The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

swerve · Aug 26, 2022

There are many attacks by Ukrainian artillery & missiles behind Russian lines.

Ananda said:
...Also your assuming Russian will shown all the results of their advance to online media. That's not seems what they are doing.

I've made no such assumption, & that isn't what you said. You wrote "better abilities". If Russia is choosing not to show something that is not because they lack the ability, but choice. It's a Russian decision.

So, why would they make such a decision? Others have pointed out that Russia has claimed, among other things, to have shot down more Bayraktar UAVs than the Turks have made, let alone the number Ukraine has bought. It looks to me as if the Russians may be trying to conceal the fact that their claims are enormously exaggerated. This is probably aimed at their own population, & foreigners who are pro-Russian.

Interestingly, the Russians make no attempt to keep their narrative internally consistent. They seem to be employing the technique described by George Orwell in 1984, in which agreeing with their version is a test of loyalty or support. Consider the example of the sinking of the Moskva. Officially, she sank in stormy weather. But there was no storm. Photos & videos from Russian ships showed her on fire in a flat calm, & public Russian weather reports showed good weather. Yet the official claim is not disputed (at least publicly) in Russia, & many overseas supporters of Russia appear to accept it, despite the level of cognitive dissonance required.

Ananda · Aug 26, 2022

swerve said:
You wrote "better abilities".

On this term, I'm pointing out that Ukraine has better abilities to manage their media exposure. I believe many in media even in Western media already aknowledge that.

How Ukraine is winning the propaganda war

How Ukraine is winning the propaganda war. From PR Week

www.prweek.com

Western media and the war on truth in Ukraine

Deception is at the heart of all warfare.

www.aljazeera.com

How Ukraine Is Winning the Propaganda War

As the Russian siege drags on, Ukraine's media campaign has shifted from glorified myths to accounts of everyday bravery.

www.wired.com

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/28/russia-ukraine-propaganda-misinformation-media-zelensky/

(Just an example of media opinion on that)

That's why for me only calculating how much Russia or Ukranian losses base only on online sources on photos is very debatable. Not saying Russian not lying, heck both of them are master of lying.

swerve · Aug 26, 2022

Yes, Ukraine is much better at information handling. But that's because of Russian clumsiness & easily-spotted dishonesty, not lack of opportunities to collect data on Ukrainian losses.

After 6 months, the Russian failure to provide credible data must be deliberate. If the Kremlin wanted it, I'm sure it'd be done. It's easy, not like training troops properly.

Ananda · Aug 26, 2022

swerve said:
. But that's because of Russian clumsiness & easily-spotted dishonesty, not lack of opportunities to collect data on Ukrainian losses.

If they're lousy in coordinating media war, the inabilities to coordinate data collection on Ukranian losses effectively, is part of that.

Vivendi · Aug 26, 2022

My impression is that Russian authorities are running their propaganda machine at full speed targeting the Russian population. As long as their propaganda is effective in targeting the Russian population, perhaps it does not matter to them how their propaganda is perceived by some people outside of Russia, since we are not the target population. Maybe they simply see no reason to convince us about the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed in their "special operation".

I may be wrong of course.

vikingatespam · Aug 26, 2022

OPSSG said:
3. If the Ukrainians could fight at an armoured brigade level — a tank battalion advancing in support of 2 or more battalions of IFVs (with a battery of 155mm SPHs in direct support for fires superiority), the battlefield geometry will change drastically. The US must have deployed a security force assistance brigade into Europe and are quietly training Ukrainian Forces — somewhere.

So if I understand you, while there are BDE level UKR formations, they just havnt trained enough to work as a BDE.

On the flip side, have the RU exhibited the ability to work as BDE sized units ?

vikingatespam · Aug 26, 2022

Ananda said:
Why you are assuming Russian lossing more ? Base on Oryx ? Or some Ukranian calculation ? My point on Ukranian have more losses not only Man Power and Equipment but most importantly their MIC.

More ? From where ? Oryx is calculating based on video and pictures taken. However Ukraine known have better abilities to conceals photo of their losses toward online exposures.

Let me put this way, if Russian losses as high as Western online sources claim, while Ukranian loss is much smaller as those similar sources claim, then not only they (ukraine) not lossing teritory, but they are already in Crimea, Mariupol and claiming back the lost azov sea coast.

Calculation varies depend on each sides claim, that's why it is very hard to considered any sides claim. I'm just talking on realities in the ground. They (Ukraine) will not be on defensive position as it is now, but already rolling back Russian if the claim of their losses is true.

About the only information we have approaching any degree of reliability (for equipment losses) is Oryx (and lostarmour ?). It is reasonable to say that RU tank losses have been ~1000 units. By the same measure, UKR have been much less in absolute terms, although maybe not % terms. Maybe the UKR forces have better OPSEC, but the RU are sure happy to take picture of UKR losses.

For manpower I dismiss both the RU and UKR official figures. US and British estimates put the RU losses at ~15K KIA. Since I am not a professional, I just take the average of the UKR and RU quotes (for RU losses) and guess ~20K KIA RU dead. They are both lying, the truth is somewhere inbetween.

Why would I think UKR losses are less than RU ? Other than the Severodonesk/Lysichansk part of the battle (~1 month), where the RU was playing to its advantages (closer to railheads, using artillery more effectively), the UKR forces were on the defensive, on their home terrain, which will likely keep their losses lower than the RU.

So if the UKR losses are lower for both INF and ARM, why arent they stomping the RU ? Another discussion here lays out the case that the UKR arent capable of attacks beyond the company level. I hope that the UKR are trying to keep losses light while giving up territory, while exhausting the RU manpower - and at some point will turn the tables very suddenly. We shall see what happens at Kherson.

Ananda · Aug 26, 2022

vikingatespam said:
Why would I think UKR losses are less than RU ? Other than the Severodonesk/Lysichansk part of the battle (~1 month), where the RU was playing to its advantages (closer to railheads, using artillery more effectively), the UKR forces were on the defensive, on their home terrain, which will likely keep their losses lower than the RU.

The big attrition battle that will cost Ukraine most likely coming from Donbas front. So any movement no matter small and grinding is potentially matter more then other front.

In the 'gray zone' outside Kherson, Ukraine's soldiers pay a terrible price

Ukrainian officials have vowed to retake the strategic city of Kherson. But the battlefield "gray zone," spanning more than 100 miles, is confusing — and danger can come in many forms.

www.npr.org

.

Even Western media didn't see Ukrainian making good ground on this supposed Kherson counter offensive. Even Russian forces there (including militia) still making push back. That Southern front is more on counter position movement back and forth.

Like I say before in my posts, Russia got big loss but I just don't buy it that Ukrainian got much smaller losses. On this kind of war where the fog of war very thick, personally I just see the movement in the ground, to ponder how far the progress or even stalemate really costing each sides.

As this moment everyone only can guess what going to happen next, but I just don't see Ukrainian have abilities to roll back Russian and regain much of their territory in East and South. Then again as this is only guess, I might be wrong, but so far I just don't see Ukrainian have that ability.

This Kherson offensive so far shown indication as more desperate action from Ukranian to distract Russian from main theater in Donbas. Destroying some facilities in Kherson and Crimea is not provide good meaning to stop Russian. If this is big effort as Western media claim that matter, what about the destruction Russian done in Nikolayev ?

Looking on Russian losses while not looking how far the Ukranian losses really are, will give one sided perspective.

vonnoobie · Aug 26, 2022

Im not buying the "Ukrainian losses have been higher" argument without any proof, saying that its because Ukraine can keep it hidden and Russia cant just makes zero logical sense at all. I believe IMO Russia did well early on and to date in destroying the MIC of Ukraine and even hitting as many ammo dumps as they could locate but when it comes to personnel losses that is entirely conjecture with zero evidence to back it up, as for material losses pre war Ukraine had circa 1,000 MBT's active, is it really alleged that Ukraine has lost the entirety of its pre war tank force seeing as Russian losses in MBT's are pushing 1,000. Dont get me wrong Ukrainian losses would have taken place behind their lines from Russian ground and air attacks, And such losses to an extent can be kept hidden but with under 250 MBT's confirmed by Oryx to date just how many tanks do people think Russian long range fires have taken out? If it was from massed artillery near the front sure but then their would more likely then not be evidence that Russia could post to show such (Video, photo, old wreckage) but seeing little of it. And if it was from long range missile fires and air attacks well their hasnt been nearly enough of that to hit so many small mobile targets.

Vivendi · Aug 26, 2022

Ananda said:
This Kherson offensive so far shown indication as more desperate action from Ukranian to distract Russian from main theater in Donbas. Destroying some facilities in Kherson and Crimea is not provide good meaning to stop Russian. If this is big effort as Western media claim that matter, what about the destruction Russian done in Nikolayev ?

You keep talking about the Ukrainian "desperate action". Well to some extent of course both sides are probably "despairing" in such a war of attrition between nations, however, I don't think Ukraine are showing particularly "desperate actions". On the contrary, many military analysts have commented that Ukraine has been very good at both planning their moves and also executing them.

The push in Kherson has indeed distracted Russia but I don't see anything desperate about it.. Just clever, in my opinion.

Mick Ryan on how Russia and Ukraine have adapted, interesting read: How Ukraine is winning in the adaptation battle against Russia

John Fedup · Aug 26, 2022

General interest question, which side fares better with an approaching winter, especially if it is severe?

Ananda · Aug 26, 2022

Vivendi said:
however, I don't think Ukraine are showing particularly "desperate actions".

If they manage to show real push back on Russian forces toward the river bank, or Kherson city lines, then I will conceive it is not desperate action but a strategic clever move.

If they manage to create Russian panic as much to stop them from pushing Ukrainian position in Donbas, then it is a real 'clever' move. Until then...

Vivendi said:
On the contrary, many military analysts have commented that Ukraine has been very good at both planning their moves and also executing them.

Depends on which military analysts, every media outlets in each sides now employed the so call military analysts. If we see the online debates, every one try to discredit other opinions. So..it is still much debatable.

Ananda · Aug 26, 2022

John Fedup said:
General interest question, which side fares better with an approaching winter, especially if it is severe?

Good question John, I guess we will see it in few months.

Feanor · Aug 26, 2022

Vivendi said:
Russia has more artillery, but had recently issues with supplies due to attacks on ammo and fuel depots negating some of the quantitative advantage. In any case, I was talking about total losses, since February 24, not just losses during this stage. I suspect it's impossible to tell which side has has had the largest total losses, unless you have access to classified intel.

I'm of two mind about Russian early losses. Many of those losses came from abandoned vehicles due to relatively minor damage or technical malfunctions. They may have lost disproportionate vehicles with relatively few troops. And we saw relatively fewer pictures of Russian KIAs, vs Russian vehicle damaged, abadoned, destoyed. On the other hand, Russia's unwillingness to be open about casualty figures of course suggests the worst. However what I think matters to the war moving forward is losses being taken now and likely to be taken in the future given the nature of the fighting.

It's what makes me interested to hear why OPSSG thinks Ukraine will be able to significantly change the way they fight, to field large combined arms groupings (btln+) effectively. A change in the nature of the fighting could certainly produce drastic alterations to these trends. As it stands, Russia is working hard on inflicting maximum casualties on Ukraine, and has the firepower to do quite a bit of that.

The news coming out from the Ukrainian side, and have been for quite some time now, are that Russian superiority in artillery is forcing the Ukrainian military to keep its head down, take losses, and try to hold ground when the eventual Russian advance comes. We also have plenty of footage of Russian snipers taking opportunity shots at what appear to be random Ukrainian service members on the front line. This is of course not the typical/ideal way to use snipers in a modern war, given what kind of high-value recon asset they represent, but it could result in disproportionate losses.

swerve said:
There are many attacks by Ukrainian artillery & missiles behind Russian lines.

If you had to make an educated guess on which side has hit rear areas and especially troops moving to the front line or troops in staging areas/rest areas during this war, who would you say? I know I'm seeing tons of footage of Russia hitting where they think Ukrainian troops are staging (with us even often getting confirmation from the other side), and far less of this in the other direction, but perhaps there's something I'm missing.

swerve · Aug 26, 2022

vikingatespam said:
..
For manpower I dismiss both the RU and UKR official figures. US and British estimates put the RU losses at ~15K KIA. Since I am not a professional, I just take the average of the UKR and RU quotes (for RU losses) and guess ~20K KIA RU dead. They are both lying, the truth is somewhere inbetween.

Why would I think UKR losses are less than RU ? Other than the Severodonesk/Lysichansk part of the battle (~1 month), where the RU was playing to its advantages (closer to railheads, using artillery more effectively), the UKR forces were on the defensive, on their home terrain, which will likely keep their losses lower than the RU.
...

The USA said 15,000 Russian dead to date about 3 weeks ago. The latest British estimates are more like 20,000 Russian dead. If their estimates are more or less correct (I'm not saying they are: I don't know), Russian losses were initially much heavier than Ukrainian, maybe 3:1, but they've been more equal recently. That could be because the Russians are mostly sitting back & shelling, & they have a lot more guns, while the Ukrainians are using their smaller numbers of long-range artillery pieces more selectively, to target Russian logistics rather than kill as many Russians as possible.

Aerojoe · Aug 26, 2022

Quick question from a novice, as the invading force what sort of numerical superiority would RU need in order to likely succeed with their invasion objectives (whatever those may now be)? I ask because if they started with numbers less than the ideal then every loss (regardless of exact numbers) if greater than they can replenish means they are going backwards over time and a war of attrition is a matter of when not if they fail.

pussertas · Aug 27, 2022

If I recall correctly (from time spent as one of Menzies, Chocolate Soldiers) the attackers had to out number the defender by 3:1

Feanor · Aug 27, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian troops have allegedly taken Aleksandrovka in Kherson region. It's unclear which of the three towns with this name, in this area, are meant, and at least one was claimed under Russian control previously.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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