Indeed. Corruption a massive issue, as is the lack of the identifying with a 'country' in the Westphalian sense. This isn't limited to Afghanistan either.
Yet we have persisted in this madness, for want of a better alternative?
Afghanistan War
- Thread starter gree0232
- Start date
Yet we have persisted in this madness, for want of a better alternative?
Musashi_kenshin
Well-Known Member
There aren't really many recent examples. The Iraqis initially fled from Daesh but rallied the nearer they got to Baghdad and retook their lost territory. The quality of Afghanistan's police/army is an exception not the rule when it comes to NATO-trained forces.
Some units fought well; were well motivated and well led. Like in many other armies too much was asked from the few units they had which had a high combat value; namely the SF/commando units.
Others were less effective; especially those placed in exposed and isolated positions with minimal support and exposed flanks. There were also cases of units not being paid for months and receiving no concise orders.
I would suggest that the overall performance of the ANA was due to a variety of factors; many of which were reflective of various issues plaguing the country : tribalism, politicisation, corruption, economic issues and patronage.
The country once had a very capable intel chief: Amrullah Saleh. He was a Masoud protege and later became Vice President.
Others were less effective; especially those placed in exposed and isolated positions with minimal support and exposed flanks. There were also cases of units not being paid for months and receiving no concise orders.
I would suggest that the overall performance of the ANA was due to a variety of factors; many of which were reflective of various issues plaguing the country : tribalism, politicisation, corruption, economic issues and patronage.
The country once had a very capable intel chief: Amrullah Saleh. He was a Masoud protege and later became Vice President.
Last edited:
Iraqi regular units mainly broke and ran when IS when on the offensive. It rook Shia militias with Iranian help to stem the IS tide. Only at a later stage did reconstituted regular Iraqi units play a more effective role. Then came Western air power.
Last edited:
Especially when said soldiers haven't been paid for six to nine months. If it was me I to would be seriously considering looking for other forms of income, especially when the head shed lived in luxury and were corrupt as.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
The civil part of the airport of Kabul is a complete chaos, while the military part was in full operation. But it seems that for a moment (maybe its still the case) the runway was blocked by people who just climbed over fences.
nos.nl
www.bbc.com
It almost look like they are happily welcoming the C-17.
Duizenden wanhopige mensen op vliegveld in Kabul: 'Complete chaos'
Nu de Taliban de macht in hoofdstad hebben overgenomen proberen mensen op de landingsbaan in vertrekkende vliegtuigen te komen.
nos.nl
Afghanistan: US takes control of Kabul airport to evacuate staff
Crowds of fleeing locals thronged the runway, where foreign military planes are now landing again.
www.bbc.com
It almost look like they are happily welcoming the C-17.
Last edited:
Pentaprism
Member
Wow this is going to go down as another fine moment in US Interventionism. 20 years occupation and attempts to build a stable viable Western Friendly Government ends like.....this! Makes Vietnam look like the success of the Century
An Afghan military transport which entered Uzbekistan without clearance has crashed,
The Security Council will be meeting in a few hours and representatives from a number of countries will be speaking on Afghanistan; including Russia and China have expressed a desire for good relations with the Taliban.
Apparently a number of U.S. allies were taken aback by withdrawal announcement in April; complaining that the U.S. didn’t even bother to consult them.
Whilst the Afghanistan government may not have been an authoritarian dictatorship like Iraq and North Vietnam; some of the problems the ANA faced were similar to the Iraqi and North Vietnamese military. The ANA; in addition to factors also faced by the Iraqi and lVietnamese military; faced tribalism and others issues unique to Afghanistan.
A veer interesting book.
“The Dictator's Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes” (Caitlin Talmadge)
.
The Security Council will be meeting in a few hours and representatives from a number of countries will be speaking on Afghanistan; including Russia and China have expressed a desire for good relations with the Taliban.
Apparently a number of U.S. allies were taken aback by withdrawal announcement in April; complaining that the U.S. didn’t even bother to consult them.
Whilst the Afghanistan government may not have been an authoritarian dictatorship like Iraq and North Vietnam; some of the problems the ANA faced were similar to the Iraqi and North Vietnamese military. The ANA; in addition to factors also faced by the Iraqi and lVietnamese military; faced tribalism and others issues unique to Afghanistan.
A veer interesting book.
“The Dictator's Army: Battlefield Effectiveness in Authoritarian Regimes” (Caitlin Talmadge)
.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
With thousands of veteran fighters now having no single enemy, the tribalism and other issues may prove to be the Taliban’s biggest problem. Are all these guys going to stay on the same page? The historic record isn’t great. How long will it be before external players start backing their favourites if they openly split?
Maybe but despite the mention of Afghanistan not being a real nation but land populated by various ethnic groups who coexist but lack a national identity; there have been periods where the country was stable.
A lot will depend on the Taliban. Post 2001 they realised they had to change; to mellow down if they hoped to eventually regain power and be accepted. They also fully realise that they are under intense international scrutiny; Afghanistan is not as isolated as it was in the late 1990’s when they first came to power. If they can develop some level of understanding with the other ethnic groups: stability will follow.
To prepare for the future they have also already established links with China, India and Russia. My opinion is they couldn’t care less if the U.S. and EU doesn’t officially recognise them.
As for the neighbours; Pakistan naturally will play a vital role. A long border and a large Pashtun population in Pakistan; not to mention Pakistani fears of India being active in Afghanistan means that country will always be of strategic interest to Pakistan. Would be a mistake though to assume the Pakistanis have full control over the Taliban.
Another country vital to the overall scheme of things is Iran. Both countries share a long border and have links that goes back for centuries - natural that Iran wants a stable Afghanistan and will want to have influence there (like with Iraq). How many Afghans view Iran differs from how America does. For many years Iran provided refuge to Afghan refugees and together with other countries supplied anti Taliban groups at a time when the U.S. refused to do so. How the Taliban is able to improve relations with Shia Iran remains to be seen.
A lot will depend on the Taliban. Post 2001 they realised they had to change; to mellow down if they hoped to eventually regain power and be accepted. They also fully realise that they are under intense international scrutiny; Afghanistan is not as isolated as it was in the late 1990’s when they first came to power. If they can develop some level of understanding with the other ethnic groups: stability will follow.
To prepare for the future they have also already established links with China, India and Russia. My opinion is they couldn’t care less if the U.S. and EU doesn’t officially recognise them.
As for the neighbours; Pakistan naturally will play a vital role. A long border and a large Pashtun population in Pakistan; not to mention Pakistani fears of India being active in Afghanistan means that country will always be of strategic interest to Pakistan. Would be a mistake though to assume the Pakistanis have full control over the Taliban.
Another country vital to the overall scheme of things is Iran. Both countries share a long border and have links that goes back for centuries - natural that Iran wants a stable Afghanistan and will want to have influence there (like with Iraq). How many Afghans view Iran differs from how America does. For many years Iran provided refuge to Afghan refugees and together with other countries supplied anti Taliban groups at a time when the U.S. refused to do so. How the Taliban is able to improve relations with Shia Iran remains to be seen.
Last edited:
Shanesworld
Well-Known Member
It could be all irrelevant stock footage but the only images I can find of UK's 16th air assault at kabul airport show not a single soldier armed. This cant be right can it? I would have thought the would have taken every belt fed, m72 and ugl they could pinch. Not even pistols on them.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
Surprised if they don’t have sufficient arms. If true and they take casualties due to insufficient fire power response, senior decision makers will be deep feces.
They're armed well enough, with small arms at least. What the media are reporting may be something else.
Shanesworld
Well-Known Member
I would have thought so. Paras dont seem the kind to go somewhere like that naked. But the politicians seem like the people to do that to them. But literally only seen a loadmaster with a pistol.
This USAF C-17A lifted out 640 Afghanis from Kabaul in one flight.
Russian sources report that 22 military airplanes and 24 helos crossed from Afghanistan into Uzbekistan and were directed to Termez international airport, and 3 of the planes were directed to an alternate airfield (Khanabad). They were being escorted by Uzkbek MiG-29s, and one of the Embraer 314s collided with a MiG-29, causing the recent crash. The pilots from both sides catapulted out.
www.gazeta.uz
Границу с Узбекистаном пересекли 22 военных самолёта и 24 вертолёта Афганистана
За два дня воздушное пространство Узбекистана незаконно пересекли 22 военных самолёта и 24 вертолёта, в которых находились 585 вооружённых военнослужащих Афганистана. Во время сопровождения столкнулись самолёт Узбекистана МиГ-29 и афганский Embraer 314. Позже Генпрокуратура назвала сообщение не...
www.gazeta.uz
The future of Afghanistan could all go so many ways.
There is no script.
I just hope that after so many years of conflict some stability and peace comes to this land.
I recall some of my uncles tales of travelling from Europe to Asia overland via Afghanistan.
More adventurer than hippie, all you needed was a kombi / spare jerry can of fuel, a bunch of mates on a budget, a compass, and the spirit of adventure.
He still met locals with beards and guns, but that was their world in the early 60's and yet he and his mates still made it safely across this region with stories to tell.
Trust that world returns for a future generation to enjoy and for the locals to reap the benefits of trade and interaction.
Regards S
Ps - In the mean time the West will ponder how to tackle complex international contingency's that actually have an end game.
The good news is that the Taliban is not interfering with ops at the airport but then again why would it? Nothing to be gained - they’ve won and what’s left of the foreigners are leaving. Had Pakistan not closed its border and had the Taliban not captured most of the border crossings with other countries; we would have seen mass crossings by ANA units.
A very interesting take by someone who has long been covering the conflict.
“Propaganda about “nation-building” by foreign occupiers in Afghanistan and Iraq was always patronising and unrealistic. National self-determination is not something that can be fostered by foreign forces, whatever their supposed good intentions. They invariably consult their own interests first and last, and the Afghan government’s reliance on them delegitimised it in the eyes of Afghans, depriving it of roots within Afghan society”
www.aljazeera.com
“The US military presence was neither a brake on the Taliban nor a broader stabiliser. Even with boots on the ground in recent years, Afghanistan suffered record-breaking civilian casualty figures and a relentless targeted killing campaign against civil society. Even back in March, weeks before Biden announced the withdrawal, the Taliban controlled more territory than at any time since US forces entered the country”
A very interesting take by someone who has long been covering the conflict.
“Propaganda about “nation-building” by foreign occupiers in Afghanistan and Iraq was always patronising and unrealistic. National self-determination is not something that can be fostered by foreign forces, whatever their supposed good intentions. They invariably consult their own interests first and last, and the Afghan government’s reliance on them delegitimised it in the eyes of Afghans, depriving it of roots within Afghan society”
What went wrong in Afghanistan?
Washington’s apparent underestimation of Taliban strength and Afghan state weakness amounts to an intelligence failure.
“The US military presence was neither a brake on the Taliban nor a broader stabiliser. Even with boots on the ground in recent years, Afghanistan suffered record-breaking civilian casualty figures and a relentless targeted killing campaign against civil society. Even back in March, weeks before Biden announced the withdrawal, the Taliban controlled more territory than at any time since US forces entered the country”
Unless it really has to; the West will be in no hurry to do so again. If it does; I hope it cuts the hubris; takes a long hard look at how things previously went so wrong; has clear and achievable political/military objectives and has a “what after” plan which takes into account the need to not merely or largely rely on military means but also the need to “rebuild” things economically and politically.
When thing go ratshit and the West decides to leave; the locals end up paying the price and most of them can’t leave - we’ve seen this time and time again.
This is an interesting perspective on how things went wrong for the Brits.
“Losing Small Wars: British Military Failure in Iraq and Afghanistan” (Ledwidge)
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Taliban faces in Doha shown how they need some International support for governing Afghanistan. They know their problem the last time they in control. China already see Afghanistan as part of their belt and road policies. Now with the demise of US/Western influence in Afghanistan they saw the chances on building what they after. Land route for Iranian oil and gas through Afghan and Pakistan toward their own territory.
Taliban seems also know that they can only depends on Chinese capital for any Investment fund for considerable future. Looking toward how Indian media and forums reporting this, India also knows their chances to gain influence in Afghanistan already lost.
Question now, can Taliban Political leadership as shown in Doha, control their fanatical fighters in the ground to be relatively more moderate ? If they can, then perhaps the Taliban become the first power on Afghanistan to run practically more workable administration in there in decades.
Last edited: