The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Ananda · Aug 20, 2023

Ukraine taking heavy casualties 10 weeks into its counteroffensive

There is mounting evidence that Ukraine has been taking heavy casualties in its counteroffensive, which began roughly ten weeks ago.

abcnews.go.com

vikingatespam said:
the middle of the road approach is to assume PAX losses are both sides are comparable - which at this point (from various professional estimates) are in the 250,000 range (K+W)

The idea of Ukrainian have better casualties or 'attrition' level then Russian, is now being contested even by some Western Mainstream Media. It is no doubt Ukrainian military not only being underestimated by Russian but also by Western POV in the beginning of this war. However Russian pull back from other parts of Ukrainian last year (and consolidated on four oblast presently), and many in West attributes as Ukrainian military superiority and Russian incompetence is also not as straight forward simple like that.

Ukrainian is the second republic in USSR. So it also means they have the 2nd resources smaller only to Russia as 1st republic (the order more to the level of capabilities of each USSR Republic). So this means Ukrainian even without Western help can inflict big enough damages to Russian, let alone now with Western full backing. However when we see all this offensive mostly use new recruits, it also means most original Ukrainian Army in Donbas already depleted. Those units was and still is the most trained ones in Ukrainian armyat the war.

So the arguments of one side has better attrition level in this war, just simply not add up. I have said in this thread, that I read all attrition calculation on each sides, and then compare it on the reality in the ground. If One side have better or superiority on attrition level then the adversaries (as each sides claim), then they will shown on the progress in the grounds.

Thus when the war now slugging on changing position level, when 200m advance is claim as breakthrough, then it is shown they are basically become meat grinders to each other. So unless one sides can afford more attrition level then the others, this war going to end up like frozen conflict in Korean DMZ.

Dead Money · Aug 20, 2023

Ananda said:
Ukraine taking heavy casualties 10 weeks into its counteroffensive

There is mounting evidence that Ukraine has been taking heavy casualties in its counteroffensive, which began roughly ten weeks ago.

abcnews.go.com

The idea of Ukrainian have better casualties or 'attrition' level then Russian, is now being contested even by some Western Mainstream Media. It is no doubt Ukrainian military not only being underestimated by Russian but also by Western POV in the beginning of this war. However Russian pull back from other parts of Ukrainian last year (and consolidated on four oblast presently), and many in West attributes as Ukrainian military superiority and Russian incompetence is also not as straight forward simple like that.

Ukrainian is the second republic in USSR. So it also means they have the 2nd resources smaller only to Russia as 1st republic (the order more to the level of capabilities of each USSR Republic). So this means Ukrainian even without Western help can inflict big enough damages to Russian, let alone now with Western full backing. However when we see all this offensive mostly use new recruits, it also means most original Ukrainian Army in Donbas already depleted. Those units was and still is the most trained ones in Ukrainian armyat the war.

So the arguments of one side has better attrition level in this war, just simply not add up. I have said in this thread, that I read all attrition calculation on each sides, and then compare it on the reality in the ground. If One side have better or superiority on attrition level then the adversaries (as each sides claim), then they will shown on the progress in the grounds.

Thus when the war now slugging on changing position level, when 200m advance is claim as breakthrough, then it is shown they are basically become meat grinders to each other. So unless one sides can afford more attrition level then the others, this war going to end up like frozen conflict in Korean DMZ.

There have been a lot of highly optimistic claims about casualty rates thrown around, and the truth is we don't have reliable data on Ukrainian or Russian casualties. Claims of consistent 3 to 1 or 5 to 1 across an entire conflict are pretty silly.

We don't know how attrition will play out for each side over the coming months and years, there is a lot of mobilisation capacity left in Russia if their domestic politics will allow it, and there is capacity in Western MIC and stockpiles to increase support if the domestic politics allow for it. And neither side is even close to exhausted manpower from a total war conscription sense.

I think we need to be cautious about thinking this is headed towards frozen conflict while the fighting is still at this intensity, regardless of whether ground is changing hands. The front was static for several years on the Western Front during world war 1 - but the fighting was nowhere near frozen.

As long as the fighting and losses continue at an intensity higher than the long term sustainable replacement rate for required equipment for one or both sides, then we haven't reached equilibrium of comparative force capacity.

Ananda · Aug 20, 2023

Dead Money said:
long as the fighting and losses continue at an intensity higher than the long term sustainable replacement rate for required equipment for one or both sides, then we haven't reached equilibrium of comparative force capacity.

Agree, that's why I said "unless one sides can afford more attrition level then other's" as precondition this war going to reach frozen conflict like in Korea. Yes we still not know yet the level of attrition that each sides can bear.

Early in this war, I put in this thread market expectations that the conflict will goes until Q4 last year. This base on assumption on what attrition level that Ukrainian able to withstand, and Russia willing to withstand. Later level of Western will to supplies and Russian will to counter react toward that additional Western supplies, clearly not being projected enough before.

Still in the end attrition level will reach saturate level either on both sides or the other way around when one sides reach saturate threshold first. Do remember that in WW1, changes of fortune to the allies related to US entry. While in East actually the news are not good for the allies. Russian Empire not having enough traction with the German, while British lead Gallipoli operation also bogged down against the Ottoman Turks. Without US entry, the German Empire can still have enough juice to force the allies for armistice.

That saturation threshold that's still not clear yet from both sides in this war. However personally, until something big (in term of supplies commitment) coming from either sides, I don't see much progress on the ground except more position sludges. So, yes it's still can go either way, but personally I just got feeling (base on the progress and level of commitment on either sides shown so far), this is going to be a frozen ones.

swerve · Aug 20, 2023

When the USA joined the war, the Gallipoli operation had been over for more than a year & the British had just captured Baghdad, where they stopped for logistical reasons & higher priorities elsewhere, not because of Ottoman opposition. The Ottoman attempts to capture or disrupt the Suez canal had failed completely, & they'd been pushed out of Sinai. The Ottomans were losing their grip on Hejaz. And this was cheap for the British. Gallipoli had been an expensive blunder, but much had been achieved since it, & Ottoman ability to launch offensives seems to have ceased to exist.

Ananda · Aug 20, 2023

The main point, without US entrance to WW1, British and French will be in stalemate against German Empire. With Bolshevick revolution put death warrant for Russian Empire, without Russian Empire taking about half of German strength, German Empire still can force allies (especially French and UK) for negotiated settlement.

What if Wilson instead entering the War, then goes to Allies and Central Powers and force them to negotiate. What if Wilson say to each of them, parties that won't negotiate will face US in the war.

What If America Never Entered World War I?

The biq question of the day.

nationalinterest.org

If the U.S. had stayed out of the war, it seems likely there would have been some kind of negotiated settlement. Neither the Allied Powers (France, Britain, Russia, Italy, Japan, and several smaller states) nor the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria) would have gained everything they wanted from a negotiated settlement. Both sides would have complained.

That article opinion can be argue, but it is also shown realities that neither side have enough 'juice' to force other sides. Thus stalemate seems what will happen. Yes, British has force Ottoman from much of middle east, but not enough to force Ottoman surrender. Austro Hungary being clobbered by Italian, but they are also still force to be recon with. US that broke the stalemate.

Back to this Ukrainian war, stalemate also can happen base on the progress of the war, unless one side got sudden advantages with situations on supplies/logistics . Just like the Allies got with the entrence of US in the war. Both Ukrainian (with NATO supplies) and Russian don't reach stalemate yet, cause each sides still have enough supplies to spend on the war. However it won't be forever. So again, either one side can have sudden influx of supplies to force the others, or both side simply exhausted in the end, and need to reach settlement that neither side satisfied.

Something that I agree with the article, could happen in WW1, if US not entrer the war. Remember, we still don't know whose going to win US ellection.

John Fedup · Aug 20, 2023

Lots of variables that could alter the course of this war. Certainly a GOP election win in 2024 would be a big one, especially if Trump reclaimed the oval office, although his legal troubles are making this less likely. China would almost certainly provide military kit to Russia if their MIC faltered to an extent that causes significant Russian instability. This in turn might result in Western escalation followed possibly by a Chinese escalation by invading Taiwan to distract NATO (along with the desire to "reclaim" Taiwan). Hopefully some adults can prevent any of this actually occurring.

vikingatespam · Aug 20, 2023

Dead Money said:
There have been a lot of highly optimistic claims about casualty rates thrown around, and the truth is we don't have reliable data on Ukrainian or Russian casualties. Claims of consistent 3 to 1 or 5 to 1 across an entire conflict are pretty silly.

We have -some- info on RU losses, from various sources:

- DPR was reporting its K+W for some time (stopped in Dec ?)
- RU VDV quotes on their losses
- Wagner reported its losses
- Meduza claims to have corroborated at least 27K RU KIA (which they claim is biased low by at least 2:1, and doesnt count LPR/DPR)

Overall, I would guess UKR loss rates are generally better than RU (based on tank losses - and yes, thats probably weak statistically by now), except for possibly now and when taking Kherson.

Bob53 · Aug 20, 2023

Dozens Of F-16s Were Just Officially Pledged To Ukraine — The Drive

The jets will come from the Netherlands and Denmark, but there is no solid timetable yet for their delivery.

apple.news

I wonder how they will be put to use? CAS, Air to Air? Deep strike

Bob53 · Aug 20, 2023

Dozens Of F-16s Were Just Officially Pledged To Ukraine — The Drive

The jets will come from the Netherlands and Denmark, but there is no solid timetable yet for their delivery.

apple.news

I wonder how they will be put to use? CAS, Air to Air? Deep strike

Feanor · Aug 20, 2023

Update.

We have two general areas of interest; Zaporzohye and Oskol. No major changes in either, continuing trends from before.

Zaporozhye front.

Heavy fighting is continuing in Zaporozhye where Ukrainian forces continue to gain ground, albeit very slowly, around Urozhaynoe and Rabotino areas. Near Rabotino Ukrainian forces have finally been able to secure a foothold east of the village (east not north-east). However a Russia counter-attack is practically guaranteed and it remains to be seen if this foothold remains intact. Near Urozhaynoe Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of the southern outskirts. At this point the north side of the village is in Ukrainian hands, the rest of it is no-man's land, and the positions south of it are held by Russian forces. The biggest piece of news is that Ukraine appears to have committed additional reserves in Zaporozhye including the 82nd Assault Bde, riding Marders and Strykers. These aren't quite all of Ukraine's reserves, but these are definitely forces that were meant for exploiting a breakthrough. In all likelihood Ukraine has given up on achieving a breakthrough and is at this point simply trying to gain as much ground as possible. This makes a certain amount of sense since literally 0 progress might lead to uncomfortable questions from western backers. However this will continue to be very costly. At this point Ukraine's losses in vehicles from the fighting are in the hundreds. Compensating them will require another massive batch of aid packages. However there's no reason to think they won't be forthcoming. Additionally it appears Ukrainian forces were briefly able to enter the northern outskirts of Rabotino but were pushed out.

Rabotino-Orekhov Axis

Russian FAB strikes against allegedly Ukrainian infantry. Presumably these are gliding bombs. One of the problems with holding captured Russian strong points is that Russia knows exactly where they are, and can hit them.

Colonelcassad

Ореховское направление - русская авиация работает ФАБами по живой силе противника. @frontbird

t.me

Ukrainian forces on the northern outskirts of Rabotino getting hit.

Colonelcassad

Запорожское направление. Противник силами пехоты зашел в северную часть Работино, пытается подвезти технику и БК, по ним точечно отрабатывает артиллерия и расчеты ПТУР. @rusich_army

t.me

Allegedly a PT-91 destroyed south-east of Rabotino. If accurate, that's the greatest Ukrainian penetration in this area yet. I think the second video shows the strike itself, and the destroyed tank in the photo does look like a PT-91. The PT-91 is an upgrade of the T-72M1, so unless the Poles did something special with the armor, it's under-armored even by 1980's standards. The M and M1 variants were notoriously undearmored intentionally as an export version downgrade.

Рубрика от Ледка

PT-91 Twardy - уничтожен Юго-восточнее с. Работино в Запорожской области. Геопривязка LA: (47.436194, 35.895111) Поставленный Польшей танк, подбит из ПТРК. Источник

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилет FPV-дрона по украинскому танку польского производства PT-91 Twardy и такой же сожженный танк, на фоне которого позируют еще не задвухсоченные боевики ВСУ. Радостные "селфи" на фоне собственной же техники, уничтоженной русскими минами\дронами\артиллерией — это, вообще, одна из самых...

t.me

Allegedly an M-777 getting hit near Orekhov. I can't make out what the artillery piece is but it definitely looks like artillery and there appear to be secondary detonations once it burns.

Рубрика от Ледка

115-я подтвержденная М777 - уничтожена В Ореховском районе Запорожской области. Расчет БпЛА Х-51 из состава 58-й ОА успешно поразил гаубицу и попутно поджег заряды. Источник #Ланцет

t.me

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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