The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Vivendi · Jan 13, 2023

Vivendi said:
The Norwegian government announced just now that they are purchasing artillery ammunition from Norwegian manufacturer Nammo, amount: NOK 2.6 Billion (USD 263 million).

Back in August South African RDM announced that they had received a 155 mm contract in "the upper two-digit million Euro range" from an unnamed NATO country. RDM wins another NATO 155 mm artillery ammunition order - defenceWeb

In December they announced a new 155 mm contract from a NATO country, in the "mid three-digit hundred million Euro range" from an unnamed NATO country NATO country orders RDM 155mm ammunition - defenceWeb

In addition they have also announced several contracts for various NATO countries for 40 mm ammo. RDM nets more NATO 40 mm ammunition contracts - defenceWeb

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo has a nice article summarizing the situation in other countries, some highlights:

1. Czechoslovak Group aim to produce 100,000 pieces of artillery shells in 2023, a twofold increase in production compared to 2022. The company is also expanding production, mainly in Slovakia, and intend on hiring around 200 new workers in ammunition production.’

2. Norwegian Nammo aims to expand ammo production with a factor of 10 (see also post above on Nammo agreement with Norway).

3. The UK MoD has contracted BAE Systems to supply its armed forces with essential munitions over the next 15 years worth £2.4 billion ($2.93 billion). Additionally, BAE was adding new manufacturing lines in late 2022 to meet this demand. An extra £500-600 million was added to the country’s budget to jumpstart replenishment.

3. Rheinmetall has submitted a €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) bid for Spanish ammunition maker Expal Systems, which, if successful, would help boost production. The company also announced it is building a multi-million euro plant in Hungary to respond to the shortages and high demand, with production set to begin in 2027.

4. Romanian Minister of Economy, Florin Spataru, said last month that the country had invested around €81 million ($86.3 million) in production lines for ammunition and plans to continue doing so in 2023.
Europe rallies to replenish ammunition stockpiles as Ukraine war nears anniversary | Shephard (shephardmedia.com)

In other news, Pakistan is planning to ship 159 containers with 155 mm ammo to Ukraine in January. Pakistan Ukraine news: Pakistan set to dispatch 159 containers of ammunition to Ukraine - The Economic Times (indiatimes.com)

In yet another news, Italy and France are collaborating in sending a SAMP/T battery to Ukraine -- still a lot of technical issues to sort out before this can be shipped. Italy says "technical issues" delay supply of air defence system to Ukraine | Reuters

Sweden is working on a new support package. Archer will be shipped, it's not a question of if but when. Sweden OKs Transfer of Archer Self-Propelled Howitzers to Ukraine (thedefensepost.com)

Finland is working on it's 12th support package, no details yet. Finland also will donate Leo2, if other countries do the same Savola: Finland will send more defence materiel to Ukraine soon | News | Yle Uutiset

The Netherlands have allocated 2.5 billion Euros to support Ukraine in 2023. "The government expects that this amount will be necessary to provide military aid, support essential repair and reconstruction activities and contribute financially to efforts to combat impunity," the Cabinet said. Netherlands to earmark €2.5 billion to support Ukraine in 2023 | NL Times

In 2022 the Dutch military aid to Ukraine was nearly 1 billion Euro Dutch military aid to Ukraine is approaching €1 billion | NL Times

It all adds up...

Larry_L · Jan 13, 2023

The Guardian, a western leaning publication, confirms that Soledar has fallen. What I find interesting here is some images showing the destruction over time. The timeline is not stated. I am guessing about a month or so.

‘Hellish’ battle for Soledar symbolises state of Russia’s war in Ukraine

Fall of saltmining town would be propaganda coup for Kremlin but analysts say scale of casualties make it a pyrrhic victory

www.theguardian.com

.

Feanor · Jan 13, 2023

denix56 said:
Regarding last post - I have checked Facebook. There is neither this post nor the person with this avatar on Facebook. It might be the fake info.

This is entirely possible The sources are social media. Even if the account existed, there's no guarantee.

KipPotapych · Jan 14, 2023

Sounds like the tanks are coming. Britain is reportedly sending some Challenger 2 tanks (to be officially announced tomorrow), according to The Independent, and Germany is, allegedly, to follow with Leopards (the decision is to be made on January 20). Chain reaction afterwards, I am assuming.

Logic or no logic, the Russian sources were implicating the significance of Bakhmut defence line, which is likely going to fall in time now that Soledar has been taken.

This leaves me wondering at what point is this going to grow into an all out conflict?..

Stuart M · Jan 14, 2023

KipPotapych said:
This leaves me wondering at what point is this going to grow into an all out conflict?..

It wont.

The West will make every effort short of direct entry to this war;
If Ukraine doesn't win, then we did our utmost, and if they win, then we did our utmost to help them do so.

But understand this clearly: the direct entry into the conflict by the west means that inside a week its all over for civilisation as we know it.

Its not 1914 or 1939, nuclear weapons have created a strategic impasse that makes even dictators sane; you cannot be dictator, or get elected for that matter, if you are part of a radioactive dust cloud, and they all know it.

KipPotapych · Jan 14, 2023

^ You would have to define “direct entry” (boots on the ground is a step after, imo) and “winning” in this context.

Stuart M · Jan 14, 2023

Then you would need to define " grow into an all out conflict".
Of course for Ukraine it is already an all out conflict, one of survival as an independent nation, is that what you mean?
I interpret what you have said as a 4th of August 1914 moment.

KipPotapych · Jan 14, 2023

Actually, I am not sure what an all-out conflict would look like today (you defined it fairly well in your post as far my “imagination” is concerned).

I’ll mull it over and reply later. However, if the dictator, as you call it, is insane and is all on at this point…

John Fedup · Jan 14, 2023

Apparently the US is now going to duplicate Russia’s approach to utilizing moth-balled weapons from the Cold War era.

The United States is dusting off Cold War-era weapons for use in Ukraine

The United States is delving into its old Cold War stockpiles to keep Ukraine’s armed forces fighting with new old Cold War-era weapons.

www.wearethemighty.com

Feanor · Jan 14, 2023

John Fedup said:
Apparently the US is now going to duplicate Russia’s approach to utilizing moth-balled weapons from the Cold War era.

The United States is dusting off Cold War-era weapons for use in Ukraine

The United States is delving into its old Cold War stockpiles to keep Ukraine’s armed forces fighting with new old Cold War-era weapons.

www.wearethemighty.com

It was inevitable. Stocks of modern equipment are not enough for this war. The losses being taken and the scale of the fighting are more then anything anyone prepared for.

T.C.P · Jan 14, 2023

5 more plant hit in the latest wave-

Ukraine power company says its plants in five regions have been hit

Air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine on Saturday. A Russian missile strike killed five people and wounded dozens more at an apartment in the city of Dnipro, authorities said.

www.cnn.com

Surlovkin's hit the powergrid plan is still staying and Russia is maintaining the strikes every 2 weeks.

Ukraine claims that they have regularly downed 60-70% of icnoming missile strikes. We have seen multiple interception videos are after each strike and its some of the best footage of the war, but is there any OSINT available thatis working on reporting the actual interception rate?

Stuart M · Jan 14, 2023

Feanor said:
It was inevitable. Stocks of modern equipment are not enough for this war. The losses being taken and the scale of the fighting are more then anything anyone prepared for.

Its the great 'shell shortage' of 1915 all overagain, so here's a Churchill quote on the subject, for the Great Man is good for a quote on this sort of stuff:

Here is the history of munitions production: first year, very little; second year, not much, but something; third year, almost all you want; fourth year, more than you need.

Of course munitions of all types are vastly more sophisticated today, so producing it takes longer and this will force some trade-offs that perhaps we wouldnt want to make.

Mark Cancian (Colonel, U.S. Marine Corps, ret) writes on this subject in 2017

After a generation of absence, interest in long wars against peer adversaries has returned and with it, an interest in mobilization. Many observers — from Eliot Cohen to senior members of the Joint Staff to David Barno and Nora Bensahel — have warned about it. Long wars require industrial mobilization, and when strategists and planners think of these things, they think of World War II and all that came with it: conversion of civilian industry to military use, mass production, a long buildup of forces, and, finally, well-equipped, massive armies that overwhelm opponents.

But a long war today would be totally different. In fact, after about nine months of intense peer conflict, attrition would grind the U.S. armed forces down to something resembling the military of a regional power. The Army, for example, would be armed primarily with infantry weapons with heavy firepower coming from gun trucks and a trickle of modern equipment acquired from struggling domestic production and whatever logisticians could scrounge up on the world market. This state of affairs arises because the U.S. government has not thought seriously about industrial mobilization. It is far easier to bask in warm memories of World War II than to face the harsh choices that mobilization preparation entails.

Long Wars and Industrial Mobilization: It Won’t Be World War II Again

After a generation of absence, interest in long wars against peer adversaries has returned and with it, an interest in mobilization. Many observers — from

warontherocks.com

Whilst this article is about the US being a direct combatant, I think the Ukraine war is showing the principle holds true; as you say, the west is not prepared for it, the draw downs of the Wests armed forces and the industrial capacity that sustained them has proven the opponents of those cuts right.
Its such a tragedy that we have been here before, haven't learned the lessons of history and in this case it's Ukraine that's suffering for it,

KipPotapych · Jan 14, 2023

T.C.P said:
Ukraine claims that they have regularly downed 60-70% of icnoming missile strikes. We have seen multiple interception videos are after each strike and its some of the best footage of the war, but is there any OSINT available thatis working on reporting the actual interception rate?

I don't believe there is. I also believe their claim is usually up to 90% intercept rate of incoming missiles. Hard to tell, but there were at least a couple of times that they claimed to intercept X number of missiles when having >X number of targets successfully hit, by their own admission. Many things make zero sense that are reported to and by the media, many are outright lies and propaganda that change when convenient.

For example, the latest apartment strike in Dnipro. First reported as Russian missile strike, then Arestovich claiming that the missile was actually intercepted and exploded when it fell on the apartment building, then Oleschuk (Ukrainian AF commander) stating that they did not intercept the missile and claiming, as proof, that the missile was X-22 and they have never intercepted one yet because they do not have the capabilities to do so until they receive Patriots or SAMP/T (via Google translate):

“…Radar facilities detected the approximate launch site, altitude, flight speed. There is no doubt that it was the X-22 missile - no. The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have weapons capable of shooting down this type of missiles,” he said.

Mykola Oleshchuk added that since the beginning of Russia's military aggression on the territory of Ukraine, more than 210 missiles of this type have been fired, and not a single one has been shot down by air defense systems…

Only anti-aircraft missile systems, which in the future can be provided to Ukraine by Western partners (we are talking about systems such as the Patriot PAC-3 or SAMP-T), are capable of intercepting these air targets, he said.

The guy, of course, is being dishonest in order to portray the picture a certain way. For instance, one documented case of X-22 being shot down over Odesa (see link under May 30 for photos and further description in Ukrainian): Why Russia Is Using Old Kh-22 Aircraft Carrier-Killer Missiles to Hit Ukraine

It is extremely difficult to believe any of the claims because some effort (and often very little of it) and looking into it proves that the official is lying. And it is not like it is a one of type thing, but rather quite systematic.

I certainly find it hard to find, given amount of strikes and destroyed infrastructure, that their interception rate is anywhere close to what they claim.

edit: this part “they claimed to intercept X number of missiles when having >X number of targets successfully hit” should read as “they claimed that X number of missiles were not intercepted when having >X number of targets successfully hit”. Apologies for the confusion.

seaspear · Jan 15, 2023

Ukraine has become a laboratory for weapons and strategy that has not been seen for some time between peer states ,it would be no surprise if countries around the world adjust their defence budgets accordingly to justify their acquisition of such weapons if they could not be effective
How Ukraine became a laboratory for western weapons and battlefield innovation | CNN Politics
Eight military aviation lessons from the war in Ukraine - AeroTime
M-777 artillery weapons in Ukraine are on the verge of "becoming extinct - Defence View

Vivendi · Jan 15, 2023

Some analysts are suggesting that in the latest attack Russia fired missiles in a "looping ballistic trajectory", making it impossible for Ukraine to stop with their current SAMs: Dara Massicot on Twitter: " https://t.co/DD9G01jkNC" / Twitter

In other news, the UK has confirmed that in addition to Challenger 2s, the UK will also supply Ukraine with around 30 AS-90. UK to send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, Rishi Sunak confirms - BBC News

Stepped-up training of Ukranian soldiers to start in Germany next week. Bradleys will soon be operational. "We are talking weeks not months". Stars and Stripes

Vivendi · Jan 15, 2023

seaspear said:
Ukraine has become a laboratory for weapons and strategy that has not been seen for some time between peer states ,it would be no surprise if countries around the world adjust their defence budgets accordingly to justify their acquisition of such weapons if they could not be effective
How Ukraine became a laboratory for western weapons and battlefield innovation | CNN Politics
Eight military aviation lessons from the war in Ukraine - AeroTime
M-777 artillery weapons in Ukraine are on the verge of "becoming extinct - Defence View

I think it was known before this war that towed artillery was not the best solution in a high-intensity war, and that self-propelled is the way to go. The M777 is also not that "modern", it was designed in the 80s. The more modern Caesars, PHZ-2000 have had more success. The story linked to above is very critical of the Caesar. Whereas there have been some maintenance issues, they have also been appreciated by Ukrainians, according to some reports. CAESAR self-propelled guns celebrate six months in Ukraine: What are the impressions of their performance? - Technology Org
France, Denmark Negotiate Additional Caesar Howitzers for Ukraine: Report (thedefensepost.com)

Europe for sure will invest in more artillery -- Poland already ordered a large number of K9, Norway also ordered more K9 than what they had originally planned.

Many great lessons on the aviation front, however, one should also keep in mind that US/NATO is two generations ahead of what Ukraine is currently fielding. The F-22/F-35 in combination with modern Western missiles is so far and beyond what Ukraine got, that it's not comparable at all. With one important caveat: on the ground, the F-35 is as vulnerable as a MiG-29 or Su-27. Food for thought.

Vivendi · Jan 15, 2023

Andrej Medvedev, former commander in Wagner, has escaped Russia and is applying for asylum in Norway. He crossed the Norwegian-Russian border last week. gulagu.net claim they were assisting Medvedev in his escape, they also say he was hunted by border guards and shots were fired. He arrived at a house in Norway and the woman living there assisted him in getting in touch with Norwegian authorities. He is now in Oslo, and the Norwegian authorities will process his asylum request. I am sure he has some interesting stories to tell from his stay in Ukraine.

Ex-commander of the IAF PMC Wagner Andrei Medvedev left the Russian Federation and requested asylum (gulagu.net)
Tidligere leder i Wagner-gruppen har flyktet til Norge - VG

Vivendi · Jan 15, 2023

European leaders react to the latest terrorist bombing done by Russia, and increases the pressure to deliver offensive weapons.

Kaja Kallas on Twitter: "With attacks on #Dnipro and elsewhere in Ukraine, Russia has again proven it is a terrorist state. My call to allies and partners: let us ramp up our support. #Ukraine needs weapons, including tanks and air defence. #Russia must be held accountable for all crimes committed." / Twitter

Mateusz Morawiecki on Twitter: "Russia intentionally keeps on committing war crimes against civilians. It’s inhuman. We need to act now and make them stop. Rosja celowo popełnia kolejne zbrodnie wojenne na ludności cywilnej. To nieludzkie. Musimy działać natychmiast, żeby ją powstrzymać." / Twitter

The UK is acelerating their support for Ukraine: James Cleverly on Twitter: "The UK is accelerating our support for Ukraine. We’re sending tanks and matching or increasing military spending for Ukraine this year. The full details of this will be announced by @BWallaceMP tomorrow." / Twitter

Finnish blogger Corporal Frisk has written a short story on Leopards and Ukraine -- apart from the political aspects in various countries (in particular Germany) there are some technical aspects that needs to be considered. In particular, there are different versions of the Leo 2, the most relevant being A4, A5, and A6. Going for one variant (the most likely would be A4) and limiting to Europe/NATO countries only, the number of potential Leo 2 is suddenly reduced quite a lot... Free the Leopards – Corporal Frisk

Additional assistance from Germany, since last week:

4 mine clearing tanks*
4 mobile and protected mine clearing systems*
95 border protection vehicles* (before: 85)
168 mobile heating systems* (before: 48)

Military support for Ukraine | Federal Government (bundesregierung.de)

A new claim that Ukraine has captures a T-90 S (export tank): Rob Lee on Twitter: "Ukrainian forces captured a Russian T-90S tank designed for export contracts. https://t.co/t7O9BS77ov https://t.co/v3W3ozHLja" / Twitter

Feanor · Jan 15, 2023

Update. Dec 13th-16th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Battle damage from Russian strikes against the Kherson city administration.

Moscow calling

На нахуй получай Херсонское ОГА ебаное! Главное сука помни что Херсон это неотъемлемая часть РФ! Конституция, ёпта!

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилет по зданию Херсонской администрации.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В Херсоне попадания по бывшему зданию администрации.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия прилета по Херсонской администрации. Повреждено несколько этажей.

t.me

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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