Afghanistan War

STURM

Well-Known Member
Talking about Mil-17s I wonder what happened to the sole example operated by the Northern Alliance (may have been a Mil-8). It was extensively used to ferry Masoud around and made regular runs to Tajikistan; flying over very high terrain. Various journalists were flown in it. Was way past its scheduled maintenance check and parts of it were held in place by wire.

We’ve heard about Khan, Dostum, Atta, Haqqani and others but missing from the narrative has been Hermatyer. He’s the archetypal warlord : switched sides (as Prime Minster he shelled his own capital); made numerous escapes: attacked other Mujahideen groups, took refuge in a neighbouring country; has links with foreign intelligence agencies; committed atrocities and was on the hit list of the U,S.

He’s done it all.
 
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John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Talking about Mil-17s I wonder what happened to the sole example operated by the Northern Alliance (may have been a Mil-8). It was extensively used to ferry Masoud around and made regular runs to Tajikistan; flying over very high terrain. Various journalists were flown in it. Was way past its scheduled maintenance check and parts it were held in place by wire.
Maybe not state of the art but Mil-8 and it’s derivatives certainly lend themselves to less than ideal maintenance schedules by even less than ideal maintainers.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I have not heard or seen any info on this coming out of Herat. But it is always a possibility of them getting their hands on Afghan military assets. In the past the Taliban did have pilots capable of flying Russian origin helicopters like the Mi-17 and Mi-24/35. I am, however, unsure if they do now. Its been 20 years since anyone saw them with a helicopter.
Government soldiers and police are surrendering in droves, so... how much money would it take to get one to fly missions for the other side? Or, alternatively, whose family can they threaten to have them fly missions for the other side? Not to mention that it's quite likely some of them have at least some sympathies with the Taliban (or at least not have much love for the Kabul government). They just need a handful of pilots where these factors can be exploited. Especially if they're going to win, and rule Afghanistan, or a major part of it, with some tacit international recognition de-facto if not de-jure.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member

In 2.48 we see what appears to be a small calibre arty piece. No idea if it was captured or a Taliban piece. Can anyone ID it? Doesn’t look like a RCL to me.

In 3.41 there is a Talib armed with a RPG fitted with a very small warhead.


An interesting talk with Ahmad Rashid (author of “Taliban” and “Jihad”) from 9 years ago about how the Taliban had changed its approach to appear more accommodating or tolerant. Also mentions the Taliban reaching out to India; not what the Pakistanis want to hear.

He has made many trips to Afghanistan; spent time with Taliban and anti Taliban forces: covered the civil war and has been very critical of Pakistan’s role.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Quick follow up, here is the helo with rotor blades, a couple of helos without rotor blades, and two D-30s. So photos of at least 3 Mi-17s.


EDIT: They got a Blackhawk too, rotor blades and all.

Warning graphic images.

 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Maybe not state of the art but Mil-8 and it’s derivatives

The helicopter can be seen in this video. There is also what appears to be a Hummer.

Boris Johnson has said “What we must do now is not turn our backs on Afghanistan but continue, as a member of the (UN) Security Council, a country deeply involved in the strategic future of the area, to work with our partners, and make sure the government of Kabul does not allow that country, again, to be a breeding ground for terror,”

Again that cliche “breeding ground for terror” ... My question is what he intends on doing if the Taliban take the country or most of it and don’t turn it into “a breeding ground for terror”? Will he and his “partners” still provide material and other support to anti Taliban forces?

Another issue is how will the West respond if the Taliban take power and impose a less extreme version of Sharia? Will the West have relations with Afghanistan’s new rulers? The issue is that in general the West paints things in black/gjey : “moderates” and “non moderates”. This might look great on a PowerPoint slide or a State Department briefing but in realty it’s much more nuanced; can mean different things to the locals.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
All reports agree Ismail Khan was “captured” but Al Jazeera reports he was only “captured” after, as part of a deal; he was handed over with other officials and was later permitted to return to his residence. Given his reputation as a staunch anti Taliban fighter he was lucky he wasn’t lynched or shot.

If indeed the Taliban reach Kabul; it might be best for the government to declare it an open city and withdraw. Bad from a military and political perspective of course but at least it spares the civilian population. The city suffered badly when Jamiat Islami forces under Masoud fought it out against Hermetyer’s forces; as well as the Hazaras.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Unless I’m mistaken it’s been quite a few since the last reported use of a MANPADs by the Taliban; despite reports that they had obtained some. I suspect that the Taliban does have some which however have became inoperable because of battery or other issues.

On paper one of the few key advantages the Kabul government still enjoys is the ability to rapidly move men and material using its fixed wing and rotary transport fleet. Unfortunately we have no way of knowing how the government is utilising transport fleet as hardly any reports have emerged.

For that matter unless I’m mistaken there have hardly been reports of the types of U.S. air assets being used; nor the type of targets being engaged or whether air strikes have had any impact on the Taliban; although one of the Al Jazeera reports did include imagery from a missile strike. During the air campaign against IS regular reports were given on the numbers and types of targets engaged. I suspect a major problem is that Taliban units on the move do not present a “target rich environment” but their logistical tail - despite having a light footprint - would.

To me it’s telling that the Taliban have a captured Hip out in the open and are flying it without worries of being engaged by U.S. air power. I would think that captured Afghan government aircraft and certain abandoned bases would be prime targets.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
And there we have it, unconfirmed (for now) reports that the Taliban are using captured helos in their operations.

At the rate the Taliban offensive is going, I can't help but wonder if there's even any point to fighting them? It seems pretty obvious that they are going to be the closest thing to a government that Afghanistan will get, and there's no reason they wouldn't be able to govern (however poorly). At this point I just hope the US and allies evacuate those who are vulnerable to Taliban reprisals due to their work for the US and NATO forces.

 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
And there we have it, unconfirmed (for now) reports that the Taliban are using captured helos in their operations.

At the rate the Taliban offensive is going, I can't help but wonder if there's even any point to fighting them? It seems pretty obvious that they are going to be the closest thing to a government that Afghanistan will get, and there's no reason they wouldn't be able to govern (however poorly). At this point I just hope the US and allies evacuate those who are vulnerable to Taliban reprisals due to their work for the US and NATO forces.

Well, when all is lost in a war all you have left to defend is your pride. Of course, realpolitik would dictate acceptance of peace on the winner's terms so you get to live another day (provided that is on winner's cards), and who knows may be fightback again someday. There are reports of troops evacuating to Kabul. Let's see if they decide to escape, retire or fightback from there. Overall, Kabul might end becoming a besieged city and would likely give up once the supplies run out. My fear is longer the Afghan government holds on to power the worse would be the fate for them and possibly for Kabul and its inhabitants. According to reports, Mazar-i-Sharif has fallen. Nothing much stands in the way of Taliban. They are, at this point, the de-facto rulers of Afghanistan. Kabul should strongly contemplate peaceful transition ASAP.
 

SABRE

Super Moderator
Verified Defense Pro
So, it seems that the Taliban also have captured at least 4 Blackhawks
 

Sandhi Yudha

Well-Known Member
The speed of the Blitzkrieg carried out by the Taliban reminds me of the extreme fast one carried out by the ISIS in Iraq. Not much resistance by the government forces, local people brutally executed and brand new advanced weapon systems falling into the hands of barbarians.

I am afraid that the Taliban doesn't even need 90 days to conquer whole Afganistan, i am not surprised if they will do it in less than 30 days.

I am not go to say that Operation Enduring Freedom ends up in a total failure and that the whole ISAF-program is a waste of money and human lives.....but actually it is.


Now the Talibananas got their hands on some ScanEagle UAVs.

Update:
Kandahar has fallen, after Ghazni and Herat. Tarin Kowt (capital of the Uruzgan province) will probably be lost soon too.
Maybe even i am wrong, not 9 months, not 90 days, not 30 days. Because there is almost no resistance, and zero resistance from the government troops, Taliban will maybe even be on the doorstep of Kabul in less than a week. 24 of the 34 provinces are already under control of the Talibans.

Like @SABRE already reported, Mazar-i-sharif has fallen into the hands of the Talibans.




Update.
According to
the Talibananas are already at 50 km from Kabul.
According to an AP source they already reached a point 11 km from that city.
And some unconfirmed reports even tell that the Taliban already started an offensive from three fronts/sides to conquer Kabul..

Update 2
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Because there is almost no resistance, and zero resistance from the government troops,
There are ANA troops putting up fierce and determined resistance: the problem is that these troops are outnumbered by those who are not doing the same and are placed in unfavourable conditions without the needed support. Anti Taliban militias also face the same problem in that they are not receiving the support they need. There was a report that Dostum’s men only retreated after their flanks were turned when neighbouring ANA troops retreated.

The only solution to avoid civilian casualties in Kabul - as happened in the past - would be for the government to declare it an open city and leave. Hardly anyone predicted this; my assumption was that the Talib advance would eventually slow down and that things would evolve to a protracted conflict; both sides slugging it out but unable to apply a knock out.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
Dostum seems to have or is trying to escape to Uzbekistan. His palatial home is now under Taliban's control.
Last time around he was taken captive by his men who only let him cross into Uzbekistan after paying them off.

There has been little to no news about the Tajiks in the Panjshir valley. Looks like history will repeat itself and the valley will be the only place not taken yet by the Taliban.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Taliban have taken Jalalabad to the east of Kabaul cutting it off from the east and from Pakistan.


Also breaking news that the Taliban are entering Kabaul from all sides. Reports of unknown helicopters overflying the city.

 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 3: The rise of terror networks that led to 9-11

Also breaking news that the Taliban are entering Kabul from all sides. Reports of unknown helicopters overflying the city.
4. Earlier, the Taliban spokesman said that their fighters are being ordered to stay outside of Kabul pending negotiations on a transition. The US has deployed enough forces to stabilise the civilian withdrawal until the last US diplomat leaves town.
(a) The U.S. Embassy in Kabul - the nerve center of the war on terror - is being gutted of all its sensitive material, as the Taliban coils around Afghanistan's capital. The U.S. Embassy's demise will create an intelligence void that could plunge the U.S. into pre-9/11 blindness, unless it can find another nearby non-hostile country that will allow it rebuild its CIA network in Afg-Pak region.​
(b) The U.S. Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan will be evacuated of all but a handful of key personnel within the next 36 hours, and all American diplomats should be out of the country entirely by August 31, multiple security and diplomatic sources in Washington and Kabul told CBS News.​

5. Earlier, President Joe Biden said America would not reverse its decision to leave Afghanistan, despite the Taliban advances. “I was the fourth president to preside over an American troop presence in Afghanistan – two Republicans, two Democrats. I would not, and will not, pass this war on to a fifth.” President Biden ordered another 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne at Fort Bragg to join the operation, bringing the total to 5,000. He pledged only an increased deployment of troops to accelerate the departure of U.S. diplomats and their Afghan allies, and warned the Taliban that any injury to Americans would prompt a “swift and strong” military reprisal.

6. On Saturday afternoon, president Ashraf Ghani addressed the nation. Kabul had been swirling with rumours that he would step down to pave the way for a peace deal to spare the capital and its population. Instead he said he would reorganise the military, and made vague reference to “starting consultations” across society and with international allies — increasingly I think he is nuts. President Ghani’s “three-man banana republic” is drowning, but unfortunately, an entire generation of Afghan women are drowning with him.

7. Besides the Americans (5,000), the Australians (unknown number), the Canadians (unknown number) and the British (600 from the 16th Air Assault Brigade), have also deployed military forces to enable an evacuation of diplomats and friendly locals in the next 36 hours. Scott Morrison has flagged using troops to help evacuate Australians and interpreters who remain in Afghanistan.
(a) Western allies scramble to stage a series of mercy dashes ahead of the Taliban sweeping through the country.​
(b) Sources say that situation has deteriorated so badly in Afghanistan that the U.S. State Department has reached out to advocates to request names of Afghans in Kabul who have worked with the U.S. and need to be evacuated, including journalists and human rights activists.​
(c) USAF cargo planes and contracted aircraft are headed to Afghanistan to evacuate potentially thousands of Americans and Afghans per day.​

8. It is reasonable to assume that in some areas, Taliban cells and supporters are already present in Kabul undercover. Witnesses say Taliban have entered Kabul, in small numbers, from two directions. However, the main Taliban forces are still outside the city. Afghan Acting Interior Minister Abdul Sattar Mirzakwal said Kabul will not be attacked and that the transition will happen peacefully — the Afghan police are instructed to surrender. There's also going to be a lot of disinformation as well as misinformation by various local and foreign actors in the days ahead. It's not going to easy to rule Afghanistan, no matter who is in power.
 
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Hone C

Active Member


Bagram Air Force base has surrendered. Taliban now reported by a number of sources to be in outer environs of Kabul. This leaves Kabul's International Airport, located within the city, the only APOD available to evacuate Westerners from. It will be instructive to see how imprisoned AQ and IS members are treated by the Taliban.

It's being reported that the Afghan government will shift power to a transitional administration.
 
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