Pakistan Air Force [PAF] News and Discussions

[SABRE]

There are rumours that the IAI Lavi had it's DNA in the F-16XL so if they are right then the J-10C DNA goes back to the F-16.

As early as the late-1980s rumours were abound that Israel had sold Lavi's design to China, which the Israelis denied. It's possible that Israel provided the airframe design and data on certain avionics and aerodynamics but question remains how much of an information and assistance could it have provided, especially on the items of U.S. origin? In any case, except for the basic airframe design influence the J-10 has emerged as a completely different aircraft. Israel is, however, unlikely to protest the Chinese sales of J-10, even if the rumours are true, for two reasons:

1. Israel simply cannot influence Chinese decisions
2. Despite its hawkish stance against Israel, Pakistan does not threaten Israeli security

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

As early as the late-1980s rumours were abound that Israel had sold Lavi's design to China, which the Israelis denied. It's possible that Israel provided the airframe design and data on certain avionics and aerodynamics but question remains how much of an information and assistance could it have provided, especially on the items of U.S. origin? In any case, except for the basic airframe design influence the J-10 has emerged as a completely different aircraft. Israel is, however, unlikely to protest the Chinese sales of J-10, even if the rumours are true, for two reasons:

1. Israel simply cannot influence Chinese decisions
2. Despite its hawkish stance against Israel, Pakistan does not threaten Israeli security

Protesting against the J-10 sale is also directly admitting that they have sold Lavi/F-16 technology to china.

 

[SABRE]

Minister: Pakistan Bought Chinese J-10 Jets To Counter India’s Rafales

On Dec. 29, Pakistani Interior Minister Sheikh Rasheed Ahmed announced the Pakistan Air Force would unveil 25 newly imported “JS-10” jet fighters from China for the Republic Day parade on March 23. These jets, he added, would counter the 36 Dassault Rafale fighters India was receiving from France.

www.forbes.com

Altough no confirmation yet from Chinese source, if this is confirm, means Pakistan involvement with Chinese assets shown how Pakistan decided to move away from US F-16 as PAF mainstay air defense assets.

The article speculate in the end J-10 (potentialy J-10C) going to replace old Mirage 3/5 in PAF inventory as JF-17 replacing J-6. If Pakistan can also get similar deals as JF-17 for manufacturing J-10 domestically, this in fact can replace F-16 altogether.

Few clarifications to the link you have provided.

Firstly, the minister in question is very close to the military yet he is largely an unreliable source with improper information and inexcusable communication skills. Moreover, his grasp of strategic and foreign affairs and defence acquisitions is mediocre, IMO. His claim that J-10 would be "performing for the first time" on 23rd March 2022 in Pakistan does not mean that the aircraft in question would be PAF's aircraft. Moreover, this claim of J-10 performing for the first time in Pakistan is false as the PLAAF performed manurers with J-10 in Pakistan couple of years back. Nevertheless, J-10 appears poised for induction.

Secondly, while India's Rafael acquisition has, in part, served to expedite J-10's acquisition it is not the actual causal phenomenon for Pakistan's decision to acquire J-10. PAF has had intended to induct J-10 for a long time - for more than a decade - but hesitated as the aircraft was not available in required and favourable configuration. Since that issue has been resolve to large extent PAF is, from what appears, moving forward with the intention to acquire the aircraft.

 

[Ananda]

Since that issue has been resolve to large extent PAF is, from what appears, moving forward with the intention to acquire the aircraft.

Thanks for the clarification. Do you think with J-10 and JF-17 combo, F-16 will be rundown soon ? I mean US probably won't be too supportive for PAF F-16 support later on.

 

[STURM]

Notwithstanding various issues faced with Pakistan the U.S. still has strategic reasons to maintain as far as possible good ties with it. Chances of the U.S. providing less logistical/technical support for the PAF's F-16 fleet is unlikely. Also whilst the PAF is getting new fighters; F-16s still make up a significant portion of it's fighter fleet and are highly valued.

 

[Ananda]

Well that's why I ask @SABRE with. Pakistan is not having same Financial resources as India.

US 'drops planned Pakistan F-16 fighter jet subsidy'

The US will no longer subsidise the sale of eight F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan, a senior state department official tells the BBC.

www.bbc.com

Pakistan now has to pay full price for US support, not only for procurement but seems it's including F-16 maintenance. If China provide better pricing not only procurement for J-10C but also on support, then Pakistan I believe in the end has to choose how long they want to keep that F-16.

Off course if Pakistan choose to run down the F-16, they will not doing it until enough J-10C capabilities being build in their Air Defense portfolio.

So is Pakistan still will get similar support from US if they move to more J-10C combo with JF-17? Will US going to keep the same level of Geopolitical strategy with Pakistan ?

Western media sources now being fill by Indian sources, that clearly bias against Pakistan. There's increase India campaign to continue downgrade US Pakistan relationship on top the bias that some in US politics already have toward Pakistan. There's increasing call for India importance in Quad from US Media, Think Tank and Political circles. That's off course will come at the cost of Pakistan.

Is that massage also similar that internal Pakistan got ? If that happens it will come to question how long Pakistan hope can effectively maintain US sourced assets in long run.

 

[SABRE]

Thanks for the clarification. Do you think with J-10 and JF-17 combo, F-16 will be rundown soon ? I mean US probably won't be too supportive for PAF F-16 support later on.

If logistical support does not come to a grinding halt and results in mass attrition of F-16s I think the aircraft would continue to serve well beyond 2050s. If PAF is able to acquire more it would jump to the opportunity. PAC knows how to salvage and keep F-16s flying when faced with limited support from the U.S. and Pakistan might also be able to secure unauthorised support from Turkey (though unlikely). But these things can only go so far.

 

[Ananda]

logistical support does not come to a grinding halt and results in mass attrition of F-16s I think the aircraft would continue to serve well beyond 2050s.

Thanks for that clarification. Thus basically it all back on how far the US support will be, as PAF still value their F-16.

 

[STURM]

Pakistan I believe in the end has to choose how long they want to keep that F-16.

As long as the financial situation does not reach a stage where there is no cash for the F-16s or when the U.S. decides it will cease all support [unlikely] and instructs others countries not to provide any assistance; the F-16s will keep flying and continue to form a vital element of the PAF alongside other assets.

Well that's why I ask @SABRE with. Pakistan is not having same Financial resources as India.

F-16s form a very important component of the PAF and make up quite a bit with the numbers; thus even though Pakistan is in dire financial straits it's safe to assume that the government will do what it can to adequately fund the needed maintenance and support for its F-16 fleet.

Will US going to keep the same level of Geopolitical strategy with Pakistan ?

The U.S. has various issues with Pakistan but the U.S. still needs to keep Pakistan engaged as the region is still important to the U.S. [despite its defeat in Afghanistan] and Pakistan is a nuclear power which the U.S. desires some level on leverage on. Totally disengaging from Pakistan only draws Pakistan closer to China and lessens the leverage and influence the U.S. has on it.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Agree

As long as the financial situation does not reach a stage where there is no cash for the F-16s or when the U.S. decides it will cease all support [unlikely] and instructs others countries not to provide any assistance; theF-16s will keep flying and continue to form a vital element of the PAF alongside other assets.



F-16s form a very important component of the PAF and make up quite a bit with the numbers; thus even though Pakistan is in dire financial straits it's safe to assume that the government will do what it can to adequate fund the needed maintenance and support for its F-16 fleet.



The U.S. has various issues with Pakistan but the U.S. still needs to keep Pakistan engaged as the region is still important to the U.S. [despite its defeat in Afghanistan] and Pakistan is a nuclear power which the U.S. desires some level on leverage on. Totally disengaging from Pakistan only draws Pakistan closer to China and lessens the leverage and influence the U.S. has on it.

.
I also think that Pakistan will keep the F-16 as long it still uses obsolete stuff like the Mirage III and F-7P/PG.

Besides that a customer with more than 70 F-16s in its fleet, will generate an nice income for the spare parts and service providers in the US.

 

[SABRE]

Agree

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I also think that Pakistan will keep the F-16 as long it still uses obsolete stuff like the Mirage III and F-7P/PG.

Besides that a customer with more than 70 F-16s in its fleet, will generate an nice income for the spare parts and service providers in the US.

Its likely that Mirage-III/V and F-7PG fleet will be retired in next 5 to 7 years. Since JF-17 Block-III production has commenced the process might speed up (depending on the pace of JF-17's production). F-16s on the other hand are likely to remain in service for much much longer period (well into 2050s), untethered from what happens to the legacy aircraft. Right now Pakistan has enough bombs and missiles for F-16s to last at least one major war with India.

 

[Ananda]

U.S. has various issues with Pakistan but the U.S. still needs to keep Pakistan engaged as the region is still important to the U.S. [despite its defeat in Afghanistan] and Pakistan is a nuclear power which the U.S. desires some level on leverage on. T

Well that's about it. I don't know whether US still interest to keep Pakistan from drawing closer to China. Look at T129 deal between Pakistan and Turkey. US keep blocking the engine, while with Philipines later on they allowed the Turks on the engine for Philipines order.

Pakistan then switching to China Attack Helicopter, while in my opinion Pakistan with getting some assets from Turkey, is also still try to balance their defense procurement for not to dependent with China.

So, I just don't know what to read on US stand for Pakistan now.

 

[Ananda]

Since JF-17 Block-III production has commenced the process might speed up (depending on the pace of JF-17's production).

Do you think China will give some licensing agreement on J-10, like they did with JF-17 ?

 

[STURM]

So, I just don't know what to read on US stand for Pakistan now.

As I pointed out, Pakistan is in a region of importance for the U.S and disengaging from Pakistan would draw it even closer to China; lessening whatever leverage the U.S. has. Pakistan as you're aware it also nuclear armed; thus the U.S. which is worried about proliferation and other things still desires a certain level of ties and influence.

 

[SABRE]

Do you think China will give some licensing agreement on J-10, like they did with JF-17 ?

China didn't have to license JF-17 production to Pakistan. It was a joint venture from the beginning with Pakistan being part owner of the project and the aircraft was always intended to be produced in Pakistan. For J-10, licensed production would only make sense if PAF intends on buying the aircraft in large numbers, perhaps 100-150 or more. So far nothing is clear. As I alluded earlier, PAF appears intent on buying the J-10 but the procurement agreement, if there is one, has not been made public. There is no official confirmation by reliable channels either in Pakistan or China.

 

[ngatimozart]

e.


As I pointed out; Pakistan is in a region of importance for the U.S and disengaging from Pakistan would draw it even closer to China; lessening whatever leverage the U.S. has. Pakistan as you're aware it also nuclear armed; thus the U.S. which is worried about proliferation and other things still desires a certain level of ties and influence.

I don't think Pakistan is will be any particular interest to the US now. Afghanistan is no longer of such a great concern. The US are getting close to Indian and can counter PRC influence that way. The Pakistan military, particularly the ISI were always a problem for the US and couldn't be trusted with the time of day. However, time will tell.

 

[koxinga]

China didn't have to license JF-17 production to Pakistan. It was a joint venture from the beginning with Pakistan being part owner of the project and the aircraft was always intended to be produced in Pakistan. For J-10, licensed production would only make sense if PAF intends on buying the aircraft in large numbers, perhaps 100-150 or more. So far nothing is clear. As I alluded earlier, PAF appears intent on buying the J-10 but the procurement agreement, if there is one, has not been made public. There is no official confirmation by reliable channels either in Pakistan or China.

Assembly rather than license production might be a more viable direction. But that said, PAC's capacity is directed at JF-17, maintaining their existing fleet of Mirages/F-7Ps and what's left for Azm; assembly doesn't offer Pakistan any significant value in terms of ToT. Off the shelf purchases seems more likely.

 

[STURM]

I don't think Pakistan is will be any particular interest to the US now. Afghanistan is no longer of such a great concern.

Nonetheless there will be reasons why the U.S. still wants a certain level of influence and leverage on Pakistan and will not completely drop it. Pakistan's neighbourhood; the role China plays in the region, terrorism and the fact that Pakistan is a nuclear state will be prime reasons.

The Pakistan military, particularly the ISI were always a problem for the US and couldn't be trusted with the time

Very true because the ISI put Pakistan's interests before that of the U.S. Not everything which was good for the U.S. was good for Pakistan.
There were various occasions however when assistance and intel provided by the ISI benefited the U.S - quite a few high ranking AQ members were captured by Pakistan and handed over. Assistance provided by Pakistan in other areas also benefited both sides. Contrary to poplulsr perception it wasn't a one way street. There were also instances where the U.S. should have been more forthcoming or open regarding several issues with Pakistan.

I've long been critical of the role Pakistan has played; during the Soviet war it only provided support to compliant Afghan groups [almost nothing went to Massoud's Jamiat Islami] and supported Herzb Islami [led by Hetmetyer] and other Pakistan friendly groups. During the civil war Pakistan played a vital role supplying Hetmetyer and when he couldn't deliver switched support to the Taliban. Ultimately with regards to the Soviet war; the U.S. and other countries could not have done what they did without Pakistan's assistance. Pakistan ultimately benefited but it also paid a heavy price and was later left in the lurch when the U.S. disengaged. In the 'War On Terror' Pakistan was caught in a very hard place; it had to draw a fine line between doing what was good for itself and what was good for the U.S. The Pakistani lens was centered not only on Afghanistan per see but with India, domestic and a host of other issues.

This does not excuse some of what Pakistan did but neither does it do away with the fact that a lot of what went wrong for the U.S. was because of flawed policies and actions on the part of the U.S.

 

[SABRE]

X-number of J-10Cs are reportedly leaving or have left for Pakistan.

 

[Ananda]

China’s First Export J-10 Multi-Role Fighters For Pakistan Emerge (Updated)

The long-anticipated Pakistani order for the J-10 is widely seen as a counter to India’s new Dassault Rafale fighters.

www.thedrive.com

Yes seems it is already in several twitter, thus online media put it. @SABRE do you think it is the actual PAF order, or PLAN inventory being loan to PAF first. Just curious as it is very fast delivery. Perhaps PAF got some initial delivery coming from PLAN production batch.

Also if the speculations on those twitter on engine are true, then it is J-10C as Chinese source say this is the version that used WS-10 Taihang.