Afghanistan War

[Terran]

IS and AQ are actuallly slightly diffirent in terms of ideology and how they planned to achieve their ultimate aims.

IS started out as part of AQ. The Difference is primarily that IS views it’s self as the Caliphate, the Governing body as well as the Army. AQ views it’s self as an army without boarders dedicated to forming a global Islamic wahabist caliphate. AQ legitimizes itself in Afghanistan by pledging allegiance to the Taliban. IS pledges allegiance to itself.

Which is why I think my allegory does make sense. The historic SA was part of the NAZI party true yet it also shifted ideology at the head with its leaders sometimes butting heads with the top of the Nazi Party. The SS came in as a more in line with the leadership of the party and it’s directives. Which is why Hitler historically eventually purged the SA it was getting out of control of the central leadership. Either way it was still evil with the same goals. Purging the SA got the third riche going faster to it’s Horror show of history.
The relationship between the AQ and IS very by region and situation. In many places IS and AQ have been known to fight in others on occasion work together. Their leadership and ideology may differ now but both take the same root. I think fighting IS but ignoring or worse aiding AQ still ends up in the same situation. The lesser of two evils doesn’t change as in the effort to aid one you have made that the greater of evils. Unlike the Mujahadin of the Afghan Soviet war this has no potential saving grace here. If you aid an AQ aligned group the end game is just as bad as doing so an IS group. It’s the same disconnect.

Siding with the Taliban doesn’t help stabilize. As it’s deeply connected to not just AQ but both the Pakistani Taliban whom work to destabilize Pakistan and other Wahabist groups who sided with the Taliban. I mean Russia officially lists the Taliban as a Terror group. They even well giving assurances set about moving to arm and sure up neighboring states security as Afghanistan is likely to be used as a staging area for farther insurgency. Additionally Russia hopes that the Taliban will suppress the Heroine trade. A long shot as it’s a good bet the weapons and equipment the Taliban use are already funded by Poppy plantations.
India may have meetings with the Taliban but they have to know that the hand they shake today will be used to bomb Mumbai tomorrow.
China really wants Afghanistan’s resources and will happily pay whoever they think they can whatever bribes be needed to get it. Yet they are just as likely to suffer the costs. Just a few weeks back the Pakistani Taliban targeted Chinese nationals in Pakistan.
Iran and the Taliban have gone back and forth between allies and enemies.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

This is opinion but siding with the Taliban and AQ to fight IS is like siding with the SA to fight the SS. They have the same goals same wants and endgame. Just one demands it today the other will impose changes to make it like they want over time.

This is a fair point. It's one thing to allow humanitarian aid, but actively helping the Taliban strengthen their position in Afghanistan by funding public services for them could lead to problems in the future.

As I predicted the Taliban are trying to present themselves as having "changed" to get western aid. But I think it's much too soon to be handing over thick wads of cash. I think the first world would be wise to demand concrete action rather than accept vague promises.

 

[oldsig127]

What the U S. preaches and what it actually does can differ greatly. The U. S. for its own interests will have to maintain a relationship with the Taliban.

When the PLO was desugnstrd a 'terrorist' organisation the U S. had contacts with it and tried to keep it a secret from the Isrralis. Even after Iran was declared a member of the "acid of evil' [itself a meaningless term]

That would be "Axis of evil", which IS meaningful to a native speaker of English, though whether it's helpful or not is questionable.

Nations saying one thing and doing another is unremarkable to the point of normalcy. It's a common task for diplomats to reconcile the two

oldsig

 

[John Fedup]

IMHO the Afghanistan $hitshow evacuation was an event that was destined to happen. The only variable was the timing. Both Trump and Biden knew the American public had enough. The exit was awful but in hindsight it might have been somewhat better but not by much. Probably the biggest problem was a lack of planning amongst the allied partners and the US, a C-F that will be remembered by Euro partners (maybe Canada but I doubt it).

 

[OPSSG]

Evolving role of Iran that opposes Pakistani influence in the incoming Taliban cabinet

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1435271104935960576

1. Mullah Hasan Akhund, returns to Kabul after 20 years and returns to a city that is very different from the one he departed then. And yet, the Taliban leadership decided to fill top posts in Afghanistan's new government on 7 Sep 2021, with many men who have not stayed in Afghanistan for 20 years; some like Mullah Yaqoob (Defence) and Siraj Haqqani (Interior) were guaranteed top jobs (but not all of the many Haqqani surnames on the cabinet list is necessarily from the Haqqani family or “Network”). The only “inclusivity” in their “acting cabinet” is bringing in the remains of their original leadership with its new generation. As I see it, this is not going to go well.


2. Mullah Hasan Akhund, named as prime minister, like many in the Taliban leadership derives much of his prestige from his close link to the movement's reclusive late founder Mullah Omar, who presided over its rule two decades ago. Akhund is longtime chief of the Taliban's powerful decision-making body Rehbari Shura, or leadership council. He was foreign minister and then deputy prime minister when the Taliban were last in power and, like many of the incoming cabinet, is under UN sanctions for his role in that government. 4 to 5 Gitmo detainees released in Berghdahl swap are now Taliban Ministers for Afghan Government.

3. Over 20-years, America has lost 2,442 soldiers and 3,846 private contractors and successive US governments have incurred an obligation to provide lifetime care for some 20,000 military veterans who bear the external and internal scars of this war. Then there are the large interest payments on money borrowed to fund the war.

4. As I said earlier, the Panjshir massacre of a few resistance fighters may not end positively for Taliban. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is making every effort to help end the suffering of the Afghan people and to form an inclusive government in Afghanistan that reflects the country's ethnic and demographic composition,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh, said and he added, “It is the will of the people that must finally be realized and determine the future of Afghanistan, not foreign intervention or any other conspiracy. Certainly, lasting peace can only be achieved through intra-Afghan dialogue between all groups,” he said.

​

(a) Underlining that Iran is closely following the developments in Afghanistan, Khatibzadeh warned, “I strongly warn that all red lines and obligations under international law should be observed.” The change in Iran’s tone toward the Taliban is the latest indication that the group urgently needs to address the concerns of its neighbors in a transparent way and avoid traps that could be set for it by some predatory players in the region who stand ready to drag Afghanistan into a costly and deadly power competition.​

​

(b) Khatibzadeh said, “The news coming out of Panjshir is concerning. Last night’s attacks [on Panjshir] are condemned in the strongest terms. Martyrdom of Afghan leaders is deeply regrettable.” Khatibzadeh said Iran was reviewing the reports of foreign intervention. “This should be reviewed,” he asserted. Khatibzadeh pointed out, “Afghanistan’s history shows that foreign intervention, both direct and indirect, has resulted in nothing but defeat for the aggressor force, and the Afghan people are independence-seeking and zealous, and certainly any intervention is doomed,” he said.​

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Evolving role of Iran that opposes Pakistani influence in the incoming Taliban cabinet

1. Mullah Hasan Akhund, returns to Kabul after 20 years and returns to a city that is very different from the one he departed then. And yet, the Taliban leadership decided to fill top posts in Afghanistan's new government on 7 Sep 2021, with many men who have not stayed in Afghanistan for 20 years; some like Mullah Yaqoob (Defence) and Siraj Haqqani (Interior) were guaranteed top jobs (but not all of the many Haqqani surnames on the cabinet list is necessarily from the Haqqani family or “Network”). The only “inclusivity” in their “acting cabinet” is bringing in the remains of their original leadership with its new generation. As I see it, this is not going to go well.

2. Mullah Hasan Akhund, named as prime minister, like many in the Taliban leadership derives much of his prestige from his close link to the movement's reclusive late founder Mullah Omar, who presided over its rule two decades ago. Akhund is longtime chief of the Taliban's powerful decision-making body Rehbari Shura, or leadership council. He was foreign minister and then deputy prime minister when the Taliban were last in power and, like many of the incoming cabinet, is under UN sanctions for his role in that government. 4 to 5 Gitmo detainees released in Berghdahl swap are now Taliban Ministers for Afghan Government.

I also just found this overview of the new Afghanistan's political leaders. I am afraid that the human rights for women in Afganistan will not improve much.

Afghanistan: Who's who in the Taliban leadership

What we know about the top figures in the militant group that has taken control of Afghanistan.

www.bbc.com

 

[STURM]

That would be "Axis of evil"

It was a typing error.

Siding with the Taliban doesn’t help stabilize.

No but maintaining some level of dialogue in order to keep track of Taliban efforts against IS and to coordinate the supply of humanitarian aid to the country in order to prevent things from getting much worse and eventually having consequences for neighbouring countries, does help stabilise things. Doesn't mean anyone is "siding" with the Taliban.

 

[STURM]

Iran and the Taliban have gone back and forth between allies and enemies.

There have been contacts and some form of cooperation over the years but they were never allies per see. Iran's main worry has always revolved against the fear of Wahabism [a Saudi export], the flow of drugs across the border and keeping a protective eye on the Hazaras. At point, in the 1990's when Iranian consular staff were butchered by the Taliban, the Iranians actually came close to invading. In addition to supplying the Hazaras with weapons Iran also did the same with the Northern Alliance. For the Taliban of course the Shia Iranians are heretics worthy of extermination.

Both sides will continue to cooperate for the sake of common interests but there will be no love lost between them.

On China sure it desires Afghanistan's resources but it also desires some level of security to have its investments safeguarded and some form of assurance from the Taliban. It's also worried that another period of turmoil in the country will eventually in one way or the other reach its borders.

The whole point of India having ties with the Taliban is to enhance its security. The Taliban has long resisted Pakistani attempts to keep it away from India and has had communications with India lasting years. The Indians will do all they can to benefit from this and like other countries seek long term involvement in the country, which if materialises will have play a small but not insignificant part in the country getting back in its feet again.

On Pakistan I've long pointed out that beneath the smiles it's actually very worried. Things getting more ratshit in Afghanistan will impact Pakistan more than any other neighbouring country - followed by Iran. The Taliban are far too independent for Pakistani liking and the Pakistanis have a host of issues to worry about [there are more Pashtuns in Pakistan then in Afghanistan], including unresolved overlapping claims along part of the Durand Line.
.

They even well giving assurances set about moving to arm and sure up neighboring states security as Afghanistan is likely to be used as a staging area for farther insurgency.

There is little to no possibility of an insurgency spreading - the conditions in neighbouring states are not ripe and the Taliban has no such interest. What worries Russia is the ideology spreading and eventually reaching the Caucasus.

 

[ngatimozart]

Sanction the hell out of the Taliban and only supply humanitarian aid.

Why, because you lost? What's that going to achieve? The US hates losing and it has a habit of seeking vengeance. Just ask the Vietnamese, or the Iranians. Or the rendition of people suspected of being Al Queada who were and some still are held in extra legal detention.

Sanctioning the hell out of the Taliban isn't going to achieve anything except create more enemies who will be willing to go on jihad against America. You have tried that before bullying and threatening those whom you don't like and don't understand. What has that achieved? Another military and diplomatic defeat. If you don't learn from this you will just continue repeating the cycle and who will gain the most from this? China and Russia. Think about it. What has the last 20 years done to America? It sure as hell hasn't done it any good.

 

[Terran]

Why, because you lost? What's that going to achieve? The US hates losing and it has a habit of seeking vengeance. Just ask the Vietnamese, or the Iranians. Or the rendition of people suspected of being Al Queada who were and some still are held in extra legal detention.

Sanctioning the hell out of the Taliban isn't going to achieve anything except create more enemies who will be willing to go on jihad against America. You have tried that before bullying and threatening those whom you don't like and don't understand. What has that achieved? Another military and diplomatic defeat. If you don't learn from this you will just continue repeating the cycle and who will gain the most from this? China and Russia. Think about it. What has the last 20 years done to America? It sure as hell hasn't done it any good.

Your half right Sactioning the Hell out of the Taliban won’t do anything.
US Economic sanctions only effect US organizations and companies from doing business by imposing a penalty. It’s soft power.
The rest of the world is open to do as they please. UN or international sanctions could be pushed but only in the security council. Russia and China (likely would veto as Permanent members) other groups will make their own decisions.
As to back lash? Are you kidding me? I don’t see such as doing anything but trying to to keep a buffer. Sanctions and Embargo simply a sovereign states right of saying they are not fighting nor trading.
Hell if anything it’s the least effective action that the US could take as it’s just a Boycott of a nation that will likely have no legitimate trade with the US anyway.
I don’t know where Sanctions and Embargo is an evil thing comes from. But If some one claims to launch a Jihad against the US because of it. They were probably just looking for any excuse to do such and Sanctions sound better than “it was Tuesday”.
So take the list and sanction embargo. It just means that the Taliban will have to trade with others outside the Dollar. Just like other nations under such do.

 

[STURM]

Your half right Sactioning the Hell out of the Taliban won’t do anything.
US Economic sanctions only effect US organizations and companies from doing business by imposing a penalty. It’s soft power.

More often than not it doesn't affect the ruling elite but the man on the street and his children. We saw this clearly during the 1990's with Iraq. It led to ordinary people suffering and dying but the Baath leadershio wasn't affected. May have looked great on State Department or White House briefings but the reality on the ground was very different.

 

[Terran]

Again international sanctions are highly unlikely. Given Russia and China especially the latter. As such American sanctions and or Embargo only effect American trade.
Most of the effects seen in places like Iraq, Cuba ecta are the results of internal economic failures. IE the guys at the top funneling the government coffers to their own pockets, fueling military expansion or failed planed economics.

 

[STURM]

I was referring to international sanctions in general, not specifically on Afghanistan. Yes economic failures and mismanagement on the part of the local leadership plays a huge role but the situation is made worst or exacerbated by international sanctions which are heavily pushed by certain countries. In the case of Iraq anything which had a dual purpose use was banned, this could range from certain medical equipment to children's pencils. The common theme is that in most cases international sanctions fail to affect the top leadership but can have devastating consequences on ordinary people.

 

[STURM]

All the neighbouring states [not just the ones with co ethnics] will be watching closely but unless something significant happens which changes their perception of things, none will provide material aid to anti Taliban forces - this is unlike the situation prior to the Taliban first taking power in 1996. What they probably will do is to use humanitarian aid, investments and some level of recognition as leverage against the Taliban.

The Russians for example still brands the Taliban as a terrorist organisation [the Taliban in the past recognised Chechen independence] but this will not be an obstacle to Russuan/Taliban ties. As Putin said, the Taliban taking power is a reality others have to accept/deal with. As long as the Taliban doesn't declare open season on the Hazaras and creates issues along the border, Iran will be quiet.

The "Diplomat" has a great article on the role Tajikistan plays and how the Panjshiris aren't looking to Tajikistan for help. In a link I previously posted, as part of a talk on Afghan tribalism and religion the speaker made a very intersting point of how no major Afghan ethnic group has ever called for a union or merger with co ethnics across the border.

 

[ngatimozart]

Again international sanctions are highly unlikely. Given Russia and China especially the latter. As such American sanctions and or Embargo only effect American trade.
Most of the effects seen in places like Iraq, Cuba ecta are the results of internal economic failures. IE the guys at the top funneling the government coffers to their own pockets, fueling military expansion or failed planed economics.

So why aren't US citizens allowed to travel or trade with Cuba. Hell's teeth even Cuba rum and cigars are illegal in the US and Cuba rum is some of the nicest in the world. WRT to US sanctions the US isn't adverse to sanctioning non US companies who trade with countries that the US have sanctioned. Look at the case of Iran when Trump unilaterally pulled out of the agreement with Iran. The US sanctioned anybody and everybody who broke its unilaterally imposed sanctions.

International sanctions most likely will not be occur but the US will most likely impose sanctions and expect everyone else to adhere to them. If they don't then the US will sanction them. That's their SOP. That's what has to change.

 

[Terran]

The Original Cuban Sanctions were imposed by the Kennedy Administration. Since then they have been retained for a number of reasons including humanitarian, as well as the state seizure of private property, the latter in particular effects Cuban Rum.
This said even Canadian citizens regularly trip to Cuba. Heck the American celebrity circuit has made it a vacation spot. I have yet to hear about Jay Z appearing on a sanctions list. It’s well known that those visits are funding the Military and Security regime in Cuba much the same for the Tourist who visit the DPRK. The Hotels, Resraunts and tourist traps are owned by a State owned company that is under the security system.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-cuba-military/cuban-militarys-tentacles-reach-deep-into-economy-idUSKBN1962VK
So the trips by Conan O’Brian, Oliver Stone, Kevin Costner, Katy Perry has been spent of late arming and equipping the guys who cracked the skulls of protesters.
The Title 3 prevision does have some teeth but only if those companies have a relationship with the US. So it comes down to a choice deal with one or the other. If you don’t have a US connection then do as you please. This hits multinationals because they often do have ties to the US.
Do you really think that the states under sanctions /Embargo would be behaving or living much different without sanctions/Embargo?
No.
They can still trade and do trade with major nations from China, Russia, India and the Middle East. All the sanctions do is prevent them from getting US stuff money that they would be using to do the same things they have been doing just more. The guys at the top would still be living it up well those on the street would still be as they are. It’s just that those on the street couldn’t even look over their shoulders as the guys on top would have even more arms, more thugs and more willingness to do as it pleased them. They often use them as a boilerplate excuse for their own failures.
In the last year people talked about Iran and the Vaccine as a sanctions issue. Yet they still had access EXPLAINER: Iran, despite sanctions, has routes to vaccines


Sanctions are in my view pretty useless. But they are at least something. An actual moral stand even if it’s a boycott to prove that you can pretend to talk and walk in the direction you espouse. Without them the only recourse would be military. Very few situations demand or would allow that. Removing them or defanging them would make them less than a slap on the wrist. Hell Some individuals whom have been put on sanctions lists wear them as a badge of honor. That should show you how little they actually do.
So Yes I Say if we have no aim to reestablish military operations and with the Taliban seemingly in control. At least sanction and Embargo. Why fund a group with established ties to Terrorist? Who shelters them and will likely be enabling them. It won’t stop a future 9-11 2.0. But at least un like 2001 we won’t find we bankrolled the Taliban who aided in one.

 

[John Fedup]

Indeed many Canadians vacation in Cuba, mainly due to cost and superior security compared to some other Caribbean destinations. I heard a wide range of views as to value for money though. Never been but seeing all those 1950s era US cars still running around would be interesting.

As for sanctions, they can work if everyone is on the same page to a degree (elites more or less immune) but being on the same page, pretty rare.

 

[Terran]

Indeed many Canadians vacation in Cuba, mainly due to cost and superior security compared to some other Caribbean destinations. I heard a wide range of views as to value for money though. Never been but seeing all those 1950s era US cars still running around would be interesting.

As for sanctions, they can work if everyone is on the same page to a degree (elites more or less immune) but being on the same page, pretty rare.

Off topic: most of those old cars have been gutted and Frankensteined. Spare parts not being available means that they just use the frame and body but drop third party engines and power trains in them. The country has had access to European and especially Chinese or Russian made cars but those go right to the government officials.

 

[Stampede]

Why, because you lost? What's that going to achieve? The US hates losing and it has a habit of seeking vengeance. Just ask the Vietnamese, or the Iranians. Or the rendition of people suspected of being Al Queada who were and some still are held in extra legal detention.

Sanctioning the hell out of the Taliban isn't going to achieve anything except create more enemies who will be willing to go on jihad against America. You have tried that before bullying and threatening those whom you don't like and don't understand. What has that achieved? Another military and diplomatic defeat. If you don't learn from this you will just continue repeating the cycle and who will gain the most from this? China and Russia. Think about it. What has the last 20 years done to America? It sure as hell hasn't done it any good.

Yep, we need to put our big boy pants on and continue to engage with this part of the world.

The Taliban may not be our cup of tea, but at the end of the day it's the millions of people who live in Afghanistan that need assistance.
Like it or not that assistance will be through and with the Taliban.

Lets turn defeat into an opportunity.


Regards S

 

[Redlands18]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...n-to-be-banned-from-playing-sport-taliban-say

Unfortunately it appears Women don't need to play sport The International Cricket Council(ICC) will be meeting in the next few weeks to discuss Afghanistan's status and I have little doubt the result will be suspension. This is unacceptable and put Afghanistan IMO in the same category as South Africa during the Apartheid era.