The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Twain]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517253285496950786

Pretty serious losses for only 2 months, then add in this if confirmed

"Russian forces may be preparing to conscript Ukrainian citizens amid continuing recruitment challenges. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 20 that Russian occupation forces are planning to hold pseudo-referendums in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts to declare a forced mobilization and “throw ‘mobilized’ Ukrainians to the hottest parts of the front.”[1] If confirmed, this effort is highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will provoke an uptick in protests and partisan actions against Russian forces in these regions. "

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and

www.understandingwar.org

We've already seen a mobilization in LNR/DPR, by the looks of the troops it's pretty much every man that can hold a gun



Which leads to the questions, is Russia that desperate for any soldier they can get and how long can they keep going without at least going on the defensive?
Secondarily, Considering the amount of partisan activity in Kherson, I can't imagine handing a bunch of conscripts a gun is a good idea.

 

[Todjaeger]

Does this mean it has the capability to attack Moscow itself?
[Mod edit: Text deleted as it conforms to the Russian media talking point that NATO/US intends to attack Moscow through a proxy. You are being given the benefit of the doubt, this time (no sanctions applied for this post).

Pro-Putin TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov has spoken about the next stage of the conflict in Ukraine leading toward a war "against Europe and the world" during his show on state-run channel Russia-1.

"I believe the special military operation is entering a new stage," said the Russian journalist, talking to six guests on his show, Evening with Vladimir Solovyov. No reply to this is necessary.

OPSSG]

Considering that Moscow is several hundred klicks from the closest pre-invasion Russian-Ukrainian border, I doubt that a suicide drone would have the range, absent further information. While yes, the above information does suggest a flight/loiter time of up to 6 hours, we do not know what the flight profile (effective altitude, air speed, etc.) of the drone would be, or the degree of autonomy it can have. Even if the flight characteristics would enable a drone to actually reach distances of 450+ km from their take off point, the drones command, control & communications systems might have no where near that range. Some of the larger. more expensive and more capable drones in use are controlled from ground stations on different continents using SATCOMMS, but I have not gotten the impression that Phoenix Ghost uses such a control system.

 

[Feanor]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1517253285496950786

Pretty serious losses for only 2 months, then add in this if confirmed

"Russian forces may be preparing to conscript Ukrainian citizens amid continuing recruitment challenges. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 20 that Russian occupation forces are planning to hold pseudo-referendums in occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts to declare a forced mobilization and “throw ‘mobilized’ Ukrainians to the hottest parts of the front.”[1] If confirmed, this effort is highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will provoke an uptick in protests and partisan actions against Russian forces in these regions. "

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces made minor advances in the ongoing offensive in eastern Ukraine on April 19, seizing several small towns and advancing into the key frontline towns of Rubizhne and Popasna. Russian forces continued major assaults with heavy air and

www.understandingwar.org

We've already seen a mobilization in LNR/DPR, by the looks of the troops it's pretty much every man that can hold a gun

View attachment 49184

Which leads to the questions, is Russia that desperate for any soldier they can get and how long can they keep going without at least going on the defensive?
Secondarily, Considering the amount of partisan activity in Kherson, I can't imagine handing a bunch of conscripts a gun is a good idea.

The LDNR has already conscripted Ukrainian citizens, and seems to have gotten some combat value out of them. I don't know how valuable forces pulled involuntarily from Kherson and Zaporozhye would be, but I would not be surprised if LDNR forces were willing to pull volunteers from there, and even Russia might choose to form volunteer units out of locals. While there likely aren't that many locals willing to fight for Russia, the number probably isn't 0.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

The LDNR has already conscripted Ukrainian citizens, and seems to have gotten some combat value out of them. I don't know how valuable forces pulled involuntarily from Kherson and Zaporozhye would be, but I would not be surprised if LDNR forces were willing to pull volunteers from there, and even Russia might choose to form volunteer units out of locals. While there likely aren't that many locals willing to fight for Russia, the number probably isn't 0.

I think that rather than soldiers to fight in the front lines they may recruit people to work in the rearguard helping with logistics and such.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 4 of 4: Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAVs & other details

8. Without national mobilization, the Donbas offensive is the last the Russian military can attempt. Whether it succeeds, or fails, the Russian military will be largely exhausted in terms of offensive potential. The Russian attempt at a partial envelopment of Ukrainian positions in the northern part of the Donbas, carrues

Does this mean it has the capability to attack Moscow itself?

While yes, the above information does suggest a flight/loiter time of up to 6 hours, we do not know what the flight profile (effective altitude, air speed, etc.) of the drone would be…

Even if the flight characteristics would enable a drone to actually reach distances of 450+ km from their take off point, the drones command, control & communications systems might have no where near that range.

9. Agreed, Pentaprism is way off-base on the operating range of the Phoenix Ghost — it cannot have the range to attack Moscow.

10. In addition to Todjaeger’s insightful post, having a 6 hour duration, does not mean flying one way for 6 hours. It’s a man-in-the-loop system & Ukraine will need repeaters or rebro to extend range. Without satcom and repeater/rebro stations, any UAV would have range limitations. These loitering munitions supplied to Ukraine are not designed to attack autonomously from long range. In a loitering munition, the operator is doing the targeting — he is not satcom connected to the munition, as it makes the loitering munition really expensive.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1197019886930812928

11. Most military use either satcom or repeater/rebro stations, for longer range UAV missions. In higher end UAVs, you can see a satcom antenna blister (eg. ScanEagle a beyond line of sight UAV). In war games, notional enemies will try to kill our rebro.

12. Artillery in the late ‘80s to early ‘90s CONOPS, FOs always need rebro support to maintain comms and call for fire at 30km+ range. These are always in the comms plan of a professional army. Below are pictures of a Malaysian rebro station.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1049818867667587073

 

[T.C.P]

UA AD in action

Russian Mi-8 eating a sam to the face. Not sure if this is a manpad or an OSA. This was near the Zaporozhye region. Today so far we have reports of 2 Mi-8s and 1 Ka-52 going down. I have seen the confirmed pics from the Mi-8s

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u8okw7
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u8q5bi
Russian air craft getting shot down, it seems high altitude and you can see two parachues pop up. Do not know the date. This could have been one of the ealrier Su-30/34 losses or a more recent one

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u8k180
UA forces firing ZU-23

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u8vmi9
UA Artillery and ATGM stikes

Stugnas hitting. The second video is of a very long range hit too.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/u8l8r1
A T-72 is hit with a Ukrainian Stugna-P missile at an estimated distance of 4.5 km

Russian Column getting hit bad. By the end of this war, UA and the DPR guys will have some of the world's best artillery men. When this conflict ends, UA will be able to earn quite some many by having their guys train developing nation militaries. Old Soviet artillery made accurate by information from cheap commerical drones- Thats something I expect many developing countires to be interested in.

Footage of 54th Mechanized Brigade striking Russian columns in Donetsk Oblast

UA using drones to track Russian artillery and wiping them out with their own.

"Dnieper Air Intelligence Unit Azov, successfully destroyed the artillery with the help of a drone"

UA MLRS

Ukrainian BM-21 Grad MRLS targets Russian forces between Balakliya and Izyum in Kharkiv Oblast

UA taking down a Russian UAV

https://twitter.com/DimSel007/status/1517184021054337026

UA defense of Mauripol

A BTR 82 rolling on a tank mine and then getting hit with 2-3 RPGs. According to Russians only slight injuries to the crew. No internal explosions caused. The BTR-82 is getting pulled out by a T-72

Footage of a projectile from the national battalion "Azov" grenade launcher hitting the armored personnel carrier of the marines of the Russian Federation.

Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/bulat1990 • 1,045 points and 146 comments

old.reddit.com

Tank rolling onto an anti tank mine, the tank is able to reverse for a distance afterwards. Potential mobility kill.

Russian tank stepping on a mine in Mariupol.

Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/Dusan-Lazar • 10,806 points and 585 comments

old.reddit.com

Russian/DPR 'special forces' night time ambushes

Note, I titled this section special forces, just becuase the video titles said so. But in the last week I have been seeing an increase in Russian ambushes using NVG. The dates are never mentioned. So no idea if these are recent or recent and older videos mixed in

Special forces attacked the dugout of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at night

Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/[deleted] • 585 points and 265 comments

old.reddit.com

[deleted by user]

A forum for combat footage and photos from historical to ongoing wars.

old.reddit.com

UA check point getting attacked

Ukrainian checkpoint attacked by Russian special forces

Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/restform • 6,371 points and 1,033 comments

old.reddit.com

UA patrols being wiped out by DPR and Chechens

Possibly TDF auxilliaries getting caught out, this one of the 4 videos I have seen in the past 24 hours, I only have links to two, the other 2 got deleted

https://twitter.com/thrussophile2/status/1517354839977730048

Retreating UA getting caught out badly. They seem to be in a panic, no idea what happened before, maybe they were in a vehicle which got taken out, not sure. The video is potatoe quality, but they dont seem to be well armed, which is I am thinking their transport vehicle got struck or something. But all of that is just me guessing.

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Russian Artllery and Guided missile strikes

This is during the Russian Night time strikes, this strike on a UA tank is either from an Orlion UAV or guided artillery. Apparently the telegram comment accompanying this video says you can see multiple heat signatures of dead forces lying aorund after 3 waves of strikes, but the only thing I can make out of it, is the tank strike.

Russian strike on Ukrainian tank

Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/tnsnames • 224 points and 77 comments

old.reddit.com

The title on this one says its a Tos-1 stirke, but we can only see singular strikes landing, and I am not sure if MLRS is sued to lanch singular or only 2 rockets. Could be thermobaric artillery rounds fired from SPGs.

Drone footage of a Russian MLRS on Ukrainian positions. Possibly a TOS-1.

Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/Vovkovych • 115 points and 17 comments

old.reddit.com

Misc

Elite DPR units in the Azovstal factories

DPR's special forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs(MVD) advancing on Azovstal industrial area

Posted in r/CombatFootage by u/Stng84 • 414 points and 158 comments

old.reddit.com

 

[swerve]

Is the Ukraine about to face the same issues as Russia - coordination?

Not ad nauseum, but, British commentators stress that the British practice combined arms all the time; with the gift of Hvy Arty SPGs, Ukraine will begin receiving considerable firepower, however, it will need AD and logistics capability that enable fire and move, protecting against Russian air and interdiction of supply lines will be challenging.

Can they move onto the offensive which would require a whole new level of coordination with infantry and tanks and even heavier draw on logistics?

Ukraine already has heavy artillery including SPGs. The guns which have been announced as being given are not a very large addition to numbers, though they may be more valuable than the raw numbers suggest, especially as they seem to be accompanied by lots of ammunition.

 

[Dead Money]

The deputy command of the Russian CFD says Russia plans to open a land route to Transnistria as part of the second phase of it's military operations!

Russia says it plans full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine

I can't understand why a Russian commander would make such a bold claim - the Russians have previously been pretty coy about what their goals were, putting out something as bold and I would think apparently out of reach seems.... ill considered? The Russian army is still trying to digest Mariupol, encircle the JFO, and now is claiming capability to either occupy or besiege Mykolayiv, and Odesa - which is two times the size of a city that held up 12 BTG's?

I'm stunned, can anyone speak to what the play is here?

 

[Feanor]

At Kahovka, Russia raised the Victory Banner, the Russian state banner, and the Soviet state flag? There has been a pattern of Ukrainian flags being removed across occupied areas, especially southern Ukraine, frequently (though not always) replaced by the tri-color. However this is something different. I know that Russian leadership is leaning heavily on Soviet nostalgia throughout Ukraine (and with good reason, they don't have much else to lean on) but this takes it pretty far in my opinion. When the LNR and DNR were organized, I know the LNR leadership was heavily influenced by communists or socialists (it's even reflected in their state crest, very reminiscent of Soviet symbols). There may be a plan to lean on left wing socialist/communist movements in southern Ukraine as part of the political and administrative efforts to control these regions.

Флаги в Каховке

Флаги в освобожденной от украинских нацистов Каховке. Плюс Ильич вернулся в Мелитополь на свой день рождения.

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

 

[Big Slick]

I see lots of video of Russian artillery and rocket strikes, not much footage of CAS. Are Russians making good use of CAS? Also wondered if they have employed any Naval guns in Black Sea or Sea of Azov?

 

[Twain]

The LDNR has already conscripted Ukrainian citizens, and seems to have gotten some combat value out of them. I don't know how valuable forces pulled involuntarily from Kherson and Zaporozhye would be, but I would not be surprised if LDNR forces were willing to pull volunteers from there, and even Russia might choose to form volunteer units out of locals. While there likely aren't that many locals willing to fight for Russia, the number probably isn't 0.

It wouldn't be zero but it wouldn't be near as many as russia would like to believe. Their intelligence said Ukrainians would welcome them, the reality is obviously very different, even in eastern and southern areas.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1514939687898685442

Data is from January 2022

This isn't new information either, from 2014

https://www.iri.org/wp-content/uploads/legacy/iri.org/2014%20April%2024%20Survey%20of%20Residents%20of%20Ukraine,%20April%203-12,%202014.pdf

"Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army into Ukraine under the pretext of protecting Russianspeaking citizens?"

Even in the east 69% said no or rather no, in the south 75% responded no

another survey from 2014

The poll that shows not one majority in any Ukrainian region favours joining Russia

The poll that shows not one majority in any Ukrainian region favours joining Russia - CityAM

Russia's incursion into Crimea has so far been justified on the grounds of protecting those citizens of Russian descent and Russian speakers. On Monday, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, at UN meetings in Geneva, said "this is a question of defending our citizens and compatriots, ensuring...

www.cityam.com

"An opinion poll conducted in February by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, found there is not a single region in Ukraine where there is a majority in favour of unification with the Russian Federation. In Crimea, where pro-Russian sentiments are the strongest, 41 per cent were in favour of unification with Russia.

In the Donetsk region, just 33 per cent supported joining the Russian Federation and the numbers are even smaller in other parts of the country. In Ukraine as a whole only 13 per cent said they wanted unification with Putin's Russia."


Those last two are from 2014, and public opinion against russia definitely hasn't improved after 2 invasions.

This whole narrative that ethnic russians want to be part of russia is largely just russian propaganda. The people that want to be part of russia are a definite minority.

 

[Exonian]

The deputy command of the Russian CFD says Russia plans to open a land route to Transnistria as part of the second phase of it's military operations!

Russia says it plans full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine

I can't understand why a Russian commander would make such a bold claim - the Russians have previously been pretty coy about what their goals were, putting out something as bold and I would think apparently out of reach seems.... ill considered? The Russian army is still trying to digest Mariupol, encircle the JFO, and now is claiming capability to either occupy or besiege Mykolayiv, and Odesa - which is two times the size of a city that held up 12 BTG's?

I'm stunned, can anyone speak to what the play is here?

As I posted a few pages back we still do not know what the Russian aim truly is. Perhaps even they do not know - depending on what opportunities may crop up.
If Russia does manage to control the Donbas, and Southern Ukraine to link to Transnistra then clearly the whole of Moldova will then be vulnerable. By this stage there will be so much resentment and rage stored up around the region, not to mention weapons of various calibres everywhere. Guerrilla warfare spilling across borders would be inevitable, and Russia could then claim to need to take the whole of Ukraine to 'de-militarise it'.

 

[QEDdeq]

The deputy command of the Russian CFD says Russia plans to open a land route to Transnistria as part of the second phase of it's military operations!

Russia says it plans full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine

I can't understand why a Russian commander would make such a bold claim - the Russians have previously been pretty coy about what their goals were, putting out something as bold and I would think apparently out of reach seems.... ill considered? The Russian army is still trying to digest Mariupol, encircle the JFO, and now is claiming capability to either occupy or besiege Mykolayiv, and Odesa - which is two times the size of a city that held up 12 BTG's?

I'm stunned, can anyone speak to what the play is here?

There are a few possible reasons I could think of:

1. They want to signal pro-Russian factions in Moldova to start organising themselves. The breakaway republic of Transnistria is just a small piece of Moldova but apart from Transnistria there is still a significant segment of ethnic Russians inside Moldova itself which politically are at odds with the pro-Western factions. These pro-Russian factions are not insignificant, for example they had a pro-Russian president there before the current president.

2. They want Ukraine to keep reinforcing Odessa area or at least not pull out units from that sector to reinforce Donbass.

3. They want to message the Western world that Russia is in this war for the long haul and having great territorial ambitions. Putin might be hoping that this would alter the risk vs payoff calculation in the West. A good BBC article on ordinary Americans balancing support for war vs rising prices for fuel and food. People in many Western countries are worried abut the economy and this is already seen from the presidential debate in France and how candidates are scoring on an economy message vs a war message, the recent German reticence on sending more weapons is also an indicator. I see people claiming there are many voices against Scholtz but no one really knows what the silent majority thinks. Even Boris said today that a Russian victory in Ukraine can not be excluded which is a far cry from the bellicose statements he was making a month ago. So if indeed appetite for war is going down in the West, Putin might calculate that threatening an even longer war and even higher territorial ambitions might determine the West to push Zelenski towards compromise with Russia rather than prolonging the war via more weapons and more financial support.

4. That general was drunk and he simply spoke too much.

 

[GermanHerman]

The deputy command of the Russian CFD says Russia plans to open a land route to Transnistria as part of the second phase of it's military operations!

Russia says it plans full control of Donbas and southern Ukraine

I can't understand why a Russian commander would make such a bold claim - the Russians have previously been pretty coy about what their goals were, putting out something as bold and I would think apparently out of reach seems.... ill considered? The Russian army is still trying to digest Mariupol, encircle the JFO, and now is claiming capability to either occupy or besiege Mykolayiv, and Odesa - which is two times the size of a city that held up 12 BTG's?

I'm stunned, can anyone speak to what the play is here?

According to Dmitri Alperovitch it's a faulty Translation:

Control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria”: Most controversial part of the statement. Some are reading it as a foreshadowing of a new offensive on Mykolaiv and Odesa.
I don’t see it that way. “Way out to Transnistria” (выход) is not the same as a corridor/bridge and does not imply direct connectivity. It’s about future optionality for a new offensive but not an indication that one is imminent or may even ever take place.

Maybe @Feanor or another russian speaker can chip in here and say if this is right, although at least Michael Kofman seems to agree.

 

[Ananda]

In Crimea, where pro-Russian sentiments are the strongest, 41 per cent were in favour of unification

Moscow clearly show many propaganda. However when this Pool shown only 41% of Crimean wants unification with Russia, then it's also Kyiev propaganda.

Kyiev now practically push down pro Russian political opposition, under the context of national security. West try to potrait this war simply as Russian invasion. However this's also not shown real internal Political and ethnic divide in Ukraine.

This's not justification of war, but also not going to shown everything is Rossy in Ukraine especially after maydain.

 

[Twain]

Moscow clearly show many propaganda. However when this Pool shown only 41% of Crimean wants unification with Russia, then it's also Kyiev propaganda.

Kyiev now practically push down pro Russian political opposition, under the context of national security. West try to potrait this war simply as Russian invasion. However this's also not shown real internal Political and ethnic divide in Ukraine.

This's not justification of war, but also not going to shown everything is Rossy in Ukraine especially after maydain.

You do realize than when only 41% wants to unify with russia, that means 59% either wanted to stay unified with Ukraine or had no opinion? Again, according to the numbers no regions had a majority in favor of joining russia. Just guessing but the way the quote is cut off I don't think you read that correctly.

 

[Ananda]

Just guessing but the way the quote is cut off I don't think you read that correctly.

No I read it correctly. That's why I said it is Kyiev propaganda. How they make pools on Crimea when they already under Russsia control. Same thing as when Russia makes referendum in Crimea that shown overall majority wants to joun Russia, and all West call it bias referendum.

Do you realise how bias a pools being made by Kyiev claiming area not under their control ? This is basically not much different then Russian claim, except this one is Ukraine ones. In the end all basically bias propaganda.

 

[Twain]

No I read it correctly. That's why I said it is Kyiev propaganda. How they make pools on Crimea when they already under Russsia control. Same thing as when Russia makes referendum in Crimea that shown overall majority wants to joun Russia, and all West call it bias referendum.

Do you realise how bias a pools being made by Kyiev claiming area not under their control ? This is basically not much different then Russian claim, except this one is Ukraine ones. In the end all basically bias propaganda.

Yeah, you need to look at the date of the poll, seriously.

 

[Ananda]

So, it is in 2014. That's my point,it is during maidan upheaval and during high political division climate. How they claim it is dependable especialy in Crimea? Even in 2014 before take over, Crimea always has strong Russian influences.

If this kind of pools is dependable, then Russian Crimean referendum is also gold. Well it is just me, I'm not going to believe any pools done by either Russian or Ukranian sources. But fell free to believe Ukranian ones.

 

[Twain]

So, it is in 2014. That's my point,it is during maidan upheaval and during high political division climate. How they claim it is dependable especialy in Crimea? Even in 2014 before take over, Crimea always has strong Russian influences.

If this kind of pools is dependable, then Russian Crimean referendum is also gold. Well it is just me, I'm not going to believe any pools done by either Russian or Ukranian sources. But fell free to believe Ukranian ones.

I linked 3 separate polls from different dates that all show the lack of Russian support, have you got any data to support your position that it is just propaganda or is it just your opinion? what is your position on the source of error? Is it sampling error, Order Bias, Question bias?