Afghanistan War

[Redlands18]

From memory I think that either the Greeks or Romans had a go at controlling Afghanistan some time ago and failed, probably the Greeks

Alexander held it for a while along with Iran and Iraq but that pre-dates Islam by about 1000 years

 

[STURM]

So I suppose it is now China's turn.

Actually it’s not China’s turn because it won’t seek to control the country the way others have and certainly won’t make the mistake of putting troops in. What China wants is to increase its influence in the country; driven by various strategic goals including accessing the country’s mineral resources.

 

[OPSSG]

Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI for a mission accomplished (like Bush Jr) — Part 5

Actually it’s not China’s turn because it won’t seek to control the country the way others have and certainly won’t make the mistake of putting troops in. What China wants is to increase its influence in the country; driven by various strategic goals including accessing the country’s mineral resources.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1431091853303164934

13. Some have predicted that within 5 years, China will be sucked in; but like you, I also disagree. China has already told the Taliban that they will recognise them, and most importantly, be the main sponsor of the proto-Afghan/Taliban state at the U.N. Security Council — the Taliban will soon discover what Chinese sponsorship means. Meanwhile, the Taliban have given most of the more important positions to militants from the most backwards province.

14. There seems to be no pleasing everyone in the jihadist community. ISIS are calling the Taliban an 'apostate militia.' Jihadists are watching and waiting to see if the Taliban will establish an Islamic state run by Shiaria law, and how strict it will be. Aware of concerns over women and girls, Taliban tweeted on 16 Aug 2021 an image of girls on their way to school, saying education for girls continues. They also posted a clip allegedly showing a Taliban official assuring a group of female doctors and nurses that they can continue to work. Some of Taliban’s foreign policy that includes positive messaging to neighbours, regional players and claim of wanting to establish an inclusive government that represents all, does not sit well with hardliners, including al Qaeda supporters.

15. A poll by CBS and YouGov shows that most Americans think the Afghan government and army carry a great share of the responsibility for the Taliban takeover, but, many survey participants also put considerable blame on Presidents Biden and Trump. Let me make a prediction: within 5 years or less, the Americans will seek to impose sanctions against the Taliban — only China has the will and means to veto such a resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

16. At that time, China has the option to work with the West (for its own agenda) or it may not, depending on the issue — with information on their stance informed by the 2nd Bureau and SOEs. As I see it, the CCP are not going to indulge the Afghans with cash infusions, the way the West has done (with their aid giving mentality).

​

(a) On the economic side, China has invested in multiple large-scale projects in Afghanistan since 2001, not least a US$4.5 billion copper mine near Kabul and a US$300m petroleum project in the north of the country. New investments require a level of stability and security in the region above the current levels, let alone if the country disintegrates after the U.S. withdrawal. For any new project, China will need to extract concessions, including to provide security, from each relevant Taliban faction for every dollar their SOEs spend in Afghanistan. For these deals, all they need to do is break-even. But due to Taliban incompetence at public administration, the house of cards that is called Afghanistan, will fall much further.​

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(b) Interestingly, within less than a week of the fall of Kabul, two Chinese publishers contacted Dr. Mike Martin in order to start acquiring the Chinese rights to “An Intimate War.” An Intimate War tells the story of the last 34 years of conflict in Helmand Province, Afghanistan as seen through the eyes of the 150 Helmandis. It demonstrates how outsiders have most often misunderstood the ongoing struggle in Helmand and how, in doing so, the British and Americans have exacerbated the conflict, perpetuated it and made it more violent — precisely the opposite of what was intended when their interventions were launched. Of course, the West translated all the Russian works on Afghanistan when George Bush give the order to invade Afghanistan. Like those efforts, China is building on published knowledge of what went wrong and meeting the power brokers for themselves.​

​

(c) China may also sponsor the children of Afghan power brokers/warlords to study in China, where a resource extraction deal has been entered by a Chinese SOE. In this case, these children are modern day versions of ‘hostages’, to ensure good behaviour by the localpower broker/warlord — if that warlord can stay in power long enough. Upon completion of training in China, they will also serve to run the mine or local business for the SOE. That’s win-win mentality needed to do deals.​

 

[ngatimozart]

From memory I think that either the Greeks or Romans had a go at controlling Afghanistan some time ago and failed, probably the Greeks

It was Alexander The Great and he was the only one to. He let the conquered rule themselves and had wives from conquered ruling houses. As long as they recognised him as their King.

 

[Ananda]

2 US lawmakers' Kabul trip prompts Biden administration fury

Two members of Congress flew unannounced into Kabul airport in the middle of the ongoing chaotic evacuation, and their visit Tuesday stunned State Department and U.S. military personnel who had to divert resources to provide security and information to the lawmakers.

apnews.com

In Indonesia, there's always cynical view when some parliement members when to any disaster or emergency operations. They come, doing nothing, ask for priveleges treatment, and basically only doing photo up while distrubing operations.

Seems that kind of behaviour now also being done by Bipartisan US Congress. What the heck the bipartisan leadership in US Congress thinking ? Are they want to have last photo up in Afghanistan that still under control by US Military ? Could make good selfie though.

Meanwhile, the Taliban have given most of the more important positions to militants from the most backwards province.

That's where their main constituency based right ? In some way, the Taliban rapid movement is because it's come from some rural grassroots, against Urban more educated ones. The problem is those grassroots doesn't see the kind of educations that the Urban elites have, are the kind that they think appropriate for them.

In some way Taliban like Khmer Rougue. Their first term, they are doing 'reeducation' movement. Question will be of on this second term, they will doing or not.

 

[peterAustralia]

Going off script again. To the best of my knowledge the ANA had no tanks. I was thinking if they had 200 old T55 tanks, they would be useful in defending towns, outposts etc. Obviously Smaller lighter faster armoured vehicles for everyday war fighting, but to protect towns, cities etc IMHO a few tanks in any given locality would provide a degree of protection, be good for morale, reduce casualties among the infantry

If you are a every day ANA soldier, knowing that there are a couple of tanks embedded in your outpost would improve your view of the situation

I don't know if they would have made enough of a difference in the final outcome, however I feel they would have helped

It seems to fit into the narrative that the planning for the ANA was not as good as it could have been

 

[STURM]

At a recent virtual meeting with the heads of Central Asian states Putin spoke of the danger of Islamists making their way to the Central Asian states. Russia is also very worried of Islamist ideology making its way to the Caucasus; one reason why it decided to prop up Assad against IS and the various so called “moderate” groups the West backed and cultivated; many of which weren’t so “moderate” after all.

For the Taliban: they certainly plan ahead; having established contacts with China and Russia years ago. Even if both do not officially recognise the Taliban government; they provide some level of legitimacy for the Taliban and a level of diplomatic protection which only permanent UN Security Council members can provide.

CNN has a very interesting interview with Petraeus who touches upon various issues; including the peace negotiations (he notes that by not getting the Afghan government to participate alongside it in the peace talks the Afghan government was sidelined), the ANA, the Panjshir valley (isolated and in the longterm dependent on external help), U.S. policy, etc.

 

[STURM]

I don't know if they would have made enough of a difference in the final outcome, however I feel they would have helped

It would have made no difference. The Taliban attacked on a broad front in several axes; it had the initiative and the ANA was never able to counter this. Having a few T-54a/55s would have been great at a local tactical level but at a higher operational and strategic level the ANA wasn’t handicapped by its lack of tanks.

Traditionally; due to various factors tanks have not had a major role to play in Afghanistan’s numerous wars. The Soviets used them mainly for convoy escort and static defences.

 

[STURM]

It seems to fit into the narrative that the planning for the ANA was not as good as it could have been

Planning for many foreign armies which deployed to the country wasn’t as good as it should have been if we look at things in totality.

The ANA had various flaws/deficiencies but even if it had sound planning at a strategic level it would have been let down at an operational and tactical level. It had good units and commanders but not enough. Units were placed in unfavourable positions without the required support; with weak or exposed flanks; orders from above were lacking or confusing and the political leadership wasn’t up to the task. As a “learning organisation” (to quote John Nagl) the Taliban was much better. It did a good job exploiting its enemy's weaknesses and was able to mountain the momentum or get into its decision cycle.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Some have predicted that within 5 years, China will be sucked in; but like you, I also disagree. China has already told the Taliban that they will recognise them, and most importantly, be the main sponsor of the proto-Afghan/Taliban state at the U.N. Security Council — the Taliban will soon discover what Chinese sponsorship means.

That would require Afghanistan remaining stable. If Taliban rule breaks down then China will have a harder choice, although I expect they'd prefer to accept their investments be threatened than send large numbers of troops in. So long as commercial operations remain profitable they'd probably pay off whoever controlled the area in question.

Let me make a prediction: within 5 years or less, the Americans will seek to impose sanctions against the Taliban — only China has the will and means to veto such a resolution at the U.N. Security Council.

At the UN, yes. But it's also possible sanctions will be imposed outside the UN with other countries. I believe that sometimes in the past US financial institutions were ordered not to work with entities that broke those sanctions even if they were outside the US. China wouldn't join in but it would reduce avenues for funding for the Taliban.

As I see it, the CCP are not going to indulge the Afghans with cash infusions, the way the West has done (with their aid giving mentality).

Indeed. Although I'm not convinced as to how Chinese investments would support the country in the medium to long term given that Afghanistan is so impoverished. It's not like all it needs is some money to modernise infrastructure and then it will be flush with cash for its own purposes.

China doesn't care if people in Afghanistan starve, but it will reduce stability.

 

[pgclift]

Planning for many foreign armies which deployed to the country wasn’t as good as it should have been if we look at things in totality.

The ANA had various flaws/deficiencies but even if it had sound planning at a strategic level it would have been let down at an operational and tactical level. It had good units and commanders but not enough. Units were placed in unfavourable positions without the required support; with weak or exposed flanks; orders from above were lacking or confusing and the political leadership wasn’t up to the task. As a “learning organisation” (to quote John Nagl) the Taliban was much better. It did a good job exploiting its enemy's weaknesses and was able to mountain the momentum or get into its decision cycle.

The link is to a CNN video (warning graphic content) on the ANA Commandos CNN Video in the days before the fall of Afghanistan. Some key messages are, that they fought the Taliban until they ran out of ammunition from lack of support and probably guessing their fate surrendered to the Taliban only to be annihilated.

The second part of the video shows another glimpse of ANA Commandoes that had called for air and ground support that never arrived. Again, they surrendered (no mention about ammunition shortage) only to be killed.

It appears the Commandoes were not going to ‘melt away’ and were committed to engage with the Taliban to the end but were delt a very poor hand in the tasks they were given and how they were supported, if at all.

Anna Coren’s words at the conclusion of the video turned out to be very prophetic 1 month before the actual fall of Kabul.

 

[STURM]

I expect they'd prefer to accept their investments be threatened than send large numbers of troops in.

China will adopt a wait and see approach before increasing the level of investments in the country. Only after some level of stability has been achieved and only when the Taliban can provide some guarantees; will Chinese notch things up.

Although I'm not convinced as to how Chinese investments would support the country in the medium to long term given that Afghanistan is so impoverished. It's not like all it needs is some money to modernise infrastructure and then it will be flush with cash for its own purposes

No and I also doubt the Taliban are under any illusions that revenue from any single source will solve all or most of the country’s cash problems. The intention I’m sure is to generate as much revenue as possible from wherever they can to plug whatever gaps they can.

 

[Black Jack Shellac]

The oil pipeline would not only have to be laid across Afghan territory but also that of other countries before it can reach China itself.

China borders Afghanistan directly via the Wakhan corridor.

 

[Hone C]

China borders Afghanistan directly via the Wakhan corridor.

True, but this is extremely rugged terrain with no sealed roads. The only way across the border from China is over the 4900 m + Wakhjir Pass.

Certainly much more feasible from an engineering and financial perspective to transit Tajikistan or Pakistan, which is already hosting Chinese infrastructure projects.

 

[OPSSG]

Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI for a mission accomplished (like Bush Jr) — Part 6

17. I think that memory can be so selective. After the Sino-Soviet split, Kissinger sought to bring China over to the side of the West and for the remaining duration of the Cold War (after Nixon’s trip), Beijing was an ally of the West. And I remember a time when the US National Security Advisor was highly respected for geo-political competence — men like Henry Kissinger, Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski — who not only understood power but knew it’s limits. America needs to implement change after the Trump era to compete for influence in a multi-polar world but I am not sure if Team Biden can succeed in Pivot 2.0 — a simple 3 hour delay and talking point destroyed.

[rant on]
(A) After 4 years of Trump, I am just a little frustrated with the amount of racism that is being manifested in America be it against Muslims, Jews or the Chinese. Hate and identity politics as an agenda is not good for America.

China doesn't care if people in Afghanistan starve, but it will reduce stability.

(B) This rant is not directed at you. Maybe I am a little sensitive but I honestly find this line of thinking very unhelpful. Frankly, I am a little disappointed by some attempts to filter reality in this forum and imply an ‘evil’ motive that just is not there. Unlike Iran, China is a legitimate actor in UN Peacekeeping missions and in international diplomacy, with soft power projected by her SOEs.

(C) The surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban is a choice made by the West — who had an over ambitious agenda, backed by military force that could not ‘win’ the peace after 20 years.

(D) NATO forces invaded Afghanistan after invoking Article 5. In my view, you break it, you own it.

(E) At an abstract level, Beijing does care and really want to help Afghanistan but are limited in their understanding of local motivation. Beijing and it’s SOEs are trying to find a way to go into a war torn country that America, UK and the rest of NATO abandoned, by choice. I understand the hard choice made by President Biden but DO NOT expect street cred (or respect) for every choice made by the West. In contrast, China has a track record of giving aid and helping those who are on their side — for a better future in Afghanistan, Beijing’s SOEs are the only game in town.

(F) China’s wolf warriors are like America’s Neocons. They do not represent the best of the two respective countries.
[rant off]

18. It is correct to say that the Chinese are not idealists. Rather they are known to take an incremental step-by-step approach. Where the Chinese believe aid and development will make a difference — they will open up their wallets. For that to happen, Beijing will spend money and make an effort to build the local relationship in the hopes it will pay off. It may or may not work — time will tell. IMHO, the 2nd Bureau cannot be pleased with the persistent ISK threat at Kabul. In the days ahead, Chinese decisions on Afghanistan will be informed by:

(a) the deliberations of the Intelligence Bureau of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC or better known as or the 2nd Bureau; and​

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(b) data obtained from employees of SOEs whose role is to invest in Afghanistan (with more than 1/5 of all espionage is committed by these pseudo-commercial entities).​

True, but this is extremely rugged terrain with no sealed roads. The only way across the border from China is over the 4900 m + Wakhjir Pass.

Certainly much more feasible from an engineering and financial perspective to transit Tajikistan or Pakistan, which is already hosting Chinese infrastructure projects.

19. China can seal their border with Afghanistan. But China has invested heavily in Pakistan (which borders Afghanistan), in hopes of extending its Belt and Road Initiative to broaden China’s overseas reach by improving trade routes to areas like Tajikistan and other parts of Central Asia. At this time, Afghanistan appears far from ready to serve as a link in that chain — give it another 5 to 10 years. Since Deng, more than a billion have come out of poverty and starvation; and the Belt and Road Initiative, brings infrastructure development to the 3rd World that would otherwise not be possible. With Afghanistan or without it, the New Silk Road offers a compelling vision for cooperation and progress on a scale that would have been unimaginable a decade ago. But these are risky projects.

​

 

[OPSSG]

Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI for a mission accomplished (like Bush Jr) — Part 7

China will adopt a wait and see approach before increasing the level of investments in the country. Only after some level of stability has been achieved and only when the Taliban can provide some guarantees; will Chinese notch things up.

20. Agreed. Like you, I think Chinese leaders are in no hurry to pour money and manpower into an active war zone. They already have their hands full in Pakistan and Africa where thousands of specially detailed troops still cannot protect Chinese workers from attacks by local terrorists and separatists.

(a) Afghanistan’s most valuable assets are mineral and geographic. They are not going anywhere and no one else is going to snatch them from Beijing’s grasp. Better to let the dust settle first and deal with whoever prevails in the ensuing power.​

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(b) Belt and Road projects can fail and lead to greater sovereign debt but failure is not the intent. I am just doubtful the Taliban can work with Beijing in the next 5 years. China just does not have the risk management expertise to fund significant development projects in Afghanistan on the scale of ISAF, yet. The Taliban a proto-state — whether it evolves or shatters into further fragments, time will tell.​

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21. Most moderate Muslims l know are not celebrating the Taliban victory and I believe that in the longer run, the Afghan people are net losers. I believe that the residents of Kabul if they wanted, have the required population size needed to keep sending new fighters to resist the Taliban advance, for 5 to 10 years. This would have preserved their way of life in the city. Instead, the rural areas with their armed Taliban now rule the city.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430339146711633923

22. While Beijing is happy to see America humbled in Afghanistan, it will also have its own troubles managing the Taliban-CCP relationship. The road ahead is very rocky. The Taliban may be good insurgents but they are terrible at running any bureaucracy — so every Afghan ministry will become dysfunctional.

(a) Mullah Zakir (former Guantanamo detainee and Minister of Defence) is an Alizai. This is big tribe in Helmand. But tiny on the national stage. Will they evolve into the ‘Republican Guard’ of the Taliban? Or will infighting with other factions push them out? I am betting that the Helmandi tribes will stick together to amplify their voice on the national stage.​

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(b) For years, the Taliban and al Qaeda have used Baramcha town and Baram Cha, in Helmand, to host training facilities because it is located in the remote southern district and borders Pakistan’s Baluchistan province — ANSF have been unable to project power in the area. Baram Cha, a small town tucked into the Chagai Hills just inside the Afghan border, is a notorious hub of heroin processing labs, and has been raided by helicopter-borne teams of British special forces and ANSF commandos in the past.​

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(c) Reportedly, Gul Agha (Helmandi) is going to be finance minister, and he is not going to understand China’s belt and road loan schemes. Sardar Ibrahim (Helmandi) will be interior minister, who is not going to be able address Chinese concerns about the Uyghur insurgent group called the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The Helmandis went to Kabul to occupy the ministry of finance building and it paid off.​

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 2: Taliban beating reporters & UN staff is not news but dogs are

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430763893543129088

1. British troops are said to be down to their last rations with only the clothes they are wearing and day-packs so that time and flight capacity can be focused on Afghans. However, there is acknowledgement that the airlift will have to end some days before 31 Aug 2021. Meanwhile a British do gooder is doing more harm than good — with quite a lot of online support in the UK. Pen Farthing is trying to save his animal shelter’s animals before other humans, who are stuck at the airport and can’t get out. I JUST CANNOT understand the priority of these people.

2. So far, about 25 people have been killed in the past ten days around Kabul airport. Witnesses added that most of the victims were women and children who had died as a result of the crowds. The numbers killed can rise drastically, if a missile was fired at aircraft or a car bomb gets through.

​

(a) In a hundred years’ time, Afghans will be saying to each other ‘and they even took the dogs out before the Afghans’. There are civilian NGOs who chartered 3 aircraft but can’t get their 900 people to the airport.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430231520820797442

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(b) The Dutch government expects to run its last evacuation flight out of Afghanistan on 26 Aug 2021, it said in a letter to parliament, Reuters reports; and the last flight out for France will be on 27 Aug 2021. Meanwhile, Danish defence minister Trine Bramsen bluntly warned: “It is no longer safe to fly in or out of Kabul.” Denmark’s last flight, carrying 90 people plus soldiers and diplomats, already had left Kabul.​

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3. In sharp contrast to the British, 380 Afghans who worked for the Korean government in Afghanistan will arrive in South Korea. They will not be entering as refugees, but as people of merit to the country says the Korean Foreign Ministry.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1430780060286472194

4. The Taliban stopped an Afghan UN staff member as he tried to reach Kabul airport. They searched his vehicle, found his UN ID. Then they beat him. The incident is among dozens in an internal UN security document said. The Taliban did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the U.N. incident list. The group has said it would investigate reported abuses, and has also encouraged aid organisations to continue their work. Same story from TOLO reporter, Ziar Yaad, who was also beaten.

5. As a Singaporean who studied in the UK, with friends who deployed to Afghanistan, I know this is the norm there — it’s not a surprise that this happened.

 

[kato]

(b) The Dutch government expects to run its last evacuation flight out of Afghanistan on 26 Aug 2021, it said in a letter to parliament, Reuters reports; and the last flight out for France will be on 27 Aug 2021. Meanwhile, Danish defence minister Trine Bramsen bluntly warned: “It is no longer safe to fly in or out of Kabul.” Denmark’s last flight, carrying 90 people plus soldiers and diplomats, already had left Kabul.

Germany's last regular evacuation flight arrived in Uzbekistan about two hours ago (with 154 people onboard). There will be three more flights by German A400M today, but they will basically fly the soldiers and equipment brought in earlier back out. Any spare capacity on these flights will be used for evacuation purposes.
In total German aircraft have evacuated 5193 people, including 509 third-party nationals with neither German nor Afghan citizenship.
Formally the mandate for the German ecacuation - signed off in parliament yesterday - runs until Aug 30th. The early ending is - like in the Dutch case - due to the US "recommending" to other countries to cease operations there today as they will be withdrawing.

Meanwhile the Taliban are apparently now reopening Kandahar Airport for flights after repairs have concluded (the runway was damaged by several rockets in the fighting). The head of the World Food Programme announced a few hours ago that its planes that had been evacuated from Kabul and repaired in Pakistan will now fly Islamabad - Kandahar routes.

 

[ngatimozart]

The RNZAF C-130H did a run to Kabaul today (Thursday), as well as one yesterday. We have been able to track the US, RAAF, RNZAF and RAF evac flights on flight trackers until they are about 100 miles inside the Afghan border.

 

[STURM]

“Al Jazeera’s Charlotte Bellis, reporting from Kabul, said about 1,500 US passport holders meant to be evacuated remained in the capital.”

“The US and the Taliban have a deal. The Taliban are under strict instructions not to let anyone through without a passport, without a green card, without verified documents and there is confusion about what a verified document looks like,” she said.”

It comforting to know that the Taliban is cooperating and not hindering or obstructing the evacuation effort but then it would cooperate; as part of its PR rebranding exercise to show that it has mellowed down or has become more “moderate” (an often used term which can be misleading and mean slightly different things to different people). If indeed the CIA chief was in Kabul a few days ago; we can safely assume that the evacuation effort was on the top of the list of discussed topics. I wonder if the Taliban were given or offered anything in return for its cooperation.

Let’s all hope that things proceed smoothly without any trouble; everyone who needs to leave (including the former RM Commando turned NGO with his staff and animals) are able to leave. My thoughts also go out to the Afghans who would like to leave but are not able to. Lest we forget there will be dedicated UN staff and those of various NGOs who will remain in the country in order to do their jobs.

Unfortunately there is little to no news on what’s happening at the Panjshir valley. Naturally there will be negotiations but the Taliban will seek the handover of the territory; they simply can’t be in the position of not doing so; makes them look weak. Given the acute need for external help; it remains to be seen how long the anti Taliban forces can hold out indefinitely in the event of protracted hostilities. Unlike the case before 11th September 2001 when they received support from Iran, India and Russia the anti Taliban forces in the valley are alone now.