Afghanistan War

[STURM]

What I'm curious about is whether the Taliban are implementing theocracy as it was during the golden age or after that. Whether they are just trying to revive the time where Islam was at its zenith, or their interpretation really is warped.

What the Taliban tried to implement during its first time in power was based on a strict interpretation of the Koran but also with a lot of elements of Pashtun culture/traditions; some in turn based on the environment they live in. No doubt it also added it some stuff which it felt was “appropriate”.

Slight difference between the Taliban now and then. The ones now are more social media savvy and realise that what they did then is simply not possible now; for one thing there’s greater digital connectivity in which the outside world is watching. One thing remains the same : they are the product of their society; born and raised in a strict and structured environment; have an education mostly limited to religious studies: have little contact with outsiders or females who are not relations.

or their interpretation really is warped.

In this day and age it’s just not practical or even needed but that’s me as an outsider. If I was Pashtun and I grew up in that environment; under strict tribal norms in which religion and customs played a huge role in everyday life; I might feel differently.

I would argue that the ideology as propagated by the likes of IS, JI, AQ and other groups like them was more “warped”.

 

[Ananda]

What I'm curious about is whether the Taliban are implementing theocracy as it was during the golden age or after that.

Yes, it's bit out of context for this thread. However I would like to comment this a bit, just to shown how Taliban can go in bed with Al Qaeda, but in same time on opposite side of ISIS.

What historian call Golden Age of Islam is the periods when Islamic Khaliphate and various Emirates and Sultanate in Islamic world, fully embrace Philosophy, Arts, and Science development. They translate and dissect all books from all over known world from Greece to China. Just the way modern science do. They take whatever lessons they can get, and separate those knowledge from Religion point of view. They simply create atmosphere for developing worldly knowledge while maintaining their Islamic faith and identity.

That's different with what Taliban thinking, which everything must derive from their close knit interpretation of Islam. Rumi teaching and philosophical thinking that come from Islamic Golden age, will be considered blasphemy on their thinking. Rumi teaching that cross the realm of mystic and self searching, will be considered unislamic from their point of view.

Put it just example of what Taliban teaching will not work with Islamic Khaliphate on that era. However that's the problem of interpretation of only by the book of any religion. In fact some of Taliban interpretation of Qur'an can have similarities with many Born again Christian of Bible interpretation, especially those in US Southern States. In short it's interpretation that world need to go back to condition of 'simplier' middle ages thinking.

That's why they can go in bed with Al Qaeda, which they see as allies in thinking, while ISIS is competition in thinking. ISIS want to build Islamic Khaliphate based on their subordination. Which means they want to enforce their believe to Taliban. While Al Qaeda can co-op with their interpretation.

Bit contradictive if you think about this. Both want to enforce their interpretation to others, but they will clash because they don't want to be forcefully follow by each other.

 

[ngatimozart]

@Ananda I don't think it's to out of context for the thread because you're explaining of the the main underlying drivers of the Taliban. This is especially helpful to those of us who are non Muslim and unfamiliar with the history and the differences within Islam.

 

[OPSSG]

Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI for a mission accomplished (like Bush Jr) — Part 1

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428520910131122184

1. For the long term prosperity of America, I am grateful for Biden’s act to follow-up on Trump’s decision to get out of Afghanistan. No matter who is the American President, Central and South Asia are Russian, Pakistani and Indian spheres of influence, going forward — which may wax and wane, depending on longer term trends. Please read Bilahari’s cold blooded analysis. He is brilliant at explaining geo-politics in a manner I can understand and appreciate. Following from Bilahari’s no B.S. analysis, I share some of my thoughts below that is not intended to hurt the pride of citizens of any country. It is a thought process that is entirely devoted to thinking ahead towards 2030.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428799973022261249

2. Growing insecurity will force governments to spend more on counter-terror efforts. I am glad to see that China will have to step up efforts in Pakistan to secure trade routes. This will hopefully be on a win-win basis (or a win-lose basis), the outcome of which I will not care about.

3. Against the CIA, the ISI won the intelligence preparation of the battlefield in Afghanistan — a matter that Taiwan and Japan need to take note of and internalise. Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI on achieving its intermediate goal and getting the US started on moving onto its role as off-shore balancer in the Indo-Pacific, which means the following consequences in realpolitik:

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One, increased international maritime cooperation — that is friendly to India with warship patrols in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. This means regular visits by JMSDF and RAN to Indian, Malaysian, Vietnamese, Singaporean and Japanese ports, by the Quad for counter-terrorism efforts in the maritime domain, to limit the knock-on effects of terrorist supporters. See also post #499 on the setting up of an Indonesian led Counter-Terrorism Information Facility at Changi.​

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Two, while the Quad may turnout to be the new ASEAN — toothless — it is still an important forum, like the G7 (in the economic sphere). It will slowly grow in geo-political importance for a whole of government response by these maritime powers. This will ensure that India adopts the correct maritime strategy of being a maritime protector, like that of Singapore. In this regard, India has set up its own information fusion centre for the IOR. These along with the ports in Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore WILL rise in importance as a string of American influenced pearls to connect the SLOCs of multiple countries.​

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Three, Japanese and Korean aircraft carriers using STOVL aircraft like the F-35B and the sole India aircraft carrier, will be the centre piece of these important naval powers to project force into the Indian Ocean. Spoilers like Iran and Pakistan will have to accept this new reality in the 2030s. The JMSDF has the world’s largest fleet of mine sweepers and any mining campaign by Iran will lead to joint American and Japanese efforts to sweep for mines to protect SLOCs, in a multi-polar world.​

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Four, in a future conflict between India and Pakistan (in the 2030s), the Indian Navy will be able to shoot down Pakistani MPAs, as part of their calibrated response to hostilities. If conflict occurs, at the very least, three other Quad members are very likely to adopt a policy of armed neutrality in a manner that is to the detriment of Pakistani interests. These maritime powers will of course call for peace at the UN, while watching Indian aircraft conduct air strikes or enforce no fly zones for a few weeks. They will work together to protect Indian, Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and Chinese commercial shipping in the Indian Ocean but will not be able to protect Pakistani ports.​

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Five, it is important that the Pentagon does not relegate the lessons learned from its recent operational experience in the Middle East to the trash bin. Aaron Stein and Ryan Fishel argue that the USAF needs to prepare for proxy war scenarios akin to Syria (as applied to the Philippines, should the country shatter as the forces of regionalism are used by President Duterte and his daughter is inflicted on the country). The same risk applies to Myanmar.​

Six, current U.S. and allied air operations are centered around an air operations center that preplans deliberate airstrikes as a part of a 72-hour air-tasking cycle. The deliberate targeting process struggled due to the absence of an initial list of ISIL targets, insufficient numbers of intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft to simultaneously support ground operations and deliberate target development. Armed neutrality means Quad members can support Indian efforts with ISR, given that 3 of the 4 members either operate P-8s or F-35s. But more than that, they need to engage in the intelligence preparation of the battlefield in the South China Sea.​

 

[STURM]

Lots of parallels have been drawn with Vietnam; there are some but Vietnam in many ways was different. For one it was evolved from a classic counter insurgency war to something else; one of the iconic images of the war was NVA tanks crashing through the gates the Presidential Palace. By that stage the VC had been largely broken as a fighting force.

One major similarity the war shared (apart from flawed planning and hubris) with Afghanistan is that both involved allies in which the Americans poured immense land resources into; yet ultimately both allies fell and not entirely from their own fault.

Afghanistan and the Real Vietnam Analogy

The war in Vietnam showed the abject failure of nation-building – and the imperial logic behind such efforts. But the U.S. repeated its mistake in Afghanistan.

thediplomat.com

“The war in Vietnam showed the abject failure of nation-building – and the imperial logic behind such efforts. But the U.S. repeated its mistake in Afghanistan”

“In wars like those in Vietnam and Afghanistan, nation-building is the exit strategy. That’s why we tend to notice it has failed when it becomes time to leave. Killing the enemy isn’t enough if the enemy can reconstitute their manpower, as both the Vietnamese Communists and Taliban proved able to do”

For anyone interested in the fall of South Vietnam and seeing what parallels there are between the ARVN and the ANA; I recommend this book.

 

[Ananda]

From CNN Indonesia

Cerita Pelik TNI AU Evakuasi 26 WNI dan 7 WNA di Afghanistan

TNI AU mengungkap detik-detik peliknya mengevakuiasi 26 WNI dan 7 WNA dari Afganistan yang diwarnai berbagai rintangan.

www.cnnindonesia.com

Put in here, as related to Afghanistan situation. Indonesian AF (TNI-AU) 737 manage to evacuate 33 people, consist of 26 Indonesian, 2 Afghanis (1 spouse of Indonesian, the other Indonesian embassy local staff), and 5 Philippines citizen.

Put it here as seems US and NATO forces in Airport so far still manage to control the situation, thus enable other nations send aircraft to there for evacuation.

 

[OPSSG]

Congrats to Pakistan’s ISI for a mission accomplished (like Bush Jr) — Part 2

What historian call Golden Age of Islam is…[t]hey take whatever lessons they can get, and separate those knowledge from Religion point of view. They simply create atmosphere for developing worldly knowledge while maintaining their Islamic faith and identity.

That's different with what Taliban thinking, which everything must derive from their close knit interpretation of Islam. Rumi teaching and philosophical thinking that come from Islamic Golden age, will be considered blasphemy on their thinking…

Put it just example of what Taliban teaching will not work with Islamic Khaliphate on that era. However that's the problem of interpretation of only by the book of any religion. In fact some of Taliban interpretation of Qur'an can have similarities with many Born again Christian of Bible interpretation, especially those in US Southern States. In short it's interpretation that world need to go back to condition of 'simplier' middle ages thinking.

That's why they can go in bed with Al Qaeda, which they see as allies in thinking, while ISIS is competition in thinking…

Bit contradictive if you think about this. Both want to enforce their interpretation to others, but they will clash because they don't want to be forcefully follow by each other.

4. The citizens of Pakistan that are celebrating the Taliban victory should be reminded that their understand of Islam is not the same as that practiced by Turkey (as the most geo-politically powerful Islamic country that is growing weaker as the 2030 approaches) and Indonesia (as the most populous Islamic country that has the potential to grow stronger). Any realistic and successful counter-terrorism effort needs the buy-in of muslim majority powers.

5. IMHO, we cannot fight hate with more hate, rather we need enlightened self-interest to find unlikely allies or partners — like that of Indonesia and Singapore. This is why I have respect for my Indonesian friends in this forum and they are also willing to consider my point of view, in a range of discussions and in the process, we all learn.

 

[ngatimozart]

Well that may have backfired on the ISI and Pakistan in general. According to the article below, in 2000 the Pakistan Army closed the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, shutting down the Taliban extremist traffic. That upset the extremists on the Pakistan side of the border which lead them to go to war against the Pakistan state. In 2007 the assassinated Benazir Bhutto and still strike against Pakistan. If the article is correct then the ISI may have made a rod for Pakistan's back.

A Taliban Takeover Will Strengthen Pakistan’s Jihadis

Islamabad cheered the fall of Kabul, but the new Afghan regime will embolden domestic terrorist groups that could threaten the Pakistani state.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[Ananda]

citizens of Pakistan that are celebrating the Taliban victory should be reminded that their understand of Islam is not the same as that practiced by Turkey (as the most geo-politically powerful Islamic country that is growing weaker as the 2030 approaches) and Indonesia (as the most populous Islamic country that has the potential to grow stronger). Any realistic and successful counter-terrorism effort needs the buy-in of muslim majority powers.

Some Pakistani think they are the most powerful nation in Islamic world. Simply due to their nuclear arsenal. Matter of this make some of them think their way of Islam is the right way.

However to be fair many moderates Islam actualy exists in Pakistan, and they used to be the pervailing ones years ago. Imran Khan as the PM used to be the champion from that segment.

This is basically my own observation from communicating with finance industry community in Mumbai and Karachi. Basically they're saying that moderation view in both New Dehli and Islamabad already been push away. Thus this spriral down to Politicians in both capitals using hard core nationalistic and religious tone to gather power from each constituents.

Many in Pakistan see the previous Kabul administrations is western pupet thus also more incline to New Dehli agenda (as in their mind) which's preferable by Western power (when they are leaving Afghanistan eventualy). Thus getting rid of them is upmost important in order to avoid Western Pakistan border encircled by India stooge. In their mind if it is has to be done by Taliban, then so be it. They now the risk of Taliban gaining power again in Kabul will potentialy raise Tribal Pashtun agenda in their side. However it is much better then having Western and (more importantly) India pupet in Kabul.

What happen in Islamabad and New Dehli already turn to vicious circle of Nationalists and Religions fanatism. So I do see many Pakistanis that celebrate Taliban accendacy to power, not only due to their Islamist view but also more to celebrating fail India effort on gaining foot hold in Kabul.

 

[STURM]

India may still have a future greater presence in Afghanistan and the Taliban (as reported somewhere - I forget where exactly) have reached out to India. Just because they have close ties with Pakistan doesn’t necessarily mean the Taliban will turn away Indian investment. Naturally Pakistan will keep a close watch - Baluchistan has a long border with Afghanistan and Pakistan in the past has accused India’s RAW of aiding Baluch seoerstists.

Many in Pakistan are indeed rejoicing because after so many setbacks the Taliban have finally won. Beneath all the joy however; the Pakistani political and military elite have a lot of worries; especially given that the Afghans are too independent for Pakistan’s liking. Instability in Afghanistan whether in the form of a civil war or a major schism within the Taliban will affect Pakistan more than any other of Afghanistan’s neighbours.

 

[STURM]

Many in Pakistan see the previous Kabul administrations is western pupet thus also more incline to New Dehli agenda (as in their mind) which's preferable by Western power (when they are leaving Afghanistan eventualy).

Pakistan traditionally has wanted a friendly compliant Pashtun government in power. One it could control in order to safeguard its key interests: not all of which have to do with India; namely the pipeline and plans for an overland trade route to Central Asia; plus issues related to the large Pakistani Pashtun population. Over time it realised that it’s just not possible; that it has to be.m a broad based on; hence the call for an “inclusive” government with representation from all ethic groups.

 

[John Fedup]

This article is by a former CIA official. He claims both Trump and Biden received briefings on potential outcomes resulting from a rapid US withdrawal. What we are seeing now was largely due to US domestic political considerations. Both Trump and Biden wanted out and both saw the exit as a winning political decision. Not hard to understand this view considering an overwhelming majority of Americans wanted the Afghanistan $hitshow to end. Trump’s attitude towards his intelligence services likely didn’t help and he certainly wasn’t receptive to any views contrary to his so I doubt the result would be much different. Biden has no excuse and he must have hoped only the optimal scenarios listed by the CIA were the only viable outcomes. When the American public ceases support for something that is pretty much a show stopper so this is one similarity Afghanistan has with Vietnam.

CIA’s Former Counterterrorism Chief for the Region: Afghanistan, Not An Intelligence Failure — Something Much Worse

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 3: Update on the SIV evacuation

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428837724010778626

4. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers entered into an agreement with the Dulles Expo Center to provide temporary layover location to accommodate Afghans at risk as they await follow-on transportation to Fort Bliss, Texas, or Fort McCoy, Wisconsin. Since the end of July, the cumulative number of people moved out of Afghanistan is greater than 18,000.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1428848670217326598

(a) At one stage, U.S. evacuation flights under Operation Allies Refuge, was paused for 6-7 hours earlier because there was "no room" in Qatar. Flights have now "resumed," because UAE has agreed to allow 5,000 in-transit evacuees to be hosted on top of the US facilities in Qatar, which hit capacity limits. In addition, Ramstein Air Base in Germany is prepared to also house Afghanistan evacuees.​

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1429100059346538503

(b) Things are so bad at the gates that the Americans and German are forced to use helicopters to COLLECT SIV evacuees to by-pass the stampede at the gates that is killing people in the crush. The Pentagon said 3 helicopters was sent to a hotel rescue 169 Americans, who were unable to get into the airport. “The Spanish defence secretary said on Friday that one Afghan family taken out by Spain had left behind a daughter they lost in the airport crush.”​

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(c) American, German, Italian and Turkish soldiers are showing they care more than their country’s politicians but things have gotten so bad for those outside the gates that the military are retrieving bodies who died from the stampede. Hydration prevents deaths and the soldiers are giving out water. But they also cannot let people in without a valid departure visa.​

5. Due to bottle necks in the system being set up under Operation Allies Refuge, the US government is failing at 2 of the 3 key concerns at HKIA, as listed by Secretary Austin:

(i) the safety and security of the security forces and the people they are trying to evacuate (as people are dying in a stampede at the gates);​

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(ii) maintaining security at the airport itself; and​

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(iii) increasing the flow of aircraft and people out of Kabul (but the bottleneck in Qatar, forced flights to be paused and made things worse at the gates).​

6."The failure in Afghanistan was actually a political one," War Studies Fellow at King's College, Dr Mike Martin explained. He also says the way in which western powers left Afghanistan "effectively gave this house of cards a shove and it collapsed."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427535552455270401

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(a) At this stage, I have to stop assuming that the Biden administration is capable of competence — the adults are not back — further, there seems to be a competition to see if the current bunch can beat Trump’s bunch at incompetence.​

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(b) I just don’t believe Biden when he said there is no interest for United States to keep its force in Afghanistan now that al Qaeda is gone. The Haqqani Network, which is closely allied with al Qaeda, is playing a big role in Kabul right now; and as most know, the Haqqanis are in the drug trade and are also intertwined with al Qaeda.​

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(c) Keeping in mind that President Trump withdrew all but 2,500 American troops. Stephen Miller a senior adviser to former President Donald Trump, teamed up with “enablers” to undermine anyone trying to get the allies out. “Stephen Miller would peddle his racist hysteria about Iraq & Afghanistan,” tweeted Troye. She described Pence as “fully aware” of the problem.​

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(d) Further, in 2018, President Trump got Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar released from prison. As Trump’s former national security adviser, H.R. McMaster said: “Our secretary of state [Mike Pompeo] signed a surrender agreement with Taliban. This collapse goes back to the capitulation agreement of 2020. The Taliban didn’t defeat us. We defeated ourselves.” In 2020, Trump's Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo met with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar. In 2021, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is set to become the President of Afghanistan under Taliban rule.​

 

[STURM]

When the American public ceases support for something that is pretty much a show stopper so this is one similarity Afghanistan has with Vietnam.

Indeed. With South Vietnam things got so bad that the South Vietnamese President has to seek help from counties such as the Philippines and Taiwan. Due to cuts in U.S. aid; caused by a slow economy and U.S. politics high level U.S. officials also sought the aid of allies.

Days before Kabul fell U.S. officials were already indicating that U.S. air strikes would only continue as long as they were ordered to and it was also reported that air strikes were not being ramped up despite the rapid Talib advance - hardly reassuring to an ally is it? We also have Biden’s statement which gave the false narrative that the whole ANA had lost the will to fight.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

At this stage, I have to stop assuming that the Biden administration is capable of competence — the adults are not back — further, there seems to be a competition to see if the current bunch can beat Trump’s bunch at incompetence.

Don't tell that to the youngsters at r/politics. They're all uniformly rallying around Biden, decrying any criticism of his withdrawal as warmongering by the military industrial complex and downvoting comments that don't go along with that narrative.

These are the people he's seeking to please for the next elections, determined "just pull 'em out" types.

 

[CB90]

Don't tell that to the youngsters at r/politics. They're all uniformly rallying around Biden, decrying any criticism of his withdrawal as warmongering by the military industrial complex and downvoting comments that don't go along with that narrative.

These are the people he's seeking to please for the next elections, determined "just pull 'em out" types.

The problem with that would be that he never really needed to please them for the elections anyway.

As for the "pull 'em out" types, the only political group I'd say that had any serious willingness to stay would've been some of the more traditional conservatives (ie the pro-defense, and US led world order types)...who he was never likely to win over either.

As much as I don't want to give Biden Administration any credit (I fully expected security focused Foreign Policy and National Security to be this bunch's weakest areas), I do have a hard time seeing this playing out much better other than by a matter of degrees.

In other words, the Doha accord locked in some courses of action, particularly the withdrawal of forces. Once that was in play, you can't throw a change that large into the mix and NOT expect some level of pain from the following upheaval.

 

[STURM]

An interesting article on the key challenges facing the Taliban. The article notes that with only 100,000 fighters the Taliban is stretched thin. The question of funding is also addressed; unsurprisingly the U.S. has frozen all funds; as has the IMF; something the Taliban IMO factored in a long time ago and why over the years (in addition to the need for legitimacy) it has cultivated contacts with a number of countries like China, India and Russia.

“But Jonah Blank, a lecturer at the National University of Singapore said: “Money is not really as powerful a tool as some outsiders might think.”

“As long as it [Taliban] has enough funding to fulfil its basic ‘duties’ (as it sees them) then I think it’s not really going to care whether an extra billion or two here or there comes into the treasury,” Blank told Al Jazeera’s ‘Counting the Cost’ show”

Taliban retakes Afghanistan, but 6 challenges face the group

Al Jazeera takes a look at six challenges facing the armed group as it prepares to rule the country of 38 million.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Hone C]

Anti-Taliban resistance makes modest gains outside Panjshir

While the Panjshir resistance's odds remain long, it stands a chance to not only divert and disrupt Taliban operations but create a groundswell of interest that could lead to a larger campaign with more sustainable momentum.

www.longwarjournal.org

Anti Taliban forces based in the Panjshir have rebranded themselves as the Northern Alliance and have seized 4 districts in neighbouring Baghlan and Parwan provinces.

While modest, these moves threatens the Taliban's GLOC north of Kabul, and extends the resistances reach northwards, vital if they are to establish links with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. While it's early days, I wonder whether the Taliban have enough strength or popular support to hold the country outside their traditional base of support.

 

[John Fedup]

Perhaps partition of Afghanistan is the solution. Seems to be too many regions that really don’t see rule from Kabul as a good thing in the past, now, and into the future. The Taliban won’t of course, until things start to go wobbly for them.

 

[King Wally]

Sorry if someone else has posted this... but I was interested to note that it appears a sizable amount of Afghan Air Force hardware has fled to Uzbekistan. I know some media commentators were creating anxious tally's of captured hardware, so its good some items were removed prior to the collapse.
Dozens of Afghan Air Force aircraft flown out of Afghanistan (janes.com)