Part 1 of 2: Attempt at showing might is right at Ayungin Shoal
I think the Philippines should guard those supply vessels next time with their coast guard vessels.
1. This is not the first time China blocked resupply. In 2014, China blockaded the Sierra Madre for weeks, forcing the Philippines to resupply by air and eventually run the blockade — with the US just watching without intervention — which is a correct position to take.
2. Not matter how many vessels the Pinoys send, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) can send more, if they wanted to. The CCG are just reminding the Pinoys, on who is boss.
(a) In fact, on 16 Nov 2021, the Pinoys were outnumbered 3:2, where three (3) Chinese vessels blocked and water cannoned two (2) Philippine supply boats en route to transport food supplies to Philippine military personnel in Ayungin Shoal.
(b) EU Spokesperson for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Nabila Massrali reiterated the EU’s “strong opposition to unilateral actions that endanger peace, security, and stability” in the disputed waters. “Furthermore, the European Union emphasizes the importance for all parties to respect freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea,” Massrali said. She urged both China and the Philippines to resolve disputes through peaceful means in accordance with international law, in particular UNCLOS.
(c) “In this context, the EU recalls the Arbitration Award rendered under UNCLOS on 12 July 2016, which found that Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal lies within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone and continental shelf,” Massrali said.
(d) Japanese Ambassador Kazuhiko Koshikawa said Tokyo “strongly opposes” unilateral attempt to change the current situation in the East and South China Seas and called on countries to comply with the 2016 arbitral award.
3. The US Department of State warned Beijing that the US would intervene to defend Philippine ships in the event of an armed Chinese attack, following an incident in which Chinese naval vessels used water cannons against Philippine resupply boats in the South China Sea. Department spokesman Ned Price called the Chinese action “dangerous, provocative and unjustified.”
The US Department of State will make the appropriate noise which will be ignored by China but despite the above, I predict the CCG will back-down soon, because it’s a own goal by the Chinese leadership in the Pinoy-Chinese bilateral relationship (that can affect the local elections).
(a) On 22 Nov 2021, Lorenzana said the Philippine ships had resumed their operations: “Yes, they left Palawan for Ayungin this morning and will arrive tomorrow morning at the [BRP] Sierra Madre.”
(b) Long criticized for his
soft approach on China, even President
Rodrigo Duterte issued a statement of condemnation at a summit between ASEAN and China. The Philippine leader, in prepared remarks, said: “We abhor the recent event in the Ayungin Shoal and view with grave concern other similar developments. This does not speak well of the relations between our nations and our partnership."
4. The Pinoys have the capability to resupply, even when blocked by the CCG — they just need to get assets in place to resupply by air. What the CCG is doing is quite pointless.
www.pna.gov.ph
