Post 3 of 5: Yes we can
13. That’s why war planners study the terrain, study enemy dispositions, anticipate the enemy courses of action, use deception, and set limits of advance for own forces — to ensure that you don’t over run your own logistics capability — so as to increase the chance of success.
14. To help the UA to adapt to changing tactical situations that emerge from each fire fight — a sitrep is made. In this war, both sides are learning by dying — a harsh but unfortunate truth. The Russians likewise have plans to frustrate UA aims — this creates the fiction of war.
15. But the shocker has been Russian propagandists (of the type that have been claiming Russian breakthroughs in the Donbas for months) are now says Ukrainian troops have made it all the way to the Oskil river, nearly cutting off the major Russian deployment in Izyum. I am not sure if this is true in the fog of war but we will see.
16. Looking at the rail network map, it is no surprise that the Russians would defend the city and more. But the Oskil river South of Kupiansk is a potential death trap for reinforcements or breakout because of two reasons.
18. The Ukrainian fire support officer embedded with SF, watching the axis would be excited — but I have no access to the intelligence picture of the ECA for the Russian reinforcement (composition of forces & likely route).
13. That’s why war planners study the terrain, study enemy dispositions, anticipate the enemy courses of action, use deception, and set limits of advance for own forces — to ensure that you don’t over run your own logistics capability — so as to increase the chance of success.
14. To help the UA to adapt to changing tactical situations that emerge from each fire fight — a sitrep is made. In this war, both sides are learning by dying — a harsh but unfortunate truth. The Russians likewise have plans to frustrate UA aims — this creates the fiction of war.
15. But the shocker has been Russian propagandists (of the type that have been claiming Russian breakthroughs in the Donbas for months) are now says Ukrainian troops have made it all the way to the Oskil river, nearly cutting off the major Russian deployment in Izyum. I am not sure if this is true in the fog of war but we will see.
16. Looking at the rail network map, it is no surprise that the Russians would defend the city and more. But the Oskil river South of Kupiansk is a potential death trap for reinforcements or breakout because of two reasons.
One, every crossing location is in PzH 2000 and/or HIMARS range.
Two, Russia moved most of its pontoons to Kherson to try to bridge the Dnipro.
17. There is of course a downside to this; it could force a breakout battle or early commitment of Russian theatre reserves. I think the latest UA photo on the outskirts of Kupiansk is intended to trigger a Russian response that the Ukrainians have a counter for. The Ukrainians have a drawer plan for this move — a scenario that they had war gamed before.18. The Ukrainian fire support officer embedded with SF, watching the axis would be excited — but I have no access to the intelligence picture of the ECA for the Russian reinforcement (composition of forces & likely route).
(a) If I was a company commander of an ABG heading into Kupiansk proper, I would be very worried right now about Ukrainian follow-on forces, ammo state and start looking for where to dig my fighting positions — but that’s just me. Actual intel would give a Company commander time & space considerations before digging or to keep advancing (because if you are hugging the enemy, their artillery has a slight targeting problem).
(b) Another key aspect of this ops would be for the recce elements to link up with partisans in the city. IMO, the UA has great human intel on disposition of Russian forces in occupied cities and towns.
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