Russia - General Discussion.
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
Well diplomacy/dialogue is always good and he did say a solution could take months. A question is how much support does Macron really have from his fellow NATO leaders?
I have no idea but my guess is that it would take far more than that to really rattle Russia. ASMs, ATGWs, small arms and other stuff is great; shows that the Ukrainians are not alone and is stuff they need but ultimately won't make much of a difference if the Russians do invade.
Russian war games in Belarus designed to ‘send Ukraine a message’
Experts raise alarm over imminent drills which NATO says mark the biggest deployment to Belarus since the Cold War.
the concerned
Active Member
Rumours are that the UK system is the Brimstone missile. That's a impressive missile system but apparently this order was before this latest flare up.
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
With respect to the US relationship with nations or colonies in the Caribbean, what time frame are you referring to, as the answer could be different given the different statuses many of the islands have had at different times in history, as well as the relationships between those islands and various European powers.
Regarding stances taken during the US's rise to becoming a Great Power, this brings up a point that I have not previously articulated that I feel many people keep overlooking, particularly when trying to compare the rise of other nations like Russia or mainland China. From my POV, attempts to make such comparisons, particularly if/when trying to 'justify' actions (aka whataboutism) would be like making an apples to potatoes comparison and then conflating that into an apples to apples comparison. The reason I think that is that, while the US is a comparatively newly founded, settled and unified nation which rose to Great Power status, both Russia and mainland China are nations with imperial pasts and would have been considered a Great Power at one or more points in their respective histories. In short, neither Russia or mainland China are attempting to rise to Great Power status, they are attempting to (or already have) regain Great Power status. That might be a distinction which the significance of which is lost by most, but IMO is a key difference.
A reason I consider it a key difference is because there is prior history of interactions between Russia and China when they were Great Powers in their past, and the various nations and peoples which border Russia and China respectively. Whilst a number of examples are certainly available, given the potent flashpoint that is the Ukraine currently, I will reference one such issue from there.
We are currently in the year 2022, and about 90 years ago was the start of the Great Famine in the Soviet Union, which is estimated to have claimed the lives of ~3.5 mil. people in the Ukraine between 1932-1933 with the majority being ethnic Ukrainians. IMO this is significant for a few reasons. First, the famine was a man-made or artificially induced famine, and not the results of natural disasters which caused large scale crop failures. Even with the poor crops following the change to collective farming, the yields were still sufficient to support the population. However, Soviet authorities set requisition quotas too high to leave enough food to sustain the population, whilst also deploying special agents to regularly search homes and confiscate foodstuffs. Further, a law was passed in August 1932 which led to peasants facing the firing squad if they were caught having stolen a sack of wheat from state storehouses.
Now the above situation tends to take on a somewhat different perspective if one also realizes that the Ukraine had been absorbed into the Soviet Union in 1922. This after having been able to briefly establish an independent government following the 1917 revolution, and having fought a series of conflicts to resist coming (back) under Russian/Soviet rule.
The current situation today is not that Russia is seeking to establish influence/power/control over the Ukraine, but rather that Russia is seeking to regain influence/power/control that it once had over the Ukraine (and elsewhere), and that the Ukraine has over the years sought to reduce or eliminate. Similar situations exist with other former Soviet/Russian Empire states and satellite nations.
A closer comparison between the current Russian/Ukraine situation would be more like if the UK was attempting to regain or re-exert elements of the British Empire in ex-colonial Africa, or if France were to attempt to regain influence over/control of ex-French Africa like Algeria.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #445
In 1922 Ukraine had a communist government, and was an original treaty signatory to the Union Treaty. The Ukrainian delegation to the treaty conference was quite large and represented the de-facto government of Ukraine following the end of the Civil War. Ukraine also ratified the treaty, during the 7th all-Ukrainian Gathering of Rad's (the local equivalent of a gathering of representatives from various Soviets within the RSFSR). Not quite a return to Russian rule. And let's not forget that under the label of Ukraine "fighting a series of conflicts to resist..." we have an intervention by Germany, France, Poland, and various White movements, in a distinctly anti-democratic manner, to re-establish some sort of capitalist authority following the fall of the Russian Empire. Neither Petlyura, an opportunistic dictator, nor the German occupation government have any legitimacy to claim some sort of national liberation struggle.
The Central Rada might have, but it was fighting against parts of its own people in the process, and it wasn't brought down by the Soviet Union (how could it, that didn't even exist) or even communist forces (though they tried, and found much support in local workers organizations). It was ultimately brought down by a nationalist coup, but not before selling out the country to a foreign occupation. Presumably it was too democratic for what the propertied classes wanted at the time (see Skoropadsky). A fitting end to what started out as an un-elected political club that proclaimed itself to be the representatives of a non-existent country. And if you dig into what elections did take place inside what later became the Ukrainian SSR you'll find the pro-independence groups in a distinct minority.
H I Sutton video on VMF ship movements in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. Of note it has all of its three Slava class cruisers in the region now with the Marshal Ustinov from the Baltic and two destroyers entering the Med though the Straits of Gibraltar on 7/2/22. The Varyag from the Pacific Fleet and its attendant destroyer entered the Med through the Suez Canal on 3/2/22. Moskva and escorts have sailed from Sevastopol and are expected in the Med on 15/2/22.
Source: Russian-Navy-Med-Black-Sea-Map-2022-02-09.jpg (1920×1080) (hisutton.com)
H I Sutton also has OSINT tracker in conjunction with others that will be regularly update the VMF activity in the Med. It can be found here:
H I Sutton - Covert Shores
Source: Russian-Navy-Med-Black-Sea-Map-2022-02-09.jpg (1920×1080) (hisutton.com)
H I Sutton also has OSINT tracker in conjunction with others that will be regularly update the VMF activity in the Med. It can be found here:
H I Sutton - Covert Shores
Steinmetz
Active Member
Indeed, that's the big question. They're all unified on sanctions of course, but to what extent? The Italian Prime Minister also scoffed at the idea.
The UK and US seem to be the main players in sending Ukraine any sort of meaningful military hardware. The Baltic states too of course, but only with sourced NATO weaponry.
That's correct, wouldn't make much of difference on the battlefield. However, I think adding ASMs to the mix aggravates the issue. Has the potential to do a lot of damage. Plus, I wouldn't trust Ukraine with such weapons. All it takes is one wrong move, and a press of the button to set something off. Gives Russia more pretext and excuses to launch any further incursions. They can easily say "It won't stop there, when will it stop?", "Where are our written guarantees?"
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
IIRC, the only restrictions on military vessels are for submarines, they have to stay surfaced I believe.
Its a bit more than that. Article 18, 19 and 20 of UNCLOS are relevant in defining what innocent passage is and what you can do on such passage. It should be noted this only applies to ships in the territorial seas of the coastal State (i.e: 12nm from the baseline).
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #451
Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
This is a good place to start. I strongly suggest you make at least a minimum effort to find answers yourself, and educate yourself on the context of the issues being discussed.
OSINT Tracker Feb 10 2022: Russian Navy Anti-Ship Capabilities in Mediterranean & Black Sea
Surface Groups
Marshal Ustinov group. 1 x SLAVA Class Cruiser, 1 x UDALOY-I Class Destroyer and 1 x Admiral Gorshkov class frigate. Active South of Sicily.
Varyag group. 1 x SLAVA Class Cruiser, 1 x UDALOY-I Class Destroyer . Possibly other warships. Active in Eastern Mediterranean
Moskva. 1 x SLAVA Class Cruiser, unreported escorts. Left Sevastopol. Expected to move to Med Feb 15
Submarines
2 x KILO Class submarines, Krasnodar and Novorossiysk, on patrol in Eastern / Central Med. Exact position not known. To be confirmed.
KILO Class submarine Rostov-na-Donu in transit to Black Sea, expected to pass Bosporus Feb 11.
2 x KILO submarines believed to be in Sevastopol.
1 x KILO class submarine, likely in Novorossiysk.
All of the above is the latest info from H I Sutton's Covert Shores site on VMF Med movements.
Surface Groups
Marshal Ustinov group. 1 x SLAVA Class Cruiser, 1 x UDALOY-I Class Destroyer and 1 x Admiral Gorshkov class frigate. Active South of Sicily.
Varyag group. 1 x SLAVA Class Cruiser, 1 x UDALOY-I Class Destroyer . Possibly other warships. Active in Eastern Mediterranean
Moskva. 1 x SLAVA Class Cruiser, unreported escorts. Left Sevastopol. Expected to move to Med Feb 15
Submarines
2 x KILO Class submarines, Krasnodar and Novorossiysk, on patrol in Eastern / Central Med. Exact position not known. To be confirmed.
KILO Class submarine Rostov-na-Donu in transit to Black Sea, expected to pass Bosporus Feb 11.
2 x KILO submarines believed to be in Sevastopol.
1 x KILO class submarine, likely in Novorossiysk.
All of the above is the latest info from H I Sutton's Covert Shores site on VMF Med movements.
Steinmetz
Active Member
Not sure if this is valid or not, but apparently Russia has canceled their NOTAM for large parts of the Azov and added more areas to the Black Sea.
Statements made by the U.S. and NATO, as well as military movements undertaken by the Russians certainly gives the impression that an invasion is imminent.
What I don't understand is why aren't certain NATO countries sending troops and assets in larger numbers to Poland and the Baltic states given that this is the most serious crisis Europe has faced in decades, that NATO constantly emphasises its determination to.demonstrate resolve against what its says is Russian provocation and is worried an invasion of the Ukraine will.eventually spill over into NATO territory.
What I don't understand is why aren't certain NATO countries sending troops and assets in larger numbers to Poland and the Baltic states given that this is the most serious crisis Europe has faced in decades, that NATO constantly emphasises its determination to.demonstrate resolve against what its says is Russian provocation and is worried an invasion of the Ukraine will.eventually spill over into NATO territory.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #455
I really get the feeling that something is inevitable. I'm still not sure it's a Russian invasion. Russian statements continue to the effect that Ukraine is planning to attack the LDNR. To lie, so blatantly and publicly, with no real excuse for it, would backfire pretty hard in my opinion. Either way, we should see something soon. The heavy presence of Russian troops in Belarus also raises questions. And Ukrainian sources keep talking about Russian troops not being ready for an offensive. It's all very murky.
Meanwhile the US and Poland have deployed a solid number of troops near the border. Realistically there is very little chance of a Russian invasion of Ukraine spilling over into Poland. There is a much greater chance of Russia having to halt the offensive, at least for an operational pause (to reinforce and resupply) before even completing the takeover of Eastern Ukraine. Unless of course the VSU (Ukrainian Armed Forces) collapse completely in the first few days.
EU threatens sanctions on Russia’s financial, energy sectors in event of Ukraine invasion
EU sanctions would target Russia’s financial and energy sectors if Moscow opts to invade Ukraine, EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said Friday. The UK, US and Estonia also urged their nationals…
Quite interesting opinion from the side that is not completely pro-US and not pro-Russian (watch the video).
I also wonder - if in case of Russian full-scale invasion - what are their plans afterwards? I mean, the region will definitely be sanctioned in LDNR / Iran style and there will be no way to export anything, so the Russia will need to pay for it in the same way as it does for Chechnya / LDNR / Pridnestrovie, and it is LOADS of money, even compared to the current expenses. Does Russia really have enough money for it? It can of course provide money for some period of time, but it is 10s or 100s of millions of dollars, that will drain the budget quickly.
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I have just read somewhere that US sends 3000 more soldiers to Poland.
Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
An attack on DNR/LNR would be a double loss for Ukraine. It would waste what little valuable munitions it has, on an enemy that has the inherent defensive advantage, thus depleting its own forces before an engagement with Russia, which at that point would be assured.
That would be a fairly dangerous Maskirovka. Russia already committed more forces than it can afford, near Ukraine. It left much of its other regions under-staffed. It would face a real danger from its other neighbors. It is possible Russia is banking on China to protect some of its interests, like the Kuril islands.