Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
Very interesting. I wonder if that was before or after the first flight departed. But either way, clearly NATO countries are not coordinating with each other properly.
Afghanistan War
- Thread starter gree0232
- Start date
Saw a tweet about that from four hours ago, so... the day after.
Maas made a statement on TV yesterday evening (that was before the flight) that the US has a stated policy only flying out nationals of Allied countries and not planning to transport any "local national employees" (for any country) before they're finished with that. Might also be handled that way in general at the gate.
The German ambassador to Afghanistan is currently on his way to Qatar to negotiate with the Taliban about general free passage to the airport for people who worked for the German forces.
Why would there be coordination, given the nasty surprise given by Biden?
This rapid fall of the country to the Taliban, not only creates blow back in Europe and it also hurts NATO. I think it is a rare calculated American move with externalities —British lawmakers vented their anger at Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Joe Biden over the collapse of Afghanistan into Taliban hands, calling it a failure of intelligence, leadership and moral duty.
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Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
The US' military withdrawal was done without consultation with the rest of NATO, but it still happened a while ago. We also saw the Taliban start advancing last month. It's not like Kabul fell during an overnight coup.
In those circumstances I think more could have been expected from countries to work together to ensure transport planes weren't flying out half/mostly empty, albeit I expect the optics of the German flight means it won't happen again.
A closer look at Afghan aircraft that fled to Uzbekistan. It appears that much of the airwing supporting the commandos is what fled.
bmpd.livejournal.com
And a summary of trophies taken by the Taliban in their offensive. I wonder how quickly they will start to form a regular military. Or perhaps they will keep a system of militias, like Iran.
www.oryxspioenkop.com
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
Сбежавшие в Узбекистан самолеты и вертолеты ВВС Афганистана
Оригинал взят у коллеги imp_navigator в Сбежавшие в Узбекистан самолеты и вертолеты ВВС Афганистана Датированный 16 августа 2021 года спутниковый снимок скопища перелетевших в Узбекистан самолетов и вертолетов ВВС Афганистана на узбекском аэродроме Термез (с) Joseph Dempsey @JosephHDempsey…
bmpd.livejournal.com
And a summary of trophies taken by the Taliban in their offensive. I wonder how quickly they will start to form a regular military. Or perhaps they will keep a system of militias, like Iran.
The Taliban Air Force - An Inventory Assessment
Трофеи Талибана
Хамви,танчки, грузовики, бульдозеры и прочее даже считать не стали. Как и десятки тысяч единиц стрелкового оружия, сотни тонн боеприпасов и т.д. В ообщем, неплохо прибарахлились, хотя разумеется, часть из этого старье и неликвид, но в условиях, когда там можно еще встретить ружья начала…
colonelcassad.livejournal.com
Maas has given an update to this today: German forces brought in by the A400M established and manned a second access point to the airport in parallel to the American one. Various local nationals who worked for German forces before made it to the airport despite Taliban checkpoints.
German aircraft are also airlifting food on the way back in. Currently three A400M deployed, a fourth seems to be on the way (right now over Armenia, eastbound).
Supposedly the relationship on the ground between British (2 Para) and US forces is a lot worse than "bad coordination", although that's mostly hearsay so far it seems.
Yeah, hearsay is the Paras were sending patrols out into the city to extract people from known safehouses.
The Airborne is upset because it's outside the current agreement with the Taliban and they view it as a risk of it being treated as a breach of terms.
Whatever the circumstances, I'd expect that got resolved in fairly short order though, with a call to higher headquarters if needed. If true, given how precarious things are, that's the kind of thing you squash quickly before it gets out of hand. Especially since nothing more's come of that rumor.
peterAustralia
Member
I was reading somewhere (can't recall exact source) that training of pilots, maintainers etc for Afghan air Force only got going big time in 2010. The remark earlier how 90 percent of aghanis were illiterate in 2001 makes the job of staffing skilled position s difficult. It is also true that those that are educated would prefer a job in business as opposed to a low paying job maintaing aircraft.
With 90 percent illiteracy, that still provides a talent pool of 3.6 million. Literate candidates. Of course if your best desert when getting trained abroad, it makes your job managing very difficult.
Maybe the thing to do was pay skilled personell more. However that may mean more money for corrupt higher ups to pocket
I was surprised the aghanis were using Blackhawks. My very rough understanding is that the Blackhawk is a better helicopter than the mi8, however the mi 8 is simpler to maintain? and also it was in the current Afghan inventory, thus perhaps more mi 8 ( or mi 17) may have been a better way to go, this would also assist with parts supply if you only have a single type of large helicopter versus two types.
I was surprised the afghanis did not just get a large number of simple jets, be those l39 albatross or l159.. these are available second hand easily and best that I know are quite simple to maintain. Of course it is easier if you start in 2001 rather than 2010.
A little aside, I don't want to get too political. However both George Bush junior and Tony Blair have been painted poorly by history for invading Iraq, and in doing so taking the ball off Afganistan to a degree. It is true that john Howard was all in for going into Iraq. I believe his intentions were genuine, however it is possible that it was his support that pushed G W Bush over the line to make the hard decision to go into Iraq. Thus if history is to condem Bush and Blair, I feel that Howard should accept some degree of blame.
With 90 percent illiteracy, that still provides a talent pool of 3.6 million. Literate candidates. Of course if your best desert when getting trained abroad, it makes your job managing very difficult.
Maybe the thing to do was pay skilled personell more. However that may mean more money for corrupt higher ups to pocket
I was surprised the aghanis were using Blackhawks. My very rough understanding is that the Blackhawk is a better helicopter than the mi8, however the mi 8 is simpler to maintain? and also it was in the current Afghan inventory, thus perhaps more mi 8 ( or mi 17) may have been a better way to go, this would also assist with parts supply if you only have a single type of large helicopter versus two types.
I was surprised the afghanis did not just get a large number of simple jets, be those l39 albatross or l159.. these are available second hand easily and best that I know are quite simple to maintain. Of course it is easier if you start in 2001 rather than 2010.
A little aside, I don't want to get too political. However both George Bush junior and Tony Blair have been painted poorly by history for invading Iraq, and in doing so taking the ball off Afganistan to a degree. It is true that john Howard was all in for going into Iraq. I believe his intentions were genuine, however it is possible that it was his support that pushed G W Bush over the line to make the hard decision to go into Iraq. Thus if history is to condem Bush and Blair, I feel that Howard should accept some degree of blame.
The immediate and longer-term consequences of surrender —Part 1
“The developments of the last few days are bitter & will have long-term consequences for the region & for us. There is nothing to gloss over: We all - the federal government, the intelligence services & the international community - misjudged the situation,” said Heiko Maas (translated using google translate).
1. Humble and to the point. This is why I have so much respect for leaders in Germany in speaking truth to power; and it reaffirms the SAF’s decision to select German made weapons systems, like the Type 218SG and for Leopard 2SG crews to train in Germany. The first step to addressing a problem is accurate identification of points failures and a plan to move forward — a German approach that we can learn from.
2. In the coming days, the in evacuation of friendlies in Kabul, we will see the range and speed of A400M come into play (working alongside allied C-130s and C-17s) and gain a reputation for being a work horse. But the hidden gem is the refuelling tankers that top-up transports after the take off.
3. In the next 2 to 3 weeks, we will see NATO members and her partners, conduct the world’s most complex Noncombatant Evacuation Operations (NEO), except that the Biden administration will refuse to use that label due to domestic politics — the politics of this surrender of Afghanistan will be viewed through a different lens depending on who speaks.
“The developments of the last few days are bitter & will have long-term consequences for the region & for us. There is nothing to gloss over: We all - the federal government, the intelligence services & the international community - misjudged the situation,” said Heiko Maas (translated using google translate).
1. Humble and to the point. This is why I have so much respect for leaders in Germany in speaking truth to power; and it reaffirms the SAF’s decision to select German made weapons systems, like the Type 218SG and for Leopard 2SG crews to train in Germany. The first step to addressing a problem is accurate identification of points failures and a plan to move forward — a German approach that we can learn from.
2. In the coming days, the in evacuation of friendlies in Kabul, we will see the range and speed of A400M come into play (working alongside allied C-130s and C-17s) and gain a reputation for being a work horse. But the hidden gem is the refuelling tankers that top-up transports after the take off.
3. In the next 2 to 3 weeks, we will see NATO members and her partners, conduct the world’s most complex Noncombatant Evacuation Operations (NEO), except that the Biden administration will refuse to use that label due to domestic politics — the politics of this surrender of Afghanistan will be viewed through a different lens depending on who speaks.
(a) While many will in America will blame Trump's Afghanistan policy, I believe Biden owns the surrender of Afghanistan to the Taliban. Mind you, Trump’s policy was a product of corruption, incompetence, disinterest in human life, avarice, tunnel-vision, and sheer stupidity.
(b) President Biden, in the ABC interview, said that he hoped the thousands of US troops sent back to Afghanistan for the evacuations would be out by Aug 31, the deadline he set to end the war. But for the first time he said they could stay longer, adding: "If there's American citizens left, we're going to stay to get them all out."
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Other members would know better but my opinion is that neither is “better” per see; depends on the context. Both were born out of different operating philosophies and doctrine; both have their respective merits. If one operated a lot from austere locations; had poor or minimal support infrastructure; as well as a limited limited number of well trained support personnel; then the MiL-17 would probably be a more practical option.
To a very large degree
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2007yellow430
Active Member
What people forget is that the majority of Afgains did not want us there. Period. We should have learned that in Viet Nam. The end result is what we just saw, and what we saw in 1974.
Art
Art
Is that really true? In the 2001-2003 period quite a large number of Afghans, who were tired of years of endless war and instability, actually welcomed the presence of foreign troops because it was felt that it would result in lasting peace and a new Afghanistan. Then came Iraq and a whole list of factors which alienated a lot of Afghans.
Slightly different situation faced in Vietnam. I would argue that the U.S. did a far better “hearts and minds” job in Vietnam compared to Afghanistan. By the early 1970’s the insurgency war in South Vietnam was largely won; the guerrillas of the National Front took a severe beating at Tet and pacification efforts were quite successful. Most South Vietnamese were tired of the war and despised their government but wanted the U.S. to stay on because they knew what would happen once the U.S. left.
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The immediate and longer-term consequences of surrender —Part 2
4. The Taliban's spectacular takeover of Afghanistan has buoyed the spirits of their Islamic brothers-in-arms throughout the world. Islamabad’s reaction to the Taliban’s victory was the opposite of the despair in Western capitals: Their triumph showed that Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery”, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan asserted. Khan’s special assistant Raoof Hasan framed the fall of Kabul – for many, a moment encapsulated by footage of hundreds of Afghans running alongside a departing US plane, desperately trying to flee – as a “virtually smooth shifting of power from the corrupt Afghan government to the Taliban.”
5. In Malaysia, PAS foreign affairs bureau chief, Khalil Abdul Hadi is temporarily blocked from posting on Facebook because of a pro-Taliban post, and their bureau supplied this screenshot. It makes me concerned that PAS is going to be in the ruling coalition with UMNO and they are congratulating the Taliban. Unrelated to the above, I note that this is the 2nd time UMNO working with PAS brought down a Malaysian Government — first, Dr M’s Pakatan Harapan and now Muhyiddin’s Bersatu. Congrats to UMNO’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob on being selected as 9th Prime Minister of Malaysia — but Ismail Sabri Yaakob will have to survive a no confidence vote first.
6. Facebook and TikTok said they continue to view the Taliban as a terrorist organization and that content related to the group will remain banned on their platforms. The social media giants told CNBC they consider the Afghan group, which has used social media platforms to project its messages for years, to be a terrorist organization.
7. The scale of this huge voluntary departure of civilian non-combatants from danger in Afghanistan to a designated safe haven is not to be under-estimated. People are so scared and so desperate, they are forced to leave on a plane to escape Taliban rule by going to a place most of them have never to before without anything other than a bag and the clothes they are wearing.
4. The Taliban's spectacular takeover of Afghanistan has buoyed the spirits of their Islamic brothers-in-arms throughout the world. Islamabad’s reaction to the Taliban’s victory was the opposite of the despair in Western capitals: Their triumph showed that Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery”, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan asserted. Khan’s special assistant Raoof Hasan framed the fall of Kabul – for many, a moment encapsulated by footage of hundreds of Afghans running alongside a departing US plane, desperately trying to flee – as a “virtually smooth shifting of power from the corrupt Afghan government to the Taliban.”
5. In Malaysia, PAS foreign affairs bureau chief, Khalil Abdul Hadi is temporarily blocked from posting on Facebook because of a pro-Taliban post, and their bureau supplied this screenshot. It makes me concerned that PAS is going to be in the ruling coalition with UMNO and they are congratulating the Taliban. Unrelated to the above, I note that this is the 2nd time UMNO working with PAS brought down a Malaysian Government — first, Dr M’s Pakatan Harapan and now Muhyiddin’s Bersatu. Congrats to UMNO’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob on being selected as 9th Prime Minister of Malaysia — but Ismail Sabri Yaakob will have to survive a no confidence vote first.
6. Facebook and TikTok said they continue to view the Taliban as a terrorist organization and that content related to the group will remain banned on their platforms. The social media giants told CNBC they consider the Afghan group, which has used social media platforms to project its messages for years, to be a terrorist organization.
7. The scale of this huge voluntary departure of civilian non-combatants from danger in Afghanistan to a designated safe haven is not to be under-estimated. People are so scared and so desperate, they are forced to leave on a plane to escape Taliban rule by going to a place most of them have never to before without anything other than a bag and the clothes they are wearing.
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On a less serious note:
www.theonion.com
The Onion is a satire website — but what they say sounds true. The Taliban's spectacular takeover of Afghanistan has brought cheer to many that are not in Western cities.
After a slow start, it seems Biden is running neck-and-neck with Trump in seeing who can screw up more.
Critics Warn Withdrawal From Afghanistan Paints Entirely Accurate Picture Of U.S. Government
WASHINGTON—Characterizing the disaster left behind after a 20-year military intervention as completely indicative of what America stands for, critics warned Tuesday that the withdrawal from Afghanistan paints an entirely accurate picture of the U.S. government. “The collapse of a nation...
www.theonion.com
After a slow start, it seems Biden is running neck-and-neck with Trump in seeing who can screw up more.
Now subtract out women and everyone not of military age. Tell me what number you come up with.
I get it, though, you would have done better. Noted!
I'm always genuinely curious what the people who think going into Iraq caused us to fail in AFG think we would have done differently otherwise.
This is a really underappreciated point. My sense from you guys is that most of you kinda bought into the media narrative of the dysfunction of the Trump admin being directly traceable to Trump (and his admin')s incompetence. Biden's return was trumpeted as "The Adults are back in charge!" The people in the Biden administration are all supposed to be B2 (Best and Brightest); most of them are #ThisTown retreads who all have tons of experience (that's one reason I don't believe the idea discussed earlier that the problem was in getting secret material from the Trump admin outgoing; all the people who matter in this discussion could have used the old buddy network to get that stuff they needed anyway). This wasn't going to happen anymore!
I'm not going to try and tell you Trump was some kind of 4-D chess genius; he was not competent at all. But it's also clear now that it's not all on him, and that there is a major problem throughout the entire US military, and the entire US NATSEC environment. It is not all on 45. And that should terrify everyone here, because if the US is just too incompetent to figure this out, then uh...good luck you guys, I guess.
1. Agreed but Singapore’s political leadership has been acting on this assumption since Bill Clinton (42) — so nothing new. The last competent US national security team was led by Brent Scowcroft (under Bush 41). US Presidential scholars will remember him for shaping and defining the role of the national security advisor. To this day, new national security advisors turn to his model of foreign policy stewardship during the Bush presidency from 1989 to 1993 as the most effective national security process since the position was introduced by President Eisenhower in 1953. Brent Scowcroft is considered one of the three great foreign policy practitioners of his time, alongside Henry Kissinger, and Zbigniew Brzezinski.
2. The Shangri-La Dialogue is a "Track One" inter-governmental security forum was created in 2002 in anticipation of a multi-polar world. This is why the then Minister of Defence, Teo Chee Hean, announced plans for the purchase of F-15s in Sep 2005 and in Dec 2006, the purchase of Leopard 2A4s. It is logical to trace the decline that far back, all the way to Clinton. Singapore’s political leadership were complacent still under Bill Clinton (as it was still an American Uni-polar moment). By the time Bush Jr (43) came onto the scene in 2000, the rot had set it.
3. In a wide-ranging, almost hour-long sit-down studio interview with Charlie Rose in Oct 2009, the first prime minister of Singapore had already talked about how American intervention in Afghanistan will come to naught. At the 34min 12sec mark of the interview with Charlie Rose, LKY spent 6 mins explaining that nation building in Afghanistan was doomed to failure — it’s clearly implied that US NSC was too incompetent to figure this out.
4. Taiwan’s planning for war is about 12 to 15 years behind us. In contrast to Taiwan, Singapore’s military have developed our own CONOPS, the SAF trains enough and we buy advanced gear (as much as we can afford), to prepare for the security environment that we find ourselves it. 7 to 8 years ago, planning for the Type 218SG, started. Since 2017, the Singapore Navy and Air Force have been training in Guam (the second island chain) and have reduced our presence in Taiwan covertly.
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Going into Iraq probably would not have changed the eventual outcome given the lack of a “what after” plan with regards to rebuilding the political/economic aspects of the country; as well as several other flawed decisions but it did divert focus/attention (if not actual resources) from Afghanistan at a time when the Taliban and AQ had been defeated and when many Afghans saw the presence of foreign troops as a very positive sign.
Discussion on the Taliban and recent events. Lots of interesting points raised by the speakers.
A few days ago I mentioned Hekmatyar the archetype Afghan villain warlord who has been largely quiet in recent times. He’s in Kabul. From fighting other Mujahideen, to shelling his own capital as Prime Minister, to fighting the Soviets, living in exile and being on U.S. hit list; he’s done it all.
This is a very good assessment of the situation in Afghanistan.
www.bbc.com
Retired Australian SAS officer says that Taliban deserved victory and I would tend to agree with him.
Ghani is in the UAE and is lying about his reasons for leaving. I say lying because his actions speak louder than words.
Tom Tugendhat on UK and Afghanistan: Anger, grief, rage
Tory MP Tom Tugendhat speaks of the anger, grief and rage of veterans at the "abandonment" of Afghanistan.
www.bbc.com
Retired Australian SAS officer says that Taliban deserved victory and I would tend to agree with him.
Ghani is in the UAE and is lying about his reasons for leaving. I say lying because his actions speak louder than words.