NZDF General discussion thread

[Stuart M]

The N.Z. Government response is pretty much in line with what the Australian Government is saying. A very welcome show of solidarity! However, I would think the Australian Government would be particularly concerned that just one day before this leak, they had agreed to provide more financial and other aid to the Solomon's. What I am seeing is a Solomon's Government welcoming whatever economic benefits that will come their way, from whomever is offering it, regardless of previous historical ties. They know what they are doing. They are playing off China's regional ambitions, with Australian and NZ fears of what those ambitions mean in a regional strategic sense. It is 'wedge' foreign relations. It is very serious stuff, and the current Solomon's Government knows it. There is not too much we can do, unless we stump up with a far better offer that gives The Solomon's long term economic benefit, and long term security. There can be a win win out of this. The basing arrangements that China are seeking, and which bring them close to Australia's doorstep, with all that entails for the surrounding region, can just as easily be reversed. What if Australia and NZ had basing arrangements in the Solomon's, not China? Where there's a will!

The problem with this is, not only that that China appears to have out manoeuvred AU and NZ, but that China will always have far deeper pockets than either nation.
The problem for the Solomon's is that once China is 'in' they may feel so at home they won't leave, and with those deep pockets they will always be able to buy off... Sorry "wedge", the Solomon's government into ensure their stay is as comfortable and as permanent as possible.

 

[Arclighy]

The problem with this is, not only that that China appears to have out manoeuvred AU and NZ, but that China will always have far deeper pockets than either nation.
The problem for the Solomon's is that once China is 'in' they may feel so at home they won't leave, and with those deep pockets they will always be able to buy off... Sorry "wedge", the Solomon's government into ensure their stay is as comfortable and as permanent as possible.

I don't disagree with you. But what are the options here? Not do anything or respond in a materially significant way? Australia has shown in the past that it is prepared to spend money to keep China out of such close proximity and threatening its national interests. You may recall the lengths it went to to Keep Huawei out of the Solomon's submarine internet cable. IIRC it wasn't cheap. We need to respond quickly and seriously.

 

[Stuart M]

I don't disagree with you. But what are the options here? Not do anything or respond in a materially significant way? Australia has shown in the past that it is prepared to spend money to keep China out of such close proximity and threatening its national interests. You may recall the lengths it went to to Keep Huawei out of the Solomon's submarine internet cable. IIRC it wasn't cheap. We need to respond quickly and seriously.

So what does 'seriously' mean in this context if buying them off is not an option? I come back to what I have said above, NZ and AU have been out manoeuvred, and we cannot match Chinas depth of pocket. That NZ&AU might have prevailed in other situations indicates that the circumstances were different in some respect.

Of course this agreement is not one that has been ratified, so in theory there is hope for a positive outcome but as to what the alternatives are I cannot say, I'm not a diplomat in the Solomon's, other than to repeat that a bidding war is not one we can win.

Really though I don't know enough to comment on the Solomon's internal politics, but I will say that
ultimately the Solomon's are an independent nation, we cannot make them comply with our preferences.

 

[ngatimozart]

It's not just the Solomons either. Bougainville is going through the process of gaining independence from PNG. It's already held the referendum which was overwhelmingly in favour of Bougainvillian independence, so now there is the negotiations with the PNG govt to get approval through the PNG Parliament. The CCP / PRC will be wanting to get its fingers on Bougainville because of the copper mine there. Australia has managed to keep them out of the Manus anchorage which is the best anchorage in the South Pacific.

Don't forget that NZ has Realm territory well within H-6 range of the Solomon Islands to. Also a PLA base in the Solomons puts them astride the Australian and NZ ALOC & SLOC to North America and Asia. It means because of the decision to close the Marsden Point refinery, all our aviation, ship, and vehicle fuel supplies will have to sail past the Solomons.

 

[Stuart M]

It's not just the Solomons either. Bougainville is going through the process of gaining independence from PNG. It's already held the referendum which was overwhelmingly in favour of Bougainvillian independence, so now there is the negotiations with the PNG govt to get approval through the PNG Parliament. The CCP / PRC will be wanting to get its fingers on Bougainville because of the copper mine there. Australia has managed to keep them out of the Manus anchorage which is the best anchorage in the South Pacific.

Don't forget that NZ has Realm territory well within H-6 range of the Solomon Islands to. Also a PLA base in the Solomons puts them astride the Australian and NZ ALOC & SLOC to North America and Asia. It means because of the decision to close the Marsden Point refinery, all our aviation, ship, and vehicle fuel supplies will have to sail past the Solomons.

From what I've seen it's not just the Realm territories, Chinese bases in the Solomon's puts NZ itself inside H6 ( with tanker support presumably)stand off range. Chinese air and naval bases in the South Pacific presents a threat that NZ has never faced before, direct aerial attack alongside naval blockade, and NZ has willingly abandoned its capability to prevent it.

So if Marsden was still refining, so what, with that threat?

Honaria to Wellington 3826km as the H6 flies.

Benign strategic environment.

Australia and the Growing Reach of China’s Military | Lowy Institute

Beijing’s maritime and aerospace capabilities will have serious implications in the event of an Indo-Pacific power play.

www.lowyinstitute.org

 

[recce.k1]

A measured response by NZGov, I think, as the agreement has not been ratified.


----------------------
"If genuine, this agreement would be very concerning. Such agreements will always be the right of any sovereign country to enter into.

"However, developments within this purported agreement could destabilise the current institutions and arrangements that have long underpinned the Pacific region's security.

"This would not benefit New Zealand or our Pacific neighbours."
-----------------

The article does reference the 2021 defence assessment, which is good in a paper like The Herald given the somewhat left wing orientation of its readership.
------------------------------
"New Zealand's Defence Assessment 2021 warns of risks associated with China's military ambitions in the Pacific, alongside a range of other countries, including the United States.

The assessment warns the "most-threatening" potential development included a military base of dual-use facility being established by "a state that does not share New Zealand's values and security interests".

"Such a development would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region," the assessment stated.

"In addition to crowding out access to limited Pacific infrastructure, such a military facility would enable a greater quantity, quality and diversity of military capabilities to operate in and through the region, as well as potentially supporting grey zone and other activities counter to New Zealand's interests.""
----------------

Nanaia Mahuta says China-Solomon Islands security deal 'very concerning' if genuine - NZ Herald

I would hope that some serious thinking is going on in NZ government defence and foreign policy offices over the next wee while.

Agree it was a measured response. This is where Foreign Minister Mahuta is in a good position to lend credibility to calls for the other Pacific Islands Forum members to ensure the regional security status quo is maintained (by both PIF group and individual head of state dialogue with PM Sogavare). Sogavare also faces opposition from within the SI from many fronts so there will also be internal pressures. Mahuta shouldn't have any timidity raising "concerns directly with China" (from her indigenous perspective the slights from the CCP are an insult to wider Polynesian and Melanesian harmony and values. Of course how the CCP react is their choice).

I would also say Canberra has a good handle on the issue and will be working hard behind the scenes to solidify and strengthen efforts to counter the CCP's influence directly with the Sogavare government.

Decision to bring China’s military into the South Pacific in the hands of Solomon Islands PM | The Strategist

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has a Chinese-government-proposed text for a security agreement between his country and China, which is apparently being considered by his government. The draft agreement leaked to the media is ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

 

[recce.k1]

The N.Z. Government response is pretty much in line with what the Australian Government is saying. A very welcome show of solidarity! However, I would think the Australian Government would be particularly concerned that just one day before this leak, they had agreed to provide more financial and other aid to the Solomon's. What I am seeing is a Solomon's Government welcoming whatever economic benefits that will come their way, from whomever is offering it, regardless of previous historical ties. They know what they are doing. They are playing off China's regional ambitions, with Australian and NZ fears of what those ambitions mean in a regional strategic sense. It is 'wedge' foreign relations. It is very serious stuff, and the current Solomon's Government knows it. There is not too much we can do, unless we stump up with a far better offer that gives The Solomon's long term economic benefit, and long term security. There can be a win win out of this. The basing arrangements that China are seeking, and which bring them close to Australia's doorstep, with all that entails for the surrounding region, can just as easily be reversed. What if Australia and NZ had basing arrangements in the Solomon's, not China? Where there's a will!

Fully agree, all I'll add is I cannot see the US silently accepting any CCP basing proposals as it is a threat to their presence in Guam, Australia etc, and connections and supply lines back to the continental US itself on its west coast. Interesting times ahead for everyone.

 

[Stuart M]

Agree it was a measured response. This is where Foreign Minister Mahuta is in a good position to lend credibility to calls for the other Pacific Islands Forum members to ensure the regional security status quo is maintained (by both PIF group and individual head of state dialogue with PM Sogavare). Sogavare also faces opposition from within the SI from many fronts so there will also be internal pressures. Mahuta shouldn't have any timidity raising "concerns directly with China" (from her indigenous perspective the slights from the CCP are an insult to wider Polynesian and Melanesian harmony and values. Of course how the CCP react is their choice).

I would also say Canberra has a good handle on the issue and will be working hard behind the scenes to solidify and strengthen efforts to counter the CCP's influence directly with the Sogavare government.

Decision to bring China’s military into the South Pacific in the hands of Solomon Islands PM | The Strategist

Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare has a Chinese-government-proposed text for a security agreement between his country and China, which is apparently being considered by his government. The draft agreement leaked to the media is ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Agreed, yes an excellent time for NZ to exhibit leadership on this with an eye on future issues of a similar nature. Mind you, I would think the example of the Ukraine war should be uppermost in minds in a number of capitals in the Pacific when dealing with China.

 

[recce.k1]

The problem with this is, not only that that China appears to have out manoeuvred AU and NZ, but that China will always have far deeper pockets than either nation.
The problem for the Solomon's is that once China is 'in' they may feel so at home they won't leave, and with those deep pockets they will always be able to buy off... Sorry "wedge", the Solomon's government into ensure their stay is as comfortable and as permanent as possible.

Whilst I don't disagree (for sure great observations) I think we shouldn't underestimate the undercurrent of resentment of some of the locals and neighboring island/ethnic groups of CCP activities in their "lands" (I'm meaning the commerce side of things eg immigrants from mainland China setting up shop and the locals ending up owing credit to these "outsiders". Or the lack of jobs for locals as "overseas workers" FIFO on infrastructure projects etc).

(I realise this is a delicate if not difficult subject to tread carefully as many nations including ours rely on immigration and entrepreneurship, and we generally welcome it ourselves (so let's not be hypocrites ourselves etc). However if what I've read from time to time is a fair representation then the issue for smaller island nations (like the Solomons ... or Tonga or other such places even elsewhere) it's the proportion of new immigrants that setup new or take over local businesses).

When there is resentment there can be conflict, as happens periodically in the SI (which PIF members mop up from time to time), and frankly if the CCP did manage to gain a foothold I have my doubts as to it's longevity (unless there are genuine attempts to "suppress" the locals, as some of whom are very willing to fight), as there would be pushback and undermining of any new regime. But do we need this, no we don't, let's see how the Sogavare government responds to concerns by its own citizens and its neighbors!

 

[recce.k1]

Foreign Minister 'very concerned' by Solomon Islands' reported security deal with China

The deal would reportedly allow China to deploy forces to protect Chinese personnel and major projects in the Islands.

www.newshub.co.nz

Well are you concerned enough to up the defence budget... whats that?... no not really... didn't think so...

Ha, another question one could ask of them is .... so is this really a good time to be selling two IPV vessels and a portion of the LAV fleet?

 

[CJohn]

Ha, another question one could ask of them is .... so is this really a good time to be selling two IPV vessels and a portion of the LAV fleet?

Some times a slap in the face can be a good thing, the outcome of the recent meeting of Australian and New Zealand Defmins would be most interesting. They would have had advanced awareness of the concerning situation.

 

[Stuart M]

Whilst I don't disagree (for sure great observations) I think we shouldn't underestimate the undercurrent of resentment of some of the locals and neighboring island/ethnic groups of CCP activities in their "lands" (I'm meaning the commerce side of things eg immigrants from mainland China setting up shop and the locals ending up owing credit to these "outsiders". Or the lack of jobs for locals as "overseas workers" FIFO on infrastructure projects etc).

(I realise this is a delicate if not difficult subject to tread carefully as many nations including ours rely on immigration and entrepreneurship, and we generally welcome it ourselves (so let's not be hypocrites ourselves etc). However if what I've read from time to time is a fair representation then the issue for smaller island nations (like the Solomons ... or Tonga or other such places even elsewhere) it's the proportion of new immigrants that setup new or take over local businesses).

When there is resentment there can be conflict, as happens periodically in the SI (which PIF members mop up from time to time), and frankly if the CCP did manage to gain a foothold I have my doubts as to it's longevity (unless there are genuine attempts to "suppress" the locals, as some of whom are very willing to fight), as there would be pushback and undermining of any new regime. But do we need this, no we don't, let's see how the Sogavare government responds to concerns by its own citizens and its neighbors!

You raise very valid points, to which I would observe that China has displayed a very astute capacity for applying the old Brit methods of divide and conquer, and I fully expect them to learn and apply lessons.
But, they don't have a foothold yet, so it remains to be seen what will happen.

 

[Stuart M]

Ha, another question one could ask of them is .... so is this really a good time to be selling two IPV vessels and a portion of the LAV fleet?

Well the Ukraine war might suggest that any warship should have competent anti air defence systems, a nation must have the same and attrition reserves are absolutely vital to survival.

 

[John Fedup]

I think many donor nations to the Ukraine are now painfully aware of how important decent stocks of military kit are. Like PPE during a pandemic, inventory is essential as stuff is difficult to obtain in a crisis.

 

[Stuart M]

I think many donor nations to the Ukraine are now painfully aware of how important decent stocks of military kit are. Like PPE during a pandemic, inventory is essential as stuff is difficult to obtain in a crisis.

A UK/Empire lesson from both world wars, but since forgotten. A shame really, as it costs lives.

 

[Gracie1234]

The move by China in the Pacific is well-timed, this was articulated in the security review as something that might happen, and here we are. It is underway.
Hopefully, this will be the wake-up call our govt needs to actually start changing their position and doing something about it.
Agree, the Def Min meeting AU-NZ would have been very interesting. NZ can no longer hide behind, we can not afford it and do not see the threat.
More than likely China wants this base to support grey zone activities in the wider Pacific, they seem to be using a very similar playbook as in the South China Sea, nothing to see here until it is too late.
I agree, NZ needs probably an investment of another 20B on top of the planned 20B to get into a state that is appropriate for our size. This would need to go to increasing mass(ships, planes, people) and lethality(capability).

 

[Shanesworld]

The move by China in the Pacific is well-timed, this was articulated in the security review as something that might happen, and here we are. It is underway.
Hopefully, this will be the wake-up call our govt needs to actually start changing their position and doing something about it.
Agree, the Def Min meeting AU-NZ would have been very interesting. NZ can no longer hide behind, we can not afford it and do not see the threat.
More than likely China wants this base to support grey zone activities in the wider Pacific, they seem to be using a very similar playbook as in the South China Sea, nothing to see here until it is too late.
I agree, NZ needs probably an investment of another 20B on top of the planned 20B to get into a state that is appropriate for our size. This would need to go to increasing mass(ships, planes, people) and lethality(capability).

I am unsure on many aspects if where the govt should focus on the nzdf but the 3 raf c130j's with the elint additions seem like a quick, easy, needed and available option to be pursued with vigour.

 

[ngatimozart]

I am unsure on many aspects if where the govt should focus on the nzdf but the 3 raf c130j's with the elint additions seem like a quick, easy, needed and available option to be pursued with vigour.

Possibly but a couple or three more P-8A and four MQ-9B SeaGuardians would be better. Just saying.

 

[Shanesworld]

Possibly but a couple or three more P-8A and four MQ-9B SeaGuardians would be better. Just saying.

I agree but these are available (last i heard) and the Eears on them are very good. And theres a clear documented need for more air lift, they not a "warplane" and not a "killer drone" so Greens will be tying therself in knots trying to make themselves relevant about it.

 

[ngatimozart]

I agree but these are available (last i heard) and the Eears on them are very good. And theres a clear documented need for more air lift, they not a "warplane" and not a "killer drone" so Greens will be tying therself in knots trying to make themselves relevant about it.

That's easy just tell the Greens that they'll be protecting the climate.