I think, at the end of the day, some years from now, Canada will order a token number of F-35. Doing so fulfills Canada's NORAD and NATO obligations and keeps the Americans happy, while at the same time allows funding to be focused on social services and education by minimizing defense budget. Canadian air force has not participated in any combat scenario since Liberals withdrew from War On Terror in 2015 when they came in power. Going for 2 or 3 squadrons of F-35 to replace the existing fleet of 76 F-18 is more than sufficient for Arctic patrols. The Russian threat of the 1970s isn't there anymore. This allows Canada to minimize defense budget to maximize funding for other sectors.
I think that approach is pretty short sighted. Just because there is no urgency now, does not mean there won't be a need in the future. 2015 was not that long ago. And things can change rapidly, especially with all the nonsense going on in the Ukraine right now as well as the sillyness down in the South China sea. We could find ourselves in a war pretty quick if we let down our guard. That is why it is critical to maintain NATO, NORAD, and our combined deterrent.
Despite how ignorant the current govt has been, they have shown that they do stick to what the procurement department recommends. They are sticking with the Type 26 for a ship (despite all the media attacks), and I think that bodes well for the fighter option.
I think the Liberals will call an election this fall, win their majority and then bite the bullet and go for the full 88 x F35s, no matter how much egg it leaves on Trudeau's face. It is the best option to meet our NATO and NORAD commitments. Most of our allies have chosen that plane, and commonality of weapons, sensors, ammunition, training, spares etc etc means a lot in a conflict.
My opinion