I think he's irrelevant at this point. His role has been supplanted by the former vice president still mounting resistance in the field.
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Afghanistan War
- Thread starter gree0232
- Start date
One the speakers was in Kandahar as it fell and was with the ‘03’ unit; an elite CIA trained unit which was preparing for a last stand but was later told to stand down. He talks about the unit being worn out. Asked about the claim that the ANA largely fled; he said that this was an oversimplification as many units fought well but - as we know - some were placed in highly unfavourable positions, had too much asked of them and didn’t receive the support they needed.
Some have made comparisons between Iraqi regular units which broke and ran when IS launched its offensive (was only halted by Iraqi Shia militias with Iranian support - Western air strikes cane later)) with the ANA but I think the comparison is highly misleading.
No doubt the ANA had its share of “bad” units but assuming the whole army acked the intent to fight or the actual will (as Biden claimed in his speech) is highly misleading. At least the NATO Secretary General made the distinction about the Afghan units which fought well.
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately it all comes down to money. Most of NATO, Japan and others have ridden on the coattails of US security guarantees for several decades. Although to differing degrees they have tried to have well-rounded defence forces, the temptation to "just not bother" with something in particular to save money has overridden common-sense. The Royal Navy, for example, is still waiting on the I-SSGW contract.This is a very good assessment of the situation in Afghanistan.
Tom Tugendhat on UK and Afghanistan: Anger, grief, rage
Tory MP Tom Tugendhat speaks of the anger, grief and rage of veterans at the "abandonment" of Afghanistan.www.bbc.com
I didn't listen to the whole debate, but although there were some fine words I don't recall hearing any of the MPs calling for further increases to the defence budget to ensure we can operate independently of the US. Tugendhat called for working with other countries, but if they have a black hole in their capabilities as well how far does that help? And can you really fight a serious conflict with half a dozen different nations who may get cold feet at any moment and pull out a vital part of the operation?
RogerRanger
New Member
For me it shows yet another conclusive case that 2nd generation warfare can't withstand 4th generation warfare. And contrary to the statements from the white house and Neo-cons in the media and political establishment, the reason the Afghan government was defeat was because it was using 2nd generation warfare equipment and doctrine from the Americans and British, rather than 3rd generation light maneuver warfare like that of the Rhodesians in the Bush war. The emotional will of hundreds of thousands of people not to be put to death by the Taliban isn't why they lost. The reason they lost and were put to death is because of the US producing 300,000 2nd generation warfare troops, with state of the art aircraft and vehicles. They had the wrong people in charge of their nation, they had the wrong doctrine, they had the wrong equipment, all from the American government and the neo-cons.
In every engagement the 2nd generation warfare neo-cons have been defeated and failed to understand why, then they give this 2nd generation warfare to their allies and they are defeated, then they say the allies didn't have the will. No the allies didn't have the strategic depth to run away back to America, they had to stay and be defeated.
Rather than having 300,000 heavy infantry, in vehicles, heavy helicopters and air-to-ground fighter bombers. What the Afghan's needed was 50,000 light infantry, trained in light maneuver warfare, operate on their own and take the initiative. Not a top down command which the US put in place. Then you have light transport aircraft, light attack aircraft (like the Hawker Hurricane), light-artillery, light-helicopters, light-vehicles like bikes, motor-bikes and quad-bikes. You aim to emotionally and mentally defeat the Taliban with kindness and decency. You allow them to surrender and return to their families well fed, you don't torture them in prisons and never allow their families to see them or blow them up with drones. You don't have fixed bases for them to target, you have mobile bases which you don't tell anyone about. You wait for the Taliban to attack a farm/town/village then you send in fire force teams, to encircle them and allow them to retreat or surrender. You kill as few of them as possible. This is how you defeat the Taliban, how you improve the lives of people in Afghanistan and create a successful military. I don't believe any of this would have worked in the end because the US was an imperialist force, with a puppet government, however the defeat to the Taliban would have taken much longer and the US/UK wouldn't have spent billions on a useless military of their own design.
In every engagement the 2nd generation warfare neo-cons have been defeated and failed to understand why, then they give this 2nd generation warfare to their allies and they are defeated, then they say the allies didn't have the will. No the allies didn't have the strategic depth to run away back to America, they had to stay and be defeated.
Rather than having 300,000 heavy infantry, in vehicles, heavy helicopters and air-to-ground fighter bombers. What the Afghan's needed was 50,000 light infantry, trained in light maneuver warfare, operate on their own and take the initiative. Not a top down command which the US put in place. Then you have light transport aircraft, light attack aircraft (like the Hawker Hurricane), light-artillery, light-helicopters, light-vehicles like bikes, motor-bikes and quad-bikes. You aim to emotionally and mentally defeat the Taliban with kindness and decency. You allow them to surrender and return to their families well fed, you don't torture them in prisons and never allow their families to see them or blow them up with drones. You don't have fixed bases for them to target, you have mobile bases which you don't tell anyone about. You wait for the Taliban to attack a farm/town/village then you send in fire force teams, to encircle them and allow them to retreat or surrender. You kill as few of them as possible. This is how you defeat the Taliban, how you improve the lives of people in Afghanistan and create a successful military. I don't believe any of this would have worked in the end because the US was an imperialist force, with a puppet government, however the defeat to the Taliban would have taken much longer and the US/UK wouldn't have spent billions on a useless military of their own design.
It was a failure on multiple levels but if I am to narrow it down it was the failure of national leadership. As some Afghan experts have suggested that the ANA had been unclear if they were serving to protect Afghanistan or Ghani regime. In the end, they did not find it worthwhile to give up their lives to save Ghani. My take is that there was also lack of national unity amongst the Afghan forces.
But what has happened has happened. The issue is of what next? Accepting the legitimacy of a Taliban rule is a hard pill to swallow but resisting them would be a greater folly. Fighting them might plunge Afghanistan into a violent civil war, which is likely to undo the infrastructural and societal gains made in the past 20 years. Sure these gains are threatened by the Taliban anyway but so far they are standing and it must be ensured by the int. community that these gains continue to persist. There are reports of reemergence of the Northern Alliance in Panjshir led by Ahmed Massoud, the son of late Ahmed Shah Massoud, in cahoots with former Vice President Amrullah Saleh. They would need massive external financial and arms support and, in fact, are requesting these. However, I doubt that any country, apart from India perhaps, would be willing to invest in them. None of the neighbours would want a civil war in Afghanistan at this stage and my hunch is nor would the US/NATO. In fact, such a support by the US/NATO would be contrary to the present political stance on withdrawal from Afghanistan.
There clearly isn't an Afghan state in existence right now. There is no centralised leadership or a government, not even that of the Taliban. Thus, IMO, the next step should be to bring the Afghan state back online. The Taliban are doing their best at policing but, let's be honest, nobody wants that kind of policing. Taliban do appear to realise that this isn't the 'Wild West' that had been taken away from them in 2001 and that they need educated people to run state system, albeit they want to dictate the policy. Afghanistan's neighbours - including Pakistan - ideally would prefer the Taliban to serve as the overseers with veto authority than as absolute rulers. Pakistan is, after all, hosting members of Afghan parliament - including brothers of Ahmed Shah Massoud - right now for discussing Afghanistan's future. According to Afghan sources, the Taliban are trying to constitute a council of religious scholars to lead the government. My opinion is that the council should act as a senate, which should appoint an Emir (as preferred by the Taliban) as the head of the state. However, a democratic system should be maintained for electing a president or a prime minister who oversees the state affairs on behalf of the Emir. It is also important that the council includes not merely Taliban members but religious scholars from different sects and schools of thought from across Afghanistan.
RogerRanger
New Member
Interesting post. It backs up what William S Lind talks about, in terms of how states should be supporting each other to maintain their state, in the fact of 4th generation warfare. Which has now spread to Afghanistan. The reality is that 4th generation warfare is the real threat the states of the world are facing, the US/Russia/China and they should be working together to stop the spread of 4th generation warfare gangs/groups/organization and maintain states which can enforce law and order. It isn't just the middle east, it is every state in the world. From Russia to China to Europe.
The reality is people fearing China and Russia will exploit the US leaving is wrong, it is more likely Afghanistan will see a boon in support from western Chinese provinces and diminish the ability of China to control those area's. They won't be extracting trillions in minerals from Afghanistan. Pakistan had a cluster on its hands too now the US is pulling out. Everybody wanted to the US to leave for their own geo-political reasons, but the US was the only thing maintaining a state.
The reality is people fearing China and Russia will exploit the US leaving is wrong, it is more likely Afghanistan will see a boon in support from western Chinese provinces and diminish the ability of China to control those area's. They won't be extracting trillions in minerals from Afghanistan. Pakistan had a cluster on its hands too now the US is pulling out. Everybody wanted to the US to leave for their own geo-political reasons, but the US was the only thing maintaining a state.
Welcome to the forum. I note that you are posting the 4th GW theory elsewhere. We have some rules that posters are required to follow so I strongly suggest that you read up on the first before you post again. It stops you from running afoul of grumpy Moderators like myself. One of those rules is that posters provide links for material that they are posting.
From what I understand the socalled 4th Generation Warfare Theory has been discredited because it's:
"... there is no reason to reinvent the wheel with regard to insurgencies—super or otherwise—and their various kin. A great deal of very good work has already been done, especially lately, on that topic, to include the effects that globalization and information technologies have had, are having, and are likely to have, on such movements. We do not need another label, as well as an incoherent supporting logic, to obscure what many have already made clear. 16The fact that 4GW theorists are not aware of this work, or at least do not acknowledge it, should give us pause indeed. They have not kept up with the scholarship on unconventional wars, nor with changes in the historical interpretations of conventional wars. Their logic is too narrowly focused and irredeemably flawed. In any case, the wheel they have been reinventing will never turn."
That quote is the conclusion from the Army War College paper that is accessible in the link below. Read the paper and read through its list of citations.
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Some footage of former ANA forces in the Pandzher province.
vk.com
It will be interesting to see if the US chooses to support them in any tangible way.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
It will be interesting to see if the US chooses to support them in any tangible way.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Biden says he did not see a way to withdraw from Afghanistan without 'chaos ensuing'
President Joe Biden in an exclusive interview with ABC News' George Stephanopoulos.
abcnews.go.com
Biden again defend his decision to pull out, and stated there's no avoidance on the following chaos. Are this his acknowledgement that ANA and Afghanistan administration will eventually bow down to Taliban ?
This's in my opinion another excuse by him and his administration. He blame Afghanistan Army and Administration for the chaos, by again saying US already give all the preparation they need to combat and defend themselves against Taliban. However did not answering how more oderly pull out strategy can provide time for ANA to at least consolidate and at least hold more strategic area.
The idea seems always for Afghanistan administration to reach power sharing deal with Taliban. The way the pull out being done in my opinion shattered ANA confidence and especially their administration cohesiveness, which already fragile from beginning. This what US administration didn't want to acknowledge.
Part 1 of 3: Update on the SIV evacuation
1. U.S. operations in Kabul are centered at the airport. “We are working to re-establish security at Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) following breaches overnight that emanated from the civilian side of the airfield,” Kirby said. U.S. troops worked with Turkish soldiers and troops from other partner nations to clear the tarmac of the crowds. The U.S. military footprint in Kabul is more than 5,200 troops. It usually takes at least a day to unload a Blackhawk or CH-47 from a C-17 and make it flight ready; the fact that US forces in Afghanistan were springloaded to go evacuate the US embassy as the situation rapidly deteriorated in Kabul is because there were still helos sitting at HKIA for exactly that contingency. To date 300 Americans have been evacuated.
2. 7,000 Americans and refugees have been processed and out of the country.
3. NEW GUIDANCE FOR VISA APPLICANTS: if anyone is an SIV, P1 or P2, do not go to the airport unless they told by the @StateDept to do so. If they don’t get an email calling to go to HKIA, they will not be let in.
1. U.S. operations in Kabul are centered at the airport. “We are working to re-establish security at Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA) following breaches overnight that emanated from the civilian side of the airfield,” Kirby said. U.S. troops worked with Turkish soldiers and troops from other partner nations to clear the tarmac of the crowds. The U.S. military footprint in Kabul is more than 5,200 troops. It usually takes at least a day to unload a Blackhawk or CH-47 from a C-17 and make it flight ready; the fact that US forces in Afghanistan were springloaded to go evacuate the US embassy as the situation rapidly deteriorated in Kabul is because there were still helos sitting at HKIA for exactly that contingency. To date 300 Americans have been evacuated.
2. 7,000 Americans and refugees have been processed and out of the country.
(a) The SIV evacuation is now moving like clockwork, at HKIA but outside the airport it is still a mess. Gunshots to contain crowd at the North Gate were hear, as tons of people are pushing each other and the children in the crowd.
(b) The EU Ambassador has appealed to the thousands waiting to co-operate, so that those scheduled for departure can get to the gates. Some SIVs have been notified — it is their 3rd day going to the airport but they still cannot get in. This is because there are opportunists blocking those with the paper work.
3. NEW GUIDANCE FOR VISA APPLICANTS: if anyone is an SIV, P1 or P2, do not go to the airport unless they told by the @StateDept to do so. If they don’t get an email calling to go to HKIA, they will not be let in.
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Pakistan has called for an “inclusive” government because it knows fully well that this is the only chance lasting peace and stability. Whilst Pakistan for its interests would like the Taliban to be a dominant force in the country it too has deep concerns and it too sees the need for a more “moderate” (I actually dislike this misleading term) Taliban.
Apart from the strategic factor against India; Pakistan has long wanted a stable Afghanistan which would enable it to be used as a South Asian hub to Central Asia. There is also the proposed pipeline which was first looked in the 1990’s.
Often overlooked is that the Taliban has been too independent for Pakistan’a liking - they do not obediently over every Pakistani command despite Pakistan’s influential and important role in the overall scheme of things. The Pakistani’s have a large Pashtun population; much of whom identify themselves as Pashtun first before Pakistani - a major worry for Islamabad.
After coming close to a civil war as a result of Pakistan's actions but also sting urging from the U.S. to move in on the tribal areas (which Pakistan delayed as long as it could because it was in line with U.S. interests but damaging to Pakistan’s) the last thing the Pakistani’s want is more trouble in the tribal areas. They also don’t want the Taliban making a fresh claim on the disputed border. Beneath the surface; despite finally achieving their goal; the Pakistani’s are very worried and for good reason.
Apart from the strategic factor against India; Pakistan has long wanted a stable Afghanistan which would enable it to be used as a South Asian hub to Central Asia. There is also the proposed pipeline which was first looked in the 1990’s.
Often overlooked is that the Taliban has been too independent for Pakistan’a liking - they do not obediently over every Pakistani command despite Pakistan’s influential and important role in the overall scheme of things. The Pakistani’s have a large Pashtun population; much of whom identify themselves as Pashtun first before Pakistani - a major worry for Islamabad.
After coming close to a civil war as a result of Pakistan's actions but also sting urging from the U.S. to move in on the tribal areas (which Pakistan delayed as long as it could because it was in line with U.S. interests but damaging to Pakistan’s) the last thing the Pakistani’s want is more trouble in the tribal areas. They also don’t want the Taliban making a fresh claim on the disputed border. Beneath the surface; despite finally achieving their goal; the Pakistani’s are very worried and for good reason.
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Hang on - ain't that exactly what's been done by various other insurgencies?
It's not always succeeded, but it's certainly been done before. Technology changes, & is incorporated in the tools of insurgents, but the basic principles remain the same.
One could argue that it's exactly what the Afghans did in 1840-42.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I also don't understand why this being talk as a new thing. This's basically just like Swerve wrote is text book insurgencies that happened for long time. If Indonesian didn't use this kind of method during Independence war with Netherlands after 1945, there's no way Netherlands will give in recognition for Indonesian state at 1949. I put this as example as Netherlands practically win almost every battle but lost the war.
Honestly it's just a concept that some Analysts try to sell and try to make it a new hype thing.
I suggest for those who are still thinking on this 4th GW Theory, watch this movie. So you can see how similarities that what being face by Netherlands in East Indies/Indonesia in 40's, as concept has not much different with what US face in Afghanistan now, or other insurgencies that any major power face throughout decolonization period in 20th centuries.
How insurgencies being done then and now is basically following the same concept. Used every means necessary to make it too costly to continued by the superior forces. So why call it 4th GW ? Just another hype theorist try to packages old ideas.
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RogerRanger
New Member
Thanks for the link. I read it.
While it makes some good 'informational content' issues with 4GW, it doesn't change its conceptual reality. You can use informational content to bring up issues with any concept, because information content is a lower level of reality. Its my view that the clausewitz perception of war was wrong then, is wrong now and will be wrong. That's the point with non-trinitarian war. You can then go back and informationally extend the concept of clauswitz, but in conceptual terms war has been since the peace of Westphalia been a state on state or empire on empire matter. The clausewitz model of war has been destroyed by the onset of the fall of the European Empires and the rise of 4GW and unrestricted warfare by the Chinese. This is on the general conceptual level of war, you can find examples of 4GW and 5GW throughout history, but it wasn't the general form of war until recently. And if it did happen it would revert back to the prior generational concepts soon after. So the Spanish used 4GW, but it didn't become the way everybody fought war.
4GW and 5GW are becoming the conceptual based for understanding war. Even 3GW is being left behind or bypassed in generalized conceptual terms. So you can't engage war from the 2nd or 3rd generations anymore and expect to win, you will only lose. The reality for the US is that its greatest threat isn't Muslim terrorists from Afghanistan or Russian hyper-sonic missiles or Chinese subs, it is from the drug cartels in every US city, it is from the Chinese use of unrestricted warfare, it is from mass immigration. The US has been eaten alive from within and without, without a conventional war being fought. There needs to be a conceptual framework for understanding this and how it can be dealt with, and Clausewitz and Sun Tzu don't cut it anymore.
@RogerRanger You have been told once to provide links for your claims. This is a requirement not an option. Failure to do so will likely result in the Moderators considering sanctions against you.
Ngatimozart.
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An example of the indirect effect of the recent Taliban victories on other countries, even far ones: Terror group behind the 2002 Bali bombings planned fresh Indonesia attack: Police
It's a good thing our anti-terror branch is doing god's work. They apparently planning to launch an attack during the independence holidays, but nothing happened. Still, this kind of thing is a pain in the ass, especially for a country that has never contributed to the operations in Afghanistan.
There been much discussion here on how the ANA simply walked away and refused to fight.
All is not what it seems or what the media reports, you rarely hear how the ANA sacrificed 60,000 of their number, how they have carried the combat workload for some time or how they have not been paid for months.
A more balanced, if emotional view is provided by this Australian Army vet who spent a total of 16 months deployed.
Copied from fb.
Unavailable on fb but same article from “Australian Veteran News”
www.australianveterannews.com
All is not what it seems or what the media reports, you rarely hear how the ANA sacrificed 60,000 of their number, how they have carried the combat workload for some time or how they have not been paid for months.
A more balanced, if emotional view is provided by this Australian Army vet who spent a total of 16 months deployed.
Copied from fb.
Unavailable on fb but same article from “Australian Veteran News”
An Afghanistan veteran reflects: ‘We made a big and positive difference’
By Eamon Hale I spent 13 months in Afghanistan over two trips. I did some amazing things with amazing men and women. I worked with some remarkable people and I am immensely proud of my time in Afghanistan. But my life is more than just those 13 months. Afghanistan is somewhere I’ve been, rather...
www.australianveterannews.com
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Ah but your form of Islam isn't "righteous" enough for them because it doesn't adhere to their twisted form of Islam. It's people like them who give Islam a bad name.
Indeed. How some were deployed for months without any relief; rush from one location to another to shore up other units; deployed in isolated positions without the needed support or clear orders, etc. In a Vice video a journalist who was at Kandahar as it fell witnessed the the elite “03” unit getting ready for a last fight only to be told to stand down.
Yet the common narrative is that the Talibsn was largely unopposed: the bulk of ANA units simply melted away.
Both Indonesia and Singapore are taking the growth of this terror narrative seriously and making moves to increase cooperation by improved information sharing. For one year, the Counter-Terrorism Information Facility at Changi is headed by Lt Col Inf Henru Hidayat Susanto from TNI Intelligence and Strategic Agency — until Nov 2021, before the post is rotated to another country. Grateful for Indonesian help, support and cooperation in the maritime and information domains — the SAF will strive to be relevant to the TNI.
"It is hoped that the Indonesian delegation will be able to give the organization a good athmosphere while at the same time helping to deal with terrorism in the country," said the Indonesian Ambassador to Singapore Suryo Pratomo. He also expressed his gratitude that the Indonesian delegation from the TNI was given the opportunity to become the Chief of the Counter-Terrorism Information Facility.
The Counter-Terrorism Information Facility at Changi will serve as a forum for early detection and prevention of terrorism acts in the region by exchanging information and utilizing advanced technology supported by Basic Human Intelligence capabilities. Furthermore, Col Pnb Benny Arfan said that the TNI is a state instrument in the defense sector. One of its roles is implementing military operations other than war, which one of the roles is overcoming the acts of terrorism as stipulated in TNI Law No. 34 of 2004, article 7 paragraph 2.
More importantly, we are both working with an off-shore balancer, the US Navy (supported by efforts of the RAN and JMSDF), to go further together. If our countries continue to apply focus on military modernisation and allow the off-shore balancer to play its role — our combined geo-political weight should be able to handle changes to come.
Detasemen Khusus 88 Antiteror are absolutely trying to keep Muslims and non-Muslims safe in Indonesia.
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Actually, I want to know if the Taliban's implementation of theocracy is similar to what it was during the Islamic Golden Age. AFAIK, it grew more extreme after the Mongol invaded, which makes sense, since times were more desperate for the islamic world then. What I'm curious about is whether the Taliban are implementing theocracy as it was during the golden age or after that. Whether they are just trying to revive the "good old times", or their interpretation really is warped.
But it's probably out of topic for this thread.
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