The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Is it correct that the Wagner group were supported by t-90m tanks in this assault on Soledar?
This is accurate. They received some (possibly 3) shortly before the final push. In principle it makes sense. They're fighting very actively, they're part of a major assault. They should be given appropriate equipment.

EDIT: It appears Prigozhin's photo from Soledar might be a fake, and may have been taken in Vladimirovka. Prior reports put him in the Salt Museum in Soledar. That museum is on the western outskirts.

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
The reports indicate that Surovikin is gone and the new chief is in and the new chief is the chief himself - Gerasimov.



An interesting report from Foreign Policy stating that Turkey is supplying the Ukes with cluster shells since November:

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The reports indicate that Surovikin is gone and the new chief is in and the new chief is the chief himself - Gerasimov.

It's a very interesting event. Apparently Gerasimov is the new commander, with Surovikin (head of the VKS) becoming his deputy along with Salyukov (head of the Land Forces) and Kim (deputy-head of the General HQ). I think this is a sign that Surovikin's attempt to win the air war has failed. We've seen Russian efforts to reveal Ukrainian air defenses and destroy them have failed. While Ukraine lost many more SAMs in the mid-October to mid-December time frame then before, this hasn't been nearly enough, and we haven't seen any of the more advanced western systems getting hit. On the flip side he's still there in a high-level role. It's likely a sign that the mass strikes won't stop any time soon, and are having some effect.

I've seen speculation that after the rolling back of the Serdyukov reforms, Gerasimov was slowly but surely sidelined. Him being brought back to the top might be a sign. It could also be a sign that Russia is preparing for a major ground offensive.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
The Russian MOD has reported on events in Ukraine. They slightly contradict the claims by the Wagner group regarding Soledar.

MoD Russia

There are many reports that Lapin General Alexander Lapin has been appointed leader of the Ground Forces. If true this may be a slap at Prigozhin and Kadyrov. It mar also be a move to "Coup proof" the administration.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Russian MOD has reported on events in Ukraine. They slightly contradict the claims by the Wagner group regarding Soledar.

MoD Russia

There are many reports that Lapin General Alexander Lapin has been appointed leader of the Ground Forces. If true this may be a slap at Prigozhin and Kadyrov. It mar also be a move to "Coup proof" the administration.

He's announced commander of HQ for Land Forces. Not commander of Land Forces. In the Russian military there is a commander, and there is a commander of the headquarters.

EDIT: Language barrier. After a little research, the English translation of the title is Chief of General Staff. In Russian it's literally Начальник Штаба .
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update on Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

Prigozihn.


Russian MoD claims fighting in Soledar is continuing, cites VDV involvement, and doesn't claim the city has fallen. Prigozhin's announcement was likely premature and possibly part of the internal political struggles.


It appears his photo was from a salt mine on the outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, not in Soledar itself.


Meanwhile footage of him continues to surface.


In conclusion, I think Soledar remains partly contested despite recent Russian gains. It seems likely Russia has most of the city.

Soledar.


Ukrainian border guard in Soledar using UAV-directed machinegun fires and artillery strikes against advancing Russian forces. Note we had a video yesterday of Ukrainian border guards that exited Soledar, so this footage might be a few days old.


Allegedly Ukrainian UAV footage of Russian forces moving in the western part of Soledar.


A strange allegedly Ukrainian sourced video claiming control of Soledar remains under Ukraine. Except the video was released on 01-11, but the speaker claims the date is the 12th. This could be a Ukrainian fake or a Russian double fake. Based on the UAV footage and zoom, it seems like this is being shot by a Ukrainian UAV operator sitting in a village west of Soledar.


A destroyed Ukrainian pickup truck on the road out of Soledar.


A video from allegedly the Ukrainian side exiting Soledar, the words claim that Ukraine lost 14 btlns defending this town. This seems unlikely to put it mildly. It's possible a total of 14 btlns were involved over the course of some weeks, and took some losses each.


Allegedly a Ukrainian soldier claims that their command told them to stay an extra day in Soledar, while theer officers fled. Lots of less-than-polite words about his officers.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have taken Opytnoe. Note this is a small village in the south, practically a suburb of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, and has been contested for weeks. The last reports had Russian forces controlling about 60-80% of the village, so this is neither a significant gain nor particularly implausible, but in light of the conflicting claims around Soledar, evidence is needed.


Battle damage inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A Ukrainian MBT gets hit by a Russian loitering munition to the back of the turret. Note, the Lancet-3 specifically was seen as not having a large warhead, and having a hard time taking out armored vehicles. In this case we get smoke after the impact but the ammo doesn't cook off the way one would expect if the rear of the turret is penetrated this way. We also don't see flames, though it's hard to tell for sure. It's possible the tank survived.


A Ukrainian M-777 near Artemovsk/Bakhmut gets hit. We're seeing an uptick in Russian use of loitering munitions. This might be an attempt to do what they did in Pavlovka, use large numbers of loitering munitions in a small area for both interdiction and attrition.


A YPR-765 captured by Russian forces near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Update on Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

Prigozihn.


Russian MoD claims fighting in Soledar is continuing, cites VDV involvement, and doesn't claim the city has fallen. Prigozhin's announcement was likely premature and possibly part of the internal political struggles.

Prigozhin says on Telegram that he wants to reiterate that Soledar is under their control and they currently cleaning it out. Claims that about 500 Ukes have been killed, including those who refused to put their weapons down.


He also said that the body of one of the two mia Brits was found and the guy had passports of both of them.

It is interesting how Prigozhin went from the guy you could hardly ever hear about to cautious statements to “talk over” ministry of defence in short few years.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Prigozhin says on Telegram that he wants to reiterate that Soledar is under their control and they currently cleaning it out. Claims that about 500 Ukes have been killed, including those who refused to put their weapons down.


He also said that the body of one of the two mia Brits was found and the guy had passports of both of them.

It is interesting how Prigozhin went from the guy you could hardly ever hear about to cautious statements to “talk over” ministry of defence in short few years.
He's gotten much more active in the past 3 months. Truth be told, Artemovsk/Bakhmut and Soledar are the only real successes Russia can boast, and Wagner has been front and center in both. Granted the former has yet to fall but it's looking increasingly likely. There is an argument that the towers of the Kremlin are infighting and Prigozhin is catching fish in murky waters. Remember he's also taken over a significant portion of the war effort with Wagner holding sections of the front from Belogorovka (north-west of Lisichansk) all the way down to just north of Gorlovka. This is a huge area. They're also training self defense militias in border regions in Russia. And prior to this they were just used in localized areas, like the assault on Popasnaya.

EDIT; Wagner is getting their own official telegram channel to publish info. It looks like Prigozhin is seriously upping his profile.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
... In conclusion, I think Soledar remains partly contested despite recent Russian gains. It seems likely Russia has most of the city. ...
This is one of those American usages which makes me wince. I looked up Soledar, & it was a small town (& now a ruin, as far as I can see). It's strange to us in the UK for a small town like that with no special status to be called a city.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
This is one of those American usages which makes me wince. I looked up Soledar, & it was a small town (& now a ruin, as far as I can see). It's strange to us in the UK for a small town like that with no special status to be called a city.
In Russian it's all город (gorod = city). There isn't really a word for town, though oddly enough there is a term for a "settlement" (поселок ) that's often used to refer to urban-type population centers that are very small and in a rural area. Prime example would be 15-25 multi-story apartment buildings in the middle of fields and forests, with no villages or "private sector" houses.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
He's gotten much more active in the past 3 months. Truth be told, Artemovsk/Bakhmut and Soledar are the only real successes Russia can boast, and Wagner has been front and center in both. Granted the former has yet to fall but it's looking increasingly likely. There is an argument that the towers of the Kremlin are infighting and Prigozhin is catching fish in murky waters. Remember he's also taken over a significant portion of the war effort with Wagner holding sections of the front from Belogorovka (north-west of Lisichansk) all the way down to just north of Gorlovka. This is a huge area. They're also training self defense militias in border regions in Russia. And prior to this they were just used in localized areas, like the assault on Popasnaya.

EDIT; Wagner is getting their own official telegram channel to publish info. It looks like Prigozhin is seriously upping his profile.

It could be argued that the latest reshuffle at the top is Putin is beginning to put Prigozhin in his place and that Putin's had enough of his grandstanding and criticising. Shogiu will have had to approve such changes and I suggest that he would have spoken with Putin before doing so. Or the change is by Putin's command. Either way Prigozhin is not as secure with the boss, that he thought was.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Dara Massicot, about the latest shuffle: Dara Massicot on Twitter: "Russians demoted their "fixer" commander https://t.co/AvQ5QY9Jwo" / Twitter

Basically it's the result of a power struggle, and the results will most likely be disastrous for the Russian military, given the horrible track record of Gerasimov and Shoygu earlier in this war. Things already looked very grim for Russian forces, and this replacement on the top is most likely going to make things worse. Good for Ukraine that the incompetents are back though.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
I just read an article on MSN regarding the mine fields in Ukraine. It was claimed by the PM of Ukraine that the now cover 250000sq Km of Ukraine and that this is the largest mined area in the world. While there was meant to be an ban on anti personal mines from 1997, the Russians (not a signatory to the ban) have used them in large numbers. Both sides are using anti tank mines.
this going to leave one huge mess to clean up clean up after this is over. I would say it will take years and maybe decades.
Ukraine has become the world's largest minefield
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

Ukrainian sources are spreading information about a Wagner team raid in Ukrainian uniforms on a Ukrainain HQ, killing a number of service members with handguns equipped with suppressors. The HQ in question is a btln HQ of the 17th Tanks Bde. Exact location is unclear, but considering where the front line might be fluid enough and where Wagner is particularly active, I believe this is somewhere near Soledar or Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Heavy fighting is being reported by Ukrainian sources over the village of Praskovievka. The fall of this village will cut the road from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Seversk, and significant increase the threat to Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Soledar.

A length 10 minute news report from inside Soledar. We also have reports of an unsuccessful counter-attack against Soledar by Ukraine's 46th and 77th Bdes.


Ukrainian forces possibly 46th Para-Assault Bde attempted to break out of Soledar. The lead vehicle hit a land mine, the VAB following it was shot up by heavy machinegun from a nearby position. The area is still covered by Ukrainian sniper fire, making it impossible for the person filming to approach. This suggests that the vehicles almost made it out.


Footage from inside Soledar shows significant damage to the town. While some buildings appear to be mostly intact, others are nearly completely destroyed. No sounds of fighting can be heard in these clips, but it's not clear exactly where they were shot.


Geo-location of Wagner footage that seems to corroborate most if not all of Soledar being under Russian control.


Wagner fighters walking around Soledar, the fighting in this area seems to be over.


Ukrainian soldiers on the western outskirts of Soledar near Salt Mine No7.


Ukrainian WIAs leaving Soledar.


A Ukrainian tank company riding T-72M1s near Soledar.


Ukraine's 43rd Arty Bde operating near Soledar showed off the combat load of their PzH-2000, which includes SMArt 155mm guided anti-tank rounds with two bomblets each.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

RT footage from Opytnoe, the village on the southern outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note we don't know when the footage was taken. This could be indication that the village is still contested, or that the front line is so close to the village that it's effectively still engaged.


Ukrainian volunteer btln Freedom complains of large losses in the Artemovsk/Bakhmut area. They are not the first unit to come forward with complaints such as these.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
UK Forces News item on the significance of Soledar.

Retired UK Major General Tim Cross on how NATO can provide MBT capability to Ukraine and why it needs to.

Lord Dannat, retired UK CGS on how Putin's tank could cost him the war.

EX UK Ambassador to Moscow on prospect of Russian - Ukrainian negotiations.

Apparently Russia has already destroyed four Bradleys that US sent to Ukraine. This claim was made last September. Must have been the super secret stealth Bradleys that no one knew existed. :D


Unconfirmed Ukrainian claim that they killed ~100 Russian soldiers in Soledar with a single missile. Apparently they had been grouped together. If this is indeed the case then some officers have trouble learning lessons.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1613427713762811906?

Diagram explaining Russian propaganda.

https://twitter.com/Official_NAFO/status/1613215417803149314?

UK MOD on UK Stormer vehicles fitted with StarStreak being sent to UK as part of a 200 vehicle Stormer consignment.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1613234414200184858?

Ukrainians are sending a captured Russian KA-52 Alligator to the US for study.
https://twitter.com/intermarium24/status/1607665378225803264?
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The Norwegian government announced just now that they are purchasing artillery ammunition from Norwegian manufacturer Nammo, amount: NOK 2.6 Billion (USD 263 million). Nammo says this large, multiyear order will allow them to significantly expand production capacity. Nammo has 28 production facilities in 9 countries., however this ammo will be produced in Norway. The ammo will supply the Norwegian army and some of the ammo will also be donated to Ukraine. Nammo inngår milliardkontrakt med myndighetene – E24

Nammo says this new order is sufficient to produce "approx. 25,000 long range precision shells" -- not sure if that's the plan or if it's just an example of what 2.6 billilion NOK will get you (apart from expanded production capacity).

The agreement must be approved by the Norwegian parliament, however it is highly unlikely that the opposition will block this.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update Artemovsk/Bakhmut - Soledar.

It appears that Soledar has truly fallen despite Ukrainian claims to the contrary. While it's technically true that a single neighborhood, and a train station named Salt, are part of the municipality and still have a Ukrainian presence, they're separated from the town by fields and are effectively a separate area. To top it off, they're also under attack from 3 sides. Soledar proper is under Russian control. Note, capturing rail station Salt would effectively cut that same road from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Seversk, but wouldn't offer the same advantage in pushing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut that captured Praskovievka or Krasnaya Gora.

Lastly, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian attacks on Razdolevka (Rozdolivka · Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84540). If you take a look, you can see it's a logical next step after Yakovlevka, but aims clearly north of Soledar, towards Seversk, rather then towards Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It's possible Russia sees Seversk as a target of opportunity, while Ukrainian forces are tied down in defensive battles around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, and offensive battles (so far unsuccessful) around Kremennaya.


CNN confirms Ukrainian withdrawal from Soledar.


Aerial view of the destruction in Soledar. The town is effectively gone.


A destroyed Ukrainian M777 near Soledar, possibly the one we saw getting hit recently.


Ukrainian forces moving around in Krasnaya Gora. Artillery can be heard.


There is information from family members of Ukraine's 60th Infantry Bde, who are holding the front line south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, that the unit is taking horrific casualties, and the brigade and btln commanders are apparently nowhere to be found. The post in particular claims that the 3rd Company "has seized to exist" (wiped out?), and mentions that "your bats are all gone" (a bat is the Soviet-era symbol of recon, presumably this refers to either the absence or the casualties of the brigade's recon unit).

 

denix56

Active Member
Update Artemovsk/Bakhmut - Soledar.

It appears that Soledar has truly fallen despite Ukrainian claims to the contrary. While it's technically true that a single neighborhood, and a train station named Salt, are part of the municipality and still have a Ukrainian presence, they're separated from the town by fields and are effectively a separate area. To top it off, they're also under attack from 3 sides. Soledar proper is under Russian control. Note, capturing rail station Salt would effectively cut that same road from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to Seversk, but wouldn't offer the same advantage in pushing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut that captured Praskovievka or Krasnaya Gora.

Lastly, there are unconfirmed reports of Russian attacks on Razdolevka (Rozdolivka · Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84540). If you take a look, you can see it's a logical next step after Yakovlevka, but aims clearly north of Soledar, towards Seversk, rather then towards Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It's possible Russia sees Seversk as a target of opportunity, while Ukrainian forces are tied down in defensive battles around Artemovsk/Bakhmut, and offensive battles (so far unsuccessful) around Kremennaya.


CNN confirms Ukrainian withdrawal from Soledar.


Aerial view of the destruction in Soledar. The town is effectively gone.


A destroyed Ukrainian M777 near Soledar, possibly the one we saw getting hit recently.


Ukrainian forces moving around in Krasnaya Gora. Artillery can be heard.


There is information from family members of Ukraine's 60th Infantry Bde, who are holding the front line south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, that the unit is taking horrific casualties, and the brigade and btln commanders are apparently nowhere to be found. The post in particular claims that the 3rd Company "has seized to exist" (wiped out?), and mentions that "your bats are all gone" (a bat is the Soviet-era symbol of recon, presumably this refers to either the absence or the casualties of the brigade's recon unit).

Regarding last post - I have checked Facebook. There is neither this post nor the person with this avatar on Facebook. It might be the fake info.
 
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