The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

seaspear

Well-Known Member
We are off the thread but with stealth and low observability ,there are many different claims on the detection by radar this article provides some information about the radar cross section and detection range, but all radars are not of same capability ,the f-35 is claimed to have a cross section of 0.0015 per square metre Stealth.pdf (williamdoneil.com)
What is the radar cross section of the F-35? – ProfoundAdvice (profoundadvices.com)
Also China has made claims on having quantum radars that are in dispute
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I recently had a look at Ukraine weapons tracker. They are tracking weapons received, and destroyed. Of interest to me, among other things, are a Russian Russian 1L119 Nebo-SVU multi-functional radar as well as a Ukrainian Crab howitzer. This is the first report I have seen of one of those destroyed.
Plenty of Krab howitzers have been destroyed. Lostarmour lists 11 destroyed Krabs with footage to confirm, making this a low-end estimate.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
We are off the thread but with stealth and low observability ,there are many different claims on the detection by radar this article provides some information about the radar cross section and detection range, but all radars are not of same capability ,the f-35 is claimed to have a cross section of 0.0015 per square metre Stealth.pdf (williamdoneil.com)
What is the radar cross section of the F-35? – ProfoundAdvice (profoundadvices.com)
Also China has made claims on having quantum radars that are in dispute

Let's keep this on topic. The RCS of F-35s, and capabilities of quantum radars are not relevant to this discuss. The closest to a LO aircraft in play is the Su-57 and it's being used very sparingly, if at all.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Is anyone else scratching their heads at the reticence to send F16s to the Ukraine? If reports are true that the Ukraine will exhaust their S300 & BUK missile supplies by early May this presents a significant issue in pushing any counter offensive forward. Any massing of troops and equipment (including deep behind the lines) would be vulnerable with out adequate air cover or missile stocks. If that was to happen the Ukraine would have next to now no air force cover as such and significantly reduce Surface to Air capability.

If F16s could be supplied in reasonable numbers ...say 20-40 it would go a long way to keeping Russian airforce on the other side of the border. I dont really think the argument that it takes time to train the pilots flies anymore. The Ukrainians have proven adept at taking on and mastering Western Defence technology. I am concerned its now looking to be too little too late.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Is anyone else scratching their heads at the reticence to send F16s to the Ukraine? If reports are true that the Ukraine will exhaust their S300 & BUK missile supplies by early May this presents a significant issue in pushing any counter offensive forward. Any massing of troops and equipment (including deep behind the lines) would be vulnerable with out adequate air cover or missile stocks. If that was to happen the Ukraine would have next to now no air force cover as such and significantly reduce Surface to Air capability.

If F16s could be supplied in reasonable numbers ...say 20-40 it would go a long way to keeping Russian airforce on the other side of the border. I dont really think the argument that it takes time to train the pilots flies anymore. The Ukrainians have proven adept at taking on and mastering Western Defence technology. I am concerned its now looking to be too little too late.
F16 would be vulnerable to RU S-300 systems. UKR needs AA missiles, and I would hope that someone has been working on the issue of producing knock-off munitions in the last year. Should be possible ?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is anyone else scratching their heads at the reticence to send F16s to the Ukraine? If reports are true that the Ukraine will exhaust their S300 & BUK missile supplies by early May this presents a significant issue in pushing any counter offensive forward. Any massing of troops and equipment (including deep behind the lines) would be vulnerable with out adequate air cover or missile stocks. If that was to happen the Ukraine would have next to now no air force cover as such and significantly reduce Surface to Air capability.

If F16s could be supplied in reasonable numbers ...say 20-40 it would go a long way to keeping Russian airforce on the other side of the border. I dont really think the argument that it takes time to train the pilots flies anymore. The Ukrainians have proven adept at taking on and mastering Western Defence technology. I am concerned its now looking to be too little too late.
F-16s are vulnerable, expensive, and there's the issue of pilots. Probably a late model F-16 with AESA would be a match for an Su-35S. But are those readily available in quantities? Or are we talking about F-16A/Bs out of storage? And as is pointed out above would be vulnerable to Russian GBAD. On the flip side supplying Ukraine with IRIS-T, Patriots, etc. solves the exhaustion of missile stocks and doesn't create the same problem. Of course there's the issue of whether they're concentrated to protect cities from strikes against the power grid, or on the front line covering troops. And Ukraine has lost SAMs by deploying them within hitting range of Russian Iskanders and Tornado-S.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Yes just about any fighter at risk of GBAD but no more than Mig 29. And GBAD needs to be within range and th3 Ukrainians have proven adept at avoid ping or Destroying GBADs within the range. No Patriot system in numbers are going to be supplied in time for any counter offensive,. in my view F16s should have been supplied over the past 6 months. At least they can deny unfettered access to Ukrainians sky and out up a fight against some of the other generation SUs should they come into contact. Russian Air Commanders would probably be reluctant to fly over the Ukraine knowing a flight of F16s is in the region armed with AMRAAM.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
F16 would be vulnerable to RU S-300 systems. UKR needs AA missiles, and I would hope that someone has been working on the issue of producing knock-off munitions in the last year. Should be possible ?
There's been some adaption to allow western missiles to be fired from some of Ukraine's ex-Soviet launchers, but IIRC so far they're getting old stocks. Vastly better than launchers with no missiles to fire, but not necessarily any better than (or even as effective as) the missiles that have been used up, let alone new western SAM systems.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
There's been some adaption to allow western missiles to be fired from some of Ukraine's ex-Soviet launchers, but IIRC so far they're getting old stocks. Vastly better than launchers with no missiles to fire, but not necessarily any better than (or even as effective as) the missiles that have been used up, let alone new western SAM systems.
The Franken Sam project is very interesting. IIRC, they are going to launch sparrows from Buks. I wonder what the range and effectiveness will be.

Russian tank POV of being hit by an FPV drone. The tank just shrugs it off. Ukraine is developing bigger FPVs with HEAT levels of explosive and this drone was not one of them. Also it will be interesting to see how cope cages deal with FPVs. Cope nets have been very successfu on both sides even stopping advanced loitering munitions like the Lancet. Waiting for a video of a FPV hitting a cope cage.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/12pau5y
In the Zaporizhiye area, around 30miles from the front, Lancets hit a UKR boat.-

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/12ppfw1
Considering how slow they are,potential UKR river assault will be subject to some vulnerablities. ATGMS, Lancets, will all be ablle to target riverine boats with ease. I wonder how they would fare at night. I have yet to see Lancet attacks at night and dont think they are capable of night attacks.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Plenty of Krab howitzers have been destroyed. Lostarmour lists 11 destroyed Krabs with footage to confirm, making this a low-end estimate.

Thanks for reminding me of that site. I found the English side. They currently list 13 Krabs as lost.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
There have been reports of Prigozhin saying Russia should saying Russia should stop where they are at and declare it's goals as achieved. The Instutite for the Study of War clarifies what he really means, which is really almost the opposite.

Quote from ISW: Prigozhin established a strawman argument he attributed to Russia’s “internal enemies” who seek to rationalize Russia ending the war in Ukraine now.[2] The point of his essay was to attack this strawman, not to advance it. Prigozhin actually called on Russia to commit to a decisive fight that will either defeat Ukraine or result in a temporary Russian defeat that will catalyze Russia’s nationalist rebirth and set conditions for future victory.[3] A full reading of Prigozhin's essay, titled, “Only an Honest Fight: No Negotiations,” does not lend itself to any reasonable interpretation that Prigozhin advocated for an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.



I have used Google translate on Russian sites at time and come away confused with partial understanding. Now I have to question sites that should have good translators. :mad:
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The Franken Sam project is very interesting. IIRC, they are going to launch sparrows from Buks. I wonder what the range and effectiveness will be.

Russian tank POV of being hit by an FPV drone. The tank just shrugs it off. Ukraine is developing bigger FPVs with HEAT levels of explosive and this drone was not one of them. Also it will be interesting to see how cope cages deal with FPVs. Cope nets have been very successfu on both sides even stopping advanced loitering munitions like the Lancet. Waiting for a video of a FPV hitting a cope cage.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/12pau5y
In the Zaporizhiye area, around 30miles from the front, Lancets hit a UKR boat.-

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/12ppfw1
Considering how slow they are,potential UKR river assault will be subject to some vulnerablities. ATGMS, Lancets, will all be ablle to target riverine boats with ease. I wonder how they would fare at night. I have yet to see Lancet attacks at night and dont think they are capable of night attacks.
It appears I need the reddit app to open these links, which I do not have and have no interest of getting one. A bit of looking and I found these, that I am assuming are the same thing on Telegram.

The tank and the drone:


The boat:

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
It appears I need the reddit app to open these links, which I do not have and have no interest of getting one. A bit of looking and I found these, that I am assuming are the same thing on Telegram.

The tank and the drone:


The boat:

all the Russian footage on reddit, is from the telegram groups, so you wont need it anyway
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ I see. Thanks. Don’t think I had ever seen links like that, haha. Usually, they open in a separate window and ask if I want to open them in the app or proceed with the browser; here they “demanded” I get the app.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Feb. 27th-Mar. 3rd

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Reportedly Ukraine lost an Su-24 in Kherson region. Note this is based on the reports of the pilot's death, rather then confirmation of a downing.


The West.

Russian Shahed strikes in Khmel'nitskiy.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian missile hit a residential building in Zaporozhye, killing 4 and wounding 11.


Russian striking Malinovka, again.


Oskol Front.

Russian sniper taking out a Ukrainian soldier, the woods near Kremennaya.


Ukrainian pickup truck with allegedly a mortar team getting hit, woods near Kremennaya.


Russian VDV using an RPG-16 near Kremennaya.


Russian T-90M with Nakidka in the woods near Kremennaya.


LDNR Front.

A destroyed M777 somewhere near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian BTR-82A in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


First reporting out of Stupki, a northern neighborhood of Artemovsk/Bakhmut that fell under Russian control. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian MOWAG Eagle II in Chasov Yar, part of a continuing trend of fresh forces and equipment passing through there.


A column of Russian IFVs near Avdeevka getting shot up by a pair of Ukrainian MBTs.


Russian airstrikes hitting Avdeevka. Russia has stepped up airstrikes in this area no doubt in the hopes of wearing down Ukrainian forces.


Sparta btln quadcopter munition drops Peski-Vodyanoe area.


Footage of Russian marines entering the summer cottages neighborhood of Ugledar. Note this was the only successful push on the town. This foothold remains in tact at least to the best of my info. Note two different videos of what appears to be the same forces and the same area.


A Russian 2S4 240mm mortar getting destroyed near Ugledar by counter-battery fires.


Russian BMP-1s with tank riders hitting land mines near Ugledar. Why Russia isn't using any mineclearing vehicles or equipment remains unclear.


A look at landmine density near Ugledar.


A knocked out Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP near Ugledar.


Russian Kub loitering munition strikes a Ukrainian supply truck allegedly carrying munitions. Ugledar area.


Russian loitering munition taking out a Ukrainian MT-LB with ZU-23-2 near Ugledar.


A Ukrainian T-72B3 knocked out getting finished off by a quadcopter munition drop near Ugledar.


Shelling of Donetsk continues.


The Stakhanov railcar building plant, LNR area, was hit by a Ukrainian strike, allegedly HIMARS.


Russia.

An explosion at Eysk airfield, reasons unknown at this time. With hindsight I don't know that we ever got an explanation for this.


Traces of a fire in the grass around the Eysk airfield. No word on the damage caused.


Ukrainian UJ-22 UAV crashed in Moscow region, Russia, near a Gazprom facility.


Russian fuel storage in Tuapse, Krasnodar region, was attacked by Ukrainian UAVs.


A Ukrainian Tu-141 crashed in Adygeya, Russia. Conversion of Tu-143s and 141s into cruise missiles is on-going. Russian government sources claim two such UAVs went down and were brought down by EW units.


Russia claims 15 Ukrainian UAVs downed in Crimea by EW and anti-air. Only one is evident in photos and appears intact.


A Russian troop train has been spotted carrying BRDM-2s, BTR-80s, BTR-50s, ZiL-131s, and a rare Kamaz-based mechanized roadlayer.


Misc.


Rare fresh footage of Russian Orion-S Kornet-D strike, against allegedly a Ukrainian command post. Moreover the Orion-S variant we see here is new, with the OLS located in the center of the fuselage instead of the nose.


A Ukrainian howitzer getting hit by a Russian loitering munition. Location and vehicle type unclear.


Footage of 3 Krab howitzers getting taken out.


Ukraine's 79th Para-Assault Bde claims 5 MBTs and 3 IFVs destroyed by Javelin fires. Some are clearly credible kills, some are more questionable. I suspect this is Ugledar area.


Ukrainian infantry enters a house and immediately gets hit allegedly by Russian 120mm Nona-S. Secondary detonations can be seen indicating ammo cooking off.


Ukrainian Vampir MLRS taking counter-battery fire but surviving.


More Ukrainian pickup truck MLRS, likely firing S-8 rockets. The utility of this is questionable but the practice remains popular.


Russian Zemledelie remote mine-layer in action. This is effectively an MLRS with packet-reloading but uniquely specialized to minelaying. It's a potentially good system but should either be expanded into a Grad replacement or not developed at all, and it's capabilities folded into whatever replaced the Grad.


Russian Msta-S and 2S5 fires, likely near Kremennaya based on the terrain.


Two destroyed Mastiff MRAPs, location unclear. Quite a few of the type were destroyed in abortive counter-attacks near Peski a while back, this could be fresh footage of the same destroyed vehicles.


Ukrainian forces unloading landmines from a dump truck.


Ukrainian Strela-10 in desert colors, possibly ex-Jordanian.


More footage of Ukraine's MT-LB/MT-12 hybrid.


Ukrainian forces operating an Iranian M48 120mm mortar, likely captured from Houthi weapon shipments.


Ukrainian forces show off a captured and repaired T-80BVM.


A very well designed false M777 position.


A poorly-constructed Russian SP howitzer decoy.


Russian forces up-armoring T-72s in the field.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Mar. 3rd-4th

The North.

Russia struck Chernigov area with UPAB-1500B guided bombs as part of recent increases in airstrikes. This munition can glide for up to 50kms when dropped from a 15km altitude, but are expensive and scarce.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Ukrainian pickup truck getting hit by Russian tank fires, Zaporozhye area.


The the death toll in the residential building hit by Russia in Zaporozhye has risen to 10. Rescue work is still in progress at the time of this post.


Oskol Front.

Russian infantry assaulting a Ukrainian positions near Kremennaya. We see one service member get hit but receive a tourniquet and remain in action. They captured a couple of Ukrainian infantry in the end. We know Russia has gained ground across a broad section of the front near Kremennaya, but not very far, gaining 1-2kms.


A Ukrainian service member hit by a grenade from a quadcopter, in Makeevka, Lugansk region (not to be confused with the Donetsk Makeevka).


Russian UAV operations on the Oskol front. Unlike pretty loitering munition videos, these are often far less definitive, but we can be confident that far more UAV-directed arty and mortar fires take place then loitering munition strikes.


Russian BMPT operations on the Oskol front.


Russian BARS-13 has gotten hit by SMART munitions near Kremennaya.


Ukraine has begun an evacuation of civilians from Kupyansk due to the front line getting closer to the town.


LDNR Front.

A destroyed T-72B with K-5 ERA (T-72B mod'89?) near Artemovsk/Bakhmut, allegedly Ukrainian.


Footage of Wagner forces assaulting in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian forces retreating from Berkhovka, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Georgian fighters in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian 61st Mech Bde infantry retreating from Artemovsk/Bakhmut, allegedly meant for rotation.


Ukrainian forces have blown a number of bridges around Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A Russian IFV column getting hit near Avdeevka.


Ukrainian M777 getting hit near Avdeevka. Note the operator of the munition makes a conscious decision to target the gun crew rather then the system itself.


DNR 9th Bde ATGM team engages Ukrainian positions near Donetsk. In this conflict ATGMs have increasingly been used against all kinds of targets.


Ukrainian 2S1 getting hit near Donetsk.


Russian artillery fires in Mar'inka, with corrections.


Aerial footage of the destruction in Mar'inka.


Russian Lancet-3M striking a Ukrainian M109 near Ugledar.


Russian loitering munition striking a D-30 near Ugledar, though it could be a decoy.


Russian strike hits a mine shaft structure north-east of Ugledar.


Russian sniper fires hitting someone near Ugledar.


Russian TOS-1 fires near Ugledar.


Ukrainian MBT gets hit by a lucky MLRS round, during the initial fires intended to bracket the target.


A Russian Su-34 was downed near Yenakievo, DNR area, possibly by friendly fire.


Russian Ka-52 over Donetsk.


Russia.

Ukrainian infiltrators crossed into Bryansk region, allegedly killing locals, setting up land mines, and IEDs. Warning footage of corpses.


A Ukrainian Tu-141 was downed near Gvardeyskoe, Crimea.


Russian trenches on the beaches of Evpatoriya.


Misc.


Two Russian Giatsint-B howitzers getting destroyed allegedly by Excalibur strikes. This is the Dnepr shore but unclear if Kherson or Zaporozhye regions.


Russian Zemledelie minelayer and Tor-M2 getting hit by Ukrainian quadcopter munition drops.


Ukrainian Stormer SAM downs something, possibly a UAV based on the small size..


Russian quadcopter munition drop on a Ukrainian fighting position.


Russian Orion-S returning to base after operations near Southern Donetsk. Basing location is unclear.


Russian Pantsyr-S in Ukraine.


Ukrainian forces operating the Bergenpanzer-2. Up to this point they've received 17 vehicles of the type.


Ukrainian buggy with an SPG on top.


Ukrainian pickup trucks, both MLRS and regular HMG.


Ukrainian troop column featuring a mix of civilian, military, and improvised armored vehicles.


Ukrainian Spartan APC up-gunned with an M2 .50 cal.


NATO/EU.

Norwegian Leo-2A4s getting ready to transfer to Ukraine.


There are reports that Germany is negotiating to purchase a number of Swiss Leo-2A4s to be used to supply to third countries to replace equipment going to Ukraine.


Ukrainian businessman Sergey Pritula claims he has purchased 101 FV103 family of vehicles for Ukraine, including the FV104, FV105, FV106, and FV434.


The next packet of US aid to Ukraine is to include M60 AVLB armored bridgelayers.


Reportedly Ukraine will receive 28 Challenger 2s and 33 AS-90s from the UK.


Strykers meant for Ukraine arriving in Europe.


Ukrainian service members training on Bradleys in Europe.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
F16 would be vulnerable to RU S-300 systems. UKR needs AA missiles, and I would hope that someone has been working on the issue of producing knock-off munitions in the last year. Should be possible ?
So what? That's no reason to refuse to provide the F-16 to Ukraine. F-16s have a far better chance of evading the S300 SAM than the current Ukrainian Mig-29s and Su-27s. The Ukrainians need to be able to dispute the control of the air over the battlefield and defend its own airspace. An IADS comprising both combat aircraft and GBAD is the only reasonable and practical option. If Ukraine cannot compete in the air it will lose the war.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
That's no reason to refuse to provide the F-16 to Ukraine. F-16s have a far better chance of evading the S300 SAM than the current Ukrainian Mig-29s and Su-27s.
Wouldnt this depend on which version of the F-16s they get? I am a complete layman, but without AWACS and ground based networks, onyl block 40 onwards f-16 radars outrange Russian Mig-29Ms and Su-27s right?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Wouldn't this depend on which version of the F-16s they get? I am a complete layman, but without AWACS and ground based networks, only block 40 onwards f-16 radars outrange Russian Mig-29Ms and Su-27s right?
AWACs would help, and NATO AWACs possibly could provide such cover from NATO airspace. There are pre Block 40 F-16s operated by NATO air arms that have been upgraded over their lifetime. Don't underestimate the F-16 because it's quite a nifty bird. Another point is the training of Ukrainian aircrew and C2 elements to correspond with NATO standards. This takes Ukraine away from the highly centrally command heavy Soviet / Russian GCI doctrine which the Russians still use. Under Russian doctrine the GCI - ground or AWCS controller has far hands on control than any NATO equivalent. They don't allow aircrew any real freedom of movement with the combat aircraft being tied to the controller with a tight electronic lease.

I saw a German documentary a while back that was about former DDR MIG-29s in service with the Luftwaffe after the reunification of Germany. One thing that came through was that the MIG-29 never had its full capabilities exploited whilst under DDR / Soviet control. The Luftwaffe used their MIG-29s for DACT and that had other NATO air arms queuing up for DACT training with them. They handed many a NATO pilot and unit their arses on a plate. The only real problem found with the MIG-29 was its short legs (small range and endurance). Flown by NATO aircrews the MIG-29 was quite a handful for any opposition. Will see if I can find the documentary again.
 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
AWACs would help, and NATO AWACs possibly could provide such cover from NATO airspace. There are pre Block 40 F-16s operated by NATO air arms that have been upgraded over their lifetime. Don't underestimate the F-16 because it's quite a nifty bird. Another point is the training of Ukrainian aircrew and C2 elements to correspond with NATO standards. This takes Ukraine away from the highly centrally command heavy Soviet / Russian GCI doctrine which the Russians still use. Under Russian doctrine the GCI - ground or AWCS controller has far hands on control than any NATO equivalent. They don't allow aircrew any real freedom of movement with the combat aircraft being tied to the controller with a tight electronic lease.

I saw a German documentary a while back that was about former DDR MIG-29s in service with the Luftwaffe after the reunification of Germany. One thing that came through was that the MIG-29 never had its full capabilities exploited whilst under DDR / Soviet control. The Luftwaffe used their MIG-29s for DACT and that had other NATO air arms queuing up for DACT training with them. They handed many a NATO pilot and unit their arses on a plate. The only real problem found with the MIG-29 was its short legs (small range and endurance). Flown by NATO aircrews the MIG-29 was quite a handful for any opposition. Will see if I can find the documentary again.
Thank you for the answer, follow up question.

if we keep in mind that in this hypothetical scenario, the F-16s find a gap in Russian GBAD and evades the Mig-31s with R-37s and go head to head with Russian fightert does it come down to who fires the AIM-120 vs who fires the R-77 first? Also does the f-16 onboard radar available on upgraded pre Block 40 planes outrange the VKS fighter's onboard radars?
 
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