The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Dead Money]

Why you are assuming Russian lossing more ? Base on Oryx ? Or some Ukranian calculation ? My point on Ukranian have more losses not only Man Power and Equipment but most importantly their MIC.

I've struggled to get an idea of what kind of MIC various nations have - but even if fully intact, I'm sceptical as to whether it would make a substantial difference?

If we look just at tanks, this article claims the Ukrainians were producing around 6 tanks per annum:

Military Watch Magazine

(Note - the particular article's assumptions did not age well!)

Between 2012 and 2018 it looks like Ukraine struggled to build and supply Thailand with 49 T-84 tanks, with the contract at risk in 2014 and 2017 due to long delays.

Contract with Thailand on Oplot tanks supply completed – Ukroboronprom director general

Russia's production rate looks more impressive, with this article claiming it was producing 250 tanks per annum prior to the war:

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russian-weapon-exports

Since then the Russian defence industry has been effectively mobilised which could theoretically increase production Subscribe to read | Financial Times, though on the flip side it could be suffering shortages due to sanctions, delaying or stopping production, with at least two tank factories claimed to have shut down Russia using scrap metal from dishwashers, refrigerators in military hardware: US

So the Russian MIC may have the ability to keep their army in the fight, but not at the current rate of loss - in time there will either be less Russian tanks on the front line, or a lower the Russians will need to substantially improve their abilities to protect their tanks.

The Ukrainians have received more from international donations in 6 months than they could have hoped to produce in years from their own industry.

In my view Western MIC and Western willpower will be far more influential on this war's outcome than Ukrainian MIC or even Russian MIC.

 

[John Fedup]

I've struggled to get an idea of what kind of MIC various nations have - but even if fully intact, I'm sceptical as to whether it would make a substantial difference?

If we look just at tanks, this article claims the Ukrainians were producing around 6 tanks per annum:

Military Watch Magazine

(Note - the particular article's assumptions did not age well!)

Between 2012 and 2018 it looks like Ukraine struggled to build and supply Thailand with 49 T-84 tanks, with the contract at risk in 2014 and 2017 due to long delays.

Contract with Thailand on Oplot tanks supply completed – Ukroboronprom director general

Russia's production rate looks more impressive, with this article claiming it was producing 250 tanks per annum prior to the war:

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russian-weapon-exports

Since then the Russian defence industry has been effectively mobilised which could theoretically increase production Subscribe to read | Financial Times, though on the flip side it could be suffering shortages due to sanctions, delaying or stopping production, with at least two tank factories claimed to have shut down Russia using scrap metal from dishwashers, refrigerators in military hardware: US

So the Russian MIC may have the ability to keep their army in the fight, but not at the current rate of loss - in time there will either be less Russian tanks on the front line, or a lower the Russians will need to substantially improve their abilities to protect their tanks.

The Ukrainians have received more from international donations in 6 months than they could have hoped to produce in years from their own industry.

In my view Western MIC and Western willpower will be far more influential on this war's outcome than Ukrainian MIC or even Russian MIC.

Agree, Western MIC and more importantly, Western resolve will be the critical factors.

 

[Ananda]

Between 2012 and 2018 it looks like Ukraine struggled to build and supply Thailand with 49 T-84 tanks, with the contract at risk in 201

Yes agree on the argument Ukrainian MIC doesn't have good track record on productivity before. However from what those facilities production rate during USSR era (I read it on old printed article, thus don't have online copy on that), those facilities actually doing quite good rate of productivity relative even to US MIC.

So the low rate of production mostly due various problem on Ukraine administrations not putting enough Investment and priority toward their own MIC development. However for the sake of argument, what if Ukraine MIC survive due mostly located in West (not in East in actuality), or if Ukraine manage to move them West, as USSR did on moving their MIC beyond Ural mountains, far from invading forces.

Your number talking on normal condition production rate. Should they are surviving and located West say in Lyov further from Russian forces. It is probable to jack up their production rate multiple then the normal situation. Historically under war condition, any surviving MIC can multiple significantly their production rate, as the Investment now focus on them.

For West it is also easier to provide help on Ukrainian MIC to jack up production, rather then scrabbling around finding ex Warsaw pact assets or finding surplus from their own inventory. More importantly, what Ukrainian MIC produces is something that their forces already familiar with and thus not need much adjustment time.

We can see on old video how USSR peasants conscrip with minimal training being push to newly build T-34. Something they can't do if USSR has to depends with US or UK tanks.

I can't find the video from USSR archieve shown that (watch it on history channel years ago), but this video at least shown how T-34 build for Soviet peasants conscrip. It. Is hard for Western standard, but not for Soviet ones.

That's what's the benefits of owning your own MIC. You can build for your own specs, for your own conscrip condition, and also tailor to your own supply chain and logistics. You can't do that if you depends on someone else MIC.

Western MIC and more importantly, Western resolve will be the critical factors.

For Ukranian yes it is, as they don't have any other choices, as their own MIC already mostly destroy. Thus they will always on the mercy from Western rate of supplies, training, and most importantly political support.

my view Western MIC and Western willpower will be far more influential on this war's outcome than Ukrainian MIC or even Russian MIC

Don't underestimate Russian MIC production rate. The rate they are showing right now actually is not the max rate yet. Besides under war condition, they have enough capabilities and capacities to significantly jack up production. Question remains on Putin regime management skills and how to resolve supply chain back log.

US and Collective West already underestimate China capabilities to produce and more importantly to catch up Collective West quality. They already outproducing collective west, and continue catching up on quality. Thus don't underestimate Russian yet on their MIC productivity. Jacking up Russian MIC productivity is actually easier job then what China already done on theirs.

If production capacity that need to watch actually is from Euro zone MIC. Personally I do have doubt on Euro zone MIC to significantly increase production rate.

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russia air defenses firing, Novaya Kahovka.

Colonelcassad

Наши ПВОшники отражают удары по Новой Каховке. Удачной работы мужики.

t.me

Russian strikes on Nikolaev.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️По целям в Николаеве нанесены удары, прогремело несколько взрывов На Херсонщине пособники ВСУ снимали вылет ракет t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Russian strikes on Voznesensk, Nikolaev region. A Ukrainian military air field is in that area.

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A Russian oil platform struck on June 20th, is still burning to this day.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

American M739 detonators were found at the scene of a recent strike at the Zaporozhskaya NPP.

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Russian security forces have detained a former Ukrainian military officer in Melitopol' on suspicion of engaging in resistance operations.

Colonelcassad

В Мелитополе силовики задержали бывшего украинского офицера — он совершал диверсии В Мелитополе Запорожской области сотрудники силовых структур задержали подозреваемого в совершении диверсий. Раньше он был офицером ВСУ, сообщили в администрации города. По данным следствия, мужчина вел...

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov region.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️ Ракетный удар нанесён по целям в Харькове и области За кадры пуска ракеты спасибо нашему читателю из приграничья. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

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Russian UAV-based fire correction, Kharkov region.

Colonelcassad

Российский корректировщик артиллерии рассказал РИА Новости про свою работу и показал попадание по позициям украинских военных в Харьковской области Видео: @rian_ru

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Russian National Guard conducting security sweeps in Kharkov region. This one apparently turned up some abandoned munitions.

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Russian troops disposing of captured Ukrainian land mines, Kharkov region.

Colonelcassad

Российские военные показали РИА Новости, как обезвреживают оставленные украинскими националистами мины в Харьковской области Российский корректировщик артиллерии рассказал РИА Новости про свою работу и показал попадание по позициям украинских военных в Харьковской области Видео: @rian_ru

t.me

Izyum Salient.

A destroyed Ukrainian S-300 radar near Izyum. Note it's unclear when it was destroyed.

РаZвед_ДоZор

Уничтоженный украинский радиолокатор подсвета и наведения 5Н63С из состава комплекса ПВО С-300ПС. Изюмский фронт. @razved_dozor

t.me

Battle damage from a Russian strike on Kramatorsk.

Colonelcassad

Последствия удара по располаге ВСУ в Краматорске.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Russian Ka-52 apparently taking out a Ukrainian vehicle near Kamenka.

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Apparently a Ukrainian tank getting taken out near Ugledar, unclear if the same as above.

Репортёр Руденко V

Уничтожение украинского танка в полях под Угледаром. Артиллеристы с каждым днём набирают опыт и качество стрельбы становиться уровень-снайпер. «Кто к нам с мечом прийдет, от меча и погибнет!»

t.me

Allegedly destruction of a Ukrainian artillery position near Ugledar. We can see what might be secondary detonations.

Репортёр Руденко V

Уничтожение замаскированной в лесополосе артиллерийской установки врага в районе Угледара. На кадрах четко видно попадание и детонацию БК.

t.me

Allegedly Russian Wagner group firing artillery towards Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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Rebel 1st Slavyanskaya Bde, D-20s and Grads firing on Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

ВС России и Народная милиция ДНР постепенно отодвигают нацформирования на шаг назад. Так, артдивизион 1-й Славянской бригады активно поддерживает наступление пеших войск, которые, в свою очередь, передают артиллеристам разведданные. По этим точкам арта и наносит удары, освобождая дальнейший...

t.me

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What I think is a rebel D-20 firing towards Seversk.

Colonelcassad

Работа артиллерии "Oтважных" в Северском направлении Артиллеристы группировки "О" ведут массированный огонь по позициям ВСУ, уничтожая огневые точки и помогая пехоте прорывать оборону врага. Источник: @RVvoenkor

t.me

DNR 100th Bde firing MT-12s towards Neveslkoe, west of Peski.

WarDonbass

Экслюзивные кадры боевой работы 100-й бригады НМ ДНР из орудий мт-12 Рапира. Огонь ведется в направлении поселка Невельское. #эксклюзив от @WarDonbass

t.me

Battle damage from a Russian strike on Toretsk, north-west of Gorlovka.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная располага в оккупированном ВСУ Дзержинске.

t.me

Battle damage from a strike on Artemovsk/Bakhmut against an alleged Ukrainian staging area.

Направленец по Украине

В чатах Артемовска сообщают о демилитаризации расположения ВСУшников на территории кожно-венерологического диспансера. На фотографиях обращает внимание фургон зеленого цвета, который замаскировали в кустах.

t.me

Footage from the outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Heavy fighting is continuing in the area as Russian and rebel forces are bogged down inside the town.

МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ФАН

Вот так выглядят окрестности Бахмута сейчас. За город идут тяжелые бои. Фото: Сергей Среда #Бахмут #Донбасс @riafan_everywhere

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Russian National Guard snipers near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Башня Жданова

Снайперы Росгвардии поддерживают наступление наших войск на Артёмовск. Вычисляют командиров, наемников, вражеских снайперов. Каждое поражение цели должно быть обязательно подтверждено: с беспилотника или при личном осмотре тела. Такой кодекс. @zhdanovrt

t.me

DNR forces near Ugledar.

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DNR forces show off two new locally manufactured Cheburashka MLRS.

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Rebel forces in possession of the PARS Stupor anti-UAVrifle.

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Destroyed houses getting demolished, Mariupol'.

Colonelcassad

Снос разрушенных многоэтажек в Мариуполе. Сейчас помимо снова руин, в городе аврально строят целый квартал новых пятиэтажек, а до 2025-го года планируется построить до 130 тыс. квадратных метров жилья.

t.me

Russia.

Russian air defenses firing in Kerch, Bel'bek, Evpatoriya, Uyutnoe village (near Saki) and over the sea near Sevastopol', Crimea. This looks to me like an attempt to feel out the contours of Russian IADS coverage as a prelude to a bigger strike. Note the number of instances. Some UAVs were reportedly downed.

Mash

ПВО сработала в Керчи. Опасности для города нет. Об этом сообщил советник главы республики Аксёнова. UPD. Беспилотный летательный аппарат был сбит российской ПВО в районе Керчи на большом удалении от Крымского моста. Об этом сообщил член главного совета ВГА Запорожской области Владимир Рогов.

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Colonelcassad

Работа ПВО в районе аэродрома Бельбек. Наибольший интерес представляет вопрос - заходил ли уничтоженный БПЛА (и был ли он один) со стороны моря или речь идет о кустарном БПЛА запущенном ДРГ с территории Крыма.

t.me

Военкор Котенок

Севастополь - также работает ПВО. Поражена цель над морем.

t.me

ТалипоV

You can view and join @talipovonline right away.

t.me

Крымский канал

«Ни фига себе, может, учебная какая-то фигня». Поражение беспилотника из корабельной артсистемы ЗРК «Панцирь-С» в Севастополе. ✯kʞ✯

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Повёрнутые на войне

Работа ПВО в Евпатории

t.me

МИГ России

"Видел, полетели обломки?" Вот так наши доблестные ПВО в Западном Крыму только что приземлили украинца. Спасибо дорогим читателям за видео.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Между тем в Крыму снова отработала ПВО. Активность действий дронов противника в направлении Крыма очевидно возросла.

t.me

Colonelcassad

"Панцирь" в Севастополе сбивает вражеские цели.

t.me

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Another Ukrainian UAV hit the roof of the Russian naval HQ in Sevastopol' doing some damage to the building, but no reported casualties. A Chinese commercial Skye Eye UAV is suspected.

Colonelcassad

Очередной дрон прилетел в Севастополе в штаб ЧФ. Зацепил крышу здания. Серьезных повреждений и жертв нет. Губернатор Севастополя подтвердил факт атаки.

t.me

Милитарист

Сегодняшний удар по Севастополю предположительно наносился китайским коммерческим БЛА Skyeye

t.me

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A munition storage facility went up in Belgorod region near Timonovo.

Colonelcassad

Взрыв склада боеприпасов в,Белгородской области в районе Тимоново.

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Colonelcassad

Продолжается детонация на складе БК в Белгородской области. Относительно взрывов в районе Бельбека, сообщают, что там работала ПВО. Ну и в районе Керчи сбили БПЛА, который пытался долететь до Крымского моста.

t.me

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Misc.

A downed Ukrainian Mi-8, location and context unclear.

Белорусский силовик

Уничтоженный Ми-8 ВВС Украины Ваш Белорусский силовик

t.me

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Russian Orlan UAVs working with Nona-S SP mortars. Note, the use of Nona-S indicates either Marines or VDV.

Colonelcassad

Кадры работы беспилотников «Орлан-20» по обнаружению позиций ВСУ в ходе спецоперации. На основе данных БПЛА артиллеристы с помощью самоходок «НОНА-С» уничтожают вооружение противника. Видео: @rt_russian

t.me

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There are reports that new law in Ukraine may actually criminalize receiving Russian humanitarian aid even in occupied areas.

Патрик Ланкастер Новости сегодня (Patrick Lancaster News Today)

В настоящее время Украина объявила преступлением, наказуемым лишением свободы на срок до 15 лет, получение гуманитарной помощи на территории, контролируемой Россией в зоне боевых действий. Похоже ли это на правительство, которое заботится о своем народе?

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A Russian soldier with a Ukrainian Vulkan-M assault rifle. Location and context unclear.

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[hauritz]

Doesn't the attacking side nearly always pay dearly for their advances?
The US might be the exception because of their overwhelming firepower but Russia is advancing without sufficient aircover, with poorly trained troops, and poorly maintained and outdated equipment. I imagine their losses would be horrendous.

In terms of stamina a lot depends on how much continued support Ukraine from the west.

 

[STURM]

Doesn't the attacking side nearly always pay dearly for their advances?

Depends; at times yes, at times no; lots of historical examples.

The US might be the exception because of their overwhelming firepower

It certainly might but it's not just the "overwhelming firepower" [this didn't ensure victory in Vietnam and Afghanistan] it has the doctrine; the right kit; well trained troops; a world class air arm without peer; etc. As it stands however we'll only know for sure when it actually meets a peer or near peer opponent. For the past few decades the U.S. has only fought or initiated armed action against the likes of Iraq, Afghanistan Panama, Grenada and Iran and Libya.

 

[swerve]

...
Don't underestimate Russian MIC production rate. The rate they are showing right now actually is not the max rate yet. Besides under war condition, they have enough capabilities and capacities to significantly jack up production. ...

The USSR, with a much larger population & economy relative to NATO, & able to use the productive capacities of countries which are now on the other side, broke its economy trying to keep up.

 

[STURM]

In addition to providing to various Warsaw Pact countries the USSR also provided aid to socialists states like Angola, Cuba, Vietnam and others. Together with Afghanistan which was a major drain on resources: the USSR's coffers by the late 1980's bled dry.

 

[Vivendi]

Russia is transferring S-300 from Syria: Russia Pulls Its 'Syrian' S-300 Missile Battery, Ships It To Black Sea

Seems like they are running low on equipment since they decided to do this?

Interesting article in CNN: they claim Ukraine is using a method of resistance warfare developed by US special operations forces. The Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) was developed in 2013 following Russia's war with Georgia and has now (according to CNN) been implemented in Ukraine. How Ukraine is using resistance warfare developed by the US to fight back against Russia

Not sure how much of this is new -- several countries have previously demonstrated that a small country can resist an invasion from a larger country (e.g., Afghanistan has demonstrated this a number of times). What do the experts say about the ROC?

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Strikes and air defenses firing, Kherson.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Враг бьёт по Херсону, видна работа ЗРПК "Панцирь" ПВО и взрыв ракеты Не исключено, что ВСУ снова пытаются повредить Антоновский мост. t.me/RVvoenkor

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Reportedly 2 civilians were killed and 13 wounded as a result of the recent Ukrainian strike on the Antonov bridge, they were reportedly construction workers being sent to rebuild the bridge.

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A destroyed Husky TSV in Kherson region. Ukrainian sources are claiming it's a destroyed Russian vehicle.

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There are reports of the village of Blagodatnoe, Nikolaev region, falling to Russian forces.

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Nikolaev, remains of a S-300P missile, likely the result of recent intercept attempts.

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Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

A Russian strike in Chervonovo, against an alleged Ukrainian HQ.

Colonelcassad

Удар по штабу ВСУ в Червоном Кадры поражения позиции украинских формирований в Червоном на Запорожском направлении. Удар нанесен высокоточной ракетой воздушного базирования и пришелся точно в проем строения. Дом, куда попал боеприпас, похож на местную администрацию и является самым большим и...

t.me

The Zaporozhskaya NPP has been hit again, civilian casualties are reported.

Colonelcassad

Украинские боевики нанесли удар по ГЭС в Энергодаре, есть погибший В Сети появилось видео от очевидцев. На одной из записей мужчина после обстрела обнаруживает в районе ГЭС автомобиль с убитым осколками таксистом. Источник: @rusvesnasu и @bolshiepushki

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russia hit a Railroad Community House in Kharkov. It was allegedly being used as a Ukrainian staging area. Initial reports claimed that there were only civilians in there, but footage has surfaced suggesting Ukrainian forces were using the building.

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A factory burns in Kharkov, allegedly not the result of a Russian strike.

Оперативные сводки

⚡️ Кадры сильнейшего пожара в центре Харькова. Горит приборостроительный завод, по сообщениям местных СМИ загорелся он не вследствие обстрела ВС РФ, а по невыясненным пока причинам. @opersvodki

t.me

Izyum Salient.

Destroyed T-64BV, near Slavyansk. Allegedly Ukrainian.

Dambiev

Еще один украинский танк Т-64БВ, уничтоженный на Славянском направлении.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Shelling of Donetsk continues. Warning footage of corpses (3rd link). Reportedly targets hit by the strike included the government administration buidling used by Pushilin, head of the DNR, and a hotel that's known for housing Russian journalists.

Colonelcassad

Артиллерия ВСУ обстреливает центр Донецка.

t.me

Colonelcassad

В результате прилетов в центре Донецка отмечается попадание в многоквартирный жилой дом. Обстрел вела батарея 155-мм гаубиц со стороны Орловки.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия сегодняшних обстрелов Донецка. На 14-30 сообщается о 3 погибших и 6 раненых.

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Colonelcassad

Последствия попаданий в администрацию Пушилина в центре Донецка.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Пока у нас рассуждают о целесообразности ударов по объектам в центре Киева, в Донецке прилетело в администрацию Пушилина, а также в отель "Централь", где останавливаются российские журналисты. Также сообщают о погибших и раненых гражданских в результате массированного обстрела центра Донецка.

t.me

DNR 100th Bde in overrun Ukrainian positions, Mar'inka. There have been reports of incremental rebel gains there recently. In the video we see them take two Ukrainian POWs. Of course this might be staged.

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Allegedly overrun Ukrainian positions, and destroyed vehicles, outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Warning footage of corpses.

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Allegedly Russian fires on a Ukrainian position near Avdeevka targetting a couple of BMPs (1s?), a BRDM-2, and a tank (T-72B?)

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DNR 11th Rgt assaulting Ukrainian positions after artillery strikes.

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DNR 100th Bde, moves into a Ukrainian position, west of Peski towards Nevel'skoe, under the cover of a BMP and a tank. I wonder, because the pipe and the trench line in this one look a lot like the link above, but I can't quite match them as the same place.

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LNR 2S7M operating towards Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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DNR 107th btln firing mortars, Mar'inka.

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DNR 9th Rgt near Avdeevka. We can see BRM-1Ks, T-64BV, T-72B,

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DNR 9th Rgt in action, Kamenka village near Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

Бойцы 9-го полка НМ ДНР ведут огонь по пехоте противника, засевшей в зелёнке в районе Каменки под Авдеевкой. Источник: @milchronicles

t.me

Russian mercenaries in Yegorovka village, near Volnovakha. The video is mislabeled as belonging to the 810th MarBde, but the uniforms, equipment, and the commentary don't fit.

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Russian Wagner Group operating near Kodema.

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Russian Pacific Fleet Marines (likely 155th MarBde) opearting near Ugledar with T-80BVMs that have been up-armored with additional K-1 tiles over their regular armor. I'm not sure how well it works to mount K-1 over Relikt tiles, on the sideskirts.

Российские солдаты уже не надеются на броню своих танков (видео)

gurkhan.blogspot.com

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DNR troops of interior btln East, near Ugledar.

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DNR 123rd Rgt QRF is using a captured Kozak armored car.

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Russia.

More footage of air defenses firing over Sevastopol', Crimea.

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Apparently a Russian Border Guards Kamaz got hit by a loitering munition. It's unclear whether this is old footage of the previous incident or a new incident with details lacking.

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At the recent Army-2022 forum, Russia showed off what appears to be a clone of the Switchblade-300 munition. It's possible, though unclear, that it was captured in Ukraine, or that something similar was reconstructed with technology salvaged from the warzone.

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Training of volunteer fighters continues in Gudermes, Chechnya.

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More footage from the munitions dump fire, Belgorod region.

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Misc.

Two Russian Kh-69 (maybe 59?) striking targets, Ukraine.

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Russian TOS-1 fires, location and context unclear.

Colonelcassad

ТОС-1А "Солнцепек" ВС РФ проводит демилитаризацию личного состава ВСУ где-то на Донбассе. Видео (с) Александр Гармаев.

t.me

Russian/rebel UR-77 firing.

РаZвед_ДоZор

16 тонн тротила полетели на позиции нацистов @razved_dozor

t.me

A downed Bayraktar-mini, allegedly in Ukraine.

Хроника оператора БпЛА

Мини-байрактар долетался Кстати, это вроде бы первый сбитый мини-Байрактар, который зафиксировали

t.me

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Russian Il-76 with a medical module transporting WIAs.

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M-113 column in Ukraine. Location and context unclear.

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Russian 2S3 unit from Center MD (1st link), Msta-B unit and Uragan unit from West MD (2-3rd links) somewhere in Ukraine.

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Russian T-80BVs, Ukraine.

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Russian Kamaz truck uparmored haphazardly.

Mad Max

Бронесарай роZZийской армии. Мэд Макс отдыхает.

shusharmor.livejournal.com

Russian Cossack Bde DON riding what appear to be T-62s with roof cages, somewhere in southern Ukraine.

Colonelcassad

Танки казачьей бригады ДОН на южном направлении. Видио: @Ugolok_Sitha

t.me

NATO/EU.

Russian/rebel forces have captured a PV-1110, a Swedish recoilless rifle. I don't believe we've seen these supplied before.

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[Vivendi]

Breaking news: CNN reports Ukrainian forces have begun "shaping operations" in Southern Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for significant a counteroffensive: Ukrainian forces begin 'shaping' battlefield for counteroffensive, senior US officials say

Ukraine’s southern army command says “offensive operations have begun”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564216102053236736

Perhaps this is an opportunistic strike at tactical level?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564215627321167872

In other news, Sweden announced today that they are preparing a new military aid package of 500 million SEK (approx. USD47 million) -- in addition to that, another 500 M SEK in humanitarian aid. "We will continue to support Ukraine as long as the war is going on", the Swedish PM said in a statement today. Sweden to send Ukraine additional package of military aid worth 500M crowns

 

[Ranger25]

Breaking news: CNN reports Ukrainian forces have begun "shaping operations" in Southern Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for significant a counteroffensive: Ukrainian forces begin 'shaping' battlefield for counteroffensive, senior US officials say

Ukraine’s southern army command says “offensive operations have begun”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564216102053236736

Perhaps this is an opportunistic strike at tactical level?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564215627321167872

In other news, Sweden announced today that they are preparing a new military aid package of 500 million SEK (approx. USD47 million) -- in addition to that, another 500 M SEK in humanitarian aid. "We will continue to support Ukraine as long as the war is going on", the Swedish PM said in a statement today. Sweden to send Ukraine additional package of military aid worth 500M crowns

Map showing beginning phases.

 

[Feanor]

Breaking news: CNN reports Ukrainian forces have begun "shaping operations" in Southern Ukraine to prepare the battlefield for significant a counteroffensive: Ukrainian forces begin 'shaping' battlefield for counteroffensive, senior US officials say

Ukraine’s southern army command says “offensive operations have begun”

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564216102053236736

Perhaps this is an opportunistic strike at tactical level?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564215627321167872

In other news, Sweden announced today that they are preparing a new military aid package of 500 million SEK (approx. USD47 million) -- in addition to that, another 500 M SEK in humanitarian aid. "We will continue to support Ukraine as long as the war is going on", the Swedish PM said in a statement today. Sweden to send Ukraine additional package of military aid worth 500M crowns

Russian sources are confirming a Ukrainian counter-attack that recaptured the village of Sukhoi Stavok, though they're downplaying the significance, and claiming the other attacks were repulsed.

По "контрнаступлению на Херсон".

Украинские источники заявляют о контрнаступлении на Херсон и удар в направлении на поселок Сухой Ставок (в районе Белогорки) и даже взятие поселка Сухой Ставок. Пока что отмечается попытка продвижения из района Андреевки в направлении на Брускинское, Сухой Ставок и Костромку. В целом,…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Some footage of the action;

Allegedly a Ukrainian tank company getting hit while trying to advance. Honestly it's hard to make anything out for sure, but it look like a column getting hit by rather inaccurate artillery fire. Maybe there's infantry in the fields aroud it? Not sure.

Colonelcassad

Отражение попытки удара танковой роты противника на Херсонском направлении. Источник: https://t.me/HersonVestnik/7450

t.me

Ukrainian YPR-765s in action, Kherson.

Historywarweapon

You can view and join @historywarweapon right away.

t.me

The town of Berislav, next to Novaya Kahovka, got hit by Ukrainian strikes. Earlier plans were leaked by the Beregini hacker group that seemed to show this town as the target for the offensive.

Colonelcassad

Результаты обстрелов Берислава.

t.me

Russia has responded with a series of strikes against targets in Nikolaev, including a half-hearted one aimed at a bridge. Unconfirmed reports say that a Ukrainian brigade HQ was also one of the targets.

Colonelcassad

Прилет по Ингульскому мосту в Николаеве. Пока слабенько.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Сирены воздушной тревоги в Николаеве после ударов по объектам ВСУ в городе.

t.me

Colonelcassad

ВС РФ наносит удары по Николаеву. Проходили неподтвержденные сообщения о поражении штаба одной из украинский бригад.

t.me

EDIT: A map from the Russian side. Interesting to note, in the south the Ukrainian counter-attack is hitting Blagodatnoe and Aleksandrovka. Both were recently taken by Russian troops and likely don't have well prepared positions. It remains to be seen if this results in success. Up north the breakthrough looks like a small salient, and there are reports Ukrainian forces are trying to expand the base of the opening. Russia is claiming to have inflicted heavy casualties but of course evidence is lacking.

https://i.ibb.co/zsKf4b9/29-08-RU-1.jpg

EDIT2:

Footage of the Antonov bridge and pontoon crossing getting hit.

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More footage of Russian strikes on Nikolaev, and Ukrainian strikes on Berislav respectively.

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[Feanor]

Update.

Russian side reports that Ukrainian troops have been pushed out of Sukhoi Stavok, but have taken the village of Lozovoye at the base of this salient and Andreevka, with Russian troops not controlling Sukhoi Stavok either. At Vysoko-pol'ye Russian troops are repotedly cut off by heavy fires, but holding their positions.

They're also reporting Ukrainian advances along the Nikolaev-Kherson road with Ukrainian troops getting as far as Kiselevka, but then allegedly being pushed back to Soldatskoe.

https://i.ibb.co/vm37qdy/29-08-RU-1.jpg

Footage of allegedly Ukrainian mech infantry getting hit (we can see 3 of what look like BMPs and dismounts).

Повёрнутые на войне

Как хохол на БМП наступал. Только тут как минимум 3 члена экипажа 200 и пехота за самой машиной! #споо (что это означает, большой секрет, пусть историки потом голову ломают)

t.me

EDIT: Footage of Russian strikes on Ukrainian positions near Nikolaev.

Colonelcassad

Нанесение огневого поражения по укрепам ВСУ вдоль каналов в Николаевской области.

t.me

Footage of Ukrainian strikes on the pontoon crossing near the Antonov bridge.

Colonelcassad

ВСУ обстреляли понтонную переправу у Антоновского моста. Сообщается о раненых гражданских.

t.me

 

[tonnyc]

ICEYE Provides Ukraine with Access to Its SAR Satellite Constellation

The contract signed with the Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundation will provide Ukraine with the full capabilities for one of ICEYE’s satellites.

www.iceye.com

I am not quite sure how to accurately word this. At first I wanted to say Ukraine got access to a Search Aperture Radar satellite imaging capability, but I am sure they were already provided access to similar capability by friendly nations. Or maybe I could write that they bought (as opposed to given) such capability on their own, and thus have a direct control over how to use it, but technically a charity organization bought it and then designated the Ukrainian government as the recipient. I feel like anything I wrote on this would have parts that are misleading and people will be better off reading the entire press release on their own.

As for the effect this will have on the conflict, probably not much. I am sure NATO already provides satellite imagery data to Ukraine. That would explain how Ukrainian long distance artillery knows what to shoot at and where. So having this is not a game changer, but rather merely an improvement in their intelligence capability.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 3: Various factors that may change the battle geometry

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564285416802492417

4. There is video footage that suggests the Russian controlled bridge will indeed not be usable for much more than extremely careful foot traffic. The Russians are forced to use pontoon ferries to truck resupply into Kherson, due to the damage the Ukrainian Army has inflicted on the Antonovskiy Bridge. We can see the impact of precision strikes by M982 Excalibur rounds or HIMARS, at this single battle.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1561723341832060930

5. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have liberated four villages in Kherson region from Russian occupation, CNN reports — according to a CNN source, Novaya Dmitrovka, Arkhangelskoye, Tomina Balka and Pravdino have been liberated.

6. IMO, the larger the Russian forces there across the river from the Antonovskiy Bridge, the greater the need to keep the supply pipeline flowing to the Russian BTGs across the river. And below is unconfirmed video footage of an Ukrainian Army ABG on the move — I actually can’t tell where or when the video was taken.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564505548221038594

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Russia is reportedly displeased with Iran's drones.
I won't go into detail, except to say that production quality may not be the only factor here. Russia's own Orlan-10 drones were seen using simple Panasonic cameras, and water bottles as fuel tanks (this is not to bang on Russia, it's actually quite the demonstration of wartime innovation IMO).

Russia displeased with 1st combat drones delivered by Iran for Ukraine war – report

Moscow unhappy with early performance of advanced attack and stealth UAVs, says Washington Post; delivery said marred by serious technical failures in early tests

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

A small thought I had recently:

1. The fact that HIMARS is so popular, so successful, and Russia is having such difficulty countering it, really doesn't show anything special about HIMARS and its wide array of missile options.

• But it does tell us a whole lot about Russia - its armed forces are entirely unbalanced. It's not alone in this.
• Russia and Iran are very much alike when it comes to their armed forces, in both buildup and conception. But Russia's and Iran's armed forces are both unbalanced in the exact opposite ways.
• Russia has invested a lot of money into developing and producing better platforms, but lacks the munitions. A bit like giving an archer the best bow and ergonomic kit, but forgeting to take any arrows.

2. Iran develops munitions and very cheap platforms, but neglects the expensive core platforms. So a bit like taking a bunch of arrows without a bow.

• Iran has mixed success in its respective region. It can subjugate smaller nations, and it can bring the hurt to some others - and Russia can do the same.
• But when facing a determined and balanced foe, Iran's forces crumble.

3. For Russia, Ukraine is about an equal. Most of the equipment is of the same make, and Ukraine matches Russia in having a substantial amount of platforms.

• But it lacked munitions that would meet the potential of said platforms.
• Russia's defenses in eastern Ukraine began to crumble as soon as Ukraine became a more balanced force.

4. It's easy to say that a balanced force is the best option, but that's not the point. The point is that developing platforms is very expensive, and indicates Russia did not lack the funds to develop and produce necessary munitions. But it chose to neglect this sector entirely.

5. The corruption that resulted in understaffed units and ill-equipped AFVs is something that can be hidden. But munitions development and acquisition projects are not something that can be hidden so well. It's in plain sight for all to see, and they simply ignored it, as we've seen in Syria - RuAF planes dropping unguided iron bombs.

6. Hence, for a lot of money, Russia got a very low value.

7. I don't know if I added something new to anyone. Just a rant.

 

[STURM]

But it does tell us a whole lot about Russia - its armed forces are entirely unbalanced.

Well, that's certainly true but then we know that for the past decade or so Russian military planners never foresaw the posability that the army would be required to undertake a large scale strategic invasion of the 2nd largest country in Europe. The Russians planned for conflicts similar to what was faced in Georgia, Syria and the Donbas.

Iran develops munitions and very cheap platforms, but neglects the expensive core platforms. So a bit like taking a bunch of arrows without a bow

What it has is driven by operational requirements and actual ability production/technological wise. Its ambitions are not matched by its ability to gain the capabilities it needs but one can argue that a lot of what it has has enabled it to do what it so far has done which of course is far short of an actual war.

Russia and Iran are very much alike when it comes to their armed forces, in both buildup and conception.

I see a major difference; driven by the types of conflicts both countries see themselves being faced with. Iran relies largely more on asymmetric tactics due to the acute realisation that those it faces are far better resourced and trained as wellwe'll as the need to initiate actions which don't result in open war.

But when facing a determined and balanced foe, Iran's forces crumble.

Due to various reasons/limitations Iran's military is not intended to punch above its weight level. It's certainly not going to make the same mistake Saddam made by going heads on against a far more capable opponent.

 

[GermanHerman]

On the topic of platforms and munitions, there have been a lot of claims about russia using S-300 in an alleged ground attack mode.

Besides the claim I have trouble finding anything of relevance regarding actual information on this capability

Has anyone here insight into which missile is supposed to be used in that role?