do they plan on parking these systems? In the Mediterranean?

 

[Todjaeger]

I believe it makes it harder to provide the same output but not impossible. It requires greater emphasis on training and coordination. Comms between SP howitzers aren't done by voice. What's the difference in comms between 10m apart and 110m apart? If the coordination is done by digital comms with good crypto, the dispersion shouldn't matter. Concealment is an issue, and there is a debate about time spent concealing, but at the very least you could have camouflage on the vehicles, ideally with a built in thermal shroud. Barracuda MCS comes to mind, as does Nakidka. And what would the problem be with parking the vehicles closer to the tree line or even driving into the tree line before firing? Would that have a substantial impact to fire output and tempo?

Some of it might depend on the specifics of the comms systems used. For instance, some comms systems used to move data suffer signal attenuation when used for distances over 100 m. Therefore the difference between 10 m and 110 m apart could very well be that one unit can receive fire mission data, whilst the other cannot. The same could potentially hold true if directional transceivers are used (RF, laser, etc.) and even intervening terrain or buildings could potentially cause issues. In such cases, the dispersion does indeed matter because the units still need to be able to communicate with each other, as well as whoever/whatever is providing the fire direction control or calling in the fire missions.

 

[koxinga]

The retribution has started.

Israeli army seals off Gaza Strip in a 'complete siege'

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant ordered all water, food, electricity and gas to be blocked in this small enclave overcrowded with 2.3 million people.

www.lemonde.fr

While I understand the anger and sentiment, statements like this that dehumanises the enemy is a dangerous slippery slope to justify atrocities.
What's next? Concentration camps? Because that sounds very close to it. It is a no win situation for all concerned.

"We are fighting animals and are acting accordingly," Gallant said in Hebrew.