John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Don’t see much advantage for Erdogan to derail Sweden and Finland. As for Hungary, perhaps their exit from the EU and NATO is for the best.
NATO
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Black Jack Shellac
Active Member
I don't think we should be kicking member countries out of NATO (or the EU for that matter) because they happen to elect an idiot. I include Canada and the US (among others) in that group for of their recent election picks (JT, DT, JB.....really?!?!). The only reason would be if the government of a country is fundamentally changing from a free and fair democracy to a totalitarian regime of some sort.
Scott Elaurant
Well-Known Member
This story is good news to me (I have Finnish relatives). USA, UK, France and Germany have all committed to help defend Finland and Sweden if they are invaded during the period they apply to join NATO but before they become formal members. UK has gone further, with the UK Defence Minister saying Britain would send military forces to help defend Finland if attacked. More than words, UK tanks are now stationed in Finland as part of a joint exercise. they may stay there till the question of Finnish/Swedish NATO membership is resolved.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
This would appear to resolve the last hurdle to Finnish and Swedish joining of NATO - a contingency plan to cover their mutual defence while they are in the application period. It would already have been very difficult for Russia to act with so many forces in Ukraine. Now they get involved in a war with other nuclear powers if they try. This is also presumably great news for the Baltic States, since it shores up their flank and rear Excellent news IMO.
(Personal bias and disclaimer: my grandfather was Finnish and emigrated to Australia. He fought both for Australia during WWI and Finland in the war for independence/Russian Civil War.)
Britain promises to defend Finland and Sweden if invaded
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has made clear that the United Kingdom would defend Finland and Sweden regardless of whether or not the nations join NATO.
ukdefencejournal.org.uk
This would appear to resolve the last hurdle to Finnish and Swedish joining of NATO - a contingency plan to cover their mutual defence while they are in the application period. It would already have been very difficult for Russia to act with so many forces in Ukraine. Now they get involved in a war with other nuclear powers if they try. This is also presumably great news for the Baltic States, since it shores up their flank and rear Excellent news IMO.
(Personal bias and disclaimer: my grandfather was Finnish and emigrated to Australia. He fought both for Australia during WWI and Finland in the war for independence/Russian Civil War.)
"Elaurant" - I know of a Finnish bloke called Jari Eloranta. Variation on same name?
Back on topic:
This is a public affirmation of stories that have been going around, supposedly based on off the record conversations IIRC. Good, as you say, removing one hurdle Putin was obviously trying to erect.
Back on topic:
This is a public affirmation of stories that have been going around, supposedly based on off the record conversations IIRC. Good, as you say, removing one hurdle Putin was obviously trying to erect.
Scott Elaurant
Well-Known Member
Swerve
As a matter of fact yes. My grandfather was Karlo Sigfried Eloranta. He arrived in Australia just before WWI and the family name was later recorded as Elaurant. Not sure if that was because of the risk of anti-German sentiment after WWI. He died in the 1950s, before I was born. He was one of a number of (then) Russian citizens in Australia who volunteered with Anzac forces.
russiananzacs.net
As a matter of fact yes. My grandfather was Karlo Sigfried Eloranta. He arrived in Australia just before WWI and the family name was later recorded as Elaurant. Not sure if that was because of the risk of anti-German sentiment after WWI. He died in the 1950s, before I was born. He was one of a number of (then) Russian citizens in Australia who volunteered with Anzac forces.
Russian Anzacs
russiananzacs.net
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Scott Elaurant
Well-Known Member
This article confirms the story reported earlier in the week. England has now signed a declaration that it will militarily defend Finland and Sweden if they are attacked, even if not members of NATO. Thank you Mr Johnston!
www.abc.net.au
Acknowledging my bias, I cannot see any downside for western security from this agreement. It prevents Russia deterring Finland or Sweden from joining NATO. Assuming Finland and Sweden do then apply to join NATO and are accepted, the NATO northern flank is then much stronger, with two sizeable and well equipped military forces coming in, and a large gap being plugged. Planning western naval and air defence over the Baltic is completely transformed.
'Everlasting assurance': UK pledges support to Finland and Sweden to fortify Europe's defence
British troops would come to the aid of Finland and Sweden in the event of a Russian attack under a new security deal signed by Boris Johnson.
www.abc.net.au
Acknowledging my bias, I cannot see any downside for western security from this agreement. It prevents Russia deterring Finland or Sweden from joining NATO. Assuming Finland and Sweden do then apply to join NATO and are accepted, the NATO northern flank is then much stronger, with two sizeable and well equipped military forces coming in, and a large gap being plugged. Planning western naval and air defence over the Baltic is completely transformed.
Quite a bit of irony here -- of the two main military powers in Europe (the UK and France) it was the non-EU member that signed the declaration of defense support with EU countries Sweden and Finland-- to add to the irony, it was one of the main Brexit proponents that travelled to Stockholm & Helsinki, whereas the strong EU proponent (that also called NATO "brain dead" not too long ago) remains at home...This article confirms the story reported earlier in the week. England has now signed a declaration that it will militarily defend Finland and Sweden if they are attacked, even if not members of NATO. Thank you Mr Johnston!
'Everlasting assurance': UK pledges support to Finland and Sweden to fortify Europe's defence
British troops would come to the aid of Finland and Sweden in the event of a Russian attack under a new security deal signed by Boris Johnson.
Not surprising, and I understand that France has other priorities (e.g., Africa / Mediterranean, etc.) but still -- EU is the main project of France, and both Sweden and Finland are strong, solid democracies with strong contributions to EU, and soon also NATO -- this puts the UK in a very good light, and France somewhat in the shadow, in my opinion.
As expected, the Finnish government and Finnish President have now declared that they support an application for NATO membership: Finland ansöker om Natomedlemskap - presidenten och statsministern gav besked
(Formally the Finnish parliament must make the decision, however with the Finnish Government supporting NATO membership there is a clear majority in the parliament so it's just a formality at this stage)
Sweden is expected to make their decision later this week.
There is now a strong support for NATO also in Sweden, in particular if Finland is joining. Thus Sweden will also join, I have not doubt about that.
(Formally the Finnish parliament must make the decision, however with the Finnish Government supporting NATO membership there is a clear majority in the parliament so it's just a formality at this stage)
Sweden is expected to make their decision later this week.
There is now a strong support for NATO also in Sweden, in particular if Finland is joining. Thus Sweden will also join, I have not doubt about that.
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Scott Elaurant
Well-Known Member
Agreed. all relevant reporting in Sweden has been of that view. the majority of the Swedish population is also in favour of joining Nato, as are all but one of their major political parties. But the Swedish PM felt it prudent to let Finland go first. Swedish opinion polling was such that a majority supported joining Nato, but the majority climbed to more than 2/3 if the question was whether to join Nato if Finland had already applied. So yes, it is a done deal now. I must say, Boris Johnson has done NATO a lot of good on this trip. Swedish and Finnish press are very complimentary of it.
I’m sure it will not hurt UK industry in trade terms either. Like AUKUS, Sweden and Finland also signed joint military technology sharing agreements with UK. To me that is a huge win-win, if for example UK and Swedish defence firms can share ideas.
The Finns will formally announce their NATO membership decision on Sunday 15/5/2022 after consideration by Parliament and senior political figures. However both the Finnish President and Prime Minister have fully endorsed a Finnish NATO Membership application, and quickly.
Finland to apply for Nato membership 'without delay' - BBC News
Apparently the Swedish decision will also be made on the same date.
Sweden’s ruling party to decide on NATO membership on May 15 | NATO News | Al Jazeera
Finland to apply for Nato membership 'without delay' - BBC News
Apparently the Swedish decision will also be made on the same date.
Sweden’s ruling party to decide on NATO membership on May 15 | NATO News | Al Jazeera
As expected, Russia now start to threaten Finland and NATO: Finland Nato: Russia threatens to retaliate over membership move - BBC News
"Finland's accession to Nato will cause serious damage to bilateral Russian-Finnish relations and the maintaining of stability and security in the Northern European region," it said.
"Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to neutralise the threats to its national security that arise from this."
What they fail to mention is that the only source of instability and lack of security in Northern Europe is Russia... as it is in Ukraine.
The Finnish president said in a response: "Joining Nato would not be against anyone. You caused this. Look in the mirror"
People in Europe no longer buy into the "alternate reality" presented by Russian authorities. In Europe NATO enjoys stronger support than ever, after the Russian illegal, unprovoked, invasion of Ukraine. It seems Russia is hellbent on making the situation only worse for themselves.
I hope NATO countries will make this a very speedy process, to reduce the risk of Russia doing more stupidities, hurting both themselves and others.
"Finland's accession to Nato will cause serious damage to bilateral Russian-Finnish relations and the maintaining of stability and security in the Northern European region," it said.
"Russia will be forced to take retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature, in order to neutralise the threats to its national security that arise from this."
What they fail to mention is that the only source of instability and lack of security in Northern Europe is Russia... as it is in Ukraine.
The Finnish president said in a response: "Joining Nato would not be against anyone. You caused this. Look in the mirror"
People in Europe no longer buy into the "alternate reality" presented by Russian authorities. In Europe NATO enjoys stronger support than ever, after the Russian illegal, unprovoked, invasion of Ukraine. It seems Russia is hellbent on making the situation only worse for themselves.
I hope NATO countries will make this a very speedy process, to reduce the risk of Russia doing more stupidities, hurting both themselves and others.
Survey in "the other" non-NATO, EU member neutral country in Europe, Austria - for a starkly different view to Finland:
At below link also split by political parties. Primarily favouring NATO (at 27% for joining for Austria) is the local ALDE-member liberal party NEOS. In favor of Ukraine joining are primarily NEOS, Greens and social democrats (at 54-55%) with conservatives and rightwing extremists not supporting such.
The survey is current and was published May 6th in case people wonder.
- 83% in favor of increased EU military cooperation
- 37% in favor of Austria joining "a European mutual defense organization"
- 14% in favor of Austria joining NATO (75% are opposed).
- 38% are in favor of Ukraine joining NATO (46% are opposed).
At below link also split by political parties. Primarily favouring NATO (at 27% for joining for Austria) is the local ALDE-member liberal party NEOS. In favor of Ukraine joining are primarily NEOS, Greens and social democrats (at 54-55%) with conservatives and rightwing extremists not supporting such.
The survey is current and was published May 6th in case people wonder.
I am guessing one reason for these results being so different from the results in Sweden and Finland is that in spite of the war in Ukraine Austrians still don't feel threatened by Russia. This is not difficult to understand, looking at the geography.Survey in "the other" non-NATO, EU member neutral country in Europe, Austria - for a starkly different view to Finland:
52% consider neutrality "still viable" (40% think neutrality "does not protect Austria in war").
- 83% in favor of increased EU military cooperation
- 37% in favor of Austria joining "a European mutual defense organization"
- 14% in favor of Austria joining NATO (75% are opposed).
- 38% are in favor of Ukraine joining NATO (46% are opposed).
At below link also split by political parties. Primarily favouring NATO (at 27% for joining for Austria) is the local ALDE-member liberal party NEOS. In favor of Ukraine joining are primarily NEOS, Greens and social democrats (at 54-55%) with conservatives and rightwing extremists not supporting such.
The survey is current and was published May 6th in case people wonder.
PS. You write ""the other" non-NATO EU member neutral country" -- actually there is a second country meeting those criteria, I am of course referring to Ireland. Like Austrians, the Irish currently don't feel threatened and therefore they also prefer status quo. Overwhelming support for retention of Ireland’s military neutrality (irishtimes.com)
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
For all intensive purposes Ireland is protected by NATO anyway, NATO and especially Britain is not going to allow a hostile country to occupy Ireland or an independent Scotland for that matter. Strategically to well placed to effect NATOs domination of the North Atlantic.
While the Irish view themselves as neutral, I’m not sure the Russians, if they think about Ireland at all, would do so. A democratic country in the shadow of the UK with no obvious direction to it’s foreign policy other than to be a member of the EU and support both the ptinciple and practice of the UN? In the Western camp.
After Sweden and Finland has joined NATO, the situation in Northern Europe will change significantly, In spite of being small countries with small populations (Norway, Denmark, Finland 5.5-5.8 million each, Sweden 10 million) and spending 1.5-2% of GDP, the collective defence forces look very solid, with approx 250 modern fighter jets (after 2028; 145 F-35 and 100 Gripen E/C/D), 2 AEW&C planes, 3 sigint planes, 2 EW planes, 5 ASW/patrol planes; 10 frigates, 16 corvettes, 10 diesel electric submarines, 15 minesweepers, 5 minelayers, 3 sigint boats. The Norwegian and Danish armies are in general very competent and well equipped, but tiny. Luckily the Finnish army is among the largest in Europe (wartime strength of 280,000) well equipped, and very competent and will greatly enhance the NATO land forces in the North.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Can’t help but think some of Ireland’s opposition to joining NATO is anti British sentiment. Probably doesn’t matter, if stuff hits the fan, Ireland will be be in the NATO camp, like it or not.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Sweden and Finland joining NATO will make it virtually impossible for the Russian Navy to operate in the Baltic, completely cutting of Kaliningrad. It would not be that difficult for NATO to completely close off the Gulf of Finland with the 2 Capitals(Talinn and Helsinki) Bookending the closest points.
Of course. I would say that has a fair bit to do with it and I don't blame them. I have a fair amount of Irish Catholic blood flowing through my veins mixing with the Maori blood. Makes life interesting.
Update on the NATO and Finland/Sweden situation:
Turkey's president Erdogan said today that he is not positive to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, referring to Finlands and Swedens support for "terrorist organizations". Erdogan also said that allowing Greece into NATO in 1952 was a "mistake" and should not be repeated now.
Sweden and Finland claim to be very surprised by this since they have been in dialogue with Turkey in April, and got the clear impression that Turkey would support Finnish and Swedish NATO membership.
Two theories have been proposed to explain Turkey's "change of mind":
1. Turkey is working together with Russia on different things, in particular in Syria but also elsewhere. It has been suggested that Turkey has made a deal with Russia, to block Swedish/Finnish NATO membership, in return Russia will have to pay a "steep price" to Turkey (whatever it might be).
2. Turkey is not really interested in blocking Finland/Sweden, they just want to get concessions from Sweden/Finland in particular when it comes to how they treat Kurdish "terrorists". Many Kurds have fled from Turkey to Sweden in particular (and I guess some are also in Finland) and Turkey probably want the two countries to treat the Kurds much more "roughly" than today.
In my opinion scenario 2 above is the most likely, and that Turkey will allow Finland and Sweden to join, once Turkish demands on how to handle Kurds in Finland/Sweden have been met. However, I also find the reference to Greece a bit ominous. If Turkey really intend to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO then I hope the other NATO countries will seriously consider to kick Turkey out, before letting Sweden and Finland in. Honestly, if I had to choose between Finland/Greece/Sweden on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, I would definitely go for FGS and get rid of Turkey. They have caused a lot of problems for NATO the last few years, including the infamous purchase of S-400 systems from Russia, which forced the F-35 consortium to kick Turkey out of the F-35 program. Also, the way they behaved in the ME when IS and other islamist terrorist organizations started to grow, was rather disgusting in my opinion.
Erdogan går imot Nato-medlemskap for Sverige og Finland – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer
In other news, Russian company RAO declared today that they will stop export of electricity to Finland, claiming that they have not received payment for the last electricity bill due in May.
Russland tar strøm-grep: - Påvirker hele Norden (dagbladet.no)
We certainly live in interesting times...
Turkey's president Erdogan said today that he is not positive to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, referring to Finlands and Swedens support for "terrorist organizations". Erdogan also said that allowing Greece into NATO in 1952 was a "mistake" and should not be repeated now.
Sweden and Finland claim to be very surprised by this since they have been in dialogue with Turkey in April, and got the clear impression that Turkey would support Finnish and Swedish NATO membership.
Two theories have been proposed to explain Turkey's "change of mind":
1. Turkey is working together with Russia on different things, in particular in Syria but also elsewhere. It has been suggested that Turkey has made a deal with Russia, to block Swedish/Finnish NATO membership, in return Russia will have to pay a "steep price" to Turkey (whatever it might be).
2. Turkey is not really interested in blocking Finland/Sweden, they just want to get concessions from Sweden/Finland in particular when it comes to how they treat Kurdish "terrorists". Many Kurds have fled from Turkey to Sweden in particular (and I guess some are also in Finland) and Turkey probably want the two countries to treat the Kurds much more "roughly" than today.
In my opinion scenario 2 above is the most likely, and that Turkey will allow Finland and Sweden to join, once Turkish demands on how to handle Kurds in Finland/Sweden have been met. However, I also find the reference to Greece a bit ominous. If Turkey really intend to block Sweden and Finland from joining NATO then I hope the other NATO countries will seriously consider to kick Turkey out, before letting Sweden and Finland in. Honestly, if I had to choose between Finland/Greece/Sweden on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, I would definitely go for FGS and get rid of Turkey. They have caused a lot of problems for NATO the last few years, including the infamous purchase of S-400 systems from Russia, which forced the F-35 consortium to kick Turkey out of the F-35 program. Also, the way they behaved in the ME when IS and other islamist terrorist organizations started to grow, was rather disgusting in my opinion.
Erdogan går imot Nato-medlemskap for Sverige og Finland – NRK Urix – Utenriksnyheter og -dokumentarer
In other news, Russian company RAO declared today that they will stop export of electricity to Finland, claiming that they have not received payment for the last electricity bill due in May.
Russland tar strøm-grep: - Påvirker hele Norden (dagbladet.no)
We certainly live in interesting times...