John Newman
The Bunker Group
I tend to agree.I am not sure if there are any red flags around JSM. F-35 Block 4 has been delayed and is not ready yet. JSM requires block 4.
So far Japan and Norway has ordered JSM. Japan actually ordered before Norway! Norway ordered the JSM in October of last year. I believe that's when series production started as well.
The sibling of JSM, the NSM (Naval Strike Missile) has so far been ordered by Norway, Poland, the US (both Marines and USN), Malaysia, Germany, and Romania. Canada has stated it will be integrated into their new frigates being built. The NSM is delivered both ship-launched and launched from land (Poland, US Marines, and Romania(?)).
The JSM has a unique competitive advantage in that it fits into the F-35 weapons bay, maintaining the low RCS of the F-35. The NSM does not have a similar advantage over ship and truck-launched competitors, still it has sold quite well.
Finland recently decided that they will buy the F-35. No orders have been made yet, but the JSM was included in the weapons package in the offer from LM.
I believe the main reason why JSM has not sold so much yet, is simply because of timing. I would wait until the end of 2023 (perhaps even longer) before drawing any conclusions about the commercial success of the JSM.
Kongsberg appears to be going well with NSM, and JSM has been selected by Norway and Japan, there are suggestions that Finland will procure JSM, and the jury is still undecided regarding Australian procurement.
And I tend to agree that it’s a timing issue, until Block 4 is integrated into the F-35, well there’s probably no pressure for others to commit to orders.
Will JSM eventually be integrated to Super Hornet? Potentially in the future, but at the moment we’ll see LRASM for the USN and RAAF (and JASSM-ER).
Anyway, if F-35A and C users want an AShM that can be carried internally, JSM is currently the only game in town.