The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[seaspear]

This is just a speculation from me but in regards to recent angst between founder of Wagner and Chechen leadership in their criticism of Russian defence minister and some generals ,its been interesting to note the aggressive attack on Bakhmut by Wagner units and some Chechen forces there compared to the slow erosion of Russian forces in Kherson , If Kherson falls to Ukraine and Bakhmut falls to Wagner forces this could possibly lead to political change in Moscow
Vladimir Putin's defence chief Shoigu could be ousted in Kremlin coup from Wagner leader | World | News | Express.co.uk

 

[ngatimozart]

Talking of “sources”, I’d be interested to know what sources are considered reasonably reliable.
I have checked Al Jazeera on occasion, on the grounds that they are mot generally thought to be pro-western.

Normally we say that RT, Pravda, TASS, Fox News, Global News, and Xinhua are not acceptable. At present we have added the rider that all Ukrainian as well Russian sources are unreliable and to be treated with caution because of propaganda and misinformation. Al Jazeera is regarded as a reliable source and WRT the Russo Ukrainian War more reliable than most.

 

[ngatimozart]

The thing that concerns me almost as much as Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons is how western governments are downplaying that threat ... at least in public. Even in this forum I notice that a lot of posters are dismissive of his threats.

The consistent line that Putin is a rational human being, who made a bad decision and will eventually back down is an assumption about his character that I don't necessarily share.

Putin won't back down; C/REF my post above. He doesn't negotiate and he has far to much politically and personally invested in this invasion

unless he is suicidal, that would not happen. Question is, is he willing to go that far. My bet is no, but you will see, I guess.

Art

See my post above about Putin being a psychopath. If Browder is right we've all been assessing Putin wrongly.

The Russians have been launching Bastion P to launch P-800 Onik cruise missiles from Sevastopol in the last 24 hours. They have a range of 300km and map below is a range ring giving the range as ~250nm (463km). In this case I would take H I Sutton's data as being the more accurate.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1581305618836488192

Material on the Bastion P & P-800 Onik

Russia’s coastal defence systems: supporting limited naval capabilities

Home to a large and unmanageable coastline and a navy that is relatively limited in its capabilities, Russia relies on an array of coastal defence missiles.

www.naval-technology.com

 

[sdin]

Both of those sources are fine. The Austrian Army Colonel is very good actually. "It was generally acknowledged that the Russias practiced war of attrition and gaining ground little by little to avoid heavy casualties," Who says that? How about a source for that? In this war there's been a tad large difference between the long standard VDV strategies and planning requirements and the actual practice on the battlefield.

There were to many reports and writeup on Russian war of attritions, you can just google and will find many.

This in two reference by western media :

The Russia-Ukraine conflict: A war of attrition

The Russia-Ukraine conflict: A war of attrition

www.orfonline.org

Quote : The war has now entered a phase where Russia’s main goal is to reduce Ukraine’s resources—weaken the economy and the army and destroy the infrastructure. The Russian Army also combines intensive battles along the front line, shelling cities, villages, and infrastructure that are outside the limits of military operations

Ukraine is fighting a war of attrition. Only Nato can help change that | Jack Watling

Western allies have the power to help extricate the country from the unfavourable conditions it is facing against Russia

www.theguardian.com

Since last few days there were many UA counter offensive in Kherson and thwarted many times by the Russian. The lost of lives and equipments were heavy.

The following video by a neutral content creator summarised it all .

The following is the interview with a foreign volunteer about huge loses in their counter offensive.

 

[Exonian]

While it is no doubt the case that Ukraine will have taken some heavy casualties in the counter-offensive north of Kherson it is not always the case that the advancing force is doing all the attacking. Once Ukraine had established the bridgehead over the Inhulets it became a potential major threat to the whole Russian position. Since then Russia has been attacking there to try to eliminate the bridgehead, which will have caused them casualties, not all replaceable due to the strikes on the Dneiper river crossings. The fact Russian forces were only able to contain the bridghead rather than eliminate it indicates to me that they are not currently able to mount a major offensive operation west of the Dneiper.

 

[Aerojoe]

Please excuse me in advance if this is a stupid question, but can someone explain the significance of Bakhmat for RU forces? I assume there must be significance given the human and material resources devoted in recent months but I haven’t been able to find a simple explanation on the web.

 

[swerve]

Yes.

But it's the nearest thing to an unpopulated area. There are some sparsely populated rural areas, but nowhere else which is really unpopulated.

 

[Feanor]

Please excuse me in advance if this is a stupid question, but can someone explain the significance of Bakhmat for RU forces? I assume there must be significance given the human and material resources devoted in recent months but I haven’t been able to find a simple explanation on the web.

Are the resources dedicated there all that great? Or is that simply one of the few areas where Russia is still gaining ground? Before the Ukrainian counter-offensive, after the fall of Severodonetsk-Lisichansk, the next line Ukrainian forces were holding was Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut. If that line falls, then Slavyansk-Kramatorsk are next. Russia has declared they intend to clear the entire LDNR area, so this is a logical progression.

 

[vikingatespam]

Please excuse me in advance if this is a stupid question, but can someone explain the significance of Bakhmat for RU forces? I assume there must be significance given the human and material resources devoted in recent months but I haven’t been able to find a simple explanation on the web.

Putin told his generals to capture it whatever the cost ? As far as I can tell, it doesnt serve particular military function for UKR at this time other than denying to to RU.

 

[Feanor]

This is apparently a video of a night time Shahed-136 strike. Not sure if its a lancet or a Shahed. But if it is a Shahed the heat signature is really low for a drone thats relatively big. Explains why they are so hard to shootdown with GBAD.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/y514m3
Here is a video of a lanccet taking out two S 300 launch vehicles. Unlike most other posts on combat footage this one did not have a date or was geolocated. @Feanor can you tell if this one was new or from earlier in the war?

I'm pretty sure it's very recent. It just showed up on multiple platforms. Russia has recently had an injections of Lancet loitering munitions, and has been putting out videos of their use.

 

[Feanor]

Update. Oct 3rd-6th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa-Krivoy Rog.

We can see Ukrainian infantry (allegedly SOF) investigating a knocked out Russian guntruck, and then a Ukrainian Humvee getting hit, allegedly Kherson region. 1st link has the whole video.

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Telegram: Contact @greatrussia1

t.me

Ukrainian troops under fire, Kherson region. We see pickup truck, a jeep, and a BTR-70. A BTR-70 apparently gets taken out.

Милитарист

Подбитый и уничтоженный под Херсоном БТР-70. По нашей информации, 50 этих машин были получены из Северной Македонии и переданы в Херсонскую группировку

t.me

Ukrainian forces getting hit, and a CASEVAC, allegedly Kherson region.

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Ukrainian air defenses trying to down a Shahed-136 over Odessa.

Военный Осведомитель

В Одессе украинская зенитная ПВО пытается сбить БПЛА-камикадзе «Герань-2». К слову, ближе к концу видео слышно, что украинская ПВО прекратила стрельбу, в то время как беспилотник летит дальше. Украинская противовоздушная оборона снова не справляется с иранскими дронами. @milinfolive

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Shahed-136 strikes hit a Ukrainian HQ in Odessa.

WarDonbass

4 взрыва в центре Одессы Уничтожен Штаб оперативного командования ЮГ националистов ВСУ (бывший штаб Одесского военного округа) на ул. Пирогова. Прямое попадание от иранских БПЛА «Герань-2».

t.me

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Allegedly a Ukrainian SpN team taken out in Kherson region. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

Российские десантники уничтожили отряд спецназа ВСУ в Херсонской области. Z.Soldier of Fortune.V Подписаться

t.me

Destroyed Ukrainian vehicles, Kherson region; (1st link) 6 Ukrainian BTRs destroyed, 5 70's and 1 80, (2-3rd links)1 Kipri MRAP, T-80BV (or is it a T-72M1? hard to tell from that angle) knocked out and captured (4-6th), and Husky TSV knocked out (7th link).

Dambiev

Пять уничтоженных украинских БТР-70 и один БТР-80 на Херсонском направлении.

t.me

ANNA NEWS

Турецкий бронеавтомобиль уничтожен под Херсоном Броневк Kirpi морской пехоты ВМСУ был подбит десантника и 76-й дивизии ВДВ. Фото: komdiv76 @anna_news

t.me

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Дал Дал Взлетел

You can view and join @lostarmour right away.

t.me

Милитарист

Уничтоженные на Херсонском направлении танк Т-72М1 польской поставки, «техничка» и защищенный автомобиль Kirpi из состава группировки ВСУ

t.me

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A Kipri MRAP captured by Russian soldiers somewhere on the Nikolaev-Kherson axis.

Colonelcassad

Трофейный турецкий бронеавтомобиль "Кирпи". Николаевское направление.

t.me

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Hotels in Kherson and the Antonov bridge are getting hit again.

Zаписки мичмана Птичкина

ВСУ продолжают целенаправленно обстреливать гостиницы Херсона Сегодня обстреляна "Нинель" на ул. Белинского. Это уже третий по счёту херсонский отель, разрушенный украинскими военными преступниками. Цель обстрелов очевидна — русские спецы, приехавшие восстанавливать город. А также журналисты.

t.me

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Ukrainian buggy with a Zastava M53 machinegun, Kherson region.

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Shahed-136 fragments, Nikolaev.

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Ukrainian military vehicle repair in Krivoy Rog.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Reportedly Energodar is getting hit again.

Повёрнутые на войне

Вооруженные силы Украины усилили огонь по пригороду Энергодара, под ударом оказался район ТЭС, сообщили в военно-гражданской администрации города.

t.me

Strikes on Nikopol' continue as well.

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Battle damage to the Zaporozhskaya NPP.

Colonelcassad

Повреждения на Запорожской АЭС после вчерашнего украинского обстрела. Фото опубликовал председатель движения «Мы вместе с Россией» Владимир Рогов. @rt_russian

t.me

Russian strikes including Shahed-136 in Zaporozhye region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Иранский БПЛА-камикадзе «Шахид-136»/«Герань-2» поразил объект противника в Запорожье Информация уточняется. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Iskander-M missile fragments, Zaporozhye.

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The North.

Russian Shahed-136 strikes in Kiev and Belaya Tserkov'. In Belaya Tserkov' the base of the 72nd Mech Bde was apparently targeted.

Повёрнутые на войне

Гераньки под Киевом.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Местные источники сообщают об ударах дронов-камикадзе «Герань-2» (Shahed-136) по объектам ВСУ в Белой Церкви в Киевской области. Несколько БЛА также были замечены в Одессе, по ним работают средства ПВО. По предварительным данным, один из дронов был сбит над селом Рыбаковка. Источник: @rybar

t.me

Dambiev

Последствия ночного прилета "Гераней" по раположению 72-й отдельной механизированной бригады ВСУ в Белой Церкви Киевской области.

t.me

The 72nd Mech Bde burns after Shahed-136 strikes.

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Battle damage to the 72nd Mech Bde facilities.

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Oskol Front.

An interesting video of Ukrainian forces attempting to use a small mobile infantry team to gain ground, but get spotted and fail. This then leads to a Russian/rebel counter-attack from Chechen and Dag fighters and the LNR 4th Bde with BMP support. We see two Ukrainian soldiers surrender, the counter attack then develops with MBT support. Note the scale of the fighting. We have platoon and squad sized elements, tanks and armored vehicles roll around as singles and pairs.

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Russian strikes in Kharkov have apparently again taken out power in the city.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Нанесён удар по критической инфраструктуре врага в Харькове, в ряде районов города пропал свет t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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A power grid substation and fuel storage facility destroyed, Kharkov.

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Настоящий полкоVник|Z|Виталий Киселев

Украинская "ПВО" в виде топливохранилища успешно поразила наш "шахид-герань" в Харьковской области

t.me

A destroyed Ukrainian Novator armored car and M-113, in Krasniy Liman.

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Центр Рубеж

М113 националистов ВСУ уничтоженный на въезде в Красный Лиман.

t.me

Ukrainian BTR-4 hit an anti-tank mine in Kharkov region.

Дал Дал Взлетел

You can view and join @lostarmour right away.

t.me

 

[Feanor]

LDNR Front.

DNR fighters firing an ATGM at an alleged Ukrainian position.

Народная милиция ДНР

Бойцы 3 бригады уничтожили опорный пункт противника с помощью ПТУР Военнослужащие 3 бригады НМ ДНР обнаружили и уничтожили опорный пункт украинских боевиков. Благодаря слаженной работе оператора БПЛА и расчета ПТУР, цель была поражена. Враг понес потери убитыми и ранеными. Подписывайтесь на...

t.me

DNR SpN taking out a Ukrainian fuel truck with an ATGM.

Репортёр Руденко V

Спецназ ДНР с помощью ПТУРа уничтожают бензовоз врага. Акция довольно таки дерзкая, для её проведения пришлось зайти в тыл врага.

t.me

Kaskad btln, DNR area, drops munitions on a Ukrainian BMP and T-64BV. The BMP is destroyed, the MBT hit but I suspect it survives.

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LNR 4th Bde BMP-1 is knocked out, another BMP-1 rolls out, firing, and picks up the crew/dismounts.

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Apparently Ukrainian MBT hits a land mine, and the BMP following it appears to withdraw but hits another land mine.

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Shelling of Donetsk continues including land mines. Warning footage of corpses.

Осташко! Важное

ВСУ сбросили «лепестки» на Донецк Укронацисты обрушили на Донецк 15 снарядов калибра 155-мм. «Источники» обстрела определены в Первомайском, Красногоровке и Нетайлово. Две ракеты из РСЗО БМ-27 «Ураган», начиненные противопехотными минами «лепесток», ударили по Петровскому району. Осташко...

t.me

Colonelcassad

«Все трамваи разбитые, в аптеке крыша полетела... У меня аж багажник открылся. Короче, треш». Видео первых минут после прилёта по торговому центру «Континент» в Донецке. Стреляли из РСЗО HIMARS. Одна из украинских ракет упала в районе ТЦ Green Plaza (он находится рядом с «Континентом»), другая...

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

Один день военного Донецка. Все фото сегодняшние, 3.10.2022 1-3 фото - последствия обстрела Петровского района, посёлок шахты Абакумова 4-5 - последствия обстрела посёлка Старомихайловка, сразу за Петровским районом Донецка. 6-8 - последствия обстрела Куйбышевского района

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

18+ 2 часа назад в результате обстрела Кировского района Донецка погибла женщина.

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

18+ В результате обстрела ДК им. Е.Т. Абакумова в Донецке погибли мужчина и женщина

t.me

Война Глазами Журналиста

Последствия обстрела Макеевки сегодня днём

t.me

Russian strikes near Ugledar.

Украина.ру

Эшелоны с техникой идут в сторону Крыма нескончаемым потоком

t.me

Russian Giatsint-B UAV directed strikes near Soledar.

Kotsnews

Позитива, говорите, надо? Работает доблестная артиллерия 2 АК ЛНР совместно с русским спецназом. Корректировка орудий «Гиацинт-Б» ведется с беспилотника Zala, который чихать хотел на противодействие РЭБ противника. Соледарское направление. Тот случай, когда взаимодействие выстроено между...

t.me

A dormitory in Artemovsk/Bakhmut that was allegedly housing Ukrainian soldiers was destroyed in a recent strike.

Осташко! Важное

Казарма ВСУ в Артемовске была уничтожена Так называемая «общага на Канале», заполненная укронацистами, была уничтожена высокоточным ракетным ударом. Минобороны РФ сообщило, что более 260 нацистов похоронены под завалами. Осташко! Важное - подпишись

t.me

Ukrainian soldiers leaving the Artemovsk/Bakhmut front line, complaining about lack of supplies and comms.

Военкор Котенок

"Выходим из центра ада" — украинские боевики жалуются на тяжелейшую ситуацию в Бахмуте (Артёмовске), на который наступают штурмовые подразделения "Группы Вагнера". @voenkorKotenok

t.me

Russian reservists training at a training ground in LNR and DNR area, note the T-64 (B?) with added K-1 tiles. It's clearly not a BV.

Colonelcassad

Боевое слаживание, как элемент тактико-специальной подготовки, идёт без остановки на полигонах ЛНР 03.10.2022 #СВО #ЛНР Подписаться | DenZkul

t.me

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Russian reservists training with a BRDM-2MS somewhere in rebel areas. Note we've seen the BRDM-2MS at the 103rd Armored Repair plant. Despite featuring a decent improvement to the situational awareness, it retains the critical weakness of armament; a Soviet-style cone turret with only one box of HMG ammo ready to fire.

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The LNR has received at least one BMP-1AM.

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LNR Giatsint-B with a worn out barrel. Much has been said about the wear and tear on western artillery supplied to Ukraine, but little has been discussed about similar issues faced by Russian units.

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Russia.

Russia allegedly intercepted 4 Ukrainian inbound missiles over Belgorod region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг пытался нанести удар по Белгородчине, силы ПВО сбили 4 ракеты над селом Казинка Валуйского округа. Жертв и разрушений нет Об этом сообщил оперативный штаб Белгородской области. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian mobilized personnel training in Nizhniy Novgorod region.

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Russian vehicles heading to Crimea. Note the BTS ARVs.

Украина.ру

Эшелоны с техникой идут в сторону Крыма нескончаемым потоком

t.me

Mobilized reservists training in Rostov (1st), Tatarstan (2nd), Krasnodar (3rd-8th links) and Stavropol'ye (9th)regions.

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Военный Осведомитель

Занятия с мобилизованными гражданами на 243-м общевойсковом полигоне ЮВО в Молькино, Краснодарский край. И снова от региона к региону виден контраст в плане обеспечения мобилизованных вооружением (и в целом подготовки). Так в Молькино вчерашние гражданские получили в свое распоряжение пулеметы...

t.me

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Wagner fighters undergoing training. The organizations appears to be expanding.

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Reportedly in Khabarovsk region, half of all called up personnel had to be sent home because they were called up in error.

Хабаровский край: *Половину* прибывших по повесткам мы вернули домой, военком уволен (alexsword)

Военный комиссар Хабаровского края Юрий Лайко отстранен от должности, сообщил глава региона Михаил Дегтярев.

aftershock.news

Motovilikha reportedly has hit a 10 year record in production of MLRS.

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A new UAV operator training center has begun functioning in Russia. It will allegedly draw on UAV experience from rebel formations.

РЦБС

t.me

Training of mobilized personnel, South MD.

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vk.com

Russia has started it's first prosecution of a mobilization draft dodger.

В России возбудили первое дело в отношении уклониста от мобилизации

Статья 328 "Уклонение от призыва на военную службу" предусматривает наказание до двух лет колонии

tass.ru

Misc.

Downed Ukrainian Mi-24P, somewhere in the Donbass.

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It appears Ukraine fished out the Mojaher-6 Russia managed to "land" in the Black Sea.

ImpNavigator

Насколько можно судить, по появившимся c украинской стороны фотографиям, они все-таки вытянули из воды тот упавший в Черное море БПЛА Mohajer-6 иранского производства, видео с которым в воде ранее появлялось. На подвеске видно одну неиспользованную управляемую бомбу Ghaem-5.

t.me

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A new Russian directional anti-infantry landmine has been spotted in Ukraine.

На фронте засветилась новейшая российская противопехотная мина направленного действия МОБ.

gurkhan.blogspot.com

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The export version T-90S that was seen being prepared, is now apparently in Ukraine. It's unclear whether we're talking about a significant quantity, or just the one tank.

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NATO/EU.

Czech T-72M1s getting ready to be shipped to Ukraine.

Чешские танки Т-72М1 во время подготовки к отправке на Украину.

gurkhan.blogspot.com

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vk.com

A Bulgarian Su-25 crashed recently. It suggests that they haven't all been handed over to Ukraine.

Разбился болгарский Су-25

28 сентября - пилот катапультировался. По мнению "западных обозревателей" это подтверждает, что болгарские Су-25 Украине не передавались. Еще...

afirsov.livejournal.com

French Bastion APCs may be heading to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Bulgaria has had an explosion at the Arsenal factory that supplies weapons to Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian troops training on Mastiff MRAPs in the UK.

БелВПО

Бандеропитеки проходят обучение в Великобритании на бронемобиле Wolfhound Wolfhound – тяжелый бронированный грузовик. Используется для сопровождения патрулей, перевозки боеприпасов и необходимых грузов. Wolfhound создан на базе бронеавтомобиля Mastiff, являющегося, в свою очередь, версией...

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

Some thoughts on Russia's mobilization. We see some footage of Russian mobilized personnel doing what looks like relevant training with mostly modern equipment and gear. However we know they're short on uniforms and gear. I suspect there's quite a few mobilized personnel that are sitting on their hands while others go through the training pipeline. I also have to note that the training is all individual for soldiers, and single vehicle for vehicle crews. We don't see any squad or platoon level exercises, nevermind company of btln level. We also don't see any training that integrates infantry and armor, or infantry and artillery. Either these reservists are still quite some ways away from hitting the front line, or Russia isn't training them adequately. Compare this to training footage we've gotten from Ukrainian forces in the UK.

 

[ngatimozart]

There were to many reports and writeup on Russian war of attritions, you can just google and will find many.

This in two reference by western media :

The Russia-Ukraine conflict: A war of attrition

The Russia-Ukraine conflict: A war of attrition

www.orfonline.org

Quote : The war has now entered a phase where Russia’s main goal is to reduce Ukraine’s resources—weaken the economy and the army and destroy the infrastructure. The Russian Army also combines intensive battles along the front line, shelling cities, villages, and infrastructure that are outside the limits of military operations

Ukraine is fighting a war of attrition. Only Nato can help change that | Jack Watling

Western allies have the power to help extricate the country from the unfavourable conditions it is facing against Russia

www.theguardian.com

Since last few days there were many UA counter offensive in Kherson and thwarted many times by the Russian. The lost of lives and equipments were heavy.

The following video by a neutral content creator summarised it all .

The following is the interview with a foreign volunteer about huge loses in their counter offensive.

It's not up to other members to google references, sources etc. the original poster, in this case YOU, is required to do so, unless it's widely accepted common knowledge.

If you want to play games with a Moderator that's fine but this Moderator doesn't play games unless forced to. If I have to play games I don't take prisoners.

 

[wsb05]

It's not up to other members to google references, sources etc. the original poster, in this case YOU, is required to do so, unless it's widely accepted common knowledge.

If you want to play games with a Moderator that's fine but this Moderator doesn't play games unless forced to. If I have to play games I don't take prisoners.

It seems that Russia is seeking to outlast Ukraine and NATO in the fight:
1- Harass and make life uncomfortable for Ukrainian citizens through bombardment of infrastructure in all regions of Ukraine. They bet that the economy will seize to function properly. Young people will seek to immigrate for better life prospects and the remaining population will be fatigued.
2- Is trying to do this on the cheap, through the use of inexpensive Iranian munitions and soviet era weapons on the front lines.
3- The end objective would probably be convincing the Ukrainians that there is no other solution but a negotiated end of hostilities.

One of the downsides of this strategy is the large number of unemployed males who will either seek revenge or have no other job opportunity besides joining the military.

Without
1- Major battlefield wins that would convince first and foremost the Ukrainians of the futility of carrying on with the fight,
2- A convincing propaganda campaign explaining the reasons for the war and the advantages of peace.

such a strategy may not bring the desired effects.

 

[Cooch]

It is always a temptation to an armed and agile nation
To call upon a neighbour and to say:--
"We invaded you last night--we are quite prepared to fight,
Unless you pay us cash to go away."

And that is called asking for Dane-geld,
And the people who ask it explain
That you've only to pay 'em the Dane-geld
And then you'll get rid of the Dane!

It is always a temptation for a reach and lazy nation,
To puff and look important and to say:--
"Though we know we should defeat you, we have not the
time to meet you.
We will therefore pay you cash to go away."

And that is called paying the Dane-geld;
But we've proved it again and again,
That if once you have paid him the Dane-geld
You never get rid of the Dane.

It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say:--

"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that plays it is lost!"

Rudyard Kipling.
He knew his history. Cash or land, there is little difference

 

[STURM]

Shahed-136 strikes hit a Ukrainian HQ in Odessa.

Makes me wonder if Russia actually obtained any Shaheds before the invasion. It seems to have lots of them.

Anyway thank you for the updates. It's interesting to get more info on the Russian side of things.

 

[tom_damage]

Makes me wonder if Russia actually obtained any Shaheds before the invasion. It seems to have lots of them.

I believe manufacturing these Shaheds is fairly easy and cheap.
No need to have any bi-directional comms on them (one way ticket to GPS location), no need to have landing gear.
It's a single-use, focused tool.

Looking at how Kiev was hit this morning, the AA systems the currently have seem to have no real effect. Probably the only way to reliably defend against them would be some directional EW (and/or energy weapon) to bake the minimal electronics they have.

 

[STURM]

I believe manufacturing these Shaheds is fairly easy and cheap.

If that's the case and if it's true that a lot of components used in their manufacture are easy to source off the shelf commercial items then Russia should have no issues manufacturing them. If Russia is unable to manufacture them due to difficulties in sourcing components; Iran and Russia I'm sure would be able to supply the needed components. Interestingly although Shahed has been used in Yemen in the past; it's use wasn't as extensive as one would assume. Perhaps during that period it wasn't available in large numbers.

the AA systems the currently have seem to have no real effect.

We saw this in Nargano Karabakh when Armenian systems which were optimised for larger targets; which also produced more IR emissions; were inadequate against Harpy and TB2s. We saw the same in Libya; certain AD systems underperforming against small unmanned platforms.
It's for the same reason that the Russians had difficulties countering Switchblade.

Probably the only way to reliably defend against them would be some directional EW (and/or energy weapon) to bake the minimal electronics they have.

I would think that in addition to lasers which the Americans will fit to the AD Stryker variant [it has an auto cannon; Stinger, Hellfire and AESA radars]; other stuff like alerting devices; jammers; auto cannons and other things are needed. We saw how in 2019 when Patriot and other AD systems at the two ARAMCO facilities which were hit failed to detect the swarm of mini UASs.

On another issue this is an interesting sobered take on the current situation.

Putin, Ukraine, and NATO | Small Wars Journal

On 24th February 2022 Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine that Putin described as a ‘special military operation’. It has been promoted that one of the reasons behind the wider Ukraine conflict and this particular invasion is due to Putin wanting to absorb old Soviet Bloc countries back into...

smallwarsjournal.com

''As a land power Russia’s vulnerability is its closeness to Europe and the flat expanse of land belonging to the North European Plain that divides the two is susceptible to invasion. Historically Russia has always relied on this huge land mass to act as a buffer zone between its enemies and any encroachment on this is taken very seriously by Moscow. To put this into context prior to the expansion of NATO Moscow sat behind a 1,000-mile buffer zone, this has now been reduced to just 200 miles. ''

''Nation states like Ukraine should be free to join whatever political alliance they want to, but if Russia has a genuine security concern then this should be recognised and taken into consideration. Is there corruption in Ukraine, undoubtably yes, but probably no more or no less than any other average country in Eastern Europe. Are there elements of Nazism present in Ukraine, again regrettably yes. However, these issues are domestic criminal matters to be resolved by Ukraine internally, they do not give Putin ‘jus ad bellum’ (justice in war/the right to go to war) and to allow his nation state to use military force against another nation state''

''So, by invading Ukraine Putin is applying the principles of realism and neorealism towards Russia’s national security policy as he feels that the use of military force is the best option open to him in order to safeguard Russia’s security from the perceived threat of NATO. Neorealism theory believes that conflict, competition, and limited cooperation are key features between nation states. This is clearly evidenced by the military action and power politics implemented by Putin resulting in the consequences of war and the limited dialogue offered to Ukraine and other members of the international community in order to resolve this ''

 

[relic88]

Going back a few years and I can remember those days Prime minister Thatcher stood up to the Soviets
Margaret Thatcher on Anglo-Soviet relations (1979) (alphahistory.com)
Thatcher and the Soviet Union: The Iron Lady who helped bring down the ‘Evil Empire’ — RT
I have memories of being in Austria in 1980 of being told if hostilities started the tanks could be there in half an hour this was the fear factor back then , this article shows the then Soviet readiness for deployment
1987-09-01.pdf (cia.gov)

Same. Spent my childhood less than 50 miles from the Fulda Gap (as I was told by my father) and that our location would be among the first to be under attack. I remember AFN commercials in those days that specifically instructed family member of soldiers about OPSEC and other to do/ not to do things.