The Afghans themselves must agree they want to split the country and how. Secondly; which outside body or country will step in to help out and monitor implementation? Thirdly it could lead to a dangerous precedent. What is other countries demand the same or what if deferments of Pakistan’s large Pashtun population demands union with their brethren across the border?
Afghanistan War
- Thread starter gree0232
- Start date
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Is there any incentives for Taliban to take that route ? So far the only sizeable armed opposition left is the remnants of ANA and Northern Alliance. One province especially only Panjshir is not going to provide much opposition for them.
NA used to manage control Panjshir due to their geographic location. It's only accessable by few road, thus easy to isolate and control. We still don't know yet, if they will manage to hold off Taliban from Panjshir indefinitely like before or not. The one that matter now is how far the grip Taliban able to hold in the rest of country.
I do suspect if NA and remnant of ANA manage to hold on to Panjshir, they will be some kind of power sharing that Taliban need to made. This more on tribal area concession. Taliban need to take China capital in, and China will want some kind of stability to guard their Investment. They will prefer China money, rather then Western one, as so far China only think the return on their Capital and some kind of guarantee for their Investment from host nation. They will not care on any democracy and Woman rights like Western NGO wants.
So it's all will return to how far Taliban opposition can effectively force Taliban hand toward some kind of power concession on tribal area.
Indeed it’s an isolated area with many roads/passes which are easily interdicted. Prior to 11th September the Taliban with AQ fighters did actually make some inroads into the valley but of course the NA was much weaker then.
The ability of the Tajiks to hold out indefinitely will depend largely on the level of external help it receives. In the past aid came from Russia, India and Iran. The border with Tajikistan is of course a major plus point but Tajikistan by itself is limited in the level of material aid it can provide.
Sooner or later; one way or the other; the Taliban will have to sort out this issue. Having the Tajiks and other anti-Taliban elements holding out indefinitely does not make the Taliban look good. Apart from the Panjshir valley I believe another anti-Taliban holdout is where the Hazaras are concentrated in.
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Thought you might find this interesting; I did. It adds to what we already know about what makes the Taliban tick.
Explainer: The Taliban and Islamic law in Afghanistan
Taliban says women will have their rights ‘within Islamic law’, but what it means remains vague.
“The Taliban’s interpretation of Islamic law comes from “the Deobandi strand of Hanafi jurisprudence” – a branch found across several parts of southeast Asia, including Pakistan and India – and the group’s own “lived experience as a predominantly rural and tribal society”, according to Talha Abdulrazaq, a research fellow at the University of Exeter’s Strategy and Security Institute.
Independent Afghan analyst Ahmed-Waleed Kakar said: “The Taliban can best be understood as ‘classical’ in interpretation, or veering more toward scholars seen as orthodox, such as those from the Indian subcontinent and Middle East.”
In some ways there appears to be a disconnect between the upper echelons of the Taliban hierarchy and the troops on the ground. If the senior leadership don't start taking charge and enforcing discipline from the top down, then they may have a rebellion from within their own ranks by members who reckon that they are infidels. Interesting times.Thought you might find this interesting; I did. It adds to what we already know about what makes the Taliban tick.
Explainer: The Taliban and Islamic law in Afghanistan
Taliban says women will have their rights ‘within Islamic law’, but what it means remains vague.www.aljazeera.com
“The Taliban’s interpretation of Islamic law comes from “the Deobandi strand of Hanafi jurisprudence” – a branch found across several parts of southeast Asia, including Pakistan and India – and the group’s own “lived experience as a predominantly rural and tribal society”, according to Talha Abdulrazaq, a research fellow at the University of Exeter’s Strategy and Security Institute.
Independent Afghan analyst Ahmed-Waleed Kakar said: “The Taliban can best be understood as ‘classical’ in interpretation, or veering more toward scholars seen as orthodox, such as those from the Indian subcontinent and Middle East.”
Indeed. Commentators have long questioned how much say the Talib leadership actually has over the numerous commanders in the field; most of whom I’d assume have the bare minimum in comms. To date the Taliban has maintained a largely united front; it had to given the opposition faced but in coming years a schism night develop within the leadership over the future direction the organisation has to take.
www.aljazeera.com
“Now, a “new and improved” Taliban is in power in Afghanistan. This is the US’s parting gift to all Afghans. The Americans, who have been negotiating with the Taliban in Doha for months, were undoubtedly fully aware that the group would take over the country as soon as they pulled their troops out. Everything went according to their plans – they only slightly mismanaged optics at the Kabul airport.
“This new Taliban is markedly different from the Taliban of 20 years ago. This time around, its leaders want to be part of regional and global politics. It seems, during the Doha conferences, they realised that their resumption of power in Afghanistan now needs international recognition – they realised that to survive, they must rule, not terrorise.”
“Their first press conference clearly showed that the Taliban leaders had been watching quite a bit of BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera as they loitered in the lobbies and rooms of gaudy hotels in Doha. They can now schmooze and lie as skilfully as Barack Obama, and are far more believable than Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron put together.”
“In her pioneering study, Islamophobia and the Politics of Empire, Deepa Kumar mapped out in detail how the fear and loathing of Muslims was definitive to the imperial pedigree of the “war on terror” that commenced after 9/11 and syncopated with the war in Afghanistan.”
“If Afghans who think and believe and act differently than the Taliban do stay put in their homeland and fight fanaticism one day at a time, Afghanistan can eventually become something like Iran, or Pakistan, or India or even Turkey. If they stay and resist, without the weight of an occupying power, the Taliban will face the peaceful nobility of a dignified ancient nation that has civilised barbarians far worse than this murderous gang of fanatical power mongers – and it will crumble.”
“Afghanistan is the land that gave the world Rumi, the Herat school of art and architecture, countless other poets, philosophers, mystics, historians and scientists. It can handle a gang of “Proud Boys” in Pashtun gear too”
The new and improved Taliban: The parting US gift to Afghanistan
After promising democracy and delivering mayhem, the US leaves behind unshaven ‘Proud Boys’ to rule over Afghans.
“Now, a “new and improved” Taliban is in power in Afghanistan. This is the US’s parting gift to all Afghans. The Americans, who have been negotiating with the Taliban in Doha for months, were undoubtedly fully aware that the group would take over the country as soon as they pulled their troops out. Everything went according to their plans – they only slightly mismanaged optics at the Kabul airport.
“This new Taliban is markedly different from the Taliban of 20 years ago. This time around, its leaders want to be part of regional and global politics. It seems, during the Doha conferences, they realised that their resumption of power in Afghanistan now needs international recognition – they realised that to survive, they must rule, not terrorise.”
“Their first press conference clearly showed that the Taliban leaders had been watching quite a bit of BBC, CNN and Al Jazeera as they loitered in the lobbies and rooms of gaudy hotels in Doha. They can now schmooze and lie as skilfully as Barack Obama, and are far more believable than Donald Trump, Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron put together.”
“In her pioneering study, Islamophobia and the Politics of Empire, Deepa Kumar mapped out in detail how the fear and loathing of Muslims was definitive to the imperial pedigree of the “war on terror” that commenced after 9/11 and syncopated with the war in Afghanistan.”
“If Afghans who think and believe and act differently than the Taliban do stay put in their homeland and fight fanaticism one day at a time, Afghanistan can eventually become something like Iran, or Pakistan, or India or even Turkey. If they stay and resist, without the weight of an occupying power, the Taliban will face the peaceful nobility of a dignified ancient nation that has civilised barbarians far worse than this murderous gang of fanatical power mongers – and it will crumble.”
“Afghanistan is the land that gave the world Rumi, the Herat school of art and architecture, countless other poets, philosophers, mystics, historians and scientists. It can handle a gang of “Proud Boys” in Pashtun gear too”
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
That will be actual test for Taliban to form working government. All indication so far shown how the upper eschelon of present Taliban, knows well on conducting PR and Media. So basically they know the basic of 21st century international politics. Even now, if you looking some other forums, there are score (in my term Taliban 50cent army) posting 'news' from various online sources to "upgrade" Taliban image.
How they control it in the ground is always a questions. How they round up tribal politics in Afghanistan toward their 'new face' agenda is going to be interesting to watch.
At the request of the Taliban Iran has resumed the supply of oil. Not only does it provide a form of revenue the Iranians badly need but it enables dialogue between both countries and gives the Iranians some leverage. The flow of drugs; the possibility of refugees and the fate of the Shia Hazaras are matters which deeply concern the Iranian leadership.
Way before 11th September 2001 Iran was providing aid to anti Taliban forces and for a period cooperated with the U.S. over areas of mutual benefit. That the first countries which officially recognised the Taliban government in 1996 were Iran’s strategic competitors and also close U.S. allies only added to Iran’s fear and paranoia. At present like the West and other countries; Iran is deeply concerned about Afghanistan again becoming a “breeding ground for terror” (how I detest this cliche); for Sunni groups who view Shias as perfectly legitimate targets; no different to Western targets.
Apart from what has already been reported isn’t much news on the Panjshir valley. I could be wrong but unless external help is obtained is don’t see see how the Panjshir valley can indefinitely withstand a determined Taliban assault. On the evacuations from Kabul the Taliban has said that it will not agree to an extension; things could dicey. The international backlash would be severe but the Taliban could complicate matters if it chose to take certain steps to interfere or stop the evacuation effort.
www.aljazeera.com
“I think the new Iranian government will significantly expand cooperation with the Taliban government. Iran can easily double its trade with Afghanistan. The government of (Ashraf) Ghani was always trying to limit cooperation with Iran since Iran was under US sanctions,” Hosseini said”
Way before 11th September 2001 Iran was providing aid to anti Taliban forces and for a period cooperated with the U.S. over areas of mutual benefit. That the first countries which officially recognised the Taliban government in 1996 were Iran’s strategic competitors and also close U.S. allies only added to Iran’s fear and paranoia. At present like the West and other countries; Iran is deeply concerned about Afghanistan again becoming a “breeding ground for terror” (how I detest this cliche); for Sunni groups who view Shias as perfectly legitimate targets; no different to Western targets.
Apart from what has already been reported isn’t much news on the Panjshir valley. I could be wrong but unless external help is obtained is don’t see see how the Panjshir valley can indefinitely withstand a determined Taliban assault. On the evacuations from Kabul the Taliban has said that it will not agree to an extension; things could dicey. The international backlash would be severe but the Taliban could complicate matters if it chose to take certain steps to interfere or stop the evacuation effort.
Iran resumes a crucial lifeline to Afghanistan: Fuel
Taliban told Iran to continue exports of petroleum products which the latter had paused over safety concerns.
“I think the new Iranian government will significantly expand cooperation with the Taliban government. Iran can easily double its trade with Afghanistan. The government of (Ashraf) Ghani was always trying to limit cooperation with Iran since Iran was under US sanctions,” Hosseini said”
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Don't be surprised to see one or two oil and gas pipelines begin to start snaking across Afghanistan from Iran to the PRC. The PRC may have just solved its security of energy supply problems.
Shanesworld
Well-Known Member
.... Almost like it was part of some long term master plan. Hmmm
Indeed but the Taliban will have to do a very good/thorough job convincing the Chinese that it can guarantee security. Various plans for oil pipelines in the 1990’s went nowhere because of the security situation. Can it be argued that the overall security situation at present is much more secure/stable than it was the last time the last time the Taliban was in power?
The oil pipeline would not only have to be laid across Afghan territory but also that of other countries before it can reach China itself.
The oil pipeline would not only have to be laid across Afghan territory but also that of other countries before it can reach China itself.
No, most news focused on the evacuation at Kabul. Reports suggests the Taliban are moving forces towards the Panjshir valley, where some surviving ANSF have bolstered local militia, and there has been some fighting.
Anti-Taliban resistance group says it has thousands of fighters
The group says it wants to pursue peace, but if that fails it claims to have thousands of fighters ready.
www.bbc.co.uk
Taliban recapture 3 districts as Panjshir resistance refuses to surrender
Taliban fighters have mounted a counter-offensive against Panjshir resistance. Three districts which were captured by resistance forces earlier have been recaptured by Taliban. Taliban spokesman: districts of Bano, Deh Saleh, Pul-e-Hesar have been cleared of enemy forces. After recapturing...
www.hindustantimes.com
A lot of misinformation and propaganda being hurled around. Depending on who's telling the story, the Taliban have recaptured the lost districts and taken several positions at the entrance to the Panjshir valley, the resistance has closed the Salang highway, the Taliban have lost hundreds of fighters to ambushes in Andarab, etc.
There were reports of forces being raised by warlords such as Dostrum, to come to the aid of those in Panjshir. Given the valley is isolated and potential allies are in exile abroad, hard to see this being a reasonable outcome at this stage.
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John Fedup
The Bunker Group
I wonder how many 50 cal Barretts were left behind. In the wrong hands these rifles could make a leaky pipeline.
It'd be possible to lay a pipeline from Iran to China through Afghanistan without crossing any other countries, but it'd have to go through the Wakhan Corridor & over a pass more than 4800 metres high.
Apparently some also headed to Tadjikistan too, 12Cessan Caravans, and one Pilatus PC-12.
Сбежавшие в Таджикистан самолеты ВВС Афганистана
В дополнение к той почти полусотни самолетов и вертолетов афганских ВВС, что при падении афганского правительства улетели в Узбекистана, часть афганской военной авиации бежала в Таджикистан. В репортаже Вестей недели телеканала Россия 1 показаны кадры аэропорта таджикского…
imp-navigator.livejournal.com
Part 3 of 3: Update on the SIV evacuation
7. President Biden has said that the US is on track to leave Kabul by 31 Aug 2021. In the past 24 hours, U.S. Military and coalition aircraft left HKIA with another 21,600 individuals, bringing the total to 58,700 since the evacuation operation began on 14 Aug 2021 and 63,900 since the end of July. The evacuation of Kabul has been able to proceed due to the large number of temporary safe haven locations across Europe and the Middle East now stands at 14 to include U.S. installations in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Italy, Spain and Germany.
8. On 25 Aug 2021, President Biden met virtually with G7 leaders to discuss a continuation of our close coordination on Afghanistan policy, humanitarian assistance, and evacuating our citizens, the Afghans who stood with the U.S. The prospects for the future of Afghanistan are not bright for 3 reasons:
9. Given that the priority is to get people out, some equipment will have to be destroyed ‘in-place.’ The U.S. State Department has already confirmed that it has no intention of airlifting seven of its CH-46E Sea Knight helicopters out of the country and that it has deliberately disabled them in unspecified ways. As I see it, Team Biden is continuing their efforts to get SIVs and other vulnerable Afghans out as quickly as possible through one of the biggest airlifts in human history.
10. A declassified Office of National Intelligence report dated 18 Dec 2020, highlights that 229 former Guantanamo prisoners have reengaged in acts of terrorism and killing Americans since their release. For example, Gholam Ruhani was released in 2007 (was pictured in Afghan presidential palace during Taliban takeover) and Khairullah Khairkhwa was released in 2014 (masterminded Taliban's takeover of Kabul). More than 200 former Guantanamo Bay inmates who were released have returned to terrorism following their release - with 151 still at large, according to newly declassified documents. Security screeners at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar have detected that at least one of the Afghans who was evacuated from Kabul Airport has potential ties to ISIS, a U.S. official confirmed to Defense One. Further, Ryan Nobels reports that the House Intel Chair Adam Schiff just left a classified intel briefing on Afghanistan and broke a significant amount of news.
7. President Biden has said that the US is on track to leave Kabul by 31 Aug 2021. In the past 24 hours, U.S. Military and coalition aircraft left HKIA with another 21,600 individuals, bringing the total to 58,700 since the evacuation operation began on 14 Aug 2021 and 63,900 since the end of July. The evacuation of Kabul has been able to proceed due to the large number of temporary safe haven locations across Europe and the Middle East now stands at 14 to include U.S. installations in Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Italy, Spain and Germany.
8. On 25 Aug 2021, President Biden met virtually with G7 leaders to discuss a continuation of our close coordination on Afghanistan policy, humanitarian assistance, and evacuating our citizens, the Afghans who stood with the U.S. The prospects for the future of Afghanistan are not bright for 3 reasons:
One, given that many US allies are doing the same, but on a smaller scale, the total brain drain from Kabul is significant. To date, more than 3,500 people have been evacuated by Germany. An entire generation of educated people in Kabul who want to leave — utterly damming. At some point, the Taliban will realise the degree to which this brain drain hurts Afghanistan. They have to try to re-build a county without the support of educated people.
Two, the Taliban evidently did not have a government-in-waiting and a political program readied in advance of the swift collapse of the prior government and security forces. Filling this gap will be crucial to their ability to ensure continuation of public services (keeping risk of unrest in check) and to reassure their followers that they are instituting a new, more Islamic system. Currently, the Taliban are haggling over who gets the seats of power. This is both internal amongst the factions and involves trying to bring in other non- Taliban factions. Government formation and maintaining public order through their military commanders and fighters are likely to be the group’s principal occupations for at least the weeks ahead.
Three, Afghanistan’s budget was about 75% financed by foreign grant aid – sources of funding that at a minimum will be suspended for a lengthy period of time as donors watch developments. In a letter to the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Congress members called for assurances that the Taliban would receive no US-backed aid. "The potential of the SDR allocation to provide nearly half a billion dollars in unconditional liquidity to a regime with a history of supporting terrorist actions against the United States and her allies is extremely concerning," 17 signatories wrote. Therefore, the Taliban has limited cash as access to the IMF's reserves in Special Drawing Rights (SDR), which can be converted to government-backed money, have been blocked.
9. Given that the priority is to get people out, some equipment will have to be destroyed ‘in-place.’ The U.S. State Department has already confirmed that it has no intention of airlifting seven of its CH-46E Sea Knight helicopters out of the country and that it has deliberately disabled them in unspecified ways. As I see it, Team Biden is continuing their efforts to get SIVs and other vulnerable Afghans out as quickly as possible through one of the biggest airlifts in human history.
(a) Special Immigrant Visas (SIVs) are visas for Afghans (and their families) who have worked alongside the U.S. and played invaluable roles, such as translators and interpreters. We should note that when President Biden took office, no SIV interviews had taken place in Kabul since March 2020. The situation is complicated by reports that some families have been stopped on the way to the airport with a mix of Afghan-Americans, SIV holders and related Afghans seeking refuge. State Department seeking "ground truth" on those cases.
(b) Some American citizens have told the State Department that they do not plan to evacuate from Afghanistan unless they can bring Afghan family members with them, administration officials said. “The embassy has told that us that an increasing number is telling us that they won’t leave unless they can take large families with them,” said Karin King, a senior State Department official. “So, part of the number you have been given are people who are self-selecting to stay."
10. A declassified Office of National Intelligence report dated 18 Dec 2020, highlights that 229 former Guantanamo prisoners have reengaged in acts of terrorism and killing Americans since their release. For example, Gholam Ruhani was released in 2007 (was pictured in Afghan presidential palace during Taliban takeover) and Khairullah Khairkhwa was released in 2014 (masterminded Taliban's takeover of Kabul). More than 200 former Guantanamo Bay inmates who were released have returned to terrorism following their release - with 151 still at large, according to newly declassified documents. Security screeners at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar have detected that at least one of the Afghans who was evacuated from Kabul Airport has potential ties to ISIS, a U.S. official confirmed to Defense One. Further, Ryan Nobels reports that the House Intel Chair Adam Schiff just left a classified intel briefing on Afghanistan and broke a significant amount of news.
First he said: “Given the number of Americans who still need to be evacuated, the number of SIVs, the number of others who are members of the Afghan press, civil society leaders women leaders. It's hard for me to imagine all of that can be accomplished between now and the end of the month.”
Second,“I think the threat to the airport is very real and very substantial and this has been a concern of mine for, for some days now that this would make a very attractive target for ISIS."
Third, the intel community was very aware that the Taliban had the ability to take over the country. He said: "the intelligence agencies assessments of the Afghan government's ability to maintain itself became increasingly pessimistic. Over the course of the last six months. And there were any number of warnings that the Taliban might take over…”
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Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI for a mission accomplished (like Bush Jr) — Part 3
6. In Iran’s view, one of the worst-case scenarios has always been for the Islamic State group, which in Afghanistan calls itself the Islamic State-Khorasan or IS-K, to gain power. This would not only threaten Iran’s investments in Afghanistan but would also put Iran’s eastern borders seriously at risk. Iran may have concluded in 2015, with the emergence of IS-K, that the government of Afghanistan was not strong enough to defeat that threat. This may have prompted Tehran to strengthen its ties with the Taliban as well as make efforts to bring the Taliban and Afghan government together for peace negotiations.
7. With the U.S. now ending its presence and the security vacuum resulting from the troop withdrawal could easily be filled by militant groups and foreign terrorist forces.
8. The Taliban have said they hope to develop good relations with China in the rebuilding of Afghanistan and will never allow any forces to use Afghanistan’s territory to harm China, according to a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman, Hua Chunying during a briefing. “Unlike the last time the Taliban took power [in 1996], the Chinese know who they’re dealing with — they’ve been in exchanges with them for over 20 years now… that doesn’t mean they find an ideologically rigid Islamist movement committed to establishing a Sharia-ruled state very comfortable to handle,” said Andrew Small, who specializes in China’s relations with South Asia at the German Marshall Fund. With the U.S. military drawdown in Afghanistan, China says it is ready to move ahead in its relations with the Taliban, but foreign policy experts say Beijing remains apprehensive about what comes next.
9. Qian Feng, director of the Research Department of the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, said that China and Russia also agree on not sending troops to fill the gap left by the US in Afghanistan, because Moscow remembers the lesson of the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and its military presence in Syria makes it unable to open another battlefield.
6. In Iran’s view, one of the worst-case scenarios has always been for the Islamic State group, which in Afghanistan calls itself the Islamic State-Khorasan or IS-K, to gain power. This would not only threaten Iran’s investments in Afghanistan but would also put Iran’s eastern borders seriously at risk. Iran may have concluded in 2015, with the emergence of IS-K, that the government of Afghanistan was not strong enough to defeat that threat. This may have prompted Tehran to strengthen its ties with the Taliban as well as make efforts to bring the Taliban and Afghan government together for peace negotiations.
7. With the U.S. now ending its presence and the security vacuum resulting from the troop withdrawal could easily be filled by militant groups and foreign terrorist forces.
(a) Russia is ready to supply weapons and hardware to member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) at a reduced price to fortify their borders with Afghanistan. As Kabul fell, hundreds of Russian armored vehicles were clearly visible at the border between Afghanistan and Tajikistan. The effort signalled that Russia (not the U.S.), will protect CSTO member states.
(b) Interestingly, regional players like Iran, China and Russia now call the U.S. withdrawal “irresponsible.” Afghanistan has a lesson to teach other countries, namely that a government whose existence depends on the presence of foreign forces can easily collapse when those forces leave. This is something that the Russians, with their presence in Syria, and the Iranians, with their presence in Iraq and Syria, will have to take into consideration. Likewise, China is stuck in Pakistan for the foreseeable future.
8. The Taliban have said they hope to develop good relations with China in the rebuilding of Afghanistan and will never allow any forces to use Afghanistan’s territory to harm China, according to a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman, Hua Chunying during a briefing. “Unlike the last time the Taliban took power [in 1996], the Chinese know who they’re dealing with — they’ve been in exchanges with them for over 20 years now… that doesn’t mean they find an ideologically rigid Islamist movement committed to establishing a Sharia-ruled state very comfortable to handle,” said Andrew Small, who specializes in China’s relations with South Asia at the German Marshall Fund. With the U.S. military drawdown in Afghanistan, China says it is ready to move ahead in its relations with the Taliban, but foreign policy experts say Beijing remains apprehensive about what comes next.
9. Qian Feng, director of the Research Department of the National Strategy Institute at Tsinghua University, said that China and Russia also agree on not sending troops to fill the gap left by the US in Afghanistan, because Moscow remembers the lesson of the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and its military presence in Syria makes it unable to open another battlefield.
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Redlands18
Well-Known Member
The British tried and failed to control Afghanistan
The Russians tried
The Americans tried
So I suppose it is now China's turn.
The Russians tried
The Americans tried
So I suppose it is now China's turn.
Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI for a mission accomplished (like Bush Jr) — Part 4
11. China’s leaders read history and are not stupid. If you ask a man in the street in Las Vegas to point on a map, the location of Afghanistan, chances are, they can’t do it. In this 20 year American confrontation with the Taliban, as a fundamentalist movement and as a barbaric adversary (somewhat like the Han dynasty facing a never ending war with the Xiongnu) — it is shocking how little the Americans know about Afghanistan — most of their social media discussions on this reflects this toxic mix of lazy indifference, incompetence and ignorance.
12. By leaving, the Biden administration can avoid the same mistakes made by Emperor Wu Ti (141-87 BCE) of the Han dynasty. The last dynasty, Qing (as foreigners), that ruled China, was not even Han Chinese. So the CCP have plenty of references on internal weakness, causing the fall of a state.
10. When looking at China, and predicting their actions — it is more useful to look at things through their history’s lens.
11. China’s leaders read history and are not stupid. If you ask a man in the street in Las Vegas to point on a map, the location of Afghanistan, chances are, they can’t do it. In this 20 year American confrontation with the Taliban, as a fundamentalist movement and as a barbaric adversary (somewhat like the Han dynasty facing a never ending war with the Xiongnu) — it is shocking how little the Americans know about Afghanistan — most of their social media discussions on this reflects this toxic mix of lazy indifference, incompetence and ignorance.
(a) According to Steve Coll in his 2014 book Directorate S about the ISI unit responsible for Afghanistan, found US military and intelligence leaders pre-occupied with the forthcoming invasion of Iraq, which began on 19 Mar 2003.
(b) The Pakistani generals, Gen. Mohammad Yusaf Khan (vice chief of the army staff) and Maj. Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who visited US in 2003 concluded it was time to restart their proxy war in Afghanistan. By 2004 Taliban field commanders were on the offensive — this would lead the movement’s military resurgence and victory in 2021.
(c) China is clear headed in knowing that their leverage in Afghanistan is tied to Pakistan and have opted for an indirect approach. This is why Chinese Ambassador Yue Xiaoyong visited Pakistan, first. In my view, the Americans should not have relied on a strategy backed by 20 years of intelligence assessments that leave out the actual belligerent. NATO countries need national and shared capacity to understand clearly what Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran and other aggressive players are doing. But unfortunately that will never happen.
(d) Mullah Zakir (former Guantanamo detainee), was released, then became head of military commission, has just been appointed Minister of Defence — due to American incompetence and ignorance. If you read his detainee assessment, where he used a fake name, and the US fell for it. After 6 years in captivity, the CIA did not even bother to translate the documents/books he was captured with.
12. By leaving, the Biden administration can avoid the same mistakes made by Emperor Wu Ti (141-87 BCE) of the Han dynasty. The last dynasty, Qing (as foreigners), that ruled China, was not even Han Chinese. So the CCP have plenty of references on internal weakness, causing the fall of a state.
(a) I believe that Beijing (unlike Moscow in Syria) seeks an indirect approach — Chinese citizens learn their history in high school and they and their leaders have history’s lessons learnt as part of their cultural capital. Indeed, the Taliban have sought to reassure Beijing over its concerns about cross-border militants. “People from other countries who want to use Afghanistan as a site [to launch attacks] against other countries, we have made a commitment that we will not allow them in, whether it’s an individual or entity against any country including China,” Taliban spokesman said in July 2021. But I note that the same assurance is not given to CSTO states.
(b) “Beijing will continue to play a role, but not a forward one, and will seek to focus single-mindedly on its interests, which are concerns about Uyghur militants using the country as a base against them,” Raffaello Pantucci, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said. For now, the two sides are striking a friendly tone.
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From memory I think that either the Greeks or Romans had a go at controlling Afghanistan some time ago and failed, probably the Greeks
