I just don't see a Puppet Government happening. Eastern Ukraine maybe and leave the decimated scraps and blame it all on Ukrainian resistance. As others have mentioned here that's a huge operation to occupy and control the whole of Ukraine with the current Russian military presence no way, that will be a long drawn out conflict over years.
liveuamap.com
To me, it seems that the war is already protracted and Russians are behind schedule. According to one source, Russia had set an objective of completely occupying Kyiv, if not the entire Ukraine, by the 2nd of March. That clearly has not happened. Russia might be in for a long haul of urban warfare unless it is able to cut off Ukraine from the rest of Europe and also impose a no-fly zone over it. So far the performance of Russian forces and their weapons platforms have not been impressive (judging purely on what we have seen on media). This makes one wonder if Russia is up to the task of achieving its war objectives in time, if at all.
Doubt it. A truce would be totally inconsistent with Putin's aims and would be ammunition to his derractors back home. Would also make him look weak and would be an admission that his military has failed.
I think it's Russian performance at an operational and tactical level rather than weapons systems which has been less impressive.
Unless he has a group of exiles just waiting to return or can attract large numbers of collaborators, I don't see how he can form a puppet government.
Except so far there has been no attempt to take Kiev and instead they've been doing exactly what Sturm suggests, isolating the city, and slowly at that. First from the north-west, then the west, now the north-east. I suspect next will be east, after the fall of Kharkov and south-east from the Krivoy Rog area. South-west will probably be the last open route out, and it's the one they've designated as the humanitarian corridor for civilians to leave. This last part leads me to suspect that they will assault Kiev after all, but likely only after the fall of Kharkov and Sumy, and the encirclement of Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Krivoy Rog area.
There is overwhelming sympathy for Ukraine coupled with Russia underperforming and Ukraine overperforming in relation to expectations. This has led to a deceptive media picture where Russia is somehow losing. Based on what I see, this does not reflect reality. Russian troops are moving relatively quickly through Ukraine, blocking major cities initially, and clearing them afterwards. In some areas like Kharkov-Sumy they encountered serious resistance (though they're blasting their way through Kharkov at what appears to be a good pace for a city of that size and complexity). At Berdyansk, Melitopol', and Kherson, they seem to have encountered almost no resistance. Mariupol' is likely going to be a tough nut to crack, that assault just began. If you compare the tempo of Russia's advance to the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, it becomes a little more understandable. And remember, the US military is much better organized, has better logistics and maintenance, and managed to bribe portions of Iraqi high command into not fighting.
It's not that astonishing. It's the Chechnya-Syria playbook. Threaten-negotiate-compromise. If Russia wins and replaces the government in Kiev, it's very likely the new government will keep the same flag, so letting fly doesn't matter. If the city government needs to be replaced, by the time this is an issue Russia will have control of Ukraine and it can be done from Kiev. There's no downside to letting Ukrainian police and municipal services operate, quite the opposite. The more the town feels like life is normal the less likely they are to throw things at Russian vehicles, or form a guerilla resistance cell. Remember, while there's a standing Ukrainian army, and a government in Kiev, any resisting town leeches troops from the offensive movement. After that army and government fall, any town is left on it's own, isolated, and facing any level of force Russia chooses to bring.
vk.com
I suppose this depends on what you mean by "away". Russian troops are in the Kiev suburbs from the west and north-west, and approaching the suburbs from the east. I think there is almost 0 chance that Ukraine will counter-attack and dislodge those troops. I suspect the chance depends on whether any large units escape from the LDNR front where encirclement looms, and on how willing Russia is to commit forces.
If this timeline is accurate, then Russian planning was completely unrealistic, to the point of lunacy. At literally 0 resistance, merely the act of occupying space takes time. With any level of resistance, fighting in urban areas becomes a serious issue. Kharkov has already shown that there will be urban combat, the question is how much and how successful Russia will be.
I suspect this is accurate, and was at least partially fueled by a misunderstanding of what the nature of this conflict would be.
This is exactly the case though. There are already hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians who fled westward. By the time this is done, it will be millions. And these aren't migrants, these are refugees. Most will want to return given the chance.
Russia is asking for more then this already. Remember, Ukraine's non-bloc status was in the constitution, but this didn't prevent Yuschenko from making a bid for NATO membership. I don't see how any assurance or guarantee will be worth more then the paper (or stone) on which it is written without other factors. There's a reason Russian included demilitarization and "denazification" as the conditions. They want to make sure that if Ukraine does lean west-ward, Russia will be in a position to carry out another military operation easily either directly or via proxies.
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www.reuters.com
RT reported it, so yes. It will be reported by Russian state media.U.N. General Assembly in historic vote denounces Russia over Ukraine invasion
The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday overwhelmingly voted to reprimand Russia for invading Ukraine and demanded that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces, an action that aims to diplomatically isolate Russia at the world body.
141 votes for the resolution, 35 abstentions (including China) and 5 votes against.
I wonder if this will be reported in Russian state media, or if it will be swept under the carpet with just a reference to the statements of Russia and cronies who spoke against it?
The GA holds very, very, little real power (other than a few things like whether to accept new member states). It's a talk shop. While such a resolutuon carries moral weight and allows the leaders of all member countries to officially express their sentiments in a newsworthy fashion, whatever power the UN wields sits in the SC Perm Five seats*. Will Russian media report it? Likely they will. Will it make much difference when it comes to popular opinion of the war? Likely not.U.N. General Assembly in historic vote denounces Russia over Ukraine invasion
The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday overwhelmingly voted to reprimand Russia for invading Ukraine and demanded that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces, an action that aims to diplomatically isolate Russia at the world body.
141 votes for the resolution, 35 abstentions (including China) and 5 votes against.
I wonder if this will be reported in Russian state media, or if it will be swept under the carpet with just a reference to the statements of Russia and cronies who spoke against it?
Russia Today is internationally focused, though. The question is what the domestic broadcasters will say in terms of spinning it, assuming they do report the actual vote count.
It will be told that the dirty West money bought all that countries or the old Nazis after WWII got into government and support the Ukraine now.U.N. General Assembly in historic vote denounces Russia over Ukraine invasion
The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday overwhelmingly voted to reprimand Russia for invading Ukraine and demanded that Moscow stop fighting and withdraw its military forces, an action that aims to diplomatically isolate Russia at the world body.
141 votes for the resolution, 35 abstentions (including China) and 5 votes against.
I wonder if this will be reported in Russian state media, or if it will be swept under the carpet with just a reference to the statements of Russia and cronies who spoke against it?
It's a Russian-language version of RT and it included the actual vote count. It also cited RIA Novosti, which also reported on it.
ria.ru
www.thedrive.com
You already know this, of course, but a glimmer of hope for lurkers:
There have also been problems for ethnic Greeks and Greek expats in Odessa and Mariupol (from Australian site for those of Greek heritage in the Anglosphere -- some articles over-the-top anti-Ukranian, some extremely pro-Ukrainian, occasionally more balanced with less polemic.)
greekcitytimes.com
greekcitytimes.com
greekcitytimes.com
greekcitytimes.com
en.m.wikipedia.org
Thanks for sharing. I've seen uncorroborated claims that Ukrainian forces are preventing civilians from evacuating Mariupol', and this helps substantiate them. I also got a sad chuckle out of some of the contents.These are rather on the wild side and include highly dubious rumors heard by ethnic Greek Ukrainians, but some useful info:
Greek City Times – Greek City Times
Greek NEWS. Breaking news about Greece its people, politics and economy from the Greek city times, the leading source of information for Greece. Greek City Times is the leading International Greek news portal and news agency.
Yeah... Nordic mythology, national socialism and sun symbols. No Nazis here. What's the difference between Nazi and National Socialist again?
This website seems shady as hell. Their "about section" is poorly and unprofessionally written. They are a very new entity (from 2021), literally no info on them whatsoever online, media bias/fact check website doesn't even list them (yet). Very bad website design, as if aesthetics were an afterthought.There have also been problems for ethnic Greeks and Greek expats in Odessa and Mariupol (from Australian site for those of Greek heritage in the Anglosphere -- some articles over-the-top anti-Ukranian, some extremely pro-Ukrainian, occasionally more balanced with less polemic.)
Greek citizens begin evacuating from Mariupol, Russian forces guarantee safe passage - Greek City Times
The evacuation of the Consulate General of Mariupol, as well as Greek citizens, has begun according to diplomatic sources quoted by Proto Thema. The convoy led by Ambassador Frangiskos Kostelenos departed by road from the besieged Ukrainian port city of Mariupol. The plan to escape from Mariupol...
These are rather on the wild side and include highly dubious rumors heard by ethnic Greek Ukrainians, but some useful info:
Greek City Times – Greek City Times
Greek NEWS. Breaking news about Greece its people, politics and economy from the Greek city times, the leading source of information for Greece. Greek City Times is the leading International Greek news portal and news agency.Russian Forces Capture Greek-named City Of Kherson, Ukraine (MAP)
The Russian Defence Ministry announced that their armed forces have captured the southern Greek-named Ukrainian city of Kherson.WAR IN UKRAINE: Russian Forces Capture Four Ethnic Greek Villages In Mariupol, Concern For Far-Right Azov Battalion
Economist Thrasos Eftychidis, who has been living and working in the former Soviet Union for the last 28 years, expressed enormous concern for the large Greek
Via AFP, the Greek embassy in Kiev reported (incident happened 24 Feb):
"As tensions over an invasion ran high earlier this month, a Greek expatriate died in a clash in eastern Ukraine which Athens blamed on Ukrainian soldiers.Two other ethnic Greeks were injured, the Greek foreign ministry said."
Ten ethnic Greek civilians have reportedly been killed by Russian bombing in Mariupol.
EDIT: For those who have newly taken an interest in this conflict, there are around 100,000 ethnic Greeks in Ukraine (Greece says slightly more, Ukraine says less), mainly in Donetsk Oblast. As best I can tell, about 90% are Hellenistic Ukrainian citizens and about 10% expats/newer immigrants. For a quickie wiki history of Greeks in Ukraine:
Ukrainian Greeks - Wikipedia
As for Greeks in Greece, and those of Greek heritage in the West, this must wrenching, as they tend to side with their Orthodox brothers, but at the same time Greece is a NATO country siding against Russia and Greeks are also outraged at the invasion. Could explain the rather schizo one-extreme-or-the-other nature of the articles on that site.
