ADF General discussion thread

[Julian 82]

Good perspective on Australia & China from Sam Roggaveen:

Sam Roggeveen on Twitter: "Some thoughts on Greg Sheridan's weekend column, specifically this paragraph on the Chinese military threat to Australia. https://t.co/1LmvxH2GJi https://t.co/nBchr5y9Zo" / Twitter

Distance is a very handy source of friction for any aggressor.

Regards,

Massive

While I agree with his comments that China presently has limited options against Australia, China is not standing still. China is building multiple aircraft carrier battle groups, SSNs and developing a long range stealth bomber (H20).

As each year goes by, the tyranny of distance becomes less of an obstacle. I don’t agree with his comments that we should forgo the SSNs for SSKs and simply wait for China to come to us. In the face of local air superiority (i.e through multiple aircraft carrier battle groups) an SSK may struggle to survive let alone be in a position to obtain a firing solution.

I would prefer to keep them at arms length rather than wait for a battle of Australia scenario.

 

[seaspear]

Apologies for quoting my own post but I found this a very helpful listen on this topic. In short, the effectiveness of drones may have been exaggerated by the Ukrainians for propaganda purposes.

Certainly this article suggests that drone warfare may be unappreciated
Seven (Initial) Drone Warfare Lessons from Ukraine - Modern War Institute (usma.edu)
This article goes into lessons that may be of use to Australia and that the technology of its development in Australia is to be encouraged
Lessons from Use of Drones in the Ukraine War — AI-enabled Multi-Mission Solutions (droneshield.com)

 

[alexsa]

While I agree with his comments that China presently has limited options against Australia, China is not standing still. China is building multiple aircraft carrier battle groups, SSNs and developing a long range stealth bomber (H20).

As each year goes by, the tyranny of distance becomes less of an obstacle. I don’t agree with his comments that we should forgo the SSNs for SSKs and simply wait for China to come to us. In the face of local air superiority (i.e through multiple aircraft carrier battle groups) an SSK may struggle to survive let alone be in a position to obtain a firing solution.

I would prefer to keep them at arms length rather than wait for a battle of Australia scenario.

While I completely agree that Australia should not forgo the SSN as they give us persistance and a significantly lower indesretaion ratio. Having an SSN sitting off a choke point is going to cause an incoming task group a lot of angst notng those choke poings are all in someone elses water. Unless the threat declares war on all these coastal states there will limitations on what they can do.

However, on the SSK (Oberons were called SSG's for a bit by the submarine commuity) issue a Collins is still going to be a hard nut if it is in the right place. The Collins has a modified version of the AN/BYG-1 used in the Virginia (noting this is intended to be fitted in what ever SSN we build) and is undergoing a SONAR upgrade that will provide systems with similar capability as the Astute SSN.

Collins Class Submarine Replacement | DST (defence.gov.au)
Collins Class submarines to receive sonar upgrades | Defence Ministers

The vessel carries the same Mk48 CBASS as the US submarines and can fire Harpoon and should be able to fire Tomahawk (once purchased). It can alos carry mines which can be quite useful in making life dificult for a task group transiting a choke point..

The boat is also very quiet (the boat did have issues to begin with but it is a quiet boat .... irrespective of some of the harping by some of the ill informed). So if it is on station with a full battery it should have the similar cability as the future SSN to get to a firing solution. What cannot do is transit as quickly as an SSN and is power limited meaning once you have engaged you may not be able to pursue your target due to the need to avoid detection and the difference in speed (and its impact on battery life). In addition I would suggest no right minded CO would be firing harpoon in any situation where a plume of steam and smoke will tell the opposition where you are, however, the Mk 48 is lethal and long ranged and will make ASW defence difficult .

I would expect that the Collins would not be playing solo if a task group was moving through Lombok or similar openings. I would suggest a joint action involving Submarines and aircraft from the mainland would make life quite complicated for a task force deploying out of a choke point.

 

[76mmGuns]

No. There’s a fragile peace with the Emu Kingdom, but everything west of Longreach is lost forever.

We need to buy 5 tomahawks per Emu cluster to soften them up. Then we can try to retake some of our lost land. (only some. The Emu's are too canny and formidable to drive off completely.)

 

[ngatimozart]

We need to buy 5 tomahawks per Emu cluster to soften them up. Then we can try to retake some of our lost land. (only some. The Emu's are too canny and formidable to drive off completely.)

You may have heard of our mountain parrot, the kea. It's the most intelligent bird in the world. We have had problems with them over the years and there are rumours that they've been advising the Emus on security and intelligence matters. Over here they are a real security problem and absolute infiltration and exfiltration experts. They are SF specialists especially in sabotage.

 

[ADMk2]

While I completely agree that Australia should not forgo the SSN as they give us persistance and a significantly lower indesretaion ratio. Having an SSN sitting off a choke point is going to cause an incoming task group a lot of angst notng those choke poings are all in someone elses water. Unless the threat declares war on all these coastal states there will limitations on what they can do.

However, on the SSK (Oberons were called SSG's for a bit by the submarine commuity) issue a Collins is still going to be a hard nut if it is in the right place. The Collins has a modified version of the AN/BYG-1 used in the Virginia (noting this is intended to be fitted in what ever SSN we build) and is undergoing a SONAR upgrade that will provide systems with similar capability as the Astute SSN.

Collins Class Submarine Replacement | DST (defence.gov.au)
Collins Class submarines to receive sonar upgrades | Defence Ministers

The vessel carries the same Mk48 CBASS as the US submarines and can fire Harpoon and should be able to fire Tomahawk (once purchased). It can alos carry mines which can be quite useful in making life dificult for a task group transiting a choke point..

The boat is also very quiet (the boat did have issues to begin with but it is a quiet boat .... irrespective of some of the harping by some of the ill informed). So if it is on station with a full battery it should have the similar cability as the future SSN to get to a firing solution. What cannot do is transit as quickly as an SSN and is power limited meaning once you have engaged you may not be able to pursue your target due to the need to avoid detection and the difference in speed (and its impact on battery life). In addition I would suggest no right minded CO would be firing harpoon in any situation where a plume of steam and smoke will tell the opposition where you are, however, the Mk 48 is lethal and long ranged and will make ASW defence difficult .

I would expect that the Collins would not be playing solo if a task group was moving through Lombok or similar openings. I would suggest a joint action involving Submarines and aircraft from the mainland would make life quite complicated for a task force deploying out of a choke point.

Small note - Collins ‘could’ carry mines, if we actually had any…

In the process of rectifying that I know, but presently that is a capability RAN is short of…

 

[buffy9]

Small note - Collins ‘could’ carry mines, if we actually had any…

In the process of rectifying that I know, but presently that is a capability RAN is short of…

Does Australia not have stocks of Stonefish? Probably not the most sophisticated weapon out there, but even dumber mines could slow down a task force or deter them from certain actions.

Mining a busy strait with dumb mines probably isn't a good idea though - and Collins can only carry so many weapons.

 

[ADMk2]

Does Australia not have stocks of Stonefish? Probably not the most sophisticated weapon out there, but even dumber mines could slow down a task force or deter them from certain actions.

Mining a busy strait with dumb mines probably isn't a good idea though - and Collins can only carry so many weapons.

No operational warstock is my understanding, only exercise mines for training purposes of naval platforms.

Project SEA 2000 seeks to resurrect an operational naval mining capability for ADF, subject of course to Government direction. An RFI only closed in late 2021, so any operational capability is years off.

I’d be very happy with a quick-strike capability being introduced rapidly to give us some capability and some of the new ship-board containerised launch systems being thoroughly analysed and assessed, for a sustainable long term capability.

Time will tell.

 

[Redlands18]

Australia to buy long-range HIMARS missile system from United States after Ukraine praises weapon's effectiveness against Russia - ABC News
Australia has finalised deals for 20 HIMARS systems as well as the NSM Naval strike missile. HIMARS by 2026 and NSM from 2024.

 

[aussienscale]

Australia to buy long-range HIMARS missile system from United States after Ukraine praises weapon's effectiveness against Russia - ABC News
Australia has finalised deals for 20 HIMARS systems as well as the NSM Naval strike missile. HIMARS by 2026 and NSM from 2024.

Sweet, so we are only buying them after Ukraine's praise of the system

 

[Milne Bay]

Sweet, so we are only buying them after Ukraine's praise of the system

I think that the war in Ukraine and the use of HIMARS was a wake-up call to the ADF.
The vulnerability and range of towed systems like the M777 has also been shown
We may have acquired them "eventually", but Ukraine has certainly put the skates on some acquisitions that might otherwise have taken decades
MB

 

[aussienscale]

I think that the war in Ukraine and the use of HIMARS was a wake-up call to the ADF.
The vulnerability and range of towed systems like the M777 has also been shown
We may have acquired them "eventually", but Ukraine has certainly put the skates on some acquisitions that might otherwise have taken decades
MB

Yep get that, you can see my wink at the end of my comment, in relation to the article title. Has certainly put some inertia into some acquisitions, but the issues and gaps have been well know in Defence for some time.

 

[Redlands18]

The 2020 Force Structure plan had "The Long Range Rocket and Missile Systems Fires" program kicking off in the 22-24 period, so maybe a touch early but not by much.

 

[phreeky]

This was the congress sale approval from May 2022: Australia – HIMARS Launchers | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

The Ukraine situation may have just compressed some time frames.

Also from October, has there been any news on this front? I can't find anything. Lockheed Proposes Anti-Ship Missile for Australian HIMARS: Report

Lockheed Martin has proposed mounting the AGM-184C Long Range Anti Ship Missile Surface Launched (LRASM-SL) on the HIMARS for the Australian Army, Naval News reported.

The Australian government has ordered 20 HIMARS launchers and munitions from the US for an estimated $385 million.

 

[Anthony_B_78]

This was the congress sale approval from May 2022: Australia – HIMARS Launchers | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

The Ukraine situation may have just compressed some time frames.

Also from October, has there been any news on this front? I can't find anything. Lockheed Proposes Anti-Ship Missile for Australian HIMARS: Report

I think it just suited the political narrative of the government, which doesn't want to be seen as weak on defence and can take some ownership on this front. It's a positive that the government - and media - can point to the Ukraine experience as to justify the expenditure on this particular capability. We often don't have that and we see many who are ignorant of the importance on investing defence being critical of such acquisitions.

 

[alexsa]

Small note - Collins ‘could’ carry mines, if we actually had any…

In the process of rectifying that I know, but presently that is a capability RAN is short of…

Agree …. The vessel and combat system can do it ….. if they had the weapon. It is one of those nascent capabilities that is missing a critical bit.

 

[hauritz]

The ABC is reporting that the Defence Strategic Review report will be handed to the government in the coming week.

A report into Australia's military is about to be handed down. Here are the five main challenges

The government will shortly receive the final report of the Defence Strategic Review of Australia's military. It has been a mammoth undertaking for its expert leads, but an even bigger task now lies ahead, writes Mick Ryan.

www.abc.net.au

At the same time Richard Marles is making it clear that the govenment is prepared to scale back certain defence projects to pay for it.

‘We don’t have limitless resources’: Australian government prepared to scale back defence projects.

The obvious target for this will be the Army's armoured vehicle program.

I have a feeling that a few of the recommendations are already being acted upon. The urgent purchase of sea mines, UUVs and fast tracking of new missile systems have all been given the go ahead. There are also rumors of a new class of corvette and perhaps additional F-35s but if the dire predictions coming from US military leaders such as General Minihan prove correct then the clock may have already run out on these projects.

 

[Redlands18]

The ABC is reporting that the Defence Strategic Review report will be handed to the government in the coming week.

A report into Australia's military is about to be handed down. Here are the five main challenges

The government will shortly receive the final report of the Defence Strategic Review of Australia's military. It has been a mammoth undertaking for its expert leads, but an even bigger task now lies ahead, writes Mick Ryan.

www.abc.net.au

At the same time Richard Marles is making it clear that the govenment is prepared to scale back certain defence projects to pay for it.

‘We don’t have limitless resources’: Australian government prepared to scale back defence projects.

The obvious target for this will be the Army's armoured vehicle program.

I have a feeling that a few of the recommendations are already being acted upon. The urgent purchase of sea mines, UUVs and fast tracking of new missile systems have all been given the go ahead. There are also rumors of a new class of corvette and perhaps additional F-35s but if the dire predictions coming from US military leaders such as General Minihan prove correct then the clock may have already run out on these projects.

A preliminary report was due in November, I think all the announcements that have been made in the last month shows that occurred.

 

[Massive]

There are also rumors of a new class of corvette

Given discussion on this forum as long as the corvette is at least 3500t then this is good news. Something equivalent to the Mogami class ideally.

Very interested to see the report.

Regards,

Massive

 

[hauritz]

Well Australia is acquiring a billion dollars worth of sea mines and will clearly need more vessels capable of laying those mines.

I imagine something quick and stealthy, low crew requirements, mostly defensive armament, proven design and cheap as chips,