The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

ngatimozart

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While that may be, this wouldn’t make a a lot of sense. I would think that Poland of all places has likely the strongest support on providing assistance to Ukraine (partially due to the very party in power raising the stakes and expectations from the populace).

Edit: This is my opinion only. And I’ll have to come back to this once I do some reading. Seems like a bit of a political blunder, frankly. But who knows.
Politicians; the bane of militaries worldwide. Haven't found a decent use for politicians yet.

A discussion on how Poland could ship South Korean tanks to Ukraine. I don't know if the South Koreans would be overly keen on the idea.

UKR claims of a massive UKR missile and UAV attack n Crimea. Also shows the Russian response to yesterdays attack. It also makes the claim that the VMF have withdrawn all of their Black Sea fleet ships from Crimea to Russian Black Sea ports. They may have to move them further than Sochi because UKR have attacked targets in the vicinity of Sochi using missiles and UAVs. I don't know how reliable these claims are.
 

Feanor

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Ukraine struck the Black Sea Fleet HQ. Reportedly 5 misisles were intercepted, but some clearly got through. Reportedly so far there's 1 KIA and 6 WIA. This doesn't appear to be a final count, just what's currently released. A US RQ-4B and P-8 were spotted over the Black Sea directly prior to this. The last info we have is that the fire is still burning in the building.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Ukraine struck the Black Sea Fleet HQ. Reportedly 5 misisles were intercepted, but some clearly got through. Reportedly so far there's 1 KIA and 6 WIA. This doesn't appear to be a final count, just what's currently released.
With all the drone attacks the past couple of days, it was predictable a missile strike was coming, the question was where.

A US RQ-4B and P-8 were spotted over the Black Sea directly prior to this. The last info we have is that the fire is still burning in the building.
I keep wondering if the Russians are going to bring one of these down eventually and this is how thing things potentially escalate.
 

Redshift

Active Member
With all the drone attacks the past couple of days, it was predictable a missile strike was coming, the question was where.


I keep wondering if the Russians are going to bring one of these down eventually and this is how thing things potentially escalate.
Do you remember the "accident" when a Russian pilot engaged a UK spy plane?

This is the latest report on the incident

BBC News - Rogue Russian pilot tried to shoot down RAF aircraft in 2022

After that I believe that fully armed typhoons were used to escort the intelligence gathering planes, I don't know if that is still happening though.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Yes, I remember.

Thanks for the link. I haven’t read it previously. Crazy how close we are to potentially something bigger than any of us can handle.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
Yes, I remember.

Thanks for the link. I haven’t read it previously. Crazy how close we are to potentially something bigger than any of us can handle.
we can handle it, the real question is do we want to. A lot of us would like the opportunity, but a lot say no. my war was Viet Nam. I wasn’t gung back then, but realize this is something that we can do but something we will be forced to do sooner or later.,

i.’d read Putin’s speeches.


Art
 

ngatimozart

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The Russian admiral of the Black Sea fleet has been reported killed with other officers by the strike on the Black Sea headquarters
Russia's Black Sea commander alleged dead after strike against fleet's HQ | Sandboxx
Ukrainian reports on it.


Also claims that UKR have inserted armoured forces beyond the Russian third line of defence.

In other news
Ukrainian forces carried out drone and cruise missile strikes on occupied Crimea and significantly damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Command headquarters in Sevastopol on September 22.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) stated that Ukrainian forces launched a successful strike on the Russian BSF Command headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea on September 22.[1] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces used Storm Shadow cruise missiles to conduct the strike, and social media footage of the headquarters indicates significant damage to the building.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses shot down five Ukrainian missiles and acknowledged that the Ukrainian strike damaged a building of BSF Command headquarters.[3] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces launched a drone strike preceding the missile strike, and the Russian MoD claimed that Russian air defenses shot down two Ukrainian drones on the western coast of Crimea on the morning of September 22.[4]
The Russian information space heavily focused its attention on the Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol on September 22.
One Russian milblogger complained about Russian authorities’ inability to control the spread of Ukrainian information about the consequences of the strike, and other milbloggers criticized Russian authorities and the Russian military for not retaliating sufficiently.[8] Another Russian milblogger claimed that such Ukrainian strikes on Crimea are expected as Ukraine and its Western partners consider Crimea to be Ukrainian territory.[9] Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Western partners helped Ukrainian forces target the BSF Command headquarters.[10]
Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut and reportedly advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 22.
Geolocated footage published on September 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced southeast of Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[11] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces slightly advanced north of Novoprokopivka and are currently about 800 meters away from the settlement’s outskirts, a claim that generally corresponds to ISW’s assessment of the closest approach of the Ukrainian counter-offensive to the settlement.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) direction and offensive actions in the Bakhmut direction, exhausting and inflicting losses on Russian forces along the entire front.[13]
The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a new security assistance package on September 21, providing Ukraine with $325 million worth of military equipment.
The DoD package includes AIM-9M missiles for air defense; additional ammunition for HIMARS systems; Avenger air defense systems; anti-drone machine guns; 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, including dual-purpose improved conventional munitions (DPICM); Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles; Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems; over three million rounds of small arms ammunition; light tactical vehicles; demolition munitions for obstacle clearing; and spare parts, maintenance equipment, and other field equipment.
The US will reportedly soon provide long-range army tactical missile systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine.
Four unnamed US government officials told NBC News in an article published on September 22 that US President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the US would provide Ukraine with “a small number of long-range missiles.”[15] The officials did not state when the US would announce the provision of ATACMS or when the US would deliver them to Ukraine.[16] One US official told NBC News that US officials are still discussing the type of missile and the number of missiles the US would provide to Ukraine.[17] Several unnamed people familiar with ongoing deliberations on ATACMS also told the Washington Post that the Biden administration plans to provide Ukraine with a version of ATACMS armed with cluster bomblets rather than a single (unitary) warhead.[18] The Washington Post reported that cluster-armed ATACMS have a range of up to 190 miles (depending on the version) and could allow Ukraine to strike Russian military positions far into the rear.
Russian efforts to intensify divisions between Ukraine and its Central European partners appear to have suffered a setback as Polish Prime Minister Andrzej Duda reiterated the strength of Polish-Ukrainian relations on September 22.
Duda clarified Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morwiecki’s September 21 statement that Poland would no longer transfer weapons to Ukraine and explained that Poland would continue to fulfill weapons supplies agreements with Ukraine but would not transfer new weapons that Poland purchases for its own military.[19] Duda also stated that the potential conflict between the two countries regarding the export of Ukrainian grain along European land routes does not “significantly affect” the two countries’ relationship.[20] ISW has previously assessed that Russian strikes on Ukrainian port and grain infrastructure are part of a Russian campaign to damage Ukrainian relations with its Western neighbors, and Poland’s swift reiteration of its commitment to Ukraine indicates that this campaign is not succeeding as much as Moscow likely intends.[21]
A Ukrainian military official swiftly denied Russian claims that Wagner Group forces are operating in occupied Kherson Oblast.
Several Russian sources claimed on September 22 that Wagner personnel arrived in combat areas in occupied Kherson Oblast and that assault troops are distributed across sectors of the Kherson Oblast frontline.[22] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk denied this claim on September 22 and stated that Russian sources likely disseminate such claims in order to improve Russian morale.[23] Humenyuk also stated that Chechen forces and Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) forces arrived in occupied Kherson ”a few weeks ago” in order to prevent Russian military personnel from deserting.[24] Russian milbloggers may be claiming that Wagner forces have arrived in occupied Kherson Oblast amid rumors that Wagner forces will return to hostilities in Ukraine operating alongside Rosgvardia.[25]
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) is reportedly investigating high-ranking Rosgvardia officials over their potential involvement in Wagner Group’s rebellion on June 24.
A Russian insider source claimed on September 22 that the FSB is investigating Rosgvardia officials after Rosgvardia reportedly allowed Wagner to “hide” shells and equipment in Rosgvardia’s warehouses immediately after the Wagner rebellion and during the period of Wagner’s disarmament.[26] The source claimed that an unspecified Rosgvardia general with the first name “Roman” oversaw the storage of up to four large containers of Wagner military equipment near a Rosgvardia training ground in the area of “Kazachy Stan” (likely a settlement in an unspecified region of Russia).[27] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin likely aimed to consolidate Russia‘s internal security apparatus around Rosgvardia following the Wagner rebellion.[28] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on June 27 that it would prepare to transfer Wagner’s heavy military equipment to unspecified elements of the Russian military on the same day that Rosgvardia Head Viktor Zolotov announced that Rosgvardia would receive heavy weapons and tanks.[29] The Russian government also officially transferred the “Grom” special units of the Russian Federal Drug Control Service (of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs) to the control of Rosgvardia in July.[30]
Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kupyansk area, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk Oblast and reportedly advanced in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border area.
The Russian government is reportedly planning to increase defense spending by 4.4 trillion rubles ($46 billion) in 2024.
 
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Feanor

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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Its not a coincidence that Ukraine has a bottomless stash of money to call on, look at the attitude of Ukrainian officials towards their European colleagues, not very nice considering the capital EU has poured into this war, Ukraine is telling EU shut up, we are doing the job for you.
Bottomless stash ? What coincidence ?

what am trying to say is that, it is dangerous to push a nuclear armed country into to desperation.
RU is the only one pushing anything. If RU gets desperate because their conventional forces are to inept to secure the intended mission, maybe they should crawl back to RU.

Because Putin is not responding to global hawks in the Black Sea or star link, doesn’t guarantee that he wouldn’t respond in future.
Is there any guarantee that Putin won’t use nukes?
Putin is a rational actor. He isnt going to start WW3 over something that is not a menace to RU. RU was fine before invading UKR, and they will continue to be fine after they leave.

or is a nuclear war winnable now?
I don’t see how you can’t see that we can wake up one morning to the mother of all escalation.
Why do u want to play Nuclear Roulette with the Russians? I don’t
RU is playing roulette, no one else. Go complain to Putin for starting a new cold war.

"Dont poke the bear" is a classic St.Peterburg line.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group

Rybar claim that practically no breakthrough movement from Ukrainian Forces in Soledar Zaporozhye front. Despite UA keep trying to do that. This is seems as counter claim toward Ukrainian online claim that saying they have make breakthrough on Russian defenses.

Also Russian claim they are making offensive in Blacksea on Ukrainian Zmeiny Island. That small island that already change hand several times. Seems Russian see this as transit base for recent UAV attack toward Crimea. Will see if Russia going to use Black Sea fleet for more offensive attack.

Russian telegram also claim more missile and uav attacks toward Odessa facilities including AB. This's seems as counter reaction toward recent attack on Sevastopol.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Rybar claim that practically no breakthrough movement from Ukrainian Forces in Soledar Zaporozhye front. Despite UA keep trying to do that. This is seems as counter claim toward Ukrainian online claim that saying they have make breakthrough on Russian defenses.
I don’t believe there was any breakthrough. The defence lines certainly appear to be (maybe) raptured at Robotino/Voerbove though, but definitely no breakthrough. At least that is my understanding from reading “news” from both sides.

As for Snake Island, I believe it only changed hands twice, when Russians captured it and then when they gave it up “in good faith” of negotiations that never happened.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The defence lines certainly appear to be (maybe) raptured at Robotino/Voerbove though, but definitely no breakthrough.
That's why Rybar and Russian telegram is more counter claim toward Ukrainian claim, like this one that's being shown by several Western media.


I don't read Russian thus only relied with Google Translate. Seems Rybar claim related to overall Zaporozhye front.


for Snake Island, I believe it only changed hands twice, when Russians captured it and then when they gave it up “in good faith” of negotiations that never happened.
I read claim from Russian sources that they manage to repulse Ukrainian landing parties to the island at least twice, after their (Russian) Marines left the island. So perhaps you are right it is only twice, but perhaps it is also the definition on whose holding the island.
 

ngatimozart

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HI Sutton has written in Naval News that he believes that the improved Kilo Class sub, Rostov-On-Don is in his words gone. He provides his analysis and conclusions.


Also a 2nd ship loaded with Ukrainian grain has made it to Istanbul. It avoided international waters sailing through Ukrainian, Romanian, Bukgarian and Turkish territorial waters.

Russia has categorically refused to reonsider any grain deal.

Two separate UKR claims about advances on the battlefield. Usual caveats apply.

.
 

ngatimozart

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Russia has created its own analogue of the Switchblade UAV.

UKR repairing its AD systems in Donetsk.

Claims that UKR managed to kill high ranking Russian commander in its attack on the Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ in Sevastapol.

Claim that UKR attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastapol will force them to withdraw the fleet from Crimea.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Norway donates around 50 NM199 (M548) to Ukraine. They have been in storage for quite some time however they have now being refurbished and will be shipped to Ukraine (some news reports say they already arrived). Norway donates cargo carriers to Ukraine - regjeringen.no

In other news, analyst Mike Martin present his thoughts on the current situation and what may come next:
I have followed Dr. Martin since the full invasion and he has a quite impressive track record in making predictions on this war (in my personal, layman's opinion.)
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
UKR has certainly been expending a lot of effort on the black sea fleet lately. While the results are satisfying, I have to wonder why they are focusing on naval elements in what is a more needful ground campaign.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
HI Sutton has written in Naval News that he believes that the improved Kilo Class sub, Rostov-On-Don is in his words gone. He provides his analysis and conclusions.

Considering the damage, that seems a reasonable conclusion. As he says, the big hole in the hull looks as if it was caused by an internal explosion, probably from the second stage of a Storm Shadow/Scalp warhead exploding inside the sub, after the first stage has punched through.

The Storm Shadow warhead has a precursor stage with a shaped charge which is meant to punch a hole through reinforced concrete (but which also works pretty well on steel plates), & a second stage which goes through that hole & then explodes. As Mr Sutton says, that explosion is likely to have wrecked the interior of the sub: it was powerful enough to curl back outer hull plates around the hull. So we're talking about replacing a large section of the pressure hull (how much will have been weakened beyond the visible damage?) & a more or less complete replacement of the interior. And first, the sub would have to be moved to a shipyard where that could be done. How would that be done?

It looks very likely to me that it'd be easier & cheaper to just build a new one.
 
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