The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vivendi]

Furthermore, the recent developments in Russia can be viewed in different ways as well. For example, installations of Pantsir’s on the roofs of MoD and other buildings (source somewhere above, provided by another member) may suggest that, as most of the media indicate, the Russians are “fearful” of a Ukraine drone attack on Moscow. Another interpretation could be that they are actually preparing for an escalation and things to come. The latter holds logic behind it, as opposed to the former, in my opinion. Gerasimov becoming in charge of the war in Ukraine may suggest the same as he commands the Russian Armed Forces in their entirety and the chain of command beyond is very short and consists of two links. He is also, I believe, one of the three people with access to the “cheget”.

Could it also be that Putin is starting to become worried about a coup? Erdogan saw elements of his air force turn against him...

As for Gerasimov, perhaps that's just Putin doing is usual reordering of people when his "plans" don't work out as he expected?

Frankly, the plan of attacking Crimea to bring Russia to the negotiating table is idiotic and will bring about a pretty strong response, again, in my humble opinion. Anyone and everyone may think of Crimea what they like, but that boat had sailed back in 2014 and it ain’t coming back. There aren’t many Russians that think this should be contested, even remotely so (@Feanor may chime in with better insight on this perhaps?) Germany has things to worry about with the decisions they are making.

Perhaps but I am not so sure. Ukraine already launched attacks against Crimea. Instead of Russians rushing to Crimea "defend" it I seem to remember long lines of cars leaving Crimea, heading for Russia...

Also, after the actions taken by Russia since February 24 2022, I would support the view that if Ukraine prefers, they should be given the opportunity to take back all they lost in 2014.

 

[seaspear]

The latest report from the Institute for Study of War strongly suggests that a spring offensive from Russia in the Luhansk and Donbas area is likely and there have not so far been seen of such preparations in Belarus
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 23, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Poland requests German permission to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine

German defence minister says he expects quick response, as application increases pressure on chancellor Olaf Scholz

www.theguardian.com

So a formal request has finally been made. This after reports that Germany had said it would approve requests. Hopefully now the process can move swifty rather than get bogged down in bureaucracy.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Reports indicate that the US may also be reconsidering their position on Abrams, so there wouldn’t be much else Germany can point to in saying no and speed up the process.

U.S. poised to approve sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine

The United States, in a reversal, is poised to start a process that would eventually send dozens of M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

This also plays a role in the decision making, I am sure:

Polls suggest only a third to 46% of Germans favour supplying tanks.

Failure to communicate? Scholz thinking on tanks for Ukraine perplexes many Germans

"Scholzology" - the art of understanding German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's decisions - is in vogue as critics at home and abroad question his reluctance to supply the German-made battle tanks Ukraine wants to repulse Russian forces.

www.reuters.com

 

[swerve]

It could also be an issue of the definition of request.

A country may have broached the subject with the German government informally, and the response was "it's not convenient right now" or "wait a couple of weeks before asking again". I seem to recall a similar thing happened roughly a decade ago when Taiwan asked for new F-16s. Washington did not formally issue a statement saying "we will not sell new F-16s", but it indicated informally that it would not process Taiwan's request if it was submitted. Accordingly, Taiwan decided not to push the issue for fear of damaging relations.

Germany is the sort of place where I can imagine officialdom saying "if it wasn't submitted in triplicate on NATO Form 26Ya, it wasn't a request". So maybe the Germans were technically correct in that an official, diplomatic request for transfer was not made. But they may have also been quietly pushing for that official request to not be made.

This is speculation, of course. However, Poland has been talking about German authorisation for transferring tanks for some time. It's not like Germany couldn't have said it had decided to authorise tank transfers to Ukraine and just needed the paperwork for stamping.

That's more or less what just happened. On Sunday the German foreign minister said in public "We haven't had a request yet, but if we did we'd be inclined to allow it", or something similar. Two days later a formal request went in from Poland.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

That's more or less what just happened. On Sunday the German foreign minister said in public "We haven't had a request yet, but if we did we'd be inclined to allow it", or something similar. Two days later a formal request went in from Poland.

I was talking about the events prior to Sunday - the discussion about German tanks has been going on for a while.

Also, whilst I don't want to nitpick, I don't know that the German foreign minister is the person that makes the final decision on defence transfers. It's even possible that she was trying to bounce Scholz into agreement - she's from the Greens, and they've reportedly been frustrated with Scholz, believing him to be too cautious on providing heavy weapons.

 

[KipPotapych]

Well,

(S+) Krieg in der Ukraine: Deutschland schickt Leopard-Panzer

Nach monatelanger Debatte hat sich Kanzler Scholz durchgerungen, Kampfpanzer an die Ukraine zu liefern. Auch die Verbündeten wollen offenbar mitziehen. Aus den USA könnten Abrams-Panzer kommen.

www.spiegel.de

Germany sends leopard tanks to Ukraine

After months of debate, Chancellor Scholz has managed to deliver main battle tanks to Ukraine. The allies also apparently want to go along. Abrams tanks could come from the USA.

Can’t read the rest of the article as I don’t have the access. But here

Германия согласилась отправить танки на Украину

Канцлер ФРГ Олаф Шольц разрешит отправить Украине основные боевые танки Leopard 2, речь идет как минимум об одной танковой роте Leopard модификации 2A6. Об этом сообщает журнал Der Spiegel. По их информации, в этот раз танки поступят со складов Бундесвера, но в дальнейшей в поставки будут...

m.lenta.ru

referencing the very same article, they are saying (via google translate):

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will allow to send the main Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, we are talking about at least one Leopard tank company of modification 2A6, consisting of ten tanks. This is reported by Der Spiegel magazine.

According to their information, this time the tanks will come from the warehouses of the Bundeswehr, but in the future other tanks from the industrial reserves of the German military-industrial complex will be included and prepared in the supply.

 

[Dex]

^ Reports indicate that the US may also be reconsidering their position on Abrams, so there wouldn’t be much else Germany can point to in saying no and speed up the process.

U.S. poised to approve sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine

The United States, in a reversal, is poised to start a process that would eventually send dozens of M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Tuesday.

www.reuters.com

This also plays a role in the decision making, I am sure:

Polls suggest only a third to 46% of Germans favour supplying tanks.

Failure to communicate? Scholz thinking on tanks for Ukraine perplexes many Germans

"Scholzology" - the art of understanding German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's decisions - is in vogue as critics at home and abroad question his reluctance to supply the German-made battle tanks Ukraine wants to repulse Russian forces.

www.reuters.com

100 Leopards and 100 Abrams seems like it would make a massive difference in the battlefield. That could shift the tide of the war.

 

[KipPotapych]

Reuters confirms the German decision to send tanks (as well as permit others to do the same), but provides no further details at this point:

Germany has decided to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine to help fight Russia's invasion and allow other countries such as Poland to do the same, while the United States may supply Abrams tanks, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

Russia unleashes missiles, drones at Ukraine after Kyiv secures tanks, 11 dead

Russia sent Ukrainian civilians racing for cover with a barrage of missiles and drones, killing at least 11 people according to officials, a day after Kyiv won Western pledges of dozens of battlefield tanks to try to repel Russia's invasion.

www.reuters.com

Saw somewhere today that Norway is deliberating sending some tanks as well. Don’t recall where though.

I am reading about this… gotta be the third time in the past two weeks: Americans are advising the Ukes to abandon Bakhmut in order to save troops and prepare for the spring offensive. This CNN article suggests that Zelensky disagrees.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/24/politics/ukraine-shift-tactics-bakhmut/index.html

 

[KipPotapych]

One more, in regards to tanks. Politico is reporting that US is considering sending as many as 30 Abrams and we may hear about it this week.

U.S. closer to approving ‘significant number’ of Abrams tanks to Ukraine

The decision, which could be announced this week, comes as Germany authorizes the transfer of Leopard tanks to the Ukrainian military.

www.politico.com

 

[swerve]

I was talking about the events prior to Sunday - the discussion about German tanks has been going on for a while.

Also, whilst I don't want to nitpick, I don't know that the German foreign minister is the person that makes the final decision on defence transfers. It's even possible that she was trying to bounce Scholz into agreement - she's from the Greens, and they've reportedly been frustrated with Scholz, believing him to be too cautious on providing heavy weapons.

I also doubt that she makes the decision, but I wouldn't be surprised if her statement both encouraged the Poles to finally put in a formal request, & made it very hard indeed for Scholtz to deny or delay approval. The Polish announced the next day that they'd submit a request a request, & apparently delivered it this morning.

I imagine that anyone who can spare any will now feel under pressure to contribute, & those with dilapidated stored ones will be under pressure to tart 'em up ASAP.

 

[MarcH]

The numbers currently circling in German news outlets are 14 Leopard 2 A6 from Germany and 20-30 Abrams from the US. welt
Reason I link welt is because they not only refer to spiegel, but claim confirmation by their own sources.
Another tidbit is the explanation why A6 and not older marks: they couldn't be supported in the long run.
And as downside they claim Germanys armored formations can't contribute much to NATO's collective defense anymore. Same effect as with the PzH 2k: Ukraine will have priority for spare parts and ammo.

 

[seaspear]

America has a large amount of Abrams in storage mostly 1980 models

Ukraine Getting US Abrams Tanks Seems Like a Foregone Conclusion

The implications of Poland hurriedly building infra to support M1s go beyond Poland

antiempire.substack.com

.
There was an earlier proposal to provide diesel engines to the Abrams that would address some of the logistic issues
Abrams Dieselization Project: A Modest Proposal | Defense Media Network
The Abrams Gets An APU - Diesel Progress

 

[Terran]

America has a large amount of Abrams in storage mostly 1980 models

Ukraine Getting US Abrams Tanks Seems Like a Foregone Conclusion

The implications of Poland hurriedly building infra to support M1s go beyond Poland

antiempire.substack.com

.
There was an earlier proposal to provide diesel engines to the Abrams that would address some of the logistic issues
Abrams Dieselization Project: A Modest Proposal | Defense Media Network
The Abrams Gets An APU - Diesel Progress

They built a Demo vehicle sporting an MTU883 the same as the Leopard 2 but never progressed with it as the cost just wasn’t worth the results.
I mean sure some “improvement” in fuel economy but the weight would go up as the MTU power pack is about double the weight of the ATG as well as the improved fuel economy only being maybe 40%… None of the current Abrams users we’re looking to fork over the funds to develop it farther.
The AbramsX demonstrator showed at the last AUSA seems like it was built on the same hull. It sports a new Hybrid Power pack made of an electronic drive mated to a 6 cylinder opposed piston Diesel that system the Cummins Advanced Combat Engine family though is still not in production.

 

[ngatimozart]

Finally the German govt see the sense. According to War Monitor it's 15 Leopards.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1617946496946819073

This illustrates the smoothness of the Leopard in a typically German way; and a way that the Poms, Aussies, and Kiwis will appreciate.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1617951461564116992

According to Task and Purpose, "... President Joe Biden’s administration could announce this week that it plans to send “a significant number” of Abrams tanks to Ukraine". I think that would be the best solution.

US, Germany reportedly closer to providing tanks to Ukraine

The US is reportedly considering giving Ukraine between 30 and 50 M1 Abrams tanks.

taskandpurpose.com

"But sustaining so many different types of vehicles has become a logistical nightmare for Ukrainian forces, who refer to their eclectic fleet of vehicles as a “zoo,” Hlib Parfonov, a defense analyst who works with the Jamestown Foundation think tank in Washington, D.C., told Task & Purpose earlier this month." However "... retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, noted that the United States has thousands of Bradley Fighting Vehicles, so finding spare parts for the Ukrainians should not be a major challenge." The same would apply to the Abrams and the biggest issue will be the training of Ukrainian crews to operate and maintain them. I am sure that somewhere the US Army has a program drafted up for the quick training of new crews in a wartime scenario, where peacetime protocols are set aside, and practicality is used to cut down the training time in order to have increased tank crews on the line in the shortest possible time.

UK Forces News on why the Ukrainians require western tanks. The former CO of 1RTR (Royal Tank Regiment) explains the reasoning.

Sweden is providing the CV9040 to Ukraine. This was announced on 19/1/23. The 40mm cannon will make a difference and the CV90 has a light tank variant with a105mm gun.

 

[ngatimozart]

There's a call from within the UK for western combat aircraft, including fast jets, be given to Ukraine. Robert Fox is the defence editor for the London Evening Standard and his rationale for such a call is that the Ukrainians need these to ensure that they are fully capable on the battlefield instead of fighting with one hand tied behind their back. He believes that Putin will widen the war, which is something that doesn't surprise me. The Russians have to eventually actively interdict NATO & others weapons deliveries to Ukraine, before they arrive in Ukraine.

Further discussion on the German delays in providing Leopards, but now that it's happening, it is suggested that the Leopards will "make a mess of Putin's army."

Info on the "Senator" armoured vehicle going to Ukraine.

 

[seaspear]

The U.K government has not ruled out supplying missiles to Ukraine that can reach inside Russia according to this statement
UK ‘not ruling out’ giving Ukraine missiles to reach Russia (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)

 

[Aerojoe]

I understand the push for western jets but what’s happened to the earlier Mig29 offer from Poland and Slovakia that the USA blocked? That would be 50 aircraft immediately, requiring no lengthy training and giving a meaningful increase in capabilities until F16s and like do eventually become an option

 

[KipPotapych]

There's a call from within the UK for western combat aircraft, including fast jets, be given to Ukraine.

The Dutch said last week they would consider supplying F-16’s if Ukraine asked for them.

Netherlands would consider helping Ukraine with F-16 fighters, Leopard 2 tanks

The Dutch Cabinet will look into supplying F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if the Kyiv government asks for it. During a parliamentary debate on Thursday, Minister Wopke Hoekstra of Foreign Affairs said the Cabinet would look at such a request with an “open mind.” In Davos, Minister Kajsa Ollongren...

nltimes.nl

 

[Sycarion]

What a surprise. Germany did what it said for so long it would do. Poland finally actually sends the request instead of just saying it would, it gets approved. The US seems like it will finally send their Abrams, Germany sends their Leopards.

@Sycarion
Text deleted. There is no need for inflammatory posts. We ban people for flaming, so don't do it again.