Royal New Zealand Navy Discussions and Updates

[ngatimozart]

I'm unclear of the significance of Vard partnering with local engineering consultancy Beca to provider technical support to MinDef for the SOPV project. Does this give their designs the inside running, or will they be excluded from consideration on conflict-of-interest grounds?

The Vard 7-115 you highlight certainly ticks many of the boxes, but does it come in ice-hardened form? I understand Canada's new AOPS class are based on an ixe-strengthened version of the smaller Vard 7-100, so I assume it is feasible (but perhaps costly?).

I think that you will find that @MrConservative included the VARD 7-115-OPV item as an information item only. He used the term BTW - By The Way. As it is it would have to be significantly modified to meet the RFI requirements.

I am picking that the VARD 9-203 is in the running for the SOPV at the moment. Time will tell of course.

Just to add something to the OPV mix pot, the VARD 7-115-OPV could be a contender as a third OPV and as the Otago Class OPV replacement.

 

[MrConservative]

Rule 12M of the Government Procurement Rules which pertains to military and essential security interests is the opt clause if the MoD/NZDF can get sign off on certain criteria for a single source acquisition without needing to go through all the GPR regime. The criteria for an opt out mainly rests on the fact that the proposed SOPV will be utilised by agencies covered by the Whole of Government Direction, additional to the NZDF. This is allowed for through Cabinet Office Circular (13) 4 which related to s107 of the Crown Entities Act 2004.

The VARD 7-115 would make for a good WLG and OTG replacement though.

 

[Stampede]

Some of us have different answers to that question depending upon where we stand on the defence spectrum. My own views are well known by now and are towards the more muscular side than some others. How we would do it would mean more funding and greater commitment from the pollies who unfortunately are a more of an extensial threat to NZDF than any foreign enemy.

Part of the golden answer will be both the funding for the build and funding to sustain the future fleet for the decades to come.
Not too optimistic about getting the dosh you may want for the muscular fleet envisaged.

Don't get me wrong I can understand the need, but the track record suggests compromise.

If funds are limited, then some very smart choices will need to be made to get the most capability for dollars spent.

On the premise that availability gives capability, does that suggest more hulls with less muscle or is it the other way around.
A couple of hulls with more clout.

Regards S

 

[ngatimozart]

Part of the golden answer will be both the funding for the build and funding to sustain the future fleet for the decades to come.
Not too optimistic about getting the dosh you may want for the muscular fleet envisaged.

Don't get me wrong I can understand the need, but the track record suggests compromise.

If funds are limited, then some very smart choices will need to be made to get the most capability for dollars spent.

On the premise that availability gives capability, does that suggest more hulls with less muscle or is it the other way around.
A couple of hulls with more clout.

Regards S

Agree getting the funding is going to be the problem. I have heard that standing them barefoot on hot coals tends to elicit favourable responses but for some strange reason people seem to regard it as unconstitutional, illegal, and immoral. Drat.

As the geopolitical and geostrategic situation further deteriorates, I think that it will slowly dawn on both the political and bureaucratic elites that they are going to have to get really serious about the situation. People here are becoming more concerned as time goes by and most of the commentators, all of the media, pollies and their focus groups are missing that. I spend time reading the comments sections of news articles and on social media WRT defence and security stories just to gauge peoples mood. It's unscientific but I have been noticing a change over the last couple of years, with people being concerned about Chinese activities possibly leading to conflict and we aren't prepared for it. The Chinese trade war with Australia also woke a few ideas up and the shipping problems created by the COVID-19 pandemic have shone a light on our reliance upon seafreight and a complete lack of NZ flagged ships to fill the gaps.

 

[John Fedup]

IIRC there seems to a desire for a SOPV that is somewhat larger than the AOPS Harry DeWolf due to Southern Ocean wave heights. The DeWolf’s main advantage is it is ice capable and is production. It uses a CMS similar to what both the RCN and RNZN currently use on frigates. Whether Irving can come up with a competitive price is debatable.

 

[ngatimozart]

IIRC there seems to a desire for a SOPV that is somewhat larger than the AOPS Harry DeWolf due to Southern Ocean wave heights. The DeWolf’s main advantage is it is ice capable and is production. It uses a CMS similar to what both the RCN and RNZN currently use on frigates. Whether Irving can come up with a competitive price is debatable.

The Southern Ocean wave climate is different to the North Atlantic wave climate and ongoing research is showing that. It's been found that the significant wave height is approximately 4 metres higher and the mean wave periods about 4 - 6 seconds longer than those in the North Atlantic. I do have a copy of this DTA paper about the Southern Ocean wave climate but I will not be posting a link to it here because I don't have permission to.

The fetch in the Southern Ocean is basically unlimited and at any given time there are five low pressure systems - storms spinning off the Antarctic continent into the Southern Ocean. So you have these five low pressure systems circling across the bottom of the world as they make their way north. This is basic NZ and Australian climatological knowledge taught in first year Uni atmospheric science courses.

Up until now Lloyd's of London and other maritime organisations have been using the North Atlantic classification system to certify ships for the Southern Ocean, but the NZDF DTA have found this to be somewhat inaccurate and are proposing a Southern Ocean Classification System to the appropriate Classification Authorities.

 

[Nighthawk.NZ]

Up until now Lloyd's of London and other maritime organisations have been using the North Atlantic classification system to certify ships for the Southern Ocean, but the NZDF DTA have found this to be somewhat inaccurate and are proposing a Southern Ocean Classification System to the appropriate Classification Authorities.

There was no study till only a few years ago and as you said used the North Atlantic Ocean as a comparison... the difference is there is no landmass nearby to effect and wave or weather patterns...

An interesting discussion about the southern ocean study and what they found. According to Sally Garrett (some science lady that knows her stuff) basically said since the study the RNZN no longer send the OPV's to the Southern Ocean
Characterising the Southern Ocean and Ross Sea Wave Climate

 

[Rob c]

Agree getting the funding is going to be the problem. I have heard that standing them barefoot on hot coals tends to elicit favourable responses but for some strange reason people seem to regard it as unconstitutional, illegal, and immoral. Drat.

As the geopolitical and geostrategic situation further deteriorates, I think that it will slowly dawn on both the political and bureaucratic elites that they are going to have to get really serious about the situation. People here are becoming more concerned as time goes by and most of the commentators, all of the media, pollies and their focus groups are missing that. I spend time reading the comments sections of news articles and on social media WRT defence and security stories just to gauge peoples mood. It's unscientific but I have been noticing a change over the last couple of years, with people being concerned about Chinese activities possibly leading to conflict and we aren't prepared for it. The Chinese trade war with Australia also woke a few ideas up and the shipping problems created by the COVID-19 pandemic have shone a light on our reliance upon seafreight and a complete lack of NZ flagged ships to fill the gaps.

The big problem is that by the time the pollies wake up they will be at least a decade, possibly 2 decades too late. The other problem is that in the last 30 years defence spending as a portion of GDP has been decreased big time to a point were we do not have any significant defence ability. I would guesstimate that the loss too defence in todays values could be in the region of $80B to $100B, or even more over that 30 year period and to rebuild would take in the region of 20 to 30 years. Time which we may not have as the world situation is steadily deteriorating.
The problem I see in the SOPV RFI is that they are try to do too much with one vessel and will get a vessel that is very compromised with functions it may never use. For example the speed is little faster than an open ocean fishing vessel but is probably dictated by the need for summer ice breaking. Any vessel in our very small navy which cannot perform a useful function if we are involved in a deteriorating strategic situation is in my view wrong.
The Antarctic requirements that have been added to the SOPV should be a separate civilian vessel paid for by a civilian agency.

 

[spoz]

Vard 7-110 (USCG OPC) cost is north of USD 400 million a copy and I think that excludes GFE. Would NZ be up for two or more ships at that sort of unit costs for an Otago replacement? The 7-115 is a much bigger ship than the OPVs, and with the SOPV up and running (hopefully) would the extra size and cost be needed?

 

[John Fedup]

I wonder if Irving has suggested to junior that an extended visit to NZ by Harry DeWolf with an invitation to NZ decision makers and the RNZN to evaluate the ship for NZ? Sure the crew would love the visit, perhaps not the vicious Southern Ocean sea states but probably better than pointy end stuff being fired at them.

 

[MrConservative]

Vard 7-110 (USCG OPC) cost is north of USD 400 million a copy and I think that excludes GFE. Would NZ be up for two or more ships at that sort of unit costs for an Otago replacement? The 7-115 is a much bigger ship than the OPVs, and with the SOPV up and running (hopefully) would the extra size and cost be needed?

USD$400m for a VARD 7-110? No.

And hopefully we aren't stupid enough to contemplate doing so at a US Yard at those sort of over inflated costs stemming from byzantine USCG procurement practices. The adjective ""troubled""is often used to describe the Heritage Class project.

The USCG $400m+ figure is the cost of the project. $10.5B over 25 ships. The initial contract for the first USCG hull was for USD$110m in 2016. I read of another contract for around $41m for GFE but cannot find the link. But it has spiralled into a farce in my view.

Eastern Shipbuilding Wins Coast Guard Offshore Patrol Cutter Contest

The Coast Guard has awarded Eastern Shipbuilding a $110.3 million contract for the service's Offshore Patrol Cutter program.

news.usni.org

The Taiwanese Coast Guard have somehow managed to build four slightly larger, but no doubt less equipped VARD 7 -125's for $392m. Could be a bit slap dash, but an efficient shipyard with good standards and trained workers should be able to knock out a ship-shape Protector replacement for somewhere between the two.

The Protector Class replacement has a budget window of NZD$600m-$1B. The SOPV has a budget window of NZD$300-$600m.

 

[MrConservative]

I wonder if Irving has suggested to junior that an extended visit to NZ by Harry DeWolf with an invitation to NZ decision makers and the RNZN to evaluate the ship for NZ?

I heard that he might be going back to Drama teaching at a girls school next week? But if not Jacindarella will would be keen.

Sure the crew would love the visit, perhaps not the vicious Southern Ocean sea states but probably better than pointy end stuff being fired at them.

One of your ships showed up a few days ago at Devonport NB. Poor buggers, with Auckland being locked down and it being a miserable winter.

 

[John Fedup]

I heard that he might be going back to Drama teaching at a girls school next week? But if not Jacindarella will would be keen.

One of your ships showed up a few days ago at Devonport NB. Poor buggers, with Auckland being locked down and it being a miserable winter.

They are likely use to miserable weather but the lockdown would be bad news for sure. Online beer delivery would help though!

 

[Stampede]

Agree getting the funding is going to be the problem. I have heard that standing them barefoot on hot coals tends to elicit favourable responses but for some strange reason people seem to regard it as unconstitutional, illegal, and immoral. Drat.

As the geopolitical and geostrategic situation further deteriorates, I think that it will slowly dawn on both the political and bureaucratic elites that they are going to have to get really serious about the situation. People here are becoming more concerned as time goes by and most of the commentators, all of the media, pollies and their focus groups are missing that. I spend time reading the comments sections of news articles and on social media WRT defence and security stories just to gauge peoples mood. It's unscientific but I have been noticing a change over the last couple of years, with people being concerned about Chinese activities possibly leading to conflict and we aren't prepared for it. The Chinese trade war with Australia also woke a few ideas up and the shipping problems created by the COVID-19 pandemic have shone a light on our reliance upon seafreight and a complete lack of NZ flagged ships to fill the gaps.

Yep, barefoot on hot coals is probably out.

Big defence projects like a ship/ships replacement is a grand commitment in resource's and time.
The result is a " capability " which you really only get one shot at.

I feel the two frigate navy ( ANZAC Class ) has not served you well but for good luck in so far not being truly tested.
Going forward these ships and what replaces them may not have such a luxury.

That said, I'm wondering if funds are still not seeing the light of day, if NZ are faced with a maritime equivalent as to what the Airforce faced with the replacement of the A-4 Skyhawks.

That been a fleet without a Frigate/ Destroyer sized vessel.
Certainly not my preference, but realistically with limited funds one would want to get the proper balance of options right across defence.

If such a scenario is creditable, then the fleet will look very different in the decades ahead and the consequent options it give s government.
Some reluctant consideration may want to go into this proposition.

Then again some recognition of a changing world may get traction from those living in the land of the long white cloud.

Unfortunately I'm not so optimistic that will happen.
ngatimozart as your the local, I do trust the tea leaves read in your favour and I'm wrong.




Regards S

Ps you still can't employ the bare feet on hot coal treatment.

 

[ngatimozart]

There was no study till only a few years ago and as you said used the North Atlantic Ocean as a comparison... the difference is there is no landmass nearby to effect and wave or weather patterns...

An interesting discussion about the southern ocean study and what they found. According to Sally Garrett (some science lady that knows her stuff) basically said since the study the RNZN no longer send the OPV's to the Southern Ocean
Characterising the Southern Ocean and Ross Sea Wave Climate

Yes I have a copy of the video. IIRC you're a droggie so you will have a reasonable understanding of the topic. Because the wave periods are longer than in the North Atlantic it also means the the mean wave lengths are longer than those in the North Atlantic. The longer the wave length the quicker the wave velocity. That's basic wave theory. A wave is a method for the transfer of energy from the atmosphere to the ocean and it transfers energy through water. Water particles do not move through the water with a wave but remain in situ. They wobble instead.

Most of Antarctica is like a dome, a massive ice dome with the South Pole sitting on a 4km thick sheet of ice. So this results in very strong katabatic winds coming off the pole. By the time they reach the coastal regions of the continent they can achieve pretty impressive velocities. During the winter the interior continental temperature is somewhat cold around the -80°C to -50"C range. Cold air being dense hugs the ground and that's why katabatic winds flow downhill. At the same time upper atmospheric circulation processes transport air from lower latitudes near the equator and tropics to the polar regions. This air has subsequently cooled and is deposited over the polar regions in high pressure regions. The katabatic air as it reaches the oceans moves further out, is warmed by heat rising as moisture is evaporated from the oceans by the sun. This heat transfer causes low pressure systems because the air is less dense and it rises taking the moisture with it. The earth's rotation results in the coriolis force which causes the rising air to rotate and as more energy is introduced into the system through heat rising from the ocean surface, the more energetic the low pressure system becomes. In the tropics these can eventually form tropical cyclones / typhoons.

 

[MrConservative]

DSEI 2021 day 1 with Xavier from Naval News.

He covers Sea Breaker, Sea Serpent for the Royal Navy, the new VARD 7 115 OPV/Light Combatant posted above and the new Cube concept which is being put as a proposal for the next generation Danish OPV's.

 

[JohnJT]

Just to add something to the OPV mix pot, the VARD 7-115-OPV could be a contender as a third OPV and as the Otago Class OPV replacement.

Only bad thing about the VARD 7-115-OPV is the relatively large crew size.

Speaking of OPV replacements, the Fassmer OPV 80 S has to be the most flexible, badass 80m OPV I've ever seen:
Mk 41 VLS! 8 x SSM! 11t helo! Towed sonar array! 76mm gun!

https://www.fassmer.de/fileadmin/user_upload/6_Fassmer_Defence/21_06_FD_Sb_OPV_80_S_web.pdf

 

[kiwi in exile]

Only bad thing about the VARD 7-115-OPV is the relatively large crew size.

Speaking of OPV replacements, the Fassmer OPV 80 S has to be the most flexible, badass 80m OPV I've ever seen:
Mk 41 VLS! 8 x SSM! 11t helo! Towed sonar array! 76mm gun!

https://www.fassmer.de/fileadmin/user_upload/6_Fassmer_Defence/21_06_FD_Sb_OPV_80_S_web.pdf

Less armed but more versatile: the fassmer MPVs 90-120m
Multirole
These would have great utility for a navy like ours. They are allready more heavily armed than our current patroll fleet (main gun <76mm, 1 or 2 smaller autocannon and CIWS/SeaRAM). plus heli decks fore and aft

 

[old faithful]

Maybe run it by China, you know, to make sure they are OK with it.

@old faithful

Play nice please

Alexsa

 

[ngatimozart]

Less armed but more versatile: the fassmer MPVs 90-120m
Multirole
These would have great utility for a navy like ours. They are allready more heavily armed than our current patroll fleet (main gun <76mm, 1 or 2 smaller autocannon and CIWS/SeaRAM). plus heli decks fore and aft

Only bad thing about the VARD 7-115-OPV is the relatively large crew size.

Speaking of OPV replacements, the Fassmer OPV 80 S has to be the most flexible, badass 80m OPV I've ever seen:
Mk 41 VLS! 8 x SSM! 11t helo! Towed sonar array! 76mm gun!
View attachment 48493

https://www.fassmer.de/fileadmin/user_upload/6_Fassmer_Defence/21_06_FD_Sb_OPV_80_S_web.pdf

Both those vessels are interesting and just to throw another two into the mix, there's this:
https://www.fassmer.de/fileadmin/user_upload/6_Fassmer_Defence/21_06_FD_Sb_PK_90_web.pdf and this: https://www.fassmer.de/fileadmin/user_upload/6_Fassmer_Defence/21_06_FD_Sb_MPV_120_web.pdf. Both have distinct advantages.