Russia - General Discussion.

[Feanor]

Ukraine-Russia crisis: What is the Minsk agreement? | Ukraine-Russia crisis News | Al Jazeera

Ukraine and Russia's Minsk Agreement Is a Problematic Peace Plan (foreignpolicy.com)

Please refer to the full text of the Minsk Accords.

https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/5/b/140221.pdf

Here's an English translation shamelessly lifted from Wikipedia by me. It's accurate as best as I can tell.

1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.
2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
   • for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
   • for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandumas of 19 September 2014
     
     The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
     
     This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
   
   Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.
8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
   
   With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.
9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralization (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.

Footnote:
The following measures are to be included in the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts":

• Freedom from punishment, harassment, and discrimination of persons connected with the events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• Right of language self-determination
• Participation of local self-government in the appointment of the heads of prosecutors' offices and courts in the particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• The possibility for central executive bodies to conclude agreements with relevant local authorities on economic, social, and cultural development of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• The state will provide support for the socio-economic development of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• Assistance from central executive bodies for cross-border cooperation by particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with regions of the Russian Federation
• The freedom to create people's militia units by decision of local councils to maintain public order in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• The powers of local council deputies and officials, elected in early elections, appointed by the Verkhovna Rada according to this law, cannot be prematurely terminated

You will note that there is not only a list of articles but a very specific timeline and an order of implementation. After the execution of the first 3 steps, which have been nearly completed many times, Ukraine is required to start discussing on how to run elections in the breakaway regions, and after that is required to pass a broad amnesty, pardoning those involved in the rebellion. Before any withdrawal of foreign troops real or imagined, Ukraine is required to "Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as payments of pensions and other payments ". In other words Ukraine has to start paying the residents their pensions, and to fully restore their ability to participate in Ukrainian economic life before Russia withdraws or returns control of the border to Ukraine. Restoration of the border (article 9) happens on the first day after local elections take place, and only ends (what does starting mean? ) "after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11". In other words, before Ukraine gets complete control of it's borders it has to complete "Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralization (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote, by the end of 2015."

It is blatantly obvious to anyone who has followed Ukrainian politics that Ukraine had no intention as a state of implementing these accords as they are written. Ukraine spent many years stalling the talks, running around in circles, and making veiled or open demands that the text of the accords be changed, and that Russia should first hand over the border and then Ukraine will consider implementing the rest. This is not an interpretation. It is plain and simple revisionism of the document in question. Ukraine effectively refused to implement the Minsk 2 accords as they are written and the more time passed the more Ukrainian officials were willing to state so openly, calling the Minsk Accords a trap and stating that granting the Donbass autonomy was out of the question.

The Ukrainian government are not the "good guys". They are a clique of corrupt oligarchs with their own interests in mind. No matter how bad Putin gets, it doesn't make Zelensky and his backers any better.

 

[Rob c]

A couple of interesting articles in regard to Putin and how the west has responded to him.

Ukraine invasion: how Vladimir Putin built his career on waging war

Timidity, greed and sloth: why the west always loses to Putin

There are a lot of similar articles out in the media, both on line and printed and while they are only the writers opinion, I think that the basic suggestion is that the current Ukrainian crisis is because the west did not react to Putin in the past with more vigor when required. I feel that the poor response to the take over of Crimea and other situations has brought us to todays problems.

 

[denix56]

Medvedev made a claim that they might start nationalization of the US and EU actives. It might be the way to fight the sanctions. But I think it is just prolonging the suffering.
I can’t imagine anyone in the right mind to invest in the country in near future due to high risk of being sanctioned / nationalized, isolation and toxic reputation.
I wonder for how long the bank will be able to hold the ruble as there is nearly no chance of improvement in the next half a year-year regardless of the result of the invasion.
The Iranization of the economy will probably come in 2022

 

[Ananda]

Question is how long the Euro can live without Russia energy. It's two way traffic not only one. Russia not Iran, and not completely isolated like West want to think, if they cut off the Financial access from their (Western) Financial market.

It will give hard problem to Russia, but so will be the energy adjustment bill that Euro has to take. Who do you think will pay that bill ? US ?

If Russia can sort out their invasion goals in one and two months. Push Ukraine to bargaining table just like Georgia did, neutralize potential NATO hold in Ukraine (like they did with Georgia), well let's see how long Euro can stand without Russia energy.

 

[Ananda]

EU, UK, Canada, US pledge to remove selected Russian banks from interbank messaging system SWIFT

Exclusion from SWIFT means key banks cannot communicate securely with banks beyond its borders.

www.cnbc.com

Just want to comment on this. Being omitted from SWIFT system (I have put this before in Iranian thread), does not mean your bank cut off from International transaction. It's mean your Bank cut off from 'western' Financial system. Iran still can do transaction with China for example with direct transaction between their Financial Institutions with Iranian ones. Not using payment clearing systems in London or New York or other Western Financial centers like Paris.

This on the situation where Iran is got much bigger embargoes that Russia faced. Other thing is with SWIFT clearly under Western Political move (then supposed neutral Financial system they're claim to be), this situation will only benefit China move to convince others for the need for competitor on SWIFT system.

Russia And China To Develop SWIFT Avoiding International Financial Systems - Russia Briefing News

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis Distrust of the United States is leading to the eventual rise of alternative global payment systems Russia and China have agreed to develop shared financial structures to deepen economic ties in a way that will not be affected by pressure of third countries. The move...

www.russia-briefing.com

I can tell you many non Western market willing to get competition in Financial Market medium, as they already see the present system only benefit Western Financial market on the situation where non Western Financial market already getting bigger.

So who's going to be big winner after all this ? China. Their efforts to convince other market (especially non Western ones) to move away some of their transaction from Western Financial market system will only get more traction.

That's why I said (in my previous post) the West closure on their Financial market will hit Russian hard. However doesn't mean it will close Russian from trading with non Western markets.

Russia is not Iran, where Iran being embargoes by UN, while UN will not and can not embargo Russia. Look whose abstain in last UN security vote; China, UAE, India. Those are from region that represents around half Global market. Some western politicians claim it shown Russia being internationally isolated. Well, by abstain those countries are saying they are not condone Russia invasion, but also they're not going to severe ties with Russia.

A China-Russia SWIFT Alternative Will Not Undermine Iran Sanctions

There is no realistic prospect that Beijing and Moscow will establish a viable joint system that imminently and significantly reduces Tehran’s difficulties with accessing the international financial system.

www.washingtoninstitute.org

For financial market perspective, this action only shown potential momentum for emergence of competition from SWIFT and Western Financial market dominance. I'm just imagine finance people in Shanghai gleefully see this development. Finally Shanghai chances to become real competitor to New York and London getting closer to reality. The article above talk the competing system for SWIFT still long way to go. The article right on that, however with SWIFT increasingly being used as 'weapon' by West, the momentum is just getting bigger.

Note:
Being only cut off selected Russian Bank seems come as middle ground from US and UK with Germany or other Euro that depends on Russian energy. They still need channel open to pay their Russian energy bills.

Add:

China's SWIFT alternative may undercut US sanctions - Asia Times

Washington’s new sanctions against Russia were no match for President Biden’s rhetoric, leaving out the most obvious measure that the United States might

asiatimes.com

This article I put, just to shown what some in Western Financial market being implied already. Using the market too much as Political tools, can backfired toward creating alternative on Western dominated market.

It will not happen soon, but once the Jinie already release from the bottle, it can create momentum for alternative global payment system. Something that going to be not under Western influences.

 

[John Fedup]

EU, UK, Canada, US pledge to remove selected Russian banks from interbank messaging system SWIFT

Exclusion from SWIFT means key banks cannot communicate securely with banks beyond its borders.

www.cnbc.com

Just want to comment on this. Being omitted from SWIFT system (I have put this before in Iranian thread), does not mean your bank cut off from International transaction. It's mean your Bank cut off from 'western' Financial system. Iran still can do transaction with China for example with direct transaction between their Financial Institutions with Iranian ones. Not using payment clearing systems in London or New York or other Western Financial centers like Paris.

This on the situation where Iran is got much bigger embargoes that Russia faced. Other thing is with SWIFT clearly under Western Political move (then supposed neutral Financial system they're claim to be), this situation will only benefit China move to convince others for the need for competitor on SWIFT system.

Russia And China To Develop SWIFT Avoiding International Financial Systems - Russia Briefing News

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis Distrust of the United States is leading to the eventual rise of alternative global payment systems Russia and China have agreed to develop shared financial structures to deepen economic ties in a way that will not be affected by pressure of third countries. The move...

www.russia-briefing.com

I can tell you many non Western market willing to get competition in Financial Market medium, as they already see the present system only benefit Western Financial market on the situation where non Western Financial market already getting bigger.

So who's going to be big winner after all this ? China. Their efforts to convince other market (especially non Western ones) to move away some of their transaction from Western Financial market system will only get more traction.

That's why I said (in my previous post) the West closure on their Financial market will hit Russian hard. However doesn't mean it will close Russian from trading with non Western markets.

Russia is not Iran, where Iran being embargoes by UN, while UN will not and can not embargo Russia. Look whose abstain in last UN security vote; China, UAE, India. Those are from region that represents around half Global market. Some western politicians claim it shown Russia being internationally isolated. Well, by abstain those countries are saying they are not condone Russia invasion, but also they're not going to severe ties with Russia.

A China-Russia SWIFT Alternative Will Not Undermine Iran Sanctions

There is no realistic prospect that Beijing and Moscow will establish a viable joint system that imminently and significantly reduces Tehran’s difficulties with accessing the international financial system.

www.washingtoninstitute.org

For financial market perspective, this action only shown potential momentum for emergence of competition from SWIFT and Western Financial market dominance. I'm just imagine finance people in Shanghai gleefully see this development. Finally Shanghai chances to become real competitor to New York and London getting closer to reality. The article above talk the competing system for SWIFT still long way to go. The article right on that, however with SWIFT increasingly being used as 'weapon' by West, the momentum is just getting bigger.

Note:
Being only cut off selected Russian Bank seems come as middle ground from US and UK with Germany or other Euro that depends on Russian energy. They still need channel open to pay their Russian energy bills.

Add:

China's SWIFT alternative may undercut US sanctions - Asia Times

Washington’s new sanctions against Russia were no match for President Biden’s rhetoric, leaving out the most obvious measure that the United States might

asiatimes.com

This article I put, just to shown what some in Western Financial market being implied already. Using the market too much as Political tools, can backfired toward creating alternative on Western dominated market.

It will not happen soon, but once the Jinie already release from the bottle, it can create momentum for alternative global payment system. Something that going to be not under Western influences.

Given China’s recent behaviour, are Asian countries really that enthusiastic to hook up with a Swift alternative that will be heavily influenced by the CCP? An alternative setup with India and Japan would be better but certainly the Japanese wouldn’t want to risk upsetting the US, especially wrt defence. Even adding a couple of ME countries to the mix isn’t all that much better given their political situations that could face an uncertain future. SWIFT, for all its faults from a non-western perspective, is a better bet than anything run and/or influenced by the CCP.

 

[denix56]

I dont knwo whether this article was published here, however it is interesting point of view. It says that nuclear weapon is actually cannot stop the millitary conflict and cannot be the 100% win for Russia.
The reason is that the strike even if 100% successful, will neither destroy all the nuclear potential of the USA / its army nor cause the civillian losses high enough for country to capitulate.

Ядерная иллюзия. «Застеклить» противника не получится

Не стоит считать ядерное оружие слабым или неопасным. Но и переоценивать не надо. В околопатриотической среде существует миф (и он тщательно культивируется в головах людей) о том, что если что – у нас есть ядерное оружие и с его помощью мы решим все проблемы. Или альтернативный его вариант:

topwar.ru

 

[Ananda]

SWIFT, for all its faults from a non-western perspective, is a better bet than anything run and/or influenced by the CCP.

Market is market John, is capitalist way on looking for all alternatives that are more efficient to make money. Why do you think crypto gaining more and more followers in market ? Used to be only internet geek that trading on crypto for internet transaction on games etc. Now serious market traders betting on them.

SWIFT works for most market as Western financial system provide the most depth in transaction instruments. Thus provide many alternatives of financing schemes. However just the article (the last one I put in previous post) point out. Playing the SWIFT for political game, can be double edge sword. It will provide momentum for competing systems to grow.

Do you think because of West pull the plug on Russian financial market, people will stop trading with Russia ? Russia has too big natural resources for one thing for people even in West to stop trading with them. So if the western market being close to Russia, what's the alternative ? Guess what, Shanghai or Hong Kong for one thing can provide that.

China's international payments system CIPS sees higher use

www.bofit.fi

I once wrote in Iran thread that USD will be hard to dethrone, as long as market still believe in US dominated western financial market. However if they are begin to lose the confidence or found other way to trade with market that US try to close, and they will find alternatives.

There's different for most Asian on CCP political behaviour and lucrative trading with China. CCP work hard to entices trading partner to move from USD to Yuan. It's hard, but they are gaining momentum. Several years ago only 6% of China international trading used Yuan, now close to 20% (CCP sources claim to 25%, but from what I heard from forex traders close to 20%).

One of benefits that people want to used Yuan in trading with China is direct currency exchange from origin customers currency with Yuan without has to pay difference rate of intermediate currency (like USD) if you used Western system like SWIFT.

Right now it is mostly working if you trade with China, however if people see SWIFT increasingly used as political tools, then some comfort level from non western market can begin to look for alternatives. That's where China hope with their CIPS.

Will that happen soon ? Off course not, but if West continue being perceived on using SWIFT as political tools rather then pure market tools as it should be, some other market will seriously try to find alternatives.

SWIFT alternative: China can provide reprieve from financial 'nuclear option' | Asia Markets

The United States and its allies have committed to expelling Russia from the SWIFT network. But Russian banks are already using an alternative.

www.asiamarkets.com

Few years ago, it is predicted it will take up to two decades (2040+) before any emergence of serious contender as SWIFT alternative. However this kind of development can change the momentum, and Chinese CIPS can be seen as alternatives. Thus CIPS emergence as alternatives can potentialy be speed up. Mind you we can see not only CIPS can be the alternatives, other thing can come out also as alternatives. That will be bad news for Western Poltical establishment, but can be what market looking for.

I have been as financial profesional long enough, to see that market does not like to be rule too much by geopolitical motives. Market only like to be rule by market motives more, politics second. The moment politics motives try to push market motives down, market will find the way.

So, some time in near future, it could be market will used SWIFT for trading with western market, but used alternatives system for trading with non western market. That's what the alternatives payment system like Chinese CIPS try to lured. All depends on how far market players still comfortable with Western Market system (for trading in non western market) including its payment system SWIFT.

 

[John Fedup]

Market is market John, is capitalist way on looking for all alternatives that are more efficient to make money. Why do you think crypto gaining more and more followers in market ? Used to be only internet geek that trading on crypto for internet transaction on games etc. Now serious market traders betting on them.

SWIFT works for most market as Western financial system provide the most depth in transaction instruments. Thus provide many alternatives of financing schemes. However just the article (the last one I put in previous post) point out. Playing the SWIFT for political game, can be double edge sword. It will provide momentum for competing systems to grow.

Do you think because of West pull the plug on Russian financial market, people will stop trading with Russia ? Russia has too big natural resources for one thing for people even in West to stop trading with them. So if the western market being close to Russia, what's the alternative ? Guess what, Shanghai or Hong Kong for one thing can provide that.

China's international payments system CIPS sees higher use

www.bofit.fi

I once wrote in Iran thread that USD will be hard to dethrone, as long as market still believe in US dominated western financial market. However if they are begin to lose the confidence or found other way to trade with market that US try to close, and they will find alternatives.

There's different for most Asian on CCP political behaviour and lucrative trading with China. CCP work hard to entices trading partner to move from USD to Yuan. It's hard, but they are gaining momentum. Several years ago only 6% of China international trading used Yuan, now close to 20% (CCP sources claim to 25%, but from what I heard from forex traders close to 20%).

One of benefits that people want to used Yuan in trading with China is direct currency exchange from origin customers currency with Yuan without has to pay difference rate of intermediate currency (like USD) if you used Western system like SWIFT.

Right now it is mostly working if you trade with China, however if people see SWIFT increasingly used as political tools, then some comfort level from non western market can begin to look for alternatives. That's where China hope with their CIPS.

Will that happen soon ? Off course not, but if West continue being perceived on using SWIFT as political tools rather then pure market tools as it should be, some other market will seriously try to find alternatives.

SWIFT alternative: China can provide reprieve from financial 'nuclear option' | Asia Markets

The United States and its allies have committed to expelling Russia from the SWIFT network. But Russian banks are already using an alternative.

www.asiamarkets.com

Few years ago, it is predicted it will take up to two decades (2040+) before any emergence of serious contender as SWIFT alternative. However this kind of development can change the momentum, and Chinese CIPS can be seen as alternatives. Thus CIPS emergence as alternatives can potentialy be speed up. Mind you we can see not only CIPS can be the alternatives, other thing can come out also as alternatives. That will be bad news for Western Poltical establishment, but can be what market looking for.

I have been as financial profesional long enough, to see that market does not like to be rule too much by geopolitical motives. Market only like to be rule by market motives more, politics second. The moment politics motives try to push market motives down, market will find the way.

So, some time in near future, it could be market will used SWIFT for trading with western market, but used alternatives system for trading with non western market. That's what the alternatives payment system like Chinese CIPS try to lured. All depends on how far market players still comfortable with Western Market system (for trading in non western market) including its payment system SWIFT.

As you say, markets don’t like political interference so CIPS might work for awhile but I can see the CCP pulling strings when it suits their interests just like the US/UK/Europe. As for crypto currency, no thanks.

 

[braddmlewis]

EU, UK, Canada, US pledge to remove selected Russian banks from interbank messaging system SWIFT

Exclusion from SWIFT means key banks cannot communicate securely with banks beyond its borders.

www.cnbc.com

Just want to comment on this. Being omitted from SWIFT system (I have put this before in Iranian thread), does not mean your bank cut off from International transaction. It's mean your Bank cut off from 'western' Financial system. Iran still can do transaction with China for example with direct transaction between their Financial Institutions with Iranian ones. Not using payment clearing systems in London or New York or other Western Financial centers like Paris.

This on the situation where Iran is got much bigger embargoes that Russia faced. Other thing is with SWIFT clearly under Western Political move (then supposed neutral Financial system they're claim to be), this situation will only benefit China move to convince others for the need for competitor on SWIFT system.

Russia And China To Develop SWIFT Avoiding International Financial Systems - Russia Briefing News

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis Distrust of the United States is leading to the eventual rise of alternative global payment systems Russia and China have agreed to develop shared financial structures to deepen economic ties in a way that will not be affected by pressure of third countries. The move...

www.russia-briefing.com

I can tell you many non Western market willing to get competition in Financial Market medium, as they already see the present system only benefit Western Financial market on the situation where non Western Financial market already getting bigger.

So who's going to be big winner after all this ? China. Their efforts to convince other market (especially non Western ones) to move away some of their transaction from Western Financial market system will only get more traction.

That's why I said (in my previous post) the West closure on their Financial market will hit Russian hard. However doesn't mean it will close Russian from trading with non Western markets.

Russia is not Iran, where Iran being embargoes by UN, while UN will not and can not embargo Russia. Look whose abstain in last UN security vote; China, UAE, India. Those are from region that represents around half Global market. Some western politicians claim it shown Russia being internationally isolated. Well, by abstain those countries are saying they are not condone Russia invasion, but also they're not going to severe ties with Russia.

A China-Russia SWIFT Alternative Will Not Undermine Iran Sanctions

There is no realistic prospect that Beijing and Moscow will establish a viable joint system that imminently and significantly reduces Tehran’s difficulties with accessing the international financial system.

www.washingtoninstitute.org

For financial market perspective, this action only shown potential momentum for emergence of competition from SWIFT and Western Financial market dominance. I'm just imagine finance people in Shanghai gleefully see this development. Finally Shanghai chances to become real competitor to New York and London getting closer to reality. The article above talk the competing system for SWIFT still long way to go. The article right on that, however with SWIFT increasingly being used as 'weapon' by West, the momentum is just getting bigger.

Note:
Being only cut off selected Russian Bank seems come as middle ground from US and UK with Germany or other Euro that depends on Russian energy. They still need channel open to pay their Russian energy bills.

Add:

China's SWIFT alternative may undercut US sanctions - Asia Times

Washington’s new sanctions against Russia were no match for President Biden’s rhetoric, leaving out the most obvious measure that the United States might

asiatimes.com

This article I put, just to shown what some in Western Financial market being implied already. Using the market too much as Political tools, can backfired toward creating alternative on Western dominated market.

It will not happen soon, but once the Jinie already release from the bottle, it can create momentum for alternative global payment system. Something that going to be not under Western influences.

You need to work in financial markets to understand what the most fundamental requirement is - you need to trust everyone in the supply chain that they will hold up their end of the bargain. Everything is calculated in terms of risk.

You can draw your own conclusions as to how much anyone will trust any new system much less one that is proposed from any country with a legal system with no alignment to any existing norms more than they have to. The only time this kind of action has ever occurred is with Iran and now Russia. Most countries do not have empire building agendas so they will happily stay with the system they know. As always this kind of topic gets jumped on with fervor and excitement from both sides because of politics and agendas. The sad truth here is that it is going to harm a lot of people all over the place who simply want to get on with their lives and not have to deal with this lives being turned upside down over ego and hubris

 

[Ananda]

need to work in financial markets to understand what the most fundamental requirement is - you need to trust everyone in the supply chain that they will hold up their end of the bargain.

Don't lecture me on how the market work. I have been in the market for long time. That's what I say the Western financial market will work for everyone as long as everyone in market believe it is relative impartial system that work only for market mechanism first.

The moment you used the market for more as political tools, then there will be people in market finding alternatives. Don't think this is only cause for Iran or Russia. China will not work hard to attract the alternatives, if only for Iran and Russia.

Market will only happy with one system, if they see the system can work for all of them. Like I said, I have been in financial industry long enough to see financial market will find alternatives, if the system being tampered too much by politics. Politics will always play in the market, but market will not let politics tampered too much. It will create market imparsiality, thus lossing the confidence from some of the players.

Market now still trust Western system rather then potential alternatives. However non western financial market also getting bigger. If West abuse that trust too much, they will find alternatives. If that happen, then western financial market and system will only create momentum for their own competitors on gaining ground.

That's why the last article that I put on that post, shown how the trust from market don't be played by politics too much. Western financial market dominance can be a double edge sword, if western politician not being carefull. Trust works both ways, and market will go where business potential goes.

Legal system of the west is the thing that make western system still relative trustworthy, compare to alternatives. That's why market especialy in West getting nervous if Politics try to ovet rule them.

Again it will not happen in short time, but loosing that confidence from non western financial market, will only give alternatives momentum gaining.

 

[webmaster]

Discussion on the sanctions on Russian Central Bank, removal from SWIFT.

 

[Ananda]

CIPS might work for awhile but I can see the CCP pulling strings when it suits their interests just like the US/UK/Europe. As for crypto currency, no thanks.

If some in the market using CIPS, it will be alternative not as SWIFT replacement. CCP will not gaining more trust then Western regulators. That's why western political circles must be carefull on keeping trust on western system. Don't abuse that.

 

[Vivendi]

As a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany is is making a major policy shift, and a change in the relationship to Russia.

Germany is committing to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, a NATO target.

The Bundeswehr is set to receive an extra €100 billion already this year.

Germany to ramp up military spending in major policy shift | Russia-Ukraine crisis News | Al Jazeera

The Russian invasion has in a few days completely changed the security landscape in Europe, and for sure there is more to come.

I somehow doubt this was part of Putin's plan...

 

[Feanor]

I dont knwo whether this article was published here, however it is interesting point of view. It says that nuclear weapon is actually cannot stop the millitary conflict and cannot be the 100% win for Russia.
The reason is that the strike even if 100% successful, will neither destroy all the nuclear potential of the USA / its army nor cause the civillian losses high enough for country to capitulate.

Ядерная иллюзия. «Застеклить» противника не получится

Не стоит считать ядерное оружие слабым или неопасным. Но и переоценивать не надо. В околопатриотической среде существует миф (и он тщательно культивируется в головах людей) о том, что если что – у нас есть ядерное оружие и с его помощью мы решим все проблемы. Или альтернативный его вариант:

topwar.ru

Excellent article and is absolutely correct. I wish it was available in english for everyone else.

EDIT: I don't have time to write in detail about it, but it looks like Russia is getting hit with a major sanctions package related to air travel by the EU, including the ability to purchase, lease, and maintain, aircraft. Given that the US is likely follow with similar measures, Russian air travel may be paralyzed nearly completely.

Вопросы выживания российской гражданской авиации в условиях западных санкций

На веб-ресурсе АвиаПорт.Ru опубликован материал Олега Пантелеева Как удержаться в небе, посвященный вопросу выживания российской гражданской авиации в условиях введенных против нее драконовских западных санкций . Самолеты Airbus A320neo и Boeing 737MAX авиакомпании S7…

bmpd.livejournal.com

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

It will remain to be seen how the latest sanctions will hit Russia, but the fact the Russian Central Bank had to immediately jump in with a statement suggests the financial leadership is concerned. Tomorrow will be very interesting - could be a run on Russian banks and capital flight.

 

[Steinmetz]

I dont knwo whether this article was published here, however it is interesting point of view. It says that nuclear weapon is actually cannot stop the millitary conflict and cannot be the 100% win for Russia.
The reason is that the strike even if 100% successful, will neither destroy all the nuclear potential of the USA / its army nor cause the civillian losses high enough for country to capitulate.

Ядерная иллюзия. «Застеклить» противника не получится

Не стоит считать ядерное оружие слабым или неопасным. Но и переоценивать не надо. В околопатриотической среде существует миф (и он тщательно культивируется в головах людей) о том, что если что – у нас есть ядерное оружие и с его помощью мы решим все проблемы. Или альтернативный его вариант:

topwar.ru

One of the most informative reads I've read. Thank you for sharing, very enlightening.

 

[swerve]

As a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Germany is is making a major policy shift, and a change in the relationship to Russia.

Germany is committing to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, a NATO target.

The Bundeswehr is set to receive an extra €100 billion already this year.

Germany to ramp up military spending in major policy shift | Russia-Ukraine crisis News | Al Jazeera

The Russian invasion has in a few days completely changed the security landscape in Europe, and for sure there is more to come.

I somehow doubt this was part of Putin's plan...

Kato's explained it in another thread. 100 billion euros are being put into a special fund for the armed forces to start drawing on immediately, & in addition, regular budgetary spending will be increased to 2% of GDP by 2024. The first step is to fully stock depots with spares & munitions, & a couple of closed depots may be re-opened & stocked.

100 billion is about two years of current defence spending.

 

[Rob c]

A rather chilling article I got from MSN News about whether Putin would use nuclear weapons.
Would Putin press the nuclear button?
The statement by Putin " that if there was no Russia there was no need for the rest of the world' when talking a out the nuclear option sums up his thinking. I hope he is not thinking as well that if there is no Putin there is no Russian

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

A rather chilling article I got from MSN News about whether Putin would use nuclear weapons.
Would Putin press the nuclear button?
The statement by Putin " that if there was no Russia there was no need for the rest of the world' when talking a out the nuclear option sums up his thinking. I hope he is not thinking as well that if there is no Putin there is no Russian

While his recent statements, underlined by his raising Russia's alert level, are certainly concerning, I think the article is a bit misleading.

The only example given is this: In a 2018 documentary, President Putin commented that "…if someone decides to annihilate Russia, we have the legal right to respond. Yes, it will be a catastrophe for humanity and for the world. But I'm a citizen of Russia and its head of state. Why do we need a world without Russia in it?"

The context appears to be a nuclear strike on Russia. An American or European head of state would say the same about right to respond, and an American would even say "will respond" when discussing a nuclear strike on the US, and leave it at that. So far as I can recall, Soviet leaders left it at that, but could be wrong. Putin adding that bit about "a world without Russia" is an emphasis of his seriousness with intent to sound scary, perhaps because he feels Russia has not been taken seriously by the West since the fall of the USSR.

One would think Putin would only press the button if Russia is attacked -- and that could well include a conventional attack on Russia by the US or NATO.