The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

With Russia announcing a potential increase in the size of its army to levels not seen in over thirty years certainly the levels of equipment back in 1990 was impressive
Russia Military Size 1992-2022 | MacroTrends
Russian Military Announces Plan to Expand, Create New Units | Military.com
Soviet Army | Military Wiki | Fandom
This article citing Orynx states Russia has lost over five thousand confirmed military vehicles and over a quarter of available tanks and production of new tanks has slowed if not stopped due to sanctions
Russia Has Lost 5,000 Military Vehicles in Ukraine War: Analysis (newsweek.com)
This Orynx article from earlier details losses of equipment donated to Ukraine
How Is Russia Faring Against NATO Equipment In Ukraine? A Tally - Oryx (oryxspioenkop.com)
Russia according to this author is changing the nature of its economy to a military economy taking over from the private sector avoiding a recession with the large increase in military spending
Deeper Troubles for Russia’s Economy in 2023 - Raam op Rusland

 

[Feanor]

There are reports that Russia may be preparing a major offensive into western Ukraine from Belarus, and has massed 90 000 troops there. The goal is speculated to be to cut off the current front line from the western border. It strikes me as pretty fantastical and if true unlikely to succeed. If such troops are really available and offensives are really intended, a push on Kharkov or Zaporozhye would probably be better use of these troops. Russian sources keep stating that about ~150 000 of the mobilized personnel are in the war zone, and the rest are not. It's possible they're the forces sitting in Belarus for this offensive. Dates are speculated to be Dec 25-26th, so we're probably going to find out soon if this is happening or not.

ВС РФ могут начать наступление с территории Беларуси 25-26 декабря.

gurkhan.blogspot.com

 

[Sycarion]

Hi guys, I'm new here and this is my first ever post/question since I usually just lurk and read.

I tried to search before asking this question but I can't seem to find the answer.

Since Zelensky's recent visit to the US, ATACMS (and the US' continued refusal to giving it to Ukraine) has been a hot topic in the news again. Especially, when framed in relation to stopping russian missile strikes on the ukrainian power grid. My question is: will ATACMS even stop these strikes?

ATACMS has a 300 km range, Kalibr and other russian cruise missiles used in these strikes, especially when air launched, outrange this. I mean sure, it could be used to strike airbases within 300 km from the border and make them unusable, but couldn't Russia just move the launch platforms (bombers, fighters, etc.) further back and launch from there?

I know that ATACMS could technically be used for other purposes (like striking the Kerch bridge), but I'm more interested in how it would affect the missile strikes since a lot of media coverage is going with that angle. Thanks!

 

[tonnyc]

ATACMS can't stop long range missile strikes. Your deduction is correct. The media is often erroneous or overly simplistic, so we all have to filter the information. I don't mean that we should dismiss them outright, because sometimes they will get it right and even the wrong ones may give us insight or raw data.

ATACMS will complicate the logistical burden on the OPFOR and this may indirectly reduce the intensity and tempo of the missile strikes. After all, if Russia has to move their missile launchers back a few hundred km, that's an extra burden. And the hundred or two hundred km means extra warning time, which will allow more air defenses to get readied to intercept the missiles. But these and other effects are all indirect effects.

 

[seaspear]

I have tried to find an accurate determination of the amount of equipment Russia still has to deploy as there are wildly different assessments, ready to come out of storage ,I am referring of course to tanks armoured personnel carriers even artillery systems and what these hundreds of thousands new Russian recruits will be using

 

[Feanor]

Update. Dec 1st-4th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russia is striking Chernobaevka, Kherson region.

Colonelcassad

Второй день подряд ВС РФ долбят по объектам ВСУ в Чернобаевке. Вчера там были отличные попадания - уничтожена различная техника + были 200е и 300-е. Сегодня продолжение.

t.me

Russian strikes landed in Kherson, power outages are being reported.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️В Херсоне взрывы и мощнейший пожар, небо над городом красное от зарева В городе пропало электричество, видимо горит объект энергетики. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian soldier in Kherson complains that parts of the city are easily reached by sniper fire and 120mm mortars.

Colonelcassad

ВСУшник в Херсоне жалуется, что всё простреливается снайперами, 120-мм миномётами и артиллерией. видео: @ukr_g_m

t.me

Russian Amur military train and railroad troops scouting the tracks and repairing damage, Kherson region.

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A power transformer blew in Odessa due to overload.

Colonelcassad

В Одессе горит трансформатор вышедший из строя в результате аварии. Одно из последствий ударов по энергоструктуре. Ждем продолжения.

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

A Russian strike landing in Zaporozhye. One of the targets was a transformer factory. Note this is a series of strikes between Dec 1st and 4th.

ZERGULIO

Запорожье сегодня под утро. Пишут про прилет в инфраструктурный объект.

t.me

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Взрывы и огромный пожар в Запорожье По вражеской цели нанесен ракетный удар t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Росич | Rosich

Взрывы в Запорожье @rosich_ru

t.me

Russian Buk-M2 unit in Zaporozhye area.

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An S-300 missile booster stage, in Dnepropetrovsk area.

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The North.

Ukrainian Stormer and Stinger air defenses around Kiev.

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In Chernigov Ukraine is apparently removing some high-voltage power lines.

УКРОПСКИЙ ФРЕШ

На Украине продолжается демонтаж энергетической инфраструктуры Из Чернигова (на видео) сообщают, что местные коммунальные службы демонтируют высоковольтные линии. Также есть информация об аналогичных действиях в Житомирской и других областях.

t.me

Civilians in Kiev are being advised to dig outhouses to prevent overloading the sewers. Presumably this is due to damage from Russian strikes.

Rogandar NEWs: Новости, факты, события!

❗️Киевский режим призывает укров копать ямы и справлять нужду туда. Листовки с такой просьбой появились в жилых массивах Куёва. «Не следует ходить в туалет даже со своей водой, смывать в канализацию остатки пищи, так как система переполнится и всё полезет наружу» - написано в важном...

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Oskol Front.

Apparently Ukraine's 25th Para-assault Bde attempted to attack Russian positions east of Krasniy Liman, but failed and lost as 13 POWs.

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There are reports that Russia hit the 125th btln of the 113th Territorial Defense Bde killing 36 service members, WIAs unclear.

Colonelcassad

Харьковские волонтеры и укроСМИ вчера и сегодня говорят, что 28 ноября российская армия накрыла позиции 125 батальона 113 бригады ТрО (Харьковская область). Потери противника – 36 человек По информации от источников, подразделения 125 батальона 113 бригады ТрО дислоцированы в районе Белый...

t.me

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Russian UCAV strike on a Ukrainian checkpoint and Ukrainian vehicles near Volchansk. It's labeled Forpost but this might be a Mohajer.

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Ukrainian UAV allegedly brought down by Russian EW near Kremennaya.

Старше Эдды

Хохлолитак,посаженный нашим РЭБом в районе Кременной.

t.me

The Kupyansk-Uzlovaya rail station stands in ruins.

Colonelcassad

Состояние железнодорожной станции Купянск-Узловой.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Footage of a failed Ukrainian attack near Peski, where a mobile team consisting of 2 MBTs, a BMP-2, and a Shilka, covered by helos, attacked DNR 11th Rgt positions, but ultimately failed. We can see the BMP-2 burning.

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The same spot but filmed from a different angle, we can see the burning BMP.

Под Песками сорвана попытка украинского контрнаступления

Бойцами батальона «Сомали» на Авдеевском направлении под Песками была сорвана попытка украинского контрнаступления. При этом поддержку им оказывало подразделение «Спарта». Об этом сообщается в Telegram-канале WarGonzo и на других ресурсах военного репортера Семена Пегова. Наступление

topwar.ru

Russian tank fires in Mar'inka.

Colonelcassad

Танкисты ВС РФ выкуривают украинских боевиков из укрытий в Марьинке @tankist4

t.me

LNR 4th Bde taking out a Ukrainian BMP near Spornoe.

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Some footage of Russian troops assaulting Vodyanoe. Note, it's unclear if this is old or current. The village may or may not still be contested. Prior to this we had footage of Ukrainian positions north of Vodyanoe getting hit but it was always by UAVs.

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Some footage of continuing combat in Pervomayskoe, DNR 11th Rgt.

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Russian Su-25s near Pervomayskoe/Nevel'skoe area. Note, one effect of the Russian air war against Ukrainian power infrastructure is that many air defenses had to be pulled back from the front line to protect cities.

Военная хроника

You can view and join @milchronicles right away.

t.me

Fires burn in Kramatorsk, after Russian strikes against the industrial area of town, and against a Ukrainian munition storage.

Colonelcassad

Пожарище в Краматорске после прилетов по промзоне, где ВСУ обычно прячут технику, боеприпасы и ГСМ.

t.me

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Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Мощные взрывы в Краматорске: армия России нанесла удар по складу ракетно-артиллерийского вооружения ВСУ В промзоне детонируют вражеские боеприпасы t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Moscow calling

В Старокраматорском машиностроительном заводе детонации вовсю. Баллоны с ацитиленом, или БК ВСУ?

t.me

Some footage of Ukrainian forces in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, including a look at an HQ.

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The sound of gunfire, Opytnoe south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut remains contested.

Colonelcassad

Звуки боя в Опытном. Слышен интенсивный стрелковый бой. Сейчас Опытное - наиболее горячий участок фронта на Артемовском направлении. Видео со стороны ВСУ.

t.me

Russia lost an Su-34 near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Moscow calling

Генштаб ВСУ сообщает о сбитом в районе Бахмута Су-34 ВС РФ. По их информации, сбили самолёт украинские пограничники, вероятнее всего, с помощью ПЗРК (предположение, что у пограничников есть более серьёзные системы ПВО, слишком не вяжется с их организационно-штатной структурой). UPD Мои...

t.me

Russian 2S4 firing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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Colonelcassad

Расчет 240-мм самоходного миномета 2С4 "Тюльпан" уничтожает опорные пункты и живую силу националистов ВСУ на Артемовском направлении. источник: @WarDonbass

t.me

Footage of Artemovsk/Bakhmut from the skies. The city is slowly being reduced to rubble.

WarDonbass

Арена ожесточённых боёв - Артёмовск: окраины города превращены в руины. Кадры с украинского квадрокоптера.

t.me

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Moscow calling

Окраины Бахмута (Артёмовска) с украинского БПЛА. Среди этих руин держат оборону ВСУ, их штурмует т.н. "ЧВК "Вагнер". Для того, чтобы затем, оставив в этих руинах кучу трупов, перейти к соседним, с той или иной стороны линии фронта. В этом - суть этой войны. Иной не подвезли.

t.me

A Ukrainian T-72M after an ATGM hit, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Presumably it survived, probably due to the ERA working as intended.

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Ukrainian WIAs in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, warning graphic footage.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Штурм Артёмовска продолжается, ВСУ несут страшные потери, трупы уже никто не считает, раненых везут с фронта сотнями Кадры из Артёмовска, где для украинских оккупантов сложилась крайне тяжёлая ситуация. В интервью западными СМИ ВСУшники откровенно сообщают об огромных потерях. New York...

t.me

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Apparently a failed Ukrainian counter-attack against Wagner positions in Kudryumovka, an M113 burns. Warning footage of corpses.

Позывной Брюс

ВСУ попытались контратаковать позиции ЧВК «Вагнер» в Курдюмовке, которая была взята музыкантами 29 ноября. Личный состав и техника противника уничтожены. Контроль над населенным пунктом сохранен. #эксклюзив @brussinf

t.me

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Wagner fighters captured a knocked out M113 in Kudryumovka.

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DNR artillery fires towards Avdeevka.

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Russian infantry near Ugledar on BMP-2s, with an MBT (T-72B?), allegedly attempting an attack, when the front BMP hits a land mine. They then rapidly withdraw. Note, the tank isn't moving the entire time. Unclear why.

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Moscow calling

Угледарское направление, попытка штурма ВС РФ закончилась подрывом БМП на мине и отступлением. Обратите внимание - в критический момент БМП-2 снимавшего "глохнет", и может продолжать движение только задним ходом, что говорит либо о технической неисправности, либо о плохой подготовке и...

t.me

Shelling from Donetsk continues. HARM missiles were used, among other munitions. Warning footage of corpses.

Moscow calling

РУВД Киевского района Донецка (ул. Щорса, 79) после артналёта ВСУ.

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Moscow calling

Центр Донецка, ебейший артналёт...

t.me

Moscow calling

"Донецк - город нашей надежды!" - более неуместной надписи на автобусе, попавшего в кадры последствий обстрелов Киевского района Донецка, в результате которых погибло трое мирных жителей, сложно придумать. Никакой надежды, пока продолжается так называемая "специальная военная операция ВС РФ по...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия обстрелов жилых кварталов Донецка. После утренних обстрелов сообщалось о трех погибших и пяти раненых гражданских.

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Colonelcassad

Последствия обстрела центра Донецка. Сообщают о нескольких раненых. Повреждено несколько домов.

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

18+ Прилёт РСЗО «Град» на улицу Университетскую на перекрёстке с Таманским. 2 погибших 1 раненный

t.me

Moscow calling

Очередная украинская противорадиолокационная ракета (ПРР) AGM-88 HARM, упавшая в Донецке на ул. Глебова (Кировский район). Одни ставят ПВО в городе, другие херачат по ним ПРР, не беспокоясь, куда она может упасть. Воистину, стороны этой войны друг друга стоят...

t.me

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Colonelcassad

Кадры сегодняшнего обстрела Донецка. Повреждено несколько зданий, есть раненые.

t.me

Colonelcassad

t.me

Moscow calling

Последствия обстрела микрорайона "Азотный" в Донецке. Ранена девушка. Комментарии местного жителя вполне понятны...

t.me

Air defenses firing over Donetsk.

Война Глазами Журналиста

Работа ПВО, Мотель, Донецк

t.me

A college dormitory in Alchevsk got hit by reportedly a HIMARS strike.

Moscow calling

Последствия HIMARSировки общежития Индустриального техникума в Алчевске, ЛНР. Интересно, что сам удар по общежитию был нанесён 30 ноября (в тексте оговорка - 30 декабря), но СЦКК фиксирует последствия только спустя 4 дня.

t.me

Fuel storage in Shahtersk got hit, possibly HIMARS.

Moscow calling

HIMARSировка нефтебазы в Шахтёрске. Тревожно...

t.me

Wagner fighters near Kudryumovka and Ozaryanovka.

Moscow calling

"Вагнера" на подступах к Курдюмовке и на окраине Озаряновки - населенных пунктов, о существовании которых вы и не догадывались взятие которых является одной из целей СВО.

t.me

Wagner fighters in Zolotarevka and Verkhnekamenka, near Seversk.

Colonelcassad

Фото бойцов ЧВК "Вагнер" в Золотаревке и Верхнекаменке https://t.me/yaremshooter/455?single. Это Северское направление. Фронт там сейчас проходит у Белогоровки (частично в серой зоне) и у Верхнекаменского. Осенью противник пытался вести наступление в направлении Новодружеска и Лисичанского НПЗ...

t.me

A Ukrainian crossing near Artemovsk/Bakhmut, a knocked out BREM-1, YPR-765, and tractor.

Moscow calling

Брошенные БРЭМ-1 и YPR-765 ВСУ на переправе в районе Бахмута. На фоне общего затишья, на направлениях Бахмута российские силы продолжают наступательные операции тактического уровня, с незначительными, впрочем, результатами.

t.me

Dambiev

Потерянные в районе Артемовска (Бахмута) украинский БРЭМ-1 и БТР YPR-765.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

Russia.

Russian air defenses firing, Belgorod region.

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Belgorod region, Shebekino area, illumination rounds, possibly searching for Ukrainian infiltrators.

Moscow calling

Белгородская область, "люстра" над Шебекинским районом. Вероятно, ищут "укроДРГ". Не путаем с "зажигалками", которые раскрываются практически у земли, находясь в небе несколько секунд (против десятков секунд у "светлячков").

t.me

Mobilized VDV personnel preparing to ship to Ukraine.

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Wagner fighters training in Mol'kino.

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In Kazan mobilized personnel left their unit to visit friends and family because they were being kept in garrisons without any days out.

Moscow calling

Казанский паблик опубликовал видео с бунтом мобилизованных. Паблик, в котором появилось видео, пишет, что «мобилизованных в Казани не выпускают к родным и не дают увольнительные», и что мужчины «этим очень возмущены». На видео призывники, предположительно, покидают территорию учебной части...

t.me

Mobilized personnel shipping out from Stavropol'.

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More Russian volunteers are preparing to head to Ukraine.

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Reportedly Russia has had to upgrade the software on Pantsyrs to better engage HIMARS.

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There are unconfirmed reports of military deliveries from China to Russia.

"Мне скучно, бес... Что там белеет - говори!"

Корабль воздушный четырехмоторный, Пристать в Чкаловском готовый: На нем ПТУРСов сотни три, Две РСЗО, да бочки с «градом», Да груз богатый чипов валом… [почтиПушкин] Да, вслед за воздушным мостом из Тегерана, заработал воздушный мост из Пекина...

afirsov.livejournal.com

Misc.

Ukrainian armored car gets a grenade dropped in the roof hatch, Russian/rebel quadcopter. Location unclear.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Точно в люк: Наши бойцы поразили бронеавтомобиль ВСУ с дрона Mavic 3 Наши военные продолжают выслеживать и атаковать врага на фронте с помощью беспилотников. На видео наших товарищей показано поражение бронемашины с экипажем: на кадрах видно движение боевика в люке перед взрывом. Бойцы...

t.me

Allegedly a Russian Ka-52 getting shot down, location and context unclear.

Moscow calling

ВСУ сбили российский вертолет Ка-52, где-то на восточном направлении. Судя по видео, лётчики, к сожалению, катапультироваться не успели...

t.me

Moscow calling

Сбитый Ка-52 ВКС РФ с другого ракурса. Чем его сбили? Starstreak? Во всяком случае, трассы зенитной ракеты не было видно. Ваше мнение, эксперты?

t.me

Ukrainian 2S3 getting hit by a loitering munition. Possibly from November, location unclear.

Colonelcassad

Прилет БПЛА-камикадзе "Ланцет" по украинской 152-мм САУ "Акация". Судя по погоде - ноябрь.

t.me

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Russian munition resupply vehicle comes under fire, soldiers take cover, one moves the burning truck away. All in all they got very lucky, if the ammo had cooked off, they would have all been killed.

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Ukrainian machinegunners have a friendly fire incident in combat, due to a negligent discharge.

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Russian recon unit from the 25th Motor-rifles in action. Location, context, and exact time unclear (note the lack of snow and green grass).

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Russian Orlan-10 operations, Ukraine.

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vk.com

Ukrainian M101s firing, unclear if combat or training. Someone gets a Caesar howitzer. Someone gets a WWII-era towed gun.

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vk.com

Ukrainian Skif (Scythian) UAV downed. Note the production date, it's from 2016.

Moscow calling

Сбитый ВС РФ на востоке Украины украинский же беспилотник "Скиф". Судя по дате производства, речь идёт об опытных образцах, так как после 2016 г. производитель перепрофилировал дроны на аграрный рынок. Мобилизация БПЛА, судя по всему, произошла в начале 2022 г., уже после начала военных действий.

t.me

A captured T-90M, allegedly the second one. But again, green foliage, and a wooded area similar to what we saw the 30th Mech Bde in before. This might be the same one.

Moscow calling

Еще один новейший российский Т-90М "Прорыв" был брошен экипажем и пополнит ряды ВСУ. А ведь, чтобы экипаж не сбегал из танка, есть проверенный "дедовский" способ. Достаточно обыкновенного, советского, сварочного... (читать продолжение в источнике)

t.me

Еще один российский Т-90М "Прорыв" захвачен ВСУ в неповрежденном виде

gurkhan.blogspot.com

A Russian Pantsyr with battle damage from what appears to be small arms fire. It's an interesting reminder that it has an armored cabin.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian POWs returned. One of the recent exchanges, 50 for 50.

Colonelcassad

Наши вернулись из плена. О них не забыли. С возвращением мужики!

t.me

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vk.com

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vk.com

Ukrainian forces training, with a captured BMP-3 and multiple YPR-765s. The Right Sector flag is a nice touch.

Moscow calling

Отработка атаки ВСУ при поддержке нидерландских БТР YPR-756 (модернизация M113) и трофейной БМП-3. Как видите, зима подморозила грязь, и сделала поля вполне себе проходимыми.

t.me

A Ukrainian MT-LB/BRDM-2 hybrid.

Кстати насчет МТЛБ ВСУ

С башней от БРДМ-2 или БТР

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Russian ATGMs teams, mobilized from South MD, training somewhere in Ukraine.

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vk.com

NATO/EU.

The 7th Zuzana-2 howitzer is heading to Ukraine.

Словакия передала Украине седьмую гаубицу «Zuzana 2»

gurkhan.blogspot.com

Protests in Rome against supplying weapons to Ukraine.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️В Риме идут протесты против оружия на Украину Примерное количество участников по оценкам организаторов - 10 тысяч человек. Митингующие выходят на улицы города с флагами и жгут фаеры. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Reportedly Spain supplied Ukraine their first MIM-23 Hawks.

Испания поставила на Украину первые зенитные комплексы MIM-23 HAWK

Первые зенитные системы MIM-23 HAWK (Homing All the Way Killer) прибыли на Украину, поставку комплексов организовала Испания. Об этом сообщил министр обороны Украины Алексей Резников. Испания поставила Украине ЗРК MIM-23 HAWK, вместе с комплексами в Одессу прибыла испанский министр обороны

topwar.ru

Two more repairs PzH-2000s are coming back from Lithuania to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[swerve]

The Economist recently interviewed generals Zaluzhnyi (head of armed forces) & Syrsky (army head). Paywall, I'm afraid, but one interesting point is that they said the Russians aren't idiots, & aren't attacking out of inertia, but have a purpose, & suggested they could be trying to fix Ukrainian forces in order to ease an attack elsewhere. They think the Russians are preparing an offensive.

An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces
“Anyone who underestimates Russia is headed for defeat”

 

[Feanor]

The Economist recently interviewed generals Zaluzhnyi (head of armed forces) & Syrsky (army head). Paywall, I'm afraid, but one interesting point is that they said the Russians aren't idiots, & aren't attacking out of inertia, but have a purpose, & suggested they could be trying to fix Ukrainian forces in order to ease an attack elsewhere. They think the Russians are preparing an offensive.

An interview with General Valery Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine’s armed forces
“Anyone who underestimates Russia is headed for defeat”

There's a few things to talk about here.

1) Russia has been pushing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut for what 4-5 months now? And this entire time has been a fixing action? For what? In the time this has been going on Russia had a catastrophic retreat from Kharkov and an ordered withdrawal from Kherson, has lost Izyum and Krasniy Liman, and therefore lost the positions needed to exploit a withdrawal from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to attack Kramatorsk-Slavyansk. Russia has also given Ukraine plenty of time to build secondary defense lines at Chasoviy Yar. All of this to fix? Russia has begun and completed their mobilization all while Wagner has been pushing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

2) Russia has mobilized 300k troops, about half of which are deployed and the other half aren't yet. It's pretty obvious they're going to be used for some sort of offensive, they have to be. Fresh troops arriving on the front lines have allowed Russia to gain ground in several areas, including a push around Donetsk, through Peski, into the villages beyond, in Mar'inka gaining a few blocks at a time in this urban environment, in Pavlovka. None of these are decisive offensives, rather all appear to be opportunistic and likely a result of having the forces available. Obviously a major offensive is coming. It has to be. But if the fight at Artemovsk/Bakhmut is a fixing fight, it became that fairly recently, not as part of some clever plan.

3) Wagner is clearly fighting a private war. They broke through Ukrainian lines south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut earlier. This would have been a great time to throw reserves into the mix, threaten Chasoviy Yar or even attack it and force a withdrawal from Artemovsk/Bakhmut. But no reserves were available. Instead a few villages changed hands, and the offensive then stopped. This doesn't look like they have a bigger purpose.

I fully allow that this may end up having this effect but I don't buy the idea that this was the intent all along or part of some clever plan. It would make sense to execute in this manner now. But for the past 3+ months it's definitely been a combination of inertia and Prigozhin fighting his private war.


EDIT: It's looking like Russia is preparing its first T-14 btln. This has been my gut feeling since we first saw them getting used actively at the training ground in Kazan'. We are likely going to see some of them on the front lines though probably initially on a secondary axis like we did with the T-90Ms in Kharkov region.

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vk.com

СОЛОВЬЁВ

❗️ЭКСКЛЮЗИВ❗️ АРМАТА ИДЕТ НА ЗАПАД Первые кадры боевого слаживания экипажей танкового батальона, укомплектованного новейшими российскими танками Т-14 Армата, которое проходит на одном из полигонов. Смотрите большой материал сегодня в прямом эфире «Воскресного вечера» на телеканале Россия 1...

t.me

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vk.com

 

[ngatimozart]

There are reports that Russia may be preparing a major offensive into western Ukraine from Belarus, and has massed 90 000 troops there. The goal is speculated to be to cut off the current front line from the western border. It strikes me as pretty fantastical and if true unlikely to succeed. If such troops are really available and offensives are really intended, a push on Kharkov or Zaporozhye would probably be better use of these troops. Russian sources keep stating that about ~150 000 of the mobilized personnel are in the war zone, and the rest are not. It's possible they're the forces sitting in Belarus for this offensive. Dates are speculated to be Dec 25-26th, so we're probably going to find out soon if this is happening or not.

ВС РФ могут начать наступление с территории Беларуси 25-26 декабря.

gurkhan.blogspot.com

Yes there are reports elsewhere about a supposed Russian offensive from Belarus at some stage.

Hi guys, I'm new here and this is my first ever post/question since I usually just lurk and read.

I tried to search before asking this question but I can't seem to find the answer.

Since Zelensky's recent visit to the US, ATACMS (and the US' continued refusal to giving it to Ukraine) has been a hot topic in the news again. Especially, when framed in relation to stopping russian missile strikes on the ukrainian power grid. My question is: will ATACMS even stop these strikes?

ATACMS has a 300 km range, Kalibr and other russian cruise missiles used in these strikes, especially when air launched, outrange this. I mean sure, it could be used to strike airbases within 300 km from the border and make them unusable, but couldn't Russia just move the launch platforms (bombers, fighters, etc.) further back and launch from there?

I know that ATACMS could technically be used for other purposes (like striking the Kerch bridge), but I'm more interested in how it would affect the missile strikes since a lot of media coverage is going with that angle. Thanks!

The reason ATACMS hasn't been released to Ukraine is purely political and the reasoning given is in my opinion flawed. It appears that the White House are dead scared that providing such capabilities to Ukraine will provoke Putin, but jeez what about those dying in Ukraine from Putin's provocations. With its range ATACMS would like @tonyc has said force Russia to move it's ground based missile launchers back further from the front line.

However it would also give the Ukrainians the ability to strike at legitimate Russian logistics and military targets inside of the Russian border and it is my opinion that Ukraine should be given that ability. Is it an offensive action? I would classify it as defensive; defensive in depth and the Ukrainians are entitled to that. At present they are basically fighting with one hand tied behind their back because they don't have the tools to do unto the enemy what the enemy is doing unto them. I think it's time that the White House put its big girl panties on and faced down Putin properly by supplying Ukraine with ATACMS, tanks and aircraft; what it needs to win the war and evict Russia from its territory. It's time to cause some pain on Russian soil.

The second point is that Russia sits inside the relative safety of Belarus and attacks Ukraine. Maybe it's time that Lushenko is given a real warning and told in no uncertain terms what the price will be for him personally and for Belarus if the Russians launch another offensive from Belarussian territory. There are ways that word of such a warning could be disseminated to and amongst the Belarussian population.

 

[ngatimozart]

There's a few things to talk about here.

1) Russia has been pushing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut for what 4-5 months now? And this entire time has been a fixing action? For what? In the time this has been going on Russia had a catastrophic retreat from Kharkov and an ordered withdrawal from Kherson, has lost Izyum and Krasniy Liman, and therefore lost the positions needed to exploit a withdrawal from Artemovsk/Bakhmut to attack Kramatorsk-Slavyansk. Russia has also given Ukraine plenty of time to build secondary defense lines at Chasoviy Yar. All of this to fix? Russia has begun and completed their mobilization all while Wagner has been pushing on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

2) Russia has mobilized 300k troops, about half of which are deployed and the other half aren't yet. It's pretty obvious they're going to be used for some sort of offensive, they have to be. Fresh troops arriving on the front lines have allowed Russia to gain ground in several areas, including a push around Donetsk, through Peski, into the villages beyond, in Mar'inka gaining a few blocks at a time in this urban environment, in Pavlovka. None of these are decisive offensives, rather all appear to be opportunistic and likely a result of having the forces available. Obviously a major offensive is coming. It has to be. But if the fight at Artemovsk/Bakhmut is a fixing fight, it became that fairly recently, not as part of some clever plan.

3) Wagner is clearly fighting a private war. They broke through Ukrainian lines south of Artemovsk/Bakhmut earlier. This would have been a great time to throw reserves into the mix, threaten Chasoviy Yar or even attack it and force a withdrawal from Artemovsk/Bakhmut. But no reserves were available. Instead a few villages changed hands, and the offensive then stopped. This doesn't look like they have a bigger purpose.

I fully allow that this may end up having this effect but I don't buy the idea that this was the intent all along or part of some clever plan. It would make sense to execute in this manner now. But for the past 3+ months it's definitely been a combination of inertia and Prigozhin fighting his private war.

Wagner.
We may have to consider that Wagner is fighting two, possibly three wars:

1. The first against Ukraine.
2. The second against the Russian army.
3. The third against Prigozhin's political enemies.

The first war is self explanatory.

The second and third wars are driven by Prigozhin's political ambitions and his positioning for the post Putin era when there will be a power vacuum. Both he and Kadyrov have their own PMCs (Private Military Company's) in the field and have built up powerbases. When Putin dies or is removed there will be a vacuum because he has no known designated successor and therein lies the problem. But does Prigozhin want Putin's job or is he after something else? It is suggested that he might formally enter politics and could become Putin's successor.
What the rise of Prigozhin and Kadyrov tell us about Russia

Prigozhin bears a grudge against the military especially against Minister of Defence Shoigu who fired his Deputy Minister in 2014. This deputy Minister was responsible for Prigozhin obtaining highly lucrative defence contracts. As he and Kadyrov have gained influence in Putin's inner circle and the Russian army has performed a tad poorly, the PMCs have come to the fore appearing to be better than the military due to propaganda and in Prigozhin's case by his control of information. But this has the potential to lead to alienation of the military and provoke an internecine struggle for control within the Russian Federation, with the possible collapse of the state. And that would be a nightmare.

Russia’s new military: The rise of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group

Kremlin-linked oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the notorious Wagner Group PMC, is taking power away from the traditional Russian military establishment and fostering President Putin’s dependence on his resources and advice. This trend will undoubtedly propel the escalation of the war in...

www.mei.edu

Wagner have a very harsh discipline and infamously one of their members was executed by sledgehammer for desertion to the enemy.

Ukraine war: Wagner chief Prigozhin defends brutal killing video

Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin says a defector to Ukraine died "a dog's death for a dog".

www.bbc.com

An interesting interview with an ex Wagner mercenary who's now on their wanted list for opening his mouth about them.

Inside the Wagner Group, Russia’s mercenary force

One Wagner Group soldier for hire talks with Al Jazeera about what being a mercenary for Russia is like.

www.aljazeera.com

IF and that's a big if, Prigozhin succeeds in discrediting the Russian military in the eyes of both Putin and the Russian public, he will have created a situation where the state is in serious danger of collapse; in extremis. Who does Putin nuke then? Does Prigozhin work with Kadyrov or are they to be enemies?

And that brings us back to Bakhmut. Maybe this is the reason why Wagner are so stubborn about Bakhmut. It's not so much about victory against Ukraine but a long term plan back in Moscow. Yes they lose many men as cannon fodder, but the smart, lucky, ones who survive become stronger, experienced fighters. Napoleon knew the value of luck in a soldier or an officer. He was reputed to have said when promoting generals, yes they are very good at strategy and logistics, but are they lucky? Napoleon viewed luck as being an important factor in a general.

Next Russian offensive.
There are the claims that the Russians have fielded another 300,000 troops, however there are some issues:

1. Where did they get them from?
2. How well trained are they beyond basic entry training?
3. How are they going to equip them?
4. What era of weaponry will they be equipped with?
5. What about their logistics?
6. What are the validity of these reports?
   1. Is this some form of maskirovka?

Many questions and logically on available open source evidence it does appear that this is close to fantasy. However, it would pay to be cautious because just as the Ukrainians sprung a nasty surprise on the Russians in eastern Ukraine last September, it is possible that the Russians might be a position to return the favour elsewhere.

EDIT UPDATE.
Does Wagner have a conflict of interest that may have an important bearing upon their Ukrainian operations and more importantly, potentially the outcome of the war for Russia?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607275901405765633

 

[ngatimozart]

Sounds like the Ukrainians have hit Engels again. 3 KIA on the ground.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1607224828234469384

 

[seaspear]

Re the usage of Wagner forces ,Im not aware of any breakdown in the type of "recruits" used by Wagner but understanding that the Russian military do not count their losses because they are "private" but also that Wagner has deployed many ex-convicts to the front line as expendable it could be that the usage of regular forces in the assault on Bahkmut are because of the high casualties
Russia's infamous Wagner Group is throwing prisoners who 'have nothing to lose' on the frontlines, Ukrainian advisor says (businessinsider.nl)
Wagner intimidated recruited prisoners with execution videos, BBC reports (yahoo.com)
Certainly this article suggests high levels of Ex prisoners have died on the front line going into the thousands
Using conscripts and prison inmates, Russia doubles its forces in Ukraine - The Washington Post
I would add that Ukraine has also released prisoners with combat experience to fight in this war
Ukraine Releases Prisoners With Combat Experience To Fight In ‘Struggle For Our State’ Against Russia | The Daily Wire

 

[Dead Money]

Next Russian offensive.
There are the claims that the Russians have fielded another 300,000 troops, however there are some issues:

1. Where did they get them from?
2. How well trained are they beyond basic entry training?
3. How are they going to equip them?
4. What era of weaponry will they be equipped with?
5. What about their logistics?
6. What are the validity of these reports?
   1. Is this some form of maskirovka?

Many questions and logically on available open source evidence it does appear that this is close to fantasy. However, it would pay to be cautious because just as the Ukrainians sprung a nasty surprise on the Russians in eastern Ukraine last September, it is possible that the Russians might be a position to return the favour elsewhere.

Given the pressure on the Russian training infrastructure and the increased difficulty of training for Brigade or larger scale offensive actions, rather than the new troops participating in an offensive - would it instead make sense for the Russian Armed Forces to rotate out existing troop formations, rest and refit those as quickly as possible, and then utilise those formations - with their more established institutional knowledge, to conduct an offensive?

Rather than rely on the new formations meeting operational and logistical requirements for a major offensive, my guess was that next year we might witness new formations performing local fixing actions, while the ugly surprise comes from an attack performed by more experienced army groupings.

 

[seaspear]

A question might be on what armoured vehicles will be available to these troops ,would these troops have fifty year old tanks and ifv,s to transport and lead ? depending on the source you read Russia has either deployed nearly all of this resource in Ukraine with significant losses or has many thousands more in storage , that's without going into resourcing from Iran and North Korea everything from ballistic vests drones and artillery shells for present operations ,I can't imagine North Korea selling all of its artillery shells to Russia and relying on its nuclear capabilities
Russia scrambles to increase weapons production for Ukraine war | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
Certainly the rhetoric has ramped up
Russia Boosts Production Of Weapons For 'Most Powerful Means Of Destruction': Medvedev (ibtimes.com.au)

 

[Feanor]

Given the pressure on the Russian training infrastructure and the increased difficulty of training for Brigade or larger scale offensive actions, rather than the new troops participating in an offensive - would it instead make sense for the Russian Armed Forces to rotate out existing troop formations, rest and refit those as quickly as possible, and then utilise those formations - with their more established institutional knowledge, to conduct an offensive?

Rather than rely on the new formations meeting operational and logistical requirements for a major offensive, my guess was that next year we might witness new formations performing local fixing actions, while the ugly surprise comes from an attack performed by more experienced army groupings.

Some of both volunteer formations and mobilized personnel are going into existing units. So some of that is clearly happening.

A question might be on what armoured vehicles will be available to these troops ,would these troops have fifty year old tanks and ifv,s to transport and lead ?

Russia can put out 400-600 BTRs per year without issue. That's 13-19 btlns worth of. Russia can also put out 2 btlns of BMDs, and 4 of BMPs per year. Again these are pre-war figures, without any extra effort. This doesn't include the various armored cars (Tigr, Vystrel, etc.), the MRAPs (Typhoon and Patrul' family), and just regular armored trucks (Federal-M anyone? Or Z-STS). So quite a few will get equipment on par with Russian Army regulars, for what it's worth. As for tanks... the T-72B is from 1985, so 37 years old. But with upgrades you get a T-72B3 mod'16 or '22, i.e. a modern tank, essentially. Ditto for the T-80BVM, and T-90Ms are getting delivered regularly. So at least some of the units will get something better then "50 year old tanks and ifvs". Of course plenty will go to war with BMP-1s and T-62Ms, possibly upgraded, many not. On the other hand Ukraine has been using BMP-1s this entire time, and the T-72M is arguably not much better then a T-62M (being a downgraded export model with inferior armor and FCS).

depending on the source you read Russia has either deployed nearly all of this resource in Ukraine with significant losses or has many thousands more in storage , that's without going into resourcing from Iran and North Korea everything from ballistic vests drones and artillery shells for present operations ,I can't imagine North Korea selling all of its artillery shells to Russia and relying on its nuclear capabilities
Russia scrambles to increase weapons production for Ukraine war | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera
Certainly the rhetoric has ramped up
Russia Boosts Production Of Weapons For 'Most Powerful Means Of Destruction': Medvedev (ibtimes.com.au)

The correct answer is many thousands more in storage. The question is what condition those items are in and how quickly they can be brought online. We're still not seeing any T-72s from storage, (As or Urals) unless the T-72B3mod'22 is actually an upgraded T-72A (with or without replacing the armor fillings).

EDIT: In case anyone is wondering why I bring up armored trucks, this is what production of them looks like at a non-specialized facility in Bashkiriya. Their quantitiy realistically is only limited by the availability of welders and military-grade truck chassis.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Sycarion]

Yes there are reports elsewhere about a supposed Russian offensive from Belarus at some stage.

The reason ATACMS hasn't been released to Ukraine is purely political and the reasoning given is in my opinion flawed. It appears that the White House are dead scared that providing such capabilities to Ukraine will provoke Putin, but jeez what about those dying in Ukraine from Putin's provocations. With its range ATACMS would like @tonyc has said force Russia to move it's ground based missile launchers back further from the front line.

However it would also give the Ukrainians the ability to strike at legitimate Russian logistics and military targets inside of the Russian border and it is my opinion that Ukraine should be given that ability. Is it an offensive action? I would classify it as defensive; defensive in depth and the Ukrainians are entitled to that. At present they are basically fighting with one hand tied behind their back because they don't have the tools to do unto the enemy what the enemy is doing unto them. I think it's time that the White House put its big girl panties on and faced down Putin properly by supplying Ukraine with ATACMS, tanks and aircraft; what it needs to win the war and evict Russia from its territory. It's time to cause some pain on Russian soil.

The second point is that Russia sits inside the relative safety of Belarus and attacks Ukraine. Maybe it's time that Lushenko is given a real warning and told in no uncertain terms what the price will be for him personally and for Belarus if the Russians launch another offensive from Belarussian territory. There are ways that word of such a warning could be disseminated to and amongst the Belarussian population.

Thanks for your input! I did think of the points that you made about striking logistics and military targets both in Russia and areas in Ukraine that were previously untouchable (e.g. Crimea) with GMLRS alone. Also the effect it would have both for the missile strikes and the war in general by complicating russian logistics even further.

I was interested specifically only in the truth behind the claims made in the media and especially on sites like Reddit that ATACMS will stop the missile strikes. Thus by not giving Ukraine ATACMS, the US is letting ukrainian civilians suffer/die for its own interest (avoid further escalation with Russia). The claim didn't entirely make sense to me but I was wondering if I had missed something so I decided to ask here since I know you guys know far more than random redditors.

If I have to make a guess why the US keeps refusing ATACMS for Ukraine, it would have to be to avoid further escalation (which is purely political as you said). In the sense that the US saw that Ukraine is already successfully retaking territories (which is the main goal of both Ukraine and NATO) even without ATACMS. The US probably also knew that ATACMS won't necessarily stop the missile strikes. Plus, if Ukraine really wants to fire warning shots, it already can using the modified Tu-141s. The european partners except maybe Poland and the Baltics also probably don't want to risk any unnecessary escalation, which could affect their economy. So the US decided that it is better to just send Ukraine Patriots to defend the ukrainian power grid.

This way Ukraine (and NATO) is without a doubt the defensive side since they only operate within Ukraine. This avoids giving the anti-west crowd and russian propaganda any amunition to paint the war as the result of Ukraine and NATO's "aggression". This ensures a good guy image for Ukraine in the international stage as part of the soft power battle. Which I think is also important since this good image got Ukraine some T-72Bs from Morocco. This also ensures a united front in Europe by adressing the concerns of european partners, which is critical since EU member countries also provide a significant amount of aid to Ukraine. A united Europe is also good since it disproves russian propaganda.

Btw I agree with you that Ukraine striking legitimate logistics and military targets within Russia is still defensive. It's just not everyone thinks that way, including people in far away neutral countries where a decent chunk of their population is already western-sceptic for historical reasons like India and Indonesia. In these countries russian propaganda machines like RT are still operating freely and to some extent, this war is a struggle between the West and Russia to influence neutral countries to their side. So, I can understand if the US thinks that it is necessary that Ukraine will be seen as the good guys by as many countries as possible and that the West is supporting this good guy in their eyes.

 

[ngatimozart]

Thanks for your input! I did think of the points that you made about striking logistics and military targets both in Russia and areas in Ukraine that were previously untouchable (e.g. Crimea) with GMLRS alone. Also the effect it would have both for the missile strikes and the war in general by complicating russian logistics even further.

I was interested specifically only in the truth behind the claims made in the media and especially on sites like Reddit that ATACMS will stop the missile strikes. Thus by not giving Ukraine ATACMS, the US is letting ukrainian civilians suffer/die for its own interest (avoid further escalation with Russia). The claim didn't entirely make sense to me but I was wondering if I had missed something so I decided to ask here since I know you guys know far more than random redditors.

If I have to make a guess why the US keeps refusing ATACMS for Ukraine, it would have to be to avoid further escalation (which is purely political as you said). In the sense that the US saw that Ukraine is already successfully retaking territories (which is the main goal of both Ukraine and NATO) even without ATACMS. The US probably also knew that ATACMS won't necessarily stop the missile strikes. Plus, if Ukraine really wants to fire warning shots, it already can using the modified Tu-141s. The european partners except maybe Poland and the Baltics also probably don't want to risk any unnecessary escalation, which could affect their economy. So the US decided that it is better to just send Ukraine Patriots to defend the ukrainian power grid.

This way Ukraine (and NATO) is without a doubt the defensive side since they only operate within Ukraine. This avoids giving the anti-west crowd and russian propaganda any amunition to paint the war as the result of Ukraine and NATO's "aggression". This ensures a good guy image for Ukraine in the international stage as part of the soft power battle. Which I think is also important since this good image got Ukraine some T-72Bs from Morocco. This also ensures a united front in Europe by adressing the concerns of european partners, which is critical since EU member countries also provide a significant amount of aid to Ukraine. A united Europe is also good since it disproves russian propaganda.

Btw I agree with you that Ukraine striking legitimate logistics and military targets within Russia is still defensive. It's just not everyone thinks that way, including people in far away neutral countries where a decent chunk of their population is already western-sceptic for historical reasons like India and Indonesia. In these countries russian propaganda machines like RT are still operating freely and to some extent, this war is a struggle between the West and Russia to influence neutral countries to their side. So, I can understand if the US thinks that it is necessary that Ukraine will be seen as the good guys by as many countries as possible and that the West is supporting this good guy in their eyes.

No probs. ATACMS wouldn't be able to reach Engels from anywhere in Ukraine so it isn't going to be a threat to that base. Engels would have to be a high priority target for Ukraine and to reach there they require a SRBM - MRBM, or some LACM which they don't currently have. Whilst their UAVs have reached Engels, penetrating the base air defence and done damage, it would not be advisable to presume that SRBM, MRBM, or LACM would be able to so easily penetrate the regional Air Defence System. That AD system is most likely an IADS and it's been designed to protect against missile and manned aircraft attacking the bomber bases at Engels. So it's scanning for telephone pole sized and larger go fast air vehicles, whereas the UAVs that Ukraine have been using, probably are smaller and a lot slower, so probably don't register on the search and fire control radars.

The media around the western world are still talking up the possibility of a second Russian attack against Kyiv, being launched out of Belarussian territory. If this does come to pass it raises interesting questions and one would be a big what if. What if Putin has finally managed to get Lushenko to agree to Belarus participating fully in the war? The Belarussian forces would be well trained and fresh, lead by probably quite competent generals who will have definitely taken note of the Russian failures and mistakes, along with the Ukrainian successes. The Belarussian involvement as a combatant in the war would create real problems for Ukraine, but every cloud has a silver lining. At least they would finally be able to go after Russian forces and logistics targets inside Belarus. BUT, the big question is whether or not the Belarussian military would be willing to participate in the war as a combatant on the Russian side? Then there is the Belarussian population and Lushenko isn't exactly universally adored by his subjects. If the population decides that Lushenko has taken a step to far, will they let it lie? If they, don't where will the military sit? Will they side with the people or Lushenko?

IF Lushenko caves into Putin and agrees that Belarus will enter the war as a combatant, AND the military refuse AND the people back the military what happens next? IF the Russians were not in Belarus in force, I would suggest that Lushenko would be on a plane to Moscow with part of the Treasury in the hold, giving Putin another headache. However with Russian forces there in strength, Putin may decide just to attempt to overthrow the new Belarusian govt and military, returning Lushenko to power with the backing of Russian armour and guns. But this time Belarus will be a Russian Oblast in all but name, because it will be occupied by Russian forces with the FSB subordinating the Belarussian KGB and suppressing the local population and remnants of the Belarussian military.

Then again Putin might not be in a position to do that because his forces maybe busy defending themselves and can't be reinforced. That has to be one of his worst nightmares; a turncoat Belarus and fighting a war within Belarus against the Belarus military and local population. If the Ukrainians decided to cross the border to help evict the Russians from Belarus and show solidarity with the new Belarus govt, then that has to be a large part of Putin's goose cooked. That would for all intents and purposes be equivalent to a to front war and Putin doesn't really have the capabilities to fight a two front war.

So what's a Putin to do? I suppose that we'll have to wait and see.

 

[Feanor]

No probs. ATACMS wouldn't be able to reach Engels from anywhere in Ukraine so it isn't going to be a threat to that base. Engels would have to be a high priority target for Ukraine and to reach there they require a SRBM - MRBM, or some LACM which they don't currently have. Whilst their UAVs have reached Engels, penetrating the base air defence and done damage, it would not be advisable to presume that SRBM, MRBM, or LACM would be able to so easily penetrate the regional Air Defence System. That AD system is most likely an IADS and it's been designed to protect against missile and manned aircraft attacking the bomber bases at Engels. So it's scanning for telephone pole sized and larger go fast air vehicles, whereas the UAVs that Ukraine have been using, probably are smaller and a lot slower, so probably don't register on the search and fire control radars.

A Tu-141 is an LACM but with the warhead replaced. Un-replace the warhead and you're home free.

The media around the western world are still talking up the possibility of a second Russian attack against Kyiv, being launched out of Belarussian territory. If this does come to pass it raises interesting questions and one would be a big what if. What if Putin has finally managed to get Lushenko to agree to Belarus participating fully in the war? The Belarussian forces would be well trained and fresh, lead by probably quite competent generals who will have definitely taken note of the Russian failures and mistakes, along with the Ukrainian successes.

Are you sure about this? From what I've read, in joint exercises the Belorussians looked rather poor compared to Russian forces. And the Belarussian army is tiny.

The Belarussian involvement as a combatant in the war would create real problems for Ukraine, but every cloud has a silver lining. At least they would finally be able to go after Russian forces and logistics targets inside Belarus. BUT, the big question is whether or not the Belarussian military would be willing to participate in the war as a combatant on the Russian side? Then there is the Belarussian population and Lushenko isn't exactly universally adored by his subjects. If the population decides that Lushenko has taken a step to far, will they let it lie? If they, don't where will the military sit? Will they side with the people or Lushenko?

This sounds like a good reason for Belarus not to get involved. Apart from the fact that they don't bring all that much to the table.