NZDF General discussion thread

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
With respect to the “freedom” protest at parliament and the apparent slow response from Defence to the police request for assistance, what is the main driver for this apparent caution - is it a minister not willing to act or officials cautious about becoming involved?
The answer to that is unknown. I would hazard a guess that because of the situation NZDF may have sought legal opinions from a variety of sources, before making a recommendation to the Minister and Governor General. NZDF cannot be deployed within NZ without the Sovereign's permission ad generally in HADR situations that's a given. However in a situation like the current "freedom" protest in Wellington, the 1981 Springbok Tour protests, and Bastion Point in 1978(?) the Governor General would have to think carefully before approving the request by the government of the day. This process is a constitutional protection to prevent a government from turning the military on the people.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Unclear what could be practically done within the next 2 years, given fundamental constraints. Defence staff shortages can't be addressed by conscription (completely politically infeasible), and a above-inflation pay rise would be nixed on grounds it would spread to all other parts of the state sector. Buying new assets is reliant on overseas supply lines - and we are in the queue for the P-8s and C-130Js.
Purchase of strike aircraft; there are 2nd-hand options on the market...but I imagine the USA and Euro nations will be hanging on their fleets given recent events. And extensive training would be needed for new aircrew.
NZ could act to increase its stockpiles of missiles and ammunition (esp CAMMS, Penguin) in the likely event overseas supply lines become untenable due to submarine warfare.
You couldn't do much as you say within two years, but you can order gear and increase recruitment and training, amongst other things. The only reason the P-8A and C-130J-30 are being so long in delivery is for fiscal reasons and nothing more. The nine RAF P-8A were ordered after ours and I believe that their ninth one has just been delivered to the UK. It is estimated to take 10 years to stand up a new ACF and that is with help. If we were really serious we could have the first brand new strike aircraft here within three years, depending upon what is selected and how soon the order was lodged though FMS.
 

Aerojoe

Member
The answer to that is unknown. I would hazard a guess that because of the situation NZDF may have sought legal opinions from a variety of sources, before making a recommendation to the Minister and Governor General. NZDF cannot be deployed within NZ without the Sovereign's permission ad generally in HADR situations that's a given. However in a situation like the current "freedom" protest in Wellington, the 1981 Springbok Tour protests, and Bastion Point in 1978(?) the Governor General would have to think carefully before approving the request by the government of the day. This process is a constitutional protection to prevent a government from turning the military on the people.
Thank you for such a well reasoned reply. That makes perfect sense from a constitutional perspective. Greatly appreciate your wise comments.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Thank you for such a well reasoned reply. That makes perfect sense from a constitutional perspective. Greatly appreciate your wise comments.
Think you. I don't think wisdom is something that I would lay claim too. The legal aspect of it is something that I remember from my RNZAF recruit course back in 1974. It was kinda drummed into us.
 

Gracie1234

Well-Known Member
Just a thought bubble.
The situation in Ukraine demonstrates very clearly that the UN is not able to protect anyone's sovereignty. It is sad, but we still live in a world where might makes right.
I hope our politicians are looking at what is happening and asking themselves some hard questions about what might happen closer to home. The dots need to be joined between our region's security and our ability to influence and respond.
Who our friends are who would help need to be considered.
 

Rob c

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Just a thought bubble.
The situation in Ukraine demonstrates very clearly that the UN is not able to protect anyone's sovereignty. It is sad, but we still live in a world where might makes right.
I hope our politicians are looking at what is happening and asking themselves some hard questions about what might happen closer to home. The dots need to be joined between our region's security and our ability to influence and respond.
Who our friends are who would help need to be considered.
I would say that any significant action by our pollies is not going to happen anytime soon. They will say that " THERE IS NO DIRECT THREAT TO NZ" and bury their collective heads back in the sand until any action they are force to take is simply too little too late.
 

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
I would say that any significant action by our pollies is not going to happen anytime soon. They will say that " THERE IS NO DIRECT THREAT TO NZ" and bury their collective heads back in the sand until any action they are force to take is simply too little too late.
I believe that NZ uses a six step method for this sort of thing.

1>There is no threat now that we need to worry about

2>There is a problem, but we firmly believe in the collective structure of the UN and the rules based system to avert threats using diplomacy.

3>The problem is significant, but we firmly believe our international friends can deal with it and NZ stands ready to act as an honest broker in the name of peace.

4>The problem is an immediate issue, but its too late to do anything now as it takes to long to raise and sustain the forces required,

5>NZ is a very small nation, anything we could send would be of little value, and such there is little point in attempting to do so as they couldn't change anything.

6>NZ has long been committed to an independent foreign policy that does not take sides in others disputes.
 

Shanesworld

Well-Known Member
I believe that NZ uses a six step method for this sort of thing.

1>There is no threat now that we need to worry about

2>There is a problem, but we firmly believe in the collective structure of the UN and the rules based system to avert threats using diplomacy.

3>The problem is significant, but we firmly believe our international friends can deal with it and NZ stands ready to act as an honest broker in the name of peace.

4>The problem is an immediate issue, but its too late to do anything now as it takes to long to raise and sustain the forces required,

5>NZ is a very small nation, anything we could send would be of little value, and such there is little point in attempting to do so as they couldn't change anything.

6>NZ has long been committed to an independent foreign policy that does not take sides in others disputes.
Sir humphrey?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Mahuta will give Vlad her meanest pukana, that will be the extent of NZ’s response to this crisis.
She had her minions call in Vlad's ambassador yesterday for a telling off. The Ambassador's staff got all hoha (angry) about it today.

She's planning to get a bigger jandal out from the looks of it.

"Aotearoa New Zealand condemns the advance of Russian military personnel and equipment into Ukraine, Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced.
“New Zealand condemns the advance of military personnel and equipment into of Ukraine, which represents a clear violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We stand with the people of Ukraine impacted by this conflict. Our thoughts are with them,” Nanaia Mahuta said.
“Russia’s actions are a flagrant breach of fundamental international rules; the use of force to change borders is strictly prohibited under international law.
“We join the international community in calling on Russia to cease military operations in Ukraine, and immediately and permanently withdraw, to ensure all possible steps are taken to protect civilians in line with international humanitarian law, and return to diplomatic negotiations to de-escalate this conflict.
“We remain in close contact with partners on the evolving situation, including on appropriate measures being considered by the international community. I will make a further announcement in due course,” Nanaia Mahuta said."​
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Just a thought bubble.
The situation in Ukraine demonstrates very clearly that the UN is not able to protect anyone's sovereignty. It is sad, but we still live in a world where might makes right.
I hope our politicians are looking at what is happening and asking themselves some hard questions about what might happen closer to home. The dots need to be joined between our region's security and our ability to influence and respond.
Who our friends are who would help need to be considered.
Interesting thing that I didn't know is that we don't have legislation to implement and enforce unilateral sanctions. We can only legally enforce UN sanctions. So that's why there have been calls for legislation such as the US Magnitsky Act be introduced and enacted here.

Our current crop of govt politicians will not be that interested in any security of defence ramifications for NZ because the Ukraine is a long way away and they don't need to be worried because as far as they are concerned there's no way that the Russian tanks and missiles can reach Wellington. So they can bluster on TV and in the media about how evil it is and it costs them nothing. Unfortunately Putin has let slip the dogs of war and one they are loose they cannot be controlled because they answer to no master.

The question is will it stop with the Ukraine? Or will it expand further into Europe? What will the EU's response be over time as the situation in the Ukraine deteriorates? If the EU eventually decides to intervene in favour of the Ukraine then what? That will draw NATO and the US in. With the US becoming further involved in Eastern Europe, Xi may see his golden opportunity to attack Taiwan. He's up for re=-lection to the top job in November and he's not guaranteed the majority of Central Committee votes that he requires to win because of the ongoing faction fighting. He's also really annoyed the PLA with his purging of PLA Generals, so they don't trust him anymore and are siding with the Jiang Zemin faction. He's trying to stop the selling of promotions and positions within the PLA, as well as all of the back handers that senior generals have received. They don't trust him and he can't trust them anymore even to carry out his orders, let alone with his life. Same with the police as well. Apparently the Party anti corruption unit busted one senior PLA general and needed five or so trucks to move the ash and valuables from his residence. From memory, he had about US$100, million in cash stowed around the place. They tallied up his earnings from his career of corruption and it was in the region of US$30 odd billion.

There is increasing unemployment and business failures because of his policies and people are worse off now that what they used to be. The burgeoning middle class isn't happy at all, because it's income has dropped, jobs have been lost and if they work as public servants their pay has gone right down. The basic pay rate is low and extras are made up with so-called bonuses. The municipalities have stopped paying bonuses and have required the last years bonuses that were paid out to be repaid. Also Beijing has apparently instituted a new compulsory levy which is just another tax and the regional governments are responsible for organising and collecting it. Some large municipalities have gone bankrupt and aren't paying their staff. So there's a fair few unhappy campers in the PRC at the moment. What's an authoritarian to do when such things happen? Why, nothing like a foreign adventure to divert the attention of the peasants and rabble rousers at home. If the main enemy is otherwise occupied by an enemy of my enemy who is a "friend" at the moment, it may be time to strike and achieve the goal of the Party. Hello Taiwan, Chairman Xi is here to liberate you from your capitalist oppressors.

Possible? Yes. Feasible? Yes. Will Xi do it? Who knows but he's not stupid and neither is Putin.

When Xi goes after Taiwan it will impact upon NZ no matter how deep our pollies bury their heads in the sand.
 

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
I have just received a response to my OIA request regarding NZDF personnel outflows. The numbers are grim and rebuilding the force post-Op Protect will take innovation and boldness. Here's my first of a 2 part article on it. I would welcome your ideas as to how to accelerate recruitment and training. High Price for NZDF Op Protect
Depressing stuff, but not unexpected. I've seen this for so many years I've come to the conclusion that only a foreign event that threatens to directly impact on politicians will change this sort of thing.
 

recce.k1

Well-Known Member
I have just received a response to my OIA request regarding NZDF personnel outflows. The numbers are grim and rebuilding the force post-Op Protect will take innovation and boldness. Here's my first of a 2 part article on it. I would welcome your ideas as to how to accelerate recruitment and training. High Price for NZDF Op Protect
A well researched and written article, thank you for spending time to investigate these crucial issues and bringing it to the public's attention (have you considered writing a similar guest article for Stuff or NZ Herald etc, so that it receives greater public and media exposure)?

Presumably pay increases would attract more recruits (the excuse against pay rises seem to be, if NZDF personnel receive a payrise then what about the rest of the public service, as wouldn't they deserve them too? But that ignores teachers and nurses receiving higher than normal pay rises under this government ... and nevermind that NZDF personnel doesn't get to "work from home" unlike other public servants that did, saving on commuting and parking costs, all whilst on full pay)!

Quick related question - didn't the NZDF receive a pay freeze either pre-covid or during covid? Has this been lifted now (or not) and how does that compare with the rest of the public service, did they all receive pay freezes or 1-3% pay increases?

Anecdotally the increasing cost of living is impacting NZDF personnel particularly those with young families (i.e. skilled personnel that have been in the service for a few years or more, presumably the types that NZDF shouldn't be losing due to resigning for better private sector jobs etc).

So does NZDF still charge market rents eg when living on bases? How practical would it be to go back to pre (late) 1980's reform times and build more accommodation on bases and charge nominal rents? As that would assist personnel (and families) cope with "lower" wages and higher costs of living etc. If we look at the cost of houses nowadays (over $1M), surely recruiting would become more attractive if prospective personnel knew their wages would stretch further due to lower accommodation costs etc?

On a way-out-there tangent, because of the changing world situation and challenges being faced by NZ in the wider Pacific by the CCP etc, I'm still of the view that NZDF should base some of their personnel and resources overseas (like how postings to Singapore were quite attractive, again pre (late) 1980's reforms and consolidations). Today I would suggest Australia, possibly Queensland or NT, for (for example, as that is where we forward-deploy from into Asia) a ready reaction company, or two to sustain the first (a battalion would be the icing on the cake but probably unrealistic, politically, until/if the Army expands beyond the 6000 planned for 2035 under DCP19). That detachment would be supported by some NZLAV (1-2 dozen? Apparently we have up to 35 "spare" at the moment, awaiting a possible (or improbable) sale, so that's where they would come from) as well as logistics and support (transport, comms, isr etc) personnel and equipment. And ideally 2-4 NH90's (or new Blackhawks if in the future, for full interoperability with the Australian Army). The reason for this? To ensure rapid deployment into the Indo-Pacific using allied heavy-lift assets on hand (until RNZAF can acquire A400M or C-2 in the future), as opposed to the status quoin which NZ will either have to ship LAV's overseas (rather slow) and tie-up the RNZAF C-130 fleet simply flying back and forth from NZ to OZ taking over personnel and their equipment. It also cements NZ's commitment to the defence of Australia (always mentioned in NZ public DCP's etc, but never given any proper resourcing) and be welcomed by our Aussie mates (as well as 2 Sqn RNZAF were when based at Norwa until 2001). This would be also be a tremendous recruiting attraction and with a little bit of political will it (or something similar) could actually be done, I feel!
 

Teal

Active Member
Good morning All
Long time listener, first time caller
Re Op Protect and the losses of personnel, this reminds me of the post "imping" period in july 2011, we lost so many then , after the letters and 3 months post july, my department went from 25 to 9 , with the same work demands , tasks just didnt get done , and to this day , some not even picked back up.
It makes me so sad , esp that the NZDF hadnt returned to pre july 2011 prior to this.
When i read the stats , Navy is the biggest loser here concidering the start numbers.
 

Kiwigov

Member
I would welcome your ideas as to how to accelerate recruitment and training. High Price for NZDF Op Protect
Thanks for investigating this in-depth. I don't know what the extent currently is of active NZDF recruitment - presumably mostly web-based for cost reasons and "the vibe". Perhaps a much more active approach to visiting universities, polytechs, high schools (though this would immediately be attacked by lefty education unions and the Misery of Education), and particularly to employers to promote the TF. Last one could be anathema to many firms facing skills shortages and so don't want their staff taking time on defence training. This resistance might be reduced by offering direct tax and subsidy incentives to employers (...just try getting that past the Treasury).
UK experience with dismal Army recruitment since they privatised the activity, provides a strong case-study against trying the same thing here.
 

Stuart M

Well-Known Member
On a way-out-there tangent, because of the changing world situation and challenges being faced by NZ in the wider Pacific by the CCP etc, I'm still of the view that NZDF should base some of their personnel and resources overseas (like how postings to Singapore were quite attractive, again pre (late) 1980's reforms and consolidations). Today I would suggest Australia, possibly Queensland or NT, for (for example, as that is where we forward-deploy from into Asia) a ready reaction company, or two to sustain the first (a battalion would be the icing on the cake but probably unrealistic, politically, until/if the Army expands beyond the 6000 planned for 2035 under DCP19). That detachment would be supported by some NZLAV (1-2 dozen? Apparently we have up to 35 "spare" at the moment, awaiting a possible (or improbable) sale, so that's where they would come from) as well as logistics and support (transport, comms, isr etc) personnel and equipment. And ideally 2-4 NH90's (or new Blackhawks if in the future, for full interoperability with the Australian Army). The reason for this? To ensure rapid deployment into the Indo-Pacific using allied heavy-lift assets on hand (until RNZAF can acquire A400M or C-2 in the future), as opposed to the status quoin which NZ will either have to ship LAV's overseas (rather slow) and tie-up the RNZAF C-130 fleet simply flying back and forth from NZ to OZ taking over personnel and their equipment. It also cements NZ's commitment to the defence of Australia (always mentioned in NZ public DCP's etc, but never given any proper resourcing) and be welcomed by our Aussie mates (as well as 2 Sqn RNZAF were when based at Norwa until 2001). This would be also be a tremendous recruiting attraction and with a little bit of political will it (or something similar) could actually be done, I feel!
Not going to happen.

"Luxon agreed New Zealand should avoid being dragged into one camp or another over the crisis."

Ukraine Crisis: Christopher Luxon says New Zealand must keep independent foreign policy in aftermath of Ukraine conflict - NZ Herald

I don't think even something like East Timor would occur now as this attitude now seems to be the settled policy of both major parties.

This will of course have ramifications on choices on both capacity and capability.
 
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