Part 3 — Is Operation Guardian of The Walls the 1st real world test of ‘smart trigger’?
They claim to have destroyed 3 battalions of Hamas rocket units, yet Hamas is still able to put out massive fire. Central cities were targeted with hundreds of rockets.
This claim of 2 contradicting approaches is making the public lose faith in the government, especially after approval rates have sunk to an all time low even before the operation.
12. Ramping up air strikes alone is not the solution but Blinken’s priority (which is different from Israel’s priorities) is to reduce the total amount of casualties on both sides. Israeli artillery is also taking part in Operation Guardian of The Walls, and 3,000 reservists have been called up to bolster the forces on the Gaza border should the situation escalate further. BBC reports that at least
28 Palestinians and 3 women from Israel have been killed. To give a proper context, other news sources explained that the Israeli military said at least 16 of the dead were militants.
13. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said:
"We believe Palestinians and Israelis deserve equal measures of freedom, security, dignity and prosperity, and U.S. officials have in recent weeks spoken candidly to Israeli officials about how evictions of Palestinian families who have lived for years, sometimes decades, in their homes and how demolitions of these homes work against our common interests and achieving a solution to the conflict."
The above statement shows the tremendous diplomatic pressure is being put on Israel to hold back on the scale of retaliation — this pressure is being applied because Israel has lost bipartisan support it once had on Capitol Hill. For details, read this article: “
Critics urge Biden to step up as violence spreads in Israel.”
14. The Israeli public's support for a peace process has fluctuated dramatically since the signing of the Oslo Accords.
(a) The upswing of support followed the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. This support for the Oslo process was reversed in late Feb 1996, when a string of Hamas suicide bombings claimed scores of fatalities. The reversal was probably the reason that former Labor Party Prime Minister Peres and parties on the left lost the 1996 national elections to Likud leader Netanyahu.
(b) In this May 2021 round of war, Hamas missiles being fired are more capable than those launched in the 2014 conflict, where the range is increased and the huge quantities are within intelligence estimates. I also suspect that Hamas tactics have changed. On average, Hamas is firing about 1 rocket every 3 mins in 2021 (which is a high tempo), and over 480 have been fired thus far — often firing large continuous salvos of rockets that are triggered remotely, after deployment. Of the 480 rockets fired, Iron Dome intercepted 200, and 150 fell within Gaza (as at 1935 hours on 11 May 2021).
(c) Intelligence preparation of the battlefield (IPB) exploits this same dynamic to make a reasonable prediction of adversary behavior. IPB infers from the situation and adversary capability what courses of action (COAs) the adversary is likely to take. The underlying logic of decision making is the same whether an adversary is on the battlefield or an individual is fighting to survive.
(d) From an international public relations angle and as part of IPB, the IDF is demonstrating to the world the scale of rocket, balloon, UAV and anti-tank missile attacks by Hamas, to regain international support for future Israeli ground operations, that may come. I suspect that the city-as-a-system perspective adoption has resulted in IDF adaptation; one tailored to address the unique operational data layers found within Gaza’s urban centers, their environmental dynamism, and their state of connectedness.
15. In a nationally televised speech to his country on 11 May 2021 (Tues), Netanyahu said:
"We have just finished a consultation and assessment of the situation with the heads of the security establishment and we made decisions. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have paid and will pay a very heavy price for their aggression. I say here this evening: their blood is on their heads.
...
I tell you something else this evening: this campaign will take time. With determination, unity and strength, we will restore security to the citizens of Israel.”
16. Earlier, Jen Psaki opened her daily news briefing with a statement about the situation, saying that President Joe Biden had just received an update from his national security team and that his primary focus was on de-escalation. In direct contrast to White House priorities, I believe that Israel needs to escalate the level of retaliation and should consider conducting limited ground operations as a mopping up step, to reduce the scale of rocket threat.
