The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm afraid this is no theater. It's a real attempt by Prigozhin at something resembling a coup, the exact goal of it remains murky. It appears South MD HQ is done resisting, as are many other Russian military and paramilitary units. I don't have the energy for a proper update, it will have to be tomorrow, but it's looking quite serious. In reality, if the National Guard and MoD aren't willing to put this down by force, Putin may well be the naked emperor before this is all over.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
I'm afraid this is no theater. It's a real attempt by Prigozhin at something resembling a coup, the exact goal of it remains murky. It appears South MD HQ is done resisting, as are many other Russian military and paramilitary units. I don't have the energy for a proper update, it will have to be tomorrow, but it's looking quite serious. In reality, if the National Guard and MoD aren't willing to put this down by force, Putin may well be the naked emperor before this is all over.
This is insane. I dont see a way put for Putin other than sacrificing Shoigu, that mena is not popular enough, and the armed forces and the populace apparently love old Piro.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Is it me, or does Prigozhin sound like he has mush (or rather kasha) in his mouth? Hard for me to understand him.
Not sure. He sounded like he usually does to me. Surovikin, on the other hand… I never heard him talk before today (well, yesterday my time), but that was, like you said, either too much vodka or not enough sleep; maybe something else. Or maybe he always talks like this.

Interesting developments, regardless.

Some reports indicate that some of the Wagner crowd returned to their bases (no evidence provided at this point, of course).
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
So basically Putin called it a coup and backstabbing. Promised to defend from treason, which is what Prigozhin is accused of. Hard response and all participating parties will be punished, etc. Those who organized and participated in the coup, betrayed their countrymen will be severely punished, and so on. We will be stronger than ever together. Everyone should go back to where they belong.


Interesting.
Yes, he was quite clear on all those points, and repeated them.

Prigozhin started out all fiery and calling for armed rebellion against Shoigu and Gerasimov, but once he got to Rostov claimed he just wanted to meet with them and demanded they come to him (or he would go to them). Did he start sobering up? No matter, I suppose. He's all in now. And so is Putin. This is looking quite ominous.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Perhaps this show down going to resolve on some compromise, or if this movement going to weaken Putin circles position. Some in Western media pundits talk about time for Ukrainian to exploit the confusion in Russia now, and launch all out offensive.

Just keep wondering how Russian war effort will be, if guys like Prigozhin (or more Nationalist factions) do manage to get better control on Russian fighting machines.
 

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Not sure. He sounded like he usually does to me. Surovikin, on the other hand… I never heard him talk before today (well, yesterday my time), but that was, like you said, either too much vodka or not enough sleep; maybe something else. Or maybe he always talks like this.

Interesting developments, regardless.

Some reports indicate that some of the Wagner crowd returned to their bases (no evidence provided at this point, of course).
There are credible reports that Voronezh is under Wagner control and a Wagner column has left there and headed toward Moscow, but not confirmed. Photos of civilians clowning around next to Wagner tanks in Rostov, taking pictures. Surreal. Wish I could stay awake, but zzzzz.

EDIT: Barely keeping my eyes open, but someone mentioned looking for a live cam earlier. Looks like it's time to switch to Moscow. Here's on:

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
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Musashi_kenshin

Well-Known Member
Awful news for the Russian government. I had thought it more likely than not that this mutiny would ultimately fail, but it's really too difficult to assess right now.

There is a lot of resentment towards the Putin government due to how badly the war in Ukraine has gone. That said, if people side with Wagner and they lose, they'll suffer severely from state forces.

Also I don't see how Prigozhin can credibly say he'll end the war - is he going to announce a unilateral withdrawal from Ukraine? Bar some attempts at a limited counterattack, Russian forces are already on the defensive and don't have much of an area to fall back to, bar Crimea, which is vulnerable due to reliance on the Kerch Bridge. If he goes the other way, how will he defeat Ukraine?

That said, Prigozhin could fail and Putin could still be fatally wounded because those around him realise it's time to use him as a sacrificial lamb to start ending the war. Again, it's impossible to know what their squeal-point is.

Either way this is disasterous for the Russian military, as even if it loses Wagner will probably have to be disbanded or otherwise neutered. Russian morale will be severely damaged. If somehow Prigozhin gets his way, Putin's authority will be hugely undermined.
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
Reminds me of the 1917 February Revolution all over again in terms of the immediate trigger points (Russian failure in foreign war). The social background and context is different but failure of a foreign adventure, corruption, autocracy etc share common trigger points.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Transcription of Putin's address.

"I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement and security services, fighters and commanders currently fighting on their positions, repelling the enemy attacks, doing it heroically. I spoke to the commanders in all directions last night. I appeal also to those who were deceptively pulled into the criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of an armed mutiny. Russia today is leading the most difficult war for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-nazis and their handlers. Against us, the whole military, economical and information machines of the West are turned. We fight for the lives and security of our people. For our sovereignty and independence. The right to remain Russia, a state with 1000 years of history. It’s a battle where the fate of our people is decided requires uniting of all our forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. Everything else hat weakens us must be shoved to the side. Our external enemies are using any arguments to undermine us from within. Thus, actions splitting our unity is a betrayal of our people, our combat brothers who fight now at the frontline. It’s a strike in the back of our country and our people. Exactly this strike was dealt in 1917 when the country was in WW1, but its victory was stolen. Intrigues, and arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war. Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers. But the beneficiaries were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts. We will not let this happen. We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly internal betrayal. Extraordinary ambitions and personal interests led to treason. Treason of their own country and people and of the case that fighters of Wagner were dying for alongside our soldiers. Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemivsk, towns and cities of the Donbas. They fought and were giving lives to Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organise the mutiny, pushing the country into anarchy and brother-killing, to a defeat, in the end, and capitulation. Repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a strike against our nation, our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal. Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will take an inevitable punishment. They will answer to the law and our people. The Armed Forces and other departments were properly instructed. Extra anti-terrorist measures are now being implemented in Moscow, Moscow region, and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult. The operation of civilian and military control departments is practically blocked. As a President of Russia and the Supreme Commander, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens. Those who prepared the military mutiny, who raise weapons against combat brothers, have betrayed Russia, and will pay for this. And those who are being pulled into the crime, I’m asking to not make this crucial, tragic, unrepeatable mistake. Do the one right choice - stop participating in criminal actions. I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger."
Putin has clearly stated that Prigozhin has committed treason and as such will be hunted down and punished.

Full transcription of Kadyrov's release:

"Friends, the night turned out to be difficult and the flights did not give time to voice here my position on this vile betrayal! Everything that is happening is a KNIFE IN THE BACK and a real military coup! I have repeatedly warned that war is not the time to voice personal grievances and resolve disputes in our rears. The rears must always be calm and reliable. Imagine how the guys in the trenches feel now, who are facing the enemy, and behind their backs are treacherous villains. We are talking about stability, about the cohesion of the state, about the security of citizens. History shows that such actions can lead to bloody consequences. Have we not got enough losses in the SMO? Do we need to create more problems inside the country? We have a Supreme Commander-in-Chief, elected by the people, who knows the whole situation to the smallest detail better than any strategist, and even more so a businessman, calls the commanders "on the ground" personally and fully controls the course of the SMO. And the decisions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief are taken in a balanced and scrupulous manner. Each of us sees only one part of the map, and he sees everything at once! And Vladimir Vladimirovich quite rightly noted in his address to the nation - this is a military rebellion! There is no excuse for such actions! I fully support every word of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin! I appeal to the fighters - patriots of our Motherland. Do not fall for provocations. Whatever goals you are given, no matter what promises you are told - the security of the state and the cohesion of Russian society at such a moment is above all else! See how our enemies in the West are taking advantage of this situation. How many throw-ins, how many lies, how many false appeals that frighten our citizens, create the danger of a destabilising situation. And these are the expected consequences of Prigozhin's treacherous march. What is happening is not an ultimatum to the Ministry of Defense. This is a challenge to the state, and against this challenge it is necessary to rally around the national leader: the military, security forces, governors, and the civilian population. The fighters of the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Guard in the Chechen Republic have already left for the zones of conflict. We will do everything to preserve the unity of Russia and protect its statehood! The rebellion must be crushed, and if this requires harsh measures, then we are ready!"

Kadyrov, has firmly supported Putin, and the status quo. He and Prigozhin have had a falling out in recent times, so if the two meet up on the road to Moscow, it will be a bloodbath.

Prigozhin audio message 10:19AM BST:

"no one will surrender to the demands of the President": "Regarding the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken. We’re patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we are fighting, all fighters of PMC Wagner. And no one is going to surrender to the demands of the President, FSB, or anyone else. Because we don’t want the country to live further in corruption lies, and bureaucracy. When we fought in Africa, we were told that we needed Africa, and then they dumped it, because they stole all the money that was meant to come for help. When we were told we are fighting with Ukraine, we went and fought. But it turned out that the ammo, weapons, all money put towards this were also being stolen, while officials are sitting and saving them for themselves for an incident that happened today, when someone is going towards Moscow." Now they are not saving anything, they are striking us with planes and helicopters at the columns with civilians. And they hit civilians because they’re missing. And they hit anywhere they can. Thus, we are the patriots, but those resisting us today are those who gathered around scumbags."

Prigozhin is unrepentant and will continue with what he claims is his mission to save Holy Mother Russia. So he's made hs bed and now has to lie in it.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
I don't see how Putin or Prigozhin can back down from this. I wonder how many troops there are defending Moscow or indeed how many troops would be willing to defend Moscow.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Transcription of Putin's address.

"I appeal to the citizens of Russia, to the personnel of the Armed Forces, law enforcement and security services, fighters and commanders currently fighting on their positions, repelling the enemy attacks, doing it heroically. I spoke to the commanders in all directions last night. I appeal also to those who were deceptively pulled into the criminal adventure, pushed towards a serious crime of an armed mutiny. Russia today is leading the most difficult war for its future, repelling the aggression of neo-nazis and their handlers. Against us, the whole military, economical and information machines of the West are turned. We fight for the lives and security of our people. For our sovereignty and independence. The right to remain Russia, a state with 1000 years of history. It’s a battle where the fate of our people is decided requires uniting of all our forces, unity, consolidation and responsibility. Everything else hat weakens us must be shoved to the side. Our external enemies are using any arguments to undermine us from within. Thus, actions splitting our unity is a betrayal of our people, our combat brothers who fight now at the frontline. It’s a strike in the back of our country and our people. Exactly this strike was dealt in 1917 when the country was in WW1, but its victory was stolen. Intrigues, and arguments behind the army’s back turned out to be the greatest catastrophe, destruction of the army and the state, loss of huge territories, resulting in a tragedy and a civil war. Russians were killing Russians, brothers killing brothers. But the beneficiaries were various political chevaliers of fortune and foreign powers who divided the country, and tore it into parts. We will not let this happen. We will protect our people and state from any threats, including internal betrayal. What we’re facing is exactly internal betrayal. Extraordinary ambitions and personal interests led to treason. Treason of their own country and people and of the case that fighters of Wagner were dying for alongside our soldiers. Heroes who liberated Soledar and Artemivsk, towns and cities of the Donbas. They fought and were giving lives to Novorossiya and the unity of the Russian world. Their name and glory were also betrayed by those who are trying to organise the mutiny, pushing the country into anarchy and brother-killing, to a defeat, in the end, and capitulation. Repeat: any internal mutiny is a deadly threat to our state, to us as a nation. It’s a strike against our nation, our people. And our actions to defend the fatherland from such a threat will be brutal. Anyone who consciously went on the path of betrayal, who prepared the armed mutiny, went on the path of blackmail and terrorist actions, will take an inevitable punishment. They will answer to the law and our people. The Armed Forces and other departments were properly instructed. Extra anti-terrorist measures are now being implemented in Moscow, Moscow region, and a number of other regions. Decisive actions will be taken to stabilise the situation in Rostov-on-Don. It remains difficult. The operation of civilian and military control departments is practically blocked. As a President of Russia and the Supreme Commander, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, protect the Constitution, lives and safety, liberty of the citizens. Those who prepared the military mutiny, who raise weapons against combat brothers, have betrayed Russia, and will pay for this. And those who are being pulled into the crime, I’m asking to not make this crucial, tragic, unrepeatable mistake. Do the one right choice - stop participating in criminal actions. I believe that we will defend and preserve what’s sacred for us. And together with the motherland, we will overcome all challenges, and become even stronger."
Putin has clearly stated that Prigozhin has committed treason and as such will be hunted down and punished.

Full transcription of Kadyrov's release:

"Friends, the night turned out to be difficult and the flights did not give time to voice here my position on this vile betrayal! Everything that is happening is a KNIFE IN THE BACK and a real military coup! I have repeatedly warned that war is not the time to voice personal grievances and resolve disputes in our rears. The rears must always be calm and reliable. Imagine how the guys in the trenches feel now, who are facing the enemy, and behind their backs are treacherous villains. We are talking about stability, about the cohesion of the state, about the security of citizens. History shows that such actions can lead to bloody consequences. Have we not got enough losses in the SMO? Do we need to create more problems inside the country? We have a Supreme Commander-in-Chief, elected by the people, who knows the whole situation to the smallest detail better than any strategist, and even more so a businessman, calls the commanders "on the ground" personally and fully controls the course of the SMO. And the decisions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief are taken in a balanced and scrupulous manner. Each of us sees only one part of the map, and he sees everything at once! And Vladimir Vladimirovich quite rightly noted in his address to the nation - this is a military rebellion! There is no excuse for such actions! I fully support every word of Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin! I appeal to the fighters - patriots of our Motherland. Do not fall for provocations. Whatever goals you are given, no matter what promises you are told - the security of the state and the cohesion of Russian society at such a moment is above all else! See how our enemies in the West are taking advantage of this situation. How many throw-ins, how many lies, how many false appeals that frighten our citizens, create the danger of a destabilising situation. And these are the expected consequences of Prigozhin's treacherous march. What is happening is not an ultimatum to the Ministry of Defense. This is a challenge to the state, and against this challenge it is necessary to rally around the national leader: the military, security forces, governors, and the civilian population. The fighters of the Ministry of Defense and the Russian Guard in the Chechen Republic have already left for the zones of conflict. We will do everything to preserve the unity of Russia and protect its statehood! The rebellion must be crushed, and if this requires harsh measures, then we are ready!"

Kadyrov, has firmly supported Putin, and the status quo. He and Prigozhin have had a falling out in recent times, so if the two meet up on the road to Moscow, it will be a bloodbath.

Prigozhin audio message 10:19AM BST:

"no one will surrender to the demands of the President": "Regarding the betrayal of the Motherland, the President is deeply mistaken. We’re patriots of our Motherland. We fought and we are fighting, all fighters of PMC Wagner. And no one is going to surrender to the demands of the President, FSB, or anyone else. Because we don’t want the country to live further in corruption lies, and bureaucracy. When we fought in Africa, we were told that we needed Africa, and then they dumped it, because they stole all the money that was meant to come for help. When we were told we are fighting with Ukraine, we went and fought. But it turned out that the ammo, weapons, all money put towards this were also being stolen, while officials are sitting and saving them for themselves for an incident that happened today, when someone is going towards Moscow." Now they are not saving anything, they are striking us with planes and helicopters at the columns with civilians. And they hit civilians because they’re missing. And they hit anywhere they can. Thus, we are the patriots, but those resisting us today are those who gathered around scumbags."

Prigozhin is unrepentant and will continue with what he claims is his mission to save Holy Mother Russia. So he's made hs bed and now has to lie in it.
Regardless of what Prigozhin’s future is, what happens to all his loyal followers? These combat veterans going underground could well be Putin and company’s worst terrorist nightmare. Certainly won’t help the war effort against Ukraine.
 

phreeky

Active Member
Are there any losers in this other than Russia? Will most other nations be welcoming this, or is there a greater concern for the stability of the Russian government long-term? I really don't know where I stand, as there is always that risk that somebody crazier gets into power.

Either way, in the short term, it appears that Ukraine is going to enjoy Russia having a much greater issue on its hand. Interestingly I see the statements by Prigozhin indicating that the invasion was unjustified.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
I don't see how Putin or Prigozhin can back down from this. I wonder how many troops there are defending Moscow or indeed how many troops would be willing to defend Moscow.
There's nothing to suggest that the Russian Army soldiers would defect to Wagner. They know of Wagner's disciplinary methods and harshness, and whilst their lot in the Russian army isn't very good, it's still better than Wagner.
Regardless of what Prigozhin’s future is, what happens to all his loyal followers? These combat veterans going underground could well be Putin and company’s worst terrorist nightmare. Certainly won’t help the war effort against Ukraine.
Wagner not fighting against Ukraine is definitely to Ukraines advantage. Wagner combat veterans going underground will keep the FSB very busy and is a distraction that Putin doesn't need.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm afraid this is no theater. It's a real attempt by Prigozhin at something resembling a coup, the exact goal of it remains murky. It appears South MD HQ is done resisting, as are many other Russian military and paramilitary units. I don't have the energy for a proper update, it will have to be tomorrow, but it's looking quite serious. In reality, if the National Guard and MoD aren't willing to put this down by force, Putin may well be the naked emperor before this is all over.
1. We need to remember the fundamentals on a mercenary group, like the Wagner PMC.

2. I have no evidence but I believe, in the next 14 to 28 days, 30% of Wagner PMC will want to look for an exit from the Prigozhin train to straight to hell.

3. Putin has been forced to speak to the Russians on TV. What Putin really fears is betrayal in his inner circle & not the side show called Prigozhin. Given that Putin’s speech is not favourable to Yevgeny Prigozhin, I wish him good luck surviving in the next 3 months. As the screws are tightened by MVD, more fighting should occur — to cheers in Ukraine.

4. Uncertain what is really happening on the ground with the coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner in Russia. But there are things we know:

(a) Months ago, Prigozhin fell out of favour in Moscow & his patron, Arkady Rotenberg. There is a slim chance that coups like this can turn into civil wars. Or not. The information quality is low. But there is an airwaves battle for unit and soldier loyalty that Putin can easily win.​
(b) In April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months." If Wagner have been able to move hundreds of kilometres with heavy equipment, over a main highway towards Moscow, should definitely be concerning for the Russian government.​
(c) Within a week or two, this Wagner coup will fail. This is interesting as a dog bites owner moment. With Prigozhin failing to understand that he is the dog & the owner, Rotenberg is keen to shoot a rabid dog in the St. Petersburg gang — to pacify Putin (as mafia boss).​

5. Putin is not concerned about the dog, Prigozhin — in the greater scheme of power. He is really concerned about who is really feeding this dog, as it is no longer under the control of the owner, Arkady Rotenberg.
 
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hauritz

Well-Known Member
There are credible reports that Voronezh is under Wagner control and a Wagner column has left there and headed toward Moscow, but not confirmed. Photos of civilians clowning around next to Wagner tanks in Rostov, taking pictures. Surreal. Wish I could stay awake, but zzzzz.

EDIT: Barely keeping my eyes open, but someone mentioned looking for a live cam earlier. Looks like it's time to switch to Moscow. Here's on:

That is halfway to Moscow. It doesn't sound like anyone is resisting them. Momentum appear to be on Prigozhin’s side. I have a feeling that Russians are probably weary of war and sanctions by now. Has 1991 vibes about it.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
There's nothing to suggest that the Russian Army soldiers would defect to Wagner. They know of Wagner's disciplinary methods and harshness, and whilst their lot in the Russian army isn't very good, it's still better than Wagner.
I have no love for Wagner. I won't be shedding any tears if their coup attempt fails. Not feeling a lot of love for the Russian army either. Plenty of neo-nazis fighting for the Ukraine as well.
 
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