Afghanistan War

[Blackshoe]

Does it take 20 years to train pilots, maintainers, etc, and only have 20 fixed wing attack aircraft?...
It should have been obvious that the US military could not stay fo Why did they not start training large numbers of pilots, aircraft maintainers, operation people eighteen years ago?

It takes 20 years if you start at a baseline of "90% of your population is illiterate".

I remember when they discussed adding a couple weeks of basic literacy courses to the ANA basic training, with an end goal of "giving them enough reading so they could recognize their own name and the serial number on a rifle". You are not going to make "large numbers of pilots, aircraft maintainers, and operations people" when that's your starting pool of applicants. That's why most of that support was contracted out (which we then unceremoniously cut last month). Same with most of their logistic services. You cannot run things smoothly when your clerks can't read (or at least, you can't do it the way we are used to, which may be another problem). Oh, and those literate types will be able to get much better paying jobs working for NGOs and other orgs than working for the ANAF.

Trust me, they tried hard to find Afghans smart enough to make it through a maintainer or pilot pipeline; large numbers of guys we did find smart enough deserted in foreign training schools. And there was no good way around that.

People do not appreciate how low a baseline there was to start with Afghans.

Afghans can actually maintain things in their own way...but it's not a way that any modern Air Force will accept (eg the Northern Alliance was able to keep an Mi-8 flying during the 90s by taking a transmission from a wrecked Mi-24 and jury-rigging it in, with the help of a guy making some Khyber Pass Copies of a few critical parts). Needless to say, that's not acceptable, sadly.

I will have more thoughts later on the fall of AFG (needless to say, it's been a weird week for me).

 

[ngatimozart]

I understand a German transport left Kabul with less than 10 people on board, presumably because other countries hadn't made a paper application to fill the empty space in triplicate three weeks previously.

Do you have a source for that? It's somewhat of a disparaging remark to make without a reliable source.

 

[CB90]

Another issue seems to be that what we left just wasn't even sustainable.
For example, the ANA is often, and fairly, criticized.

-But when their civilian leadership (Ghani) ignores military advice and orders them to take a stand at remote locations while failing to even resupply them with things like ammo so they can keep fighting, that's difficult to overcome.
-And if your system is so corrupt you don't get supplies (food, fuel, ammo, etc), or they actually end up in the hands of your enemy, you simply can't fight through that.
-They also took a very high number of casualties over the decade or so of being pushed into the lead of operations. They actually lost more fighting than they actually probably really mustered at the end (estimates seem to put the actual ANA force level at ~10-30K, rather than the 300K they carried on paper). This isn't to make the case they were exceptionally heroic...but it kind of makes the point that you can't sustain a force over that pace of operations when your loss to (actual) force level is that high. At the end, the Taliban were likely probably better able to rest and retrain their fighters than the ANA was.

I'm coming to some very weird mixed feelings about Taliban 2.0. And this has forced me to really re-process several things that I've been aware of over the years, but never actually put together since we pretty much took our attention off Afghanistan (even more than before).

One of the biggest things that I think got lost over the years, and especially in the transition between Administrations, was that we seem to have stopped looking at the Taliban as "the enemy." It's a very difficult change to try and culturally process, when you associate them with 9/11 and especially if you were part of directly fighting them for almost 10 years. But as early as 2012, we were actively messaging that we were open to the Taliban being part of the Afghan process (ie democratically, not through force). And when we started to directly negotiate with them in the 2019 timeframe, that was another big step in pushing them towards legitimacy. At about the same time, I also recall we were actively assisting them in fighting ISIS-K forces in Afghanistan (through airstrikes). And finally, obviously, we came to our own negotiated terms with them, including freeing several prisoners one of who is now the....President of Afghanistan, I guess?
I don't feel strongly about any of that one way or the other...in the end it got the US what we wanted, which was an exit from Afghanistan.

What I think we failed at was actually processing that change that the Taliban became a de facto pseudo legitimate government body in Afghanistan.
And in behaving like a government, for the most part, actually appeared to stick to the terms of the Doha deal, to include not attacking US forces (think about the incredible C2 challenges and discipline required for an insurgency to ensure no random trigger happy idiot pops rounds off at US troops), to the point they were actually actively attacking local Islamic extremist groups that were attacking locations with US forces. This even continued when we resumed airstrikes on them for...whatever reason. Having taken Kabul, they've allowed foreign media to continue, they haven't mowed down civilians trying to flee, or apparently even clashed with US forces. They haven't interfered with the ongoing evacuation operations and in some ways appear to be contributing to stabilizing the situation. I'm still skeptical of what is happening outside the view of the cameras, but they have run an incredibly slick PR campaign. Seriously...these guys are not at all the same as what the world derided as "camel jockeys" in the early 2000's.

The point is, at some point, the Taliban became a real government, and flipped governance of AFG from the bottom up, from popular control of the rural areas (by actually providing better government at local levels) to the capital. The West, not paying attention to Afghanistan, completely missed what was happening over the past year or two, and we really never came to terms with that. So this is a huge surprise...but in many ways probably shouldn't have been.

 

[Ananda]

Upps, seems AFP video can't be link to. So put the BBC one:

Is this for good, or temporary, only time can tell. However seems Taliban already learn from their previous 'administrations'. Some moderation is needed. So far seems they're not trying to rock the boat too much.

However what happens seems aline with prediction they will only provide some moderation. Girls can back to school, but I'm doubt it will be open to all level of educations. Some woman can go back to work, but I doubt it will be open for all occupation.

They will try to build society mirror to some Pashtun tribal governance in Pakistan, or some experience in Middle East (especially Saudi).

Perhaps that's why they're so far let some people run abroad. Perhaps they're thinking those who have liberal Western hope, well better just go, rather then create problem for them later on.

No mistake, the moderation if happen will not be in the scope under previous pro Western administration. That's for sure.

 

[STURM]

Ananda,

Yes still very early days and only time will tell but they appear to be doing and saying the right things; for now. As far back as 10 years ago observers such aa Ahmad Rashid were already saying that the Taliban had identified areas they needed to change and were reinventing themselves.

A lot remains to be seen; namely the level of trust and accommodation which can be reached with the various other ethnic groups. Territories which still remain free of Talibs includes areas in the east, the Pansjir valley and where the Hazaras are.

 

[STURM]

I also recall we were actively assisting them in fighting ISIS-K forces in Afghanistan (through airstrikes).

I was very surprised to learn this. A few weeks ago I posted a link to a podcast in which a U.S. veteran mentioned the save thing. He also mentioned an incident in which U.S. troops were given the wrong info by a Afghan government official. They intervened in a local business dispute amongst and were seen as taking sides. The result was one Afghan group called in the Taliban in response to what they perceived as American troops taking the side of a business rival.

On CNN Fareed Zakaria mentioned the Americans making deals in the past in which the Taliban would not attack American positions.

Fareed Zakaria: Dispense the fantasy that US was maintaining the peace in Afghanistan | CNN

CNN's Fareed Zakaria says a deal made by the US government with the Taliban made it appear to the public as if American troops were maintaining peace in Afghanistan when it was not the case and says the US was masking the reality that the Taliban were gaining ground in Afghanistan for years.

www.cnn.com

 

[ngatimozart]

I caught an Al Jazeerah program last night and it said that over the the years, one thing that the Taliban offered, that the then Afghan government didn't was justice. The vast majority of the people may have not the Taliban at all, but they did provide justice when asked to do so. When you think about it, tis an important consideration amongst populations - the administration of fair and equitable justice. I will see if I can find the link for it.

 

[Arji]

There are reports of resistance forming by the former vice president, and that they've taken a district already. Any news confirming it? How significant is this if it's proven true?

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 3: The rise of terror networks that led to 9-11

There are reports of resistance forming by the former vice president, and that they've taken a district already. Any news confirming it?

9. Likely to be true. There are multiple news report of Afghanistan's first VP Amrullah Saleh retreating to the country's last remaining holdout. The Panjshir Valley northeast of Kabul is not under Taliban control.

​

(a) Pictures began to surface on social media of the vice president with the son of his former mentor and famed anti-Taliban fighter Ahmed Shah Massoud in Panjshir — a mountainous redoubt tucked into the Hindu Kush.​

​

(b) Ahmad Massoud is Sandhust trained and has a degree in war studies from King College, London. He also has in-direct support from French citizens and his militia have been preparing for the collapse of Kabul since 2016. If you check one of the earlier posts (#298), I wrote about him.​

10. It is interesting that Afghanistan's First VP Amrullah Saleh has declared himself caretaker president (without American recognition or support). Citing the provisions of the Constitution of Afghanistan, Saleh said that the first vice president automatically becomes the caretaker president in the event of the president’s absence, escape or resignation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427728334969090052

How significant is this if it's proven true?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427844327430967302

11. At this time, not significant. The US military will not be willing to provide air support to Ahmad Massoud’s militia — Biden’s priority is to get Americans and SIV applicants out of Kabul and they need to hold this uneasy truce with the new Taliban government.

12. The Taliban are not under any pressure at all right now to cut a deal with the Panjshiris. They can ignore Ahmad Massoud indefinitely. While the Taliban cannot take the Valley, the Panjshiris can’t exactly leave. Unless they can rally more support from home and abroad. It will be more significant if Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum and Tajik leader Atta Mohammad Noor join the movement — of what I called Northern Alliance 2.0. The Taliban currently can’t control all of Afghanistan and odds are now stacked against the Northern Alliance 2.0, thanks to the betrayal at Kabul.

 

[STURM]

one thing that the Taliban offered, that the then Afghan government didn't was justice.

As recounted in Ahmad Rashid’s book and others; an incident which set the Taliban on the road to power was the case of a local boy who has been buggered by a warlord. The Talibs got together and warlord was lynched. They are/were known for swift and rushed justice.

They recently announced (I think it was reported by Al Jazeera) that cases from now on will only be handled by courts.

 

[STURM]

.

9. Likely to be true. There are multiple news report of Afghanistan's first VP Amrullah Saleh retreating to the country's last remaining holdout.

Interesting! I wondered what happened to him. He was a very capable intel chief and like Abdullah Abdullah was a Masoud protege.

Thank you for the update.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Do you have a source for that? It's somewhat of a disparaging remark to make without a reliable source.

I was being sarcastic about the reasons for the plane being nearly empty, but it did have only 7 evacuees on board. The Germans claimed that they couldn't take more because other persons they were planning to take couldn't get to the airport, but I'm not sure why they didn't reach out to other countries to ask if they had people that needed to be flown out.

 

[STURM]

Like in the past the ability of the Panjshiris to sustain themselves will depend on supplies reaching them via Tajikistan. In the past it was only aid from Iran, Russia and India that kept them going; including the sale of rare and expensive gems mined in the valley. Unconfirmed reports also mentioned the Northern Alliance being involved in the drug trade.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427883011207467009

Afghanistan’s currency has depreciated but will go into free fall soon, as this thread by the Central Bank Governor explains. During last days, he feared not only risks related to Taliban, but fear of transition period once there is no chain of command. Once president’s departure was announced, he knew within minutes chaos would follow.

 

[John Fedup]

According to this WP article, there are at least 7,000 Americans looking to exit Afghanistan. WTF were these people thinking when Biden announced his exit plan? While nobody expected the rapid collapse, there was little doubt a collapse of the government would occur sooner rather than later and these people should have begun flying out May 1.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/16/biden-must-rescue-thousands-us-citizens-trapped-afghanistan/

 

[STURM]

According to Al Jazeera the country’s reserves stand at USD9 billion; “about $7bn of which was held as a mixture of cash, gold US bonds and other paper at the Federal Reserve”. What is held in the U.S. has been frozen.

Protests in Jalalabad over the raising of the Taliban flag have resulted in several deaths from gunfire. Let’s hope things don’t worsen.

Kaizai, accompanied by Abdullah Abdullah; has met Haqqani. The former President comes from a prominent Pashtun family; the hope is rust the dialogue will lead to something fruitful.

 

[John Fedup]

An assessment of why Afghanistan forces folded so quickly. The points raised are pretty valid. As for the future of terrorism resulting from the Taliban takeover, a question time will answer. Certainly, important players like Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and India don’t want any “stuff” blowing back on them and hopefully the Taliban realizes this.

Why Was there so little Resistance when Afghanistan Collapsed?

Cipher Brief Expert John E. McLaughlin served as Acting Director of Central Intelligence from July to September 2004 and as Deputy Director of Central Intelligence [...] More

www.thecipherbrief.com

 

[STURM]

As for the future of terrorism resulting from the Taliban takeover, a question time will answer.

Now that they’ve regained power after 20 years; they won’t want to lose it. Given that they want to maintain power not given anyone a pretext to intervene in the country again; as well as its track record in combating IS (on occasion with U.S. support) and the very important fact that AQ and IS agendas and ideology differs to an extent to that if the Taliban; hard to see why it would willingly allow (to use a cliche) the country to again be a “breeding ground for terror”.

blowing back on them and hopefully the Taliban realizes this.

Developing ties with these countries are driven not only by financial considerations but also by strategic ones; even if these countries don’t officially recognise the Taliban government anytime soon; ties with these countries provide the Taliban with some level of legitimacy/recognition it fully realises it needs. No reason why the Taliban would do anything to jeopardise ties with these countries.

In his “Learning To Eat Soup With A Knife” John Nagl talks about “learning organisations”. I would argue that the Taliban has been an effective “learning organisation” in its ability to revamp, keep itself relevant and learn from its mistakes - it had to be given what was thrown at it from 2001.

 

[John Fedup]

As you say, it appears (so far) the Taliban leadership has learned from its mistakes wrt some of the past behaviour and knows it can’t provide excuses for another foreign intervention (not that there any nations left that would be interested in a boots on the ground approach). Tribal excesses and their foot soldiers will need to be controlled. How well this can be achieved will be critical.

 

[kato]

The Germans claimed that they couldn't take more because other persons they were planning to take couldn't get to the airport

No one ever claimed that. The official claim is a fair bit uglier. And not for Germany.

Official statement (which also confirms the 7 people evacuated, first sentence):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427520060441210917

"Aufgrund der chaotischen Zustände am Flughafen und regelmäßiger Schusswechsel am Zugangspunkt war gestern Nacht nicht gewährleistet, dass weitere deutsche Staatsangehörige und andere zu evakuierende Personen ohne Schutz der Bundeswehr überhaupt Zugang zum Flughafen erhalten würden. Eine Aufnahme von Personen, die sich am zivilen Teil des Flughafens aufhielten, wurde von den Partnern, die die Sicherheitsverantwortung am Flughafen ausüben, nicht ermöglicht. Das Flugzeug musste zudem aufgrund der Sicherheitsvorgaben der Partner nach kurzer Zeit wieder verlassen."
"Due to chaotic circumstances at the airport and regular gunfire exchanges at the access point it was not warranted that further German nationals and other people to be evacuated would gain access to the airport without protection by Bundeswehr soldiers. Taking people onboard that were present at the civilian part of the airport was not made possible by the partners exercising security authority at the airport. Additionally due to security requirements of the partners the aircraft had to leave Kabul within a short timespan".

It should be noted that by now evacuees have arrived in Germany, and among people interviewed there are children who report "how scary it was when they started opening fire".

Two hours after the above statement was published the German Minister of the Exterior tweeted that German soldiers were now "securing access" and thus evacuation of a first group was possible. The second and third evacuation flights the same day numbered 125, 139, the first one today was 176 people (and yes, they're flying above capacity too).

The source(s) of the problem alluded to above continue btw. According to reports from Kabul US soldiers are turning away Germans at the North Gate of the Airport right now and telling them "to come back on Friday". Also, somewhat oddly, during the night no flights were possible due to the airport firefighting response team apparently "not being available".

As a slight complication Uzbekistan is having German evacuation flights do a short stop over in Karshi to "to do a technical inspection" before the flights continue to Tashkent. This is presumably due to US reports of finding body parts in the landing gear of their aircraft.

(P.S. The word "partner" is official German parlance for the United States. It replaced the previous official term "allies" during Trump times.)