There are existing pipelines - they'd just need to reverse direction of flow. Prime candidate would be Transitgas, the pipeline supplying Italy with Russian gas via Germany through Switzerland. It has about half the capacity of Nordstream 1.
Russia - General Discussion.
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Another blow to petrodollar after Saudi's acceptance of yuan./cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/3O7IX3ZFBNOJLD7HIGDDSEENQE.jpg)
Putin wants 'unfriendly' countries to pay for Russian gas in roubles
Russia will seek payment in roubles for gas sold to "unfriendly" countries, President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday, and European gas prices soared on concerns the move would exacerbate the region's energy crunch.www.reuters.com
Putin wants rubles for Russian gas
Unfriendly countries will pay for natural gas in rubles, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday.www.rt.com
I think later Russia will expand this to other raw material export as well
The US just removed China tariff on 352 products
U.S. reinstates 352 product exclusions from China tariffs
The U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Wednesday it has reinstated 352 expired product exclusions from U.S. "Section 301" tariffs on Chinese imports, well short of the 549 exclusions that it was previously considering. The reinstated product exclusions will be effective retroactively...
Ever since last year inflation just start to rise in the US，there were people calling Biden to remove China tariff in order to alleviate inflation. But apparently this is not a politically popular move，Biden wants to keep this "tough on China" image. Not to mention China failed to complete US-China trade deal first phase purchase quota，so the US didn't remove China tariff at the time.
But now it seems that the US can not withstand this high inflation for much longer. So Biden has to remove the tariff without getting concession from Xi.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Biden says Russia should be booted from G-20; Russia's economy has shrunk in half since invading Ukraine: March 24 recap
President Joe Biden said Russia should be kicked out of the Group of 20 nations in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine. Thursday's recap.
www.usatoday.com
Found this quite interesting, While Biden reinstated US aim to boot Russia for G20, he acknowledged the decision must be taken by all other members. He then state if Russia still invited, then Ukraine must be invited too.
The last one perhaps I see as US bargain position to other members, especially outside their allies. For one thing China already said no to booting Russia. As the second largest economy, their voices bring some clout. I can see India and South Africa will also potentialy support Russian membership, while other like Argentina, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and even potentialy Turkey will be sitting in the fence. Those are countries that vote on 'critisise' Russia in UN however still keep business and economy ties with Russia.
Indonesia as presently holding G20 Presidency already put official position. Russia will still be invited to G20 meeting, as Presidency chair has to oblige to invites all members. However bring in Ukraine as guest can be a way out to be middle ground, as invitations for non members to attend is open to concession decision.
One thing I would like to add here. Western Politicians already put in media that Russia economy will shrunk 50% by end of this year. Well market (at least the impartial ones) does not think that yet, as it is too early to tell.
Russia GDP around close to 60% come from their Hydrocarbon and minerals export. Something that Global market will buy eventough with Western sanctions. Talk to some commodities traders, and they talk even under current condition, other Asian Markets still shown interest to Russian resources (outside those who already follow US-West lead sanctions).
Thus it is still too early to see how far the sanctions will impact Russia. Present Russia GDP is around USD 1.5 to 1.6 Trillion (depends on calculations method). Whether it will fall bellow USD 900 bio or still hover around USD 1.3 Trillion (more optimistic market prediction), still can happen. However one thing for sure, it will be contracted. The question will still be how far.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #805
Russia's GDP is not 60% hydrocarbon or mineral exports. Like most counrties, it's primarily internal production and consumption. Export in general is a minority category. This might seems like Russia isn't vulnerable to sanctions, but this isn't true. Russia is very vulnerable across a huge variety of areas, from truck production, to aviation and ship building, to infrastructural projects, to the technology sector.Biden says Russia should be booted from G-20; Russia's economy has shrunk in half since invading Ukraine: March 24 recap
President Joe Biden said Russia should be kicked out of the Group of 20 nations in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine. Thursday's recap.www.usatoday.com
Found this quite interesting, While Biden reinstated US aim to boot Russia for G20, he acknowledged the decision must be taken by all other members. He then state if Russia still invited, then Ukraine must be invited too.
The last one perhaps I see as US bargain position to other members, especially outside their allies. For one thing China already said no to booting Russia. As the second largest economy, their voices bring some clout. I can see India and South Africa will also potentialy support Russian membership, while other like Argentina, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and even potentialy Turkey will be sitting in the fence. Those are countries that vote on 'critisise' Russia in UN however still keep business and economy ties with Russia.
Indonesia as presently holding G20 Presidency already put official position. Russia will still be invited to G20 meeting, as Presidency chair has to oblige to invites all members. However bring in Ukraine as guest can be a way out to be middle ground, as invitations for non members to attend is open to concession decision.
One thing I would like to add here. Western Politicians already put in media that Russia economy will shrunk 50% by end of this year. Well market (at least the impartial ones) does not think that yet, as it is too early to tell.
Russia GDP around close to 60% come from their Hydrocarbon and minerals export. Something that Global market will buy eventough with Western sanctions. Talk to some commodities traders, and they talk even under current condition, other Asian Markets still shown interest to Russian resources (outside those who already follow US-West lead sanctions).
Thus it is still too early to see how far the sanctions will impact Russia. Present Russia GDP is around USD 1.5 to 1.6 Trillion (depends on calculations method). Whether it will fall bellow USD 900 bio or still hover around USD 1.3 Trillion (more optimistic market prediction), still can happen. However one thing for sure, it will be contracted. The question will still be how far.
KrustyKoala
New Member
China has also extended tariff exclusions "China in December extended tariff exclusions on 124 American goods to the end of June, following exemptions for 88 other US products announced in September through to April 16."But now it seems that the US can not withstand this high inflation for much longer. So Biden has to remove the tariff without getting concession from Xi.U.S. reinstates 352 product exclusions from China tariffs
The U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Wednesday it has reinstated 352 expired product exclusions from U.S. "Section 301" tariffs on Chinese imports, well short of the 549 exclusions that it was previously considering. The reinstated product exclusions will be effective retroactively...finance.yahoo.com
cdxbow
Well-Known Member
Or perhaps there has been a concession which don't know about, yet.The US just removed China tariff on 352 products
.....but now it seems that the US can not withstand this high inflation for much longer. So Biden has to remove the tariff without getting concession from Xi.U.S. reinstates 352 product exclusions from China tariffs
The U.S. Trade Representative's office said on Wednesday it has reinstated 352 expired product exclusions from U.S. "Section 301" tariffs on Chinese imports, well short of the 549 exclusions that it was previously considering. The reinstated product exclusions will be effective retroactively...
Ananda
The Bunker Group
The composition of GDP from some statistics divided for Agriculture, Industry, and Services. Services makes 50-60% of GDP.
Russia - Distribution of gross domestic product (GDP) across economic sectors 2020 | Statista
This statistic shows the distribution of the gross domestic product (GDP) across economic sectors in Russia from 2010 to 2020.
www.statista.com
However this services that according to breakdown statistics related to Commodities market or activities support commodities companies. Still after looking on that, I stand corrected, as I don't recheck again on the composition of the services. Turn out the activities related to Hydrocarbon and Minings being distributed between Industry and Services.
Agree on that, that's why Market still put it will be GDP contractions due to sanctions. However talking about 50% contractions like Western media and Politicians put, is just too far fetch as it is too early to predict. What's has been not easy to calculate yet how Russian domestic consumption resilience.
Add:
Under sanctions economy resilience sometimes shown time to time surprises, like Iran. All depends how far that particular economy can substitute the sanctions effect. Which's why 50% calculation on Russian GDP growth by sanctions can't be call reliable calculation on this early stages.
Potential downside on the next three months, can also rebounce back soon, if the economy can fast addapting to transition.
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Stoltenberg visited the NATO exercise Cold Response in Norway today, this is what he said about NATO and Sweden/Finland:
Most members of this forum is of course aware that Sweden and Finland are not covered by NATOs article 5. Still, I think it is worthwhile to highlight this, since it's so important in the current situation. It's the main reason why so many in Sweden and Finland have now changed their position and want to join NATO.
Former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb, now professor at European University Institute is very clear: He is convinced Finland will join -- not in days or weeks, but in months. ′Finland will join NATO′ - former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb | DW News
Stubb is well regarded in the Nordics, quite knowledgeable (PhD in International Relations) and never afraid to speak his mind in a very clear manner. He has always been pro-NATO, still I am surprised he is stating so clearly Finland will join. After listening to this interview, I now believe it's a very high probability Finland will join NATO this year; and if Finland decides to join, then I am almost certain Sweden will also join -- it's inconceivable that Sweden could decide to remain outside of NATO if Finland becomes NATO member, in particular given the dramatic change in the European security situation triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has made several threats against Sweden and Finland, warning them of severe consequences if they decide to join NATO, however, with a substantial amount of Russian armed forces tied up in the war in Ukraine I don't see Russia being capable of launching major aggression against either Finland or Sweden, unless Russia decides this is an "existential threat" and therefore decides to use nuclear weapons against Sweden and/or Finland, perhaps starting with tactical nukes (according to the Russian "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine). I don't think Russia will do this though -- it would just make Sweden and Finland even more determined to become NATO members.
Would NATO decide to not include Sweden/Finland into NATO if Russia were to nuke them? I think not. I think they would still let Sweden/Finland in, and let Putin know that if he dropped any more bombs on Sweden/Finland, it would mean full nuclear war between NATO and Russia. Hopefully Russia will realize this and decide not to use nuclear weapons against Sweden/Finland.
NATO - Opinion: Press conference by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Bardufoss, Norway for Exercise Cold Response, 25-Mar.-2022
Most members of this forum is of course aware that Sweden and Finland are not covered by NATOs article 5. Still, I think it is worthwhile to highlight this, since it's so important in the current situation. It's the main reason why so many in Sweden and Finland have now changed their position and want to join NATO.
Former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb, now professor at European University Institute is very clear: He is convinced Finland will join -- not in days or weeks, but in months. ′Finland will join NATO′ - former Finnish PM Alexander Stubb | DW News
Stubb is well regarded in the Nordics, quite knowledgeable (PhD in International Relations) and never afraid to speak his mind in a very clear manner. He has always been pro-NATO, still I am surprised he is stating so clearly Finland will join. After listening to this interview, I now believe it's a very high probability Finland will join NATO this year; and if Finland decides to join, then I am almost certain Sweden will also join -- it's inconceivable that Sweden could decide to remain outside of NATO if Finland becomes NATO member, in particular given the dramatic change in the European security situation triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has made several threats against Sweden and Finland, warning them of severe consequences if they decide to join NATO, however, with a substantial amount of Russian armed forces tied up in the war in Ukraine I don't see Russia being capable of launching major aggression against either Finland or Sweden, unless Russia decides this is an "existential threat" and therefore decides to use nuclear weapons against Sweden and/or Finland, perhaps starting with tactical nukes (according to the Russian "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine). I don't think Russia will do this though -- it would just make Sweden and Finland even more determined to become NATO members.
Would NATO decide to not include Sweden/Finland into NATO if Russia were to nuke them? I think not. I think they would still let Sweden/Finland in, and let Putin know that if he dropped any more bombs on Sweden/Finland, it would mean full nuclear war between NATO and Russia. Hopefully Russia will realize this and decide not to use nuclear weapons against Sweden/Finland.
Pentaprism
Member
I was referring to the US, not Ukraine, as being Russia's main adversary.
There was an interesting exchange yesterday in Mexico;
U.S. ambassador urges Mexico to side with Ukraine in Russia conflict
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The U.S. ambassador to Mexico on Thursday urged Mexican lawmakers to join the United States in supporting Kyiv against Russia'...
943jackfm.com
The Russian ambassador to Mexico had apparently being pot stirring and trying to exploit any anti-American feelings that may exist in Mexico. Nothing too surprising about that. But the American Ambassador's response was rather extraordinary. On the question of Russia and Mexico becoming close friends he said "This, sorry, can never happen. It can never happen"
For all the loathing and condemnation that has been poured onto Russia for starting this war (not unjustifiably) Salazar's comments confirm to me if the roles were reversed, and Russia was giving Mexico weapons and getting Politically close to the Mexican Government, the US would put a stop to it. By force if necessary.
On this level I believe US criticism and ostensible anger with Russia is rather hypocritical. US foreign Policy Makers would have been perfectly aware that their meddling in Ukraine would be unacceptable to the Russians and may well lead to War. But they were indifferent and reckless to the consequences to the Ukrainian people and went all in for regime change despite the obvious risks. All sorts of high profile people turned up there. Even Biden's son was in Ukraine. You would have to be naive to believe they were not trying to gain quasi control of Russia's culturally closest and most important Western neighbour.
I think this is instructive to anybody who can't understand how this war started. Geopolitics is cut throat and if an adversary is achieving objectives that are not in your interests you have to consider doing something about it. Whether you make the right call is another matter entirely.
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Pentaprism
Member
My understanding is it means most Insurers are not providing insurance for flights to or from Russia at the moment. Not sure if this is related to Sanctions or War Risk but anyway if you lease a Commercial Aircraft and the Leaser who owns it is insured with a Company that is not covering flights to and from Russia you can't legally fly their Aircraft there.
Most Commercial Aircraft are leased but most Airlines also own at least some of their own Aircraft. If an Airline owns an Aircraft it can choose to still fly it to Russia. This is a bit reckless if their Insurance Policy is not covering Russia atm but it's their decision. Or they can go to another Insurer who agrees to cover it. If Vietnam really wants to continue to serve Russia the Vietnam Government could potentially set up an Insurance Company and insure a couple of their Aircraft so they can continue to provide the service. Or they can just wait until the sanctions/embargo lifts.
Airlines from Kazahkstan have stopped flying there for the same reason.
The Middle Eastern Carriers have not stopped flying to Russia. This suggests they have their own Insurance Companies who are not affected by the embargoes.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Biden expects that Indonesia will not invite Russia for the next G20 meeting. And if Indonesia still invites Russia, then he demands that Indonesia also invites Ukraina. The problem is that Ukraina is not a member of the G20.
www.cnnindonesia.com
Edit.
I just saw Ananda already shared about this in post #804.
Biden Mau G20 Hadirkan Ukraina Jika Indonesia Undang Rusia
Presiden Amerika Serikat, Joe Biden merasa Ukraina perlu diundang meski tidak masuk dalam daftar anggota negara G20.
www.cnnindonesia.com
Edit.
I just saw Ananda already shared about this in post #804.
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On what grounds do you claim that the US was responsible for regime change in the Ukraine? IIRC Yanukovych was impeached by the Parliament with a significant majority after he refused to begin negotiations for Ukrainian entry to the EU as directed by an overwhelming Parliamentary vote. So contrary to popular belief it wasn't a revolution or regime change. In fact it was Putin interfering by pressuring Yanukovych not to proceed with the EU negotiations that caused his impeachment. The Parliament didn't want to be beholden to Putin and Russia at all because they wanted to be free of Russia. So I would suggest that you do some proper research and stop believing Putin's lies. If it took me 15 minutes the other day to find the appropriate info then I am sure that you can do the same.I was referring to the US, not Ukraine, as being Russia's main adversary.
There was an interesting exchange yesterday in Mexico;
U.S. ambassador urges Mexico to side with Ukraine in Russia conflict
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - The U.S. ambassador to Mexico on Thursday urged Mexican lawmakers to join the United States in supporting Kyiv against Russia'...
The Russian ambassador to Mexico had apparently being pot stirring and trying to exploit any anti-American feelings that may exist in Mexico. Nothing too surprising about that. But the American Ambassador's response was rather extraordinary. On the question of Russia and Mexico becoming close friends he said "This, sorry, can never happen. It can never happen"
For all the loathing and condemnation that has been poured onto Russia for starting this war (not unjustifiably) Salazar's comments confirm to me if the roles were reversed, and Russia was giving Mexico weapons and getting Politically close to the Mexican Government, the US would put a stop to it. By force if necessary.
On this level I believe US criticism and ostensible anger with Russia is rather hypocritical. US foreign Policy Makers would have been perfectly aware that their meddling in Ukraine would be unacceptable to the Russians and may well lead to War. But they were indifferent and reckless to the consequences to the Ukrainian people and went all in for regime change despite the obvious risks. All sorts of high profile people turned up there. Even Biden's son was in Ukraine. You would have to be naive to believe they were not trying to gain quasi control of Russia's culturally closest and most important Western neighbour.
I think this is instructive to anybody who can't understand how this war started. Geopolitics is cut throat and if an adversary is achieving objectives that are not in your interests you have to consider doing something about it. Whether you make the right call is another matter entirely.
Not really because non G20 nations can be invited to attend. NZ was invited to attend one by Australia.Biden expects that Indonesia will not invite Russia for the next G20 meeting. And if Indonesia still invites Russia, then he demands that Indonesia also invites Ukraina. The problem is that Ukraina is not a member of the G20.
Biden Mau G20 Hadirkan Ukraina Jika Indonesia Undang Rusia
Presiden Amerika Serikat, Joe Biden merasa Ukraina perlu diundang meski tidak masuk dalam daftar anggota negara G20.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
As I have put in my previous Post. Non G20 countries from time to time getting invitation to attend G20 meeting. So inviting Ukraine can be done as invitation, and G20 has precedent on this.
However it is also has to be consentsus from all members. US seems put it as potential middle ground for G20 meeting. I do can see some reservation from others non US and the allies, as inviting Ukraine will derail the meeting from economics into Ukraine-Russia war.
The meeting still later half of this year, and everything can change depending the situation on the ground.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
That's true.
Everything can happen in six months (the meeting is planned for end october, right?) Maybe there will be a new Covid-variant which forces the G20 to cancel the whole meeting. I actually dont understand why they have to do it in Bali, the whole island will stuck, and the population and tourists will get a lot of disturbances because of 20 head of states and their staff. It would be better to have such meetings in uninhabited islands/areas.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Because it's Bali. It's Indonesian face on tourism, and what better then bring Indonesian face on tourism then Bali. They will shown Bali already back to normal capacity as tourists destination.
G20 meeting always been used by any countries that hold presidency the showcase their best face. However also to shown their Presidency as impartial ones for every members.
Anything can happen before G20 meeting, however for me what Biden put in his statement for G20 is; "I want to boot out Putin, but I'm willing to compromise with other members by you all agree to invite Ukraine too as invited guest". Perhaps realisation that outside his own allies circles, others are less reluctance to follow US and Allies treatment to Russia.
Capt. Ironpants
Active Member
@Sandhi Yudha and @Ananda The way the world is going right now, in my most zany moment, I'd say find an excuse to divert the meeting to Lombok, stop feeding the Komodo dragons immediately so they will be plenty hungry by then, and let nature take its course. Maybe a whole new crop of leaders could do a better job of sorting out this mess. Of course I don't really mean it, and my most zany moment is passing away now.
Pentaprism
Member
I've never had need to listen to Putin on the subject of US Foreign Policy. There is plenty of material published independent of Russia on the subject. It's undeniable that while the Ukrainian Parliament did the impeaching of Yanukovych, the US was involved up to it's eyeballs with Diplomatic and Financial Support for the Colour revolutions and the Maidan revolution.
Ukraine crisis: Transcript of leaked Nuland-Pyatt call
A transcript of the alleged conversation between Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine, Geoffrey Pyatt discussing the crisis in Ukraine.
www.bbc.com
A US-Backed, Far Right–Led Revolution in Ukraine Helped Bring Us to the Brink of War
In 2014 Ukraine, great power gamesmanship, righteous anger at a corrupt status quo, and opportunistic far-right extremists toppled the government in the Maidan Revolution. Today’s crisis in Ukraine can’t be understood without understanding Maidan.
jacobinmag.com
Free Market Democracy Promotion
There’s one more critical piece to the Euromaidan puzzle: the role of Western governments.
For decades, Washington and allied governments have pursued their strategic and economic interests under the cover of promoting democracy and liberal values abroad. Sometimes that’s meant funneling money to violent reactionaries like the Nicaraguan contras, and sometimes it’s meant supporting benign pro-democracy movements like those in Ukraine.
“External actors have always played an important role in shaping and supporting civil society in Ukraine,” Ukrainian scholar Iryna Solonenko wrote in 2015, pointing to the EU and the United States, through agencies like the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and US Agency for International Development (USAID), whose Kyiv headquarters were in the same compound as the US embassy. “One can argue that without this external support, which has been the major source of funding for Ukrainian civil society since independence, Ukrainian civil society would not have become what it now is.”
This was the case in the 2004–5 Orange Revolution, where foreign NGOs changed little about Ukraine’s corruption and authoritarianism, but achieved the crucial goal of nudging Ukraine’s foreign policy westward. As the liberal Center for American Progress put it that year:
US officials, unhappy with the scuttled EU deal, saw a similar chance in the Maidan protests. Just two months before they broke out, the NED’s then president, pointing to Yanukovych’s European outreach, wrote that “the opportunities are considerable, and there are important ways Washington could help.” In practice, this meant funding groups like New Citizen, which the Financial Times reported “played a big role in getting the protest up and running,” led by a pro-EU opposition figure. Journalist Mark Ames discovered the organization had received hundreds of thousands of dollars from US democracy promotion initiatives.
While it may be a long time before we know its full extent, Washington took an even more direct role once the turmoil started. Senators John McCain and Chris Murphy met with Svoboda’s fascist leader, standing shoulder to shoulder with him as they announced their support to the protesters, while US assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland handed out sandwiches to them. To understand the provocative nature of such moves, you only need to remember the establishment outrage over the mere idea Moscow had used troll farms to voice support for Black Lives Matter protests.
Later, a leaked phone call showed Nuland and the US ambassador to Ukraine maneuvering to shape the post-Maidan government. “Fuck the EU,” Nuland told him, over its less aggressive intervention into the country. “Yats is the guy who’s got the economic experience,” she said, referring to opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who backed the devastating neoliberal policies demanded by the West. You can probably guess who became prime minister in the post-Maidan interim government.
It’s an overstatement to say, as some critics have charged, that Washington orchestrated the Maidan uprising. But there’s no doubt US officials backed and exploited it for their own ends".
Democratisation, NGOs and "colour revolutions"
www.opendemocracy.net
I think my research stands up just fine thanks very much. But perhaps you would like to show us why you don't think the US is involved in the Revolutions? That would be interesting.
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You know that's cruelty to animals. That lot will give the Komodo dragons belly aches for ages and probably dysentery as well.