General Aviation Thread

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Boeing 737-800 from China Eastern Airlines is crashed in the Chinese provincie Guangxi.
Eventough it is not MAX, but still another 737. Boeing better send team to China, to shown their seriousness to help on the matter. It's off course too early to now what happen, but better they are handling good PR now, then resort blaiming the pilots and the airlines like they did when first MAX crash happen.


The footage of the crash from this media, is not good. China Eastern have good safety record.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Eventough it is not MAX, but still another 737. Boeing better send team to China, to shown their seriousness to help on the matter. It's off course too early to now what happen, but better they are handling good PR now, then resort blaiming the pilots and the airlines like they did when first MAX crash happen.

The footage of the crash from this media, is not good. China Eastern have good safety record.
Yep, not good and far to early to suggest a cause for the accident. The non MAX B737-800 is generally a pretty safe aircraft as well.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The non MAX B737-800 is generally a pretty safe aircraft as well.
There's other video circulating on line, claimed to be the plane crashing free fall on high speed. However I'm not puting it, as unlike the video above, it is still unconfirmed ones. However judging from the video above it is shown charateristics of other high speed crash that I've seen before. It is just too much fire burning.
 
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ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There's other video circulating on line, claimed to be the plane crashing free fall on high speed. However I'm not puting it, as unlike the video above, it is still unconfirmed ones. However judging from the video above it is shown charateristics of other high speed crash that I've seen before. It is just too much fire burning.
I have seen that other video and if it is valid then it was a terminal vertical dive. We will have to await official crash findings before we will know the cause.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
There's other video circulating on line, claimed to be the plane crashing free fall on high speed. However I'm not puting it, as unlike the video above, it is still unconfirmed ones. However judging from the video above it is shown charateristics of other high speed crash that I've seen before. It is just too much fire burning.
Good decision to not post that video, its seems to be a hoax/lie.


I have seen that other video and if it is valid then it was a terminal vertical dive. We will have to await official crash findings before we will know the cause.
An aircraft in mountainous terrain, i am afraid there will be no survivors.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Air Canada has decided on Airbus 321neoXLR. Their last big acquisition was 737MAX. As Boeing doesn’t have a competitive option this acquisition can’t really be considered a loss.

 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
As expected there are no survivors.
The only good news is that both recorders (voice recorder and flight data recorder) are found.
 
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Ananda

The Bunker Group
As Boeing doesn’t have a competitive option this acquisition can’t really be considered a loss.
The competition from Boeing, the MAX 10 still having problem with FAA licensing.


Boeing as usual still try to get some waiver. However FAA having burned by MAX before seems reluctance to give that for Boeing right now. MAX 10 will have less range then A321 Neo LR/XLR. However A321 neo LR/XLR have two auxiliaries tank, while MAX 10 only one.

Boeing already have plan for ER version for 787 9/10. They call it HGW (High Gross Weight) version, to compete with both longbrange version of A330 neo (for 787 9 HGW) and A350 (for 787 10 HGW).

Theoritically they can also build MAX 10 HGW. However even present MAX 10 still facing licensing problem, thus further HGW version for MAX will still years away. So for time being A321 neo LR/XLR are still without direct competitors.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
The competition from Boeing, the MAX 10 still having problem with FAA licensing.


Boeing as usual still try to get some waiver. However FAA having burned by MAX before seems reluctance to give that for Boeing right now. MAX 10 will have less range then A321 Neo LR/XLR. However A321 neo LR/XLR have two auxiliaries tank, while MAX 10 only one.

Boeing already have plan for ER version for 787 9/10. They call it HGW (High Gross Weight) version, to compete with both longbrange version of A330 neo (for 787 9 HGW) and A350 (for 787 10 HGW).

Theoritically they can also build MAX 10 HGW. However even present MAX 10 still facing licensing problem, thus further HGW version for MAX will still years away. So for time being A321 neo LR/XLR are still without direct competitors.
From a marketing perspective, any further derivatives of the 737 seems to be a non-starter, sort of like lipstick on a pig at this point. Given the geopolitical situation perhaps investment in defence products makes more sense than a A321neoXLR which might not have much sales potential by the time it arrives.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Well at least Russia will have replacement for those 737 and A320 they have to settle with the lessor. Off course not until the end of this decade at least.

Russian online 'media' talk that the version of MC-21 300 with more Western components will be drop for MC-21 310 with Russian avionics and PD-14 engine.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

In paper to increase production of TU-214 or IL-96, they still can use existing facilities. It is also practically all Russian system and engine. Both using PS-90 engine that being also used by latest version of IL-76 heavy transport.

This can be a stop gap until more MC-21 can be produce, as more modern and heavily composite materials MC-21 has to be produce on diferent new facility.

Problem is always how to increase the production capacities. Even on existing production infrastructure.
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member

In paper to increase production of TU-214 or IL-96, they still can use existing facilities. It is also practically all Russian system and engine. Both using PS-90 engine that being also used by latest version of IL-76 heavy transport.

This can be a stop gap until more MC-21 can be produce, as more modern and heavily composite materials MC-21 has to be produce on diferent new facility.

Problem is always how to increase the production capacities. Even on existing production infrastructure.
Thank you for sharing.
The Il-96 was recently taken out of production, but I already thought about the idea that the Russian government and airlines should order more Tu-204/-214 aircrafts. The SSJ-100 has too many Western components, but the Tu-204/-214 is a good alternative for the A320/321 and the 737...btw, it doesn't have the MCAS installed.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
Yes, IL-96 will be hard sell to Airlines, but TU-204/214 actually have attractiveness to sell. IL-96 taken out from production, but they are actualy have IL-96 400M that supposedly in planning to continue in production.

I'm quite surprise that Russian after 2014 did not push their airlines for more TU-204/214. Still it seems they are betting on their domestic airlines to take MC-21 as replacement for 320 and 737. It is just not coming as fast as they hope.

However with sanctions (and I don't see it will subside, no matter what's the development and result in the ground of Ukraine War), they need something to come out from production line. MC-21 still need time to be in production, let alone full production phase. Their wide body JV with China CR-929 will take more time.

So TU-214 and IL-96 400M need to be churn out to supplement SSJ 100. No matter how many those Boeing and Airbus in their fleet (both the lease and Owned ones), they will face attrition deteriorating just like Iranian Boeing and Airbus under sanction. Yes Iran still can keep some of them flying, but continue in detoriation phase.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
This article discusses the possible restoration of the An-225. Based on some pictures released earlier this restoration doesn’t seem viable. IIRC there was a second partially built An-225. Perhaps this is a more viable starting point for a restoration.

 

OldTex

Well-Known Member
This article discusses the possible restoration of the An-225. Based on some pictures released earlier this restoration doesn’t seem viable. IIRC there was a second partially built An-225. Perhaps this is a more viable starting point for a restoration.

The Antonov company has been able to survey the destruction at Hostomel. (Antonov survey) The loss of the AN-225 Mriyawill not be recoverable. One of the photos in the report appears to show adamaged AN-124-100M-150. The question is what is the status of the other 6 (or 7) other AN-124s that were operated by Antonov Airlines (used by many EU countries). Perhaps a better effort might be to assist Antonov with repairing and adding additional AN-124s (especially as there are virtually no other heavy lift aircraft available for lease to the West).
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The Antonov company has been able to survey the destruction at Hostomel. (Antonov survey) The loss of the AN-225 Mriyawill not be recoverable. One of the photos in the report appears to show adamaged AN-124-100M-150. The question is what is the status of the other 6 (or 7) other AN-124s that were operated by Antonov Airlines (used by many EU countries). Perhaps a better effort might be to assist Antonov with repairing and adding additional AN-124s (especially as there are virtually no other heavy lift aircraft available for lease to the West).
It is obvious that the An-225 is unrepairable, but how is the condition of the second unfinished An-225? Maybe the outer wing parts and engine parts of the destroyed An-225 can be used to finish the second one.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It is obvious that the An-225 is unrepairable, but how is the condition of the second unfinished An-225? Maybe the outer wing parts and engine parts of the destroyed An-225 can be used to finish the second one.
I've posted a video in the Russian - Ukraine War thread that is a walkaround of the Antonov Airlines base at Gostomel. It shows a fair bit of the damage. Even if they could get the remaining AN124-100 airworthy they won't be able to legally fly it because the Russians have stolen all of its documentation, flight records, technical records, manuals, tools, everything. The one in the hangar wasn't damaged because it had been stripped down undergoing deep maintenance.

They have looked at the AN225 to see what's usable. The rear part of the fuselage including the tailplane, port wing and most likely the starboard wing, three possibly four of the engines, four maybe five of the main landing gear assemblies. Again all of its documentation and tools have been stolen.
The Antonov company has been able to survey the destruction at Hostomel. (Antonov survey) The loss of the AN-225 Mriyawill not be recoverable. One of the photos in the report appears to show adamaged AN-124-100M-150. The question is what is the status of the other 6 (or 7) other AN-124s that were operated by Antonov Airlines (used by many EU countries). Perhaps a better effort might be to assist Antonov with repairing and adding additional AN-124s (especially as there are virtually no other heavy lift aircraft available for lease to the West).
Maybe go one better and build new ones using modern materials, engines, avionics etc. It could be a special project across a group of countries.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I've posted a video in the Russian - Ukraine War thread that is a walkaround of the Antonov Airlines base at Gostomel. It shows a fair bit of the damage. Even if they could get the remaining AN124-100 airworthy they won't be able to legally fly it because the Russians have stolen all of its documentation, flight records, technical records, manuals, tools, everything. The one in the hangar wasn't damaged because it had been stripped down undergoing deep maintenance.

They have looked at the AN225 to see what's usable. The rear part of the fuselage including the tailplane, port wing and most likely the starboard wing, three possibly four of the engines, four maybe five of the main landing gear assemblies. Again all of its documentation and tools have been stolen.

Maybe go one better and build new ones using modern materials, engines, avionics etc. It could be a special project across a group of countries.
A project for new builds would need customers first, a possibility for An124s, for An225s, not so much. That being said, I would still like to see a An225 land in Toronto again.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
project for new builds would need customers first, a possibility for An124s, for An225s, not so much.
It can only happens if Antonov being taken over by either Airbus Military, Boeing or LM. Taking over in here means they take over the ownership of the project, just like Airbus taking over C series to become A220.

Antonov company still there, but even before this war practically they can't even fund any new project launch as sustain business project.

They are already working finding new partners, from Saudi, Turkey and also talk with China. However nothing come to real project yet. That's with situation before War. Still rumours in Chinese forums that China still interest for something larger then Y-20.

Thus if US and Euro did not want to let China scoop in what's left of Antonov brain resources capital (because that's what's left of Antonov now), then better subsidized one of the big defense players in West, and finance new project with Antonov.

AN-124 only can work for specializes freighter market, regular freighter market will not want them, cause it's more efficient to convert existing Airliners or buy new build freighter version. This's going to be only for limited population and don't think will be attractive commercially.

So had to be Government incentive to support that, either for specializes freighter market or extreme load military lift (which are both limited). It will not going to be commercial success though. Thus in the end it will be back to whoever still has attraction to build AN-124 version for their military and want to Finance that.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
@Ananda …yep, minimal Western interest unless China actually pursues Antonov. Even then, LM, Boeing, and Airbus would want their respective governments to subsidize any investment.
 
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