The Situation With Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
It should be noted these ships were reportedly carrying either oil, to aid Iran's economy, or weapons to more directly bolster its proxies.
To and from two countries that are under sanctions, in illegal methods.
So I think some measures are needed.
Way I see it, there are 2 main ways for Iran to smuggle oil and weapons:
1)Transfer cargo to Syrian ports directly.
2)Unload cargo at random points in the sinai, then smuggle it to Gaza via land.
In both methods Iran can have its ships turn off the AIS, transfer to smaller legitimate ships, then change course and turn the AIS back on.
They also present different challenges because Israel's naval presence in the Red Sea is much smaller and requires high profile transits through the Suez.

Israel has 2 main courses of action:
1)Seize the ships and bring them to a nearby port.
2)Attack the ships with what is available at the time.

These 2 methods are very different in their effects.
First method is very high profile, and will surely raise tensions with Iran including incurring some serious retaliation attempts, especially in times of diplomatic efforts. It is however materially safer.
Second method is much more covert, but risks causing oil tankers sufficient damage to cause them to spill their oil.

I think it would have been much better if it was done in a cleaner way, but then again the responsibility lies with the sanctions breaking party.

Just recently an Iranian tanker spilled tar over 170km of Israel's shores, causing an ecological disaster that wasn't seen in decades. This incident occurred likely when the Iranian tanker transferred its cargo at sea to smaller disguised ships. Their tracking took time because they turned off AIS.
This is the cost of NOT confronting Iranian piracy.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Question. If the Iranian ships were sanctions busting, instead of getting all Rambo about it, Israel could have informed the US or one of the NATO / EU task forces operating in the area. That way Israel's hands are clean and they are not raising any tensions. And who's sanctions are they busting? Can you please define how Iran is committing acts of piracy in the Eastern Mediterranean? They haven't forcibly commandeered any ships have they?

The Israeli actions have no basis in international law because the tanker presented no direct imminent threat to Israeli national security. It was in international waters AND if anything illegal was suspected of occurring, it should have been boarded and secured, followed by a proper investigation with a chain of evidence.

Israel doesn't command the moral high ground because over the years it has been accused of war crimes and it has refused to acknowledge the accusations or offer any evidence to refute such accusations. This has just made it look guilty to those outside of the country. Yes I am a harsh critic, but then I am an outsider who sees the situation for what I perceive it to be, politics, hate, history, culture, religion, foreign colonialism and interference, and all.

The Iranian problem wouldn't happened if the CIA hadn't overthrow Mossadegah, the elected PM of Iran in 1953 and installed the Shah on the Peacock Throne. All because Mossadegah nationalised the oil industry and the British got their noses out of joint and asked the US to do their dirty work for them. They didn't want to dirty their hands and be blamed for it.

Your post is a tad emotive and appears possibly jingoistic. Now if you cannot accept others constructive criticism then maybe you have a problem.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Before I continue with my reply, I must note that the WSJ article is locked behind a paywall for me so I've read the ToI story. I'd appreciate it if anyone with subscription to WSJ could say whether any crucial detail is missing in ToI's article.


Question. If the Iranian ships were sanctions busting, instead of getting all Rambo about it, Israel could have informed the US or one of the NATO / EU task forces operating in the area. That way Israel's hands are clean and they are not raising any tensions.
There is no evidence to point to whether Israel has, or has not, done it. Israel is known to cooperate with the US and European on such matters. Israeli strikes in Syria, for example, are coordinated with the US constantly.
Aside from the US, Israel cooperates a lot with Germany against Iran, as well as to some extent with the UK, Austria, and France. It does so both for diplomatic support, and IMO because it does not wish any report to come as a surprise to its allies.
I think an "here is our intel, you can confirm it independently, and here we've acted based on our intel, those are the results" approach is appreciated because it's transparent.
I don't remember where I've read it, probably on a Hebrew website, that it was coordinated with the US at least.
And despite not being a NATO member yet, Israel has long been a participant in NATO anti piracy missions in the east med. It is still, IIRC, a member of a NATO task force, therefore it is possible it was acting within the legal framework of NATO.

And who's sanctions are they busting?
I admit I do not know the details. All I know is there are sanctions that prevent trade of oil and arms between Iran and Syria. If anyone can explain what the sanctions exactly prevent, and why they do or do not apply here, I'd happily learn and educate.
But if it was perfectly legal, why would they transfer their cargo to smaller ships, while everyone involves is turning off their AIS (Automatic Identification System)? Isn't that illegal by itself?

Can you please define how Iran is committing acts of piracy in the Eastern Mediterranean? They haven't forcibly commandeered any ships have they?
You are correct. I've misused the term "piracy". I'll correct myself and say Iran has only, to my knowledge, has only committed acts of piracy in the gulf.


The Israeli actions have no basis in international law because the tanker presented no direct imminent threat to Israeli national security.
Is transfer of arms not a threat to Israeli national security? What difference does it make if it's going to turn into a threat in a week or a month since then?
I'm sure with that logic, a North Korean ship transferring a nuclear missile to Syria, would also be legally safe from any foreign intervention?
What law exactly is broken here?

Israel and Iran are officially at war since 1985, making these tankers legitimate military targets regardless of their location.

It was in international waters AND if anything illegal was suspected of occurring, it should have been boarded and secured, followed by a proper investigation with a chain of evidence.
Which in turn would lead to increased tensions with Iran. There is a reason why Iran was also keen to hide these incidents - it allowed them to save face. And Israel, by allowing Iran to do that, has reduced tensions and prevented an escalation that nobody wants, especially Iran.
Had Iran commented in any way, it would admit to violating sanctions, which would have increased domestic pressure on any American administration to demand more of Iran in the next JCPOA 2.0.

Israel doesn't command the moral high ground because over the years it has been accused of war crimes and it has refused to acknowledge the accusations or offer any evidence to refute such accusations.
So, is the US on a moral equal footing with North Korea, because the US was accused of war crimes? Is Australia morally equal to North Korea because its troops were recently accused of numerous war crimes?

Accusations are just that - accusations. Unless they are followed by an admittance by the accused party, they carry 0 legal and moral weight until proven beyond any reasonable shred of doubt.

Israel is not yet on trial for war crimes, so it has no venue in which it can refute those accusations in a formal way. But officials have given interviews many times over the years addressing these concerns.
It will be on trial fairly soon, by the ICC. But that in itself is a gray area as well, because the ICC does not have the jurisdiction yet to investigate Israel.

Regardless, even if minor crimes are proven to have happened, which Israel has not yet investigated, it does not make Israel's moral standing any lower. Comparing it to Iran is disingenuous. It's apples to oranges.

As I've introduced myself in this forum, I'm a former member of the Israeli intelligence community. The intelligence community does military operations that are in a gray area - because they are covert. Still, even in operations that may sound daring and legally risky or banned, there is actually a legal logic, and for a damn good reason the IDF employs a solid amount of legal advisers in basically every branch.
Not once have absolutely vital military operations with very high military value were cancelled, at the orders of said legal advisers.
The majority, actually. Had every operation been given a green light by lawyers, we'd have seen several times more "incidents" and operations occurring. And these cancellations happen at the last minute, usually after around 2-5 years of work, and tens of millions of dollars spent.

And legality does matter even if the operation is covert, because the assumption is that anything can be found out and proven.

So please, don't talk to me about legality of such things. Were we really such war criminals that only seek to kill as many civilians as possible, or terrorize every nation in existence, you'd have known that.


This has just made it look guilty to those outside of the country. Yes I am a harsh critic, but then I am an outsider who sees the situation for what I perceive it to be, politics, hate, history, culture, religion, foreign colonialism and interference, and all.
You are not the true audience of this story. Neither am I. The audience is state leaders and military planners. This story being published marks a change in the course of the tanker war.
All actions will now be more overt, if not outright overt. And this could either be for Israeli interest to put pressure on Iran, against Israeli interest to keep acting against Iranian forces, or due to the recent Iranian oil spill on Israel's shores.
Overall, you seem to view Israel lowly, and Iran more highly, so any incident between the two will be portrayed for you as something Israel is guilty of. But that's your individual opinion to which you are morally, and thankfully legally entitled to, and you cannot really act on it. And the same applies to everyone else reading this story.

The Iranian problem wouldn't happened if the CIA hadn't overthrow Mossadegah, the elected PM of Iran in 1953 and installed the Shah on the Peacock Throne. All because Mossadegah nationalised the oil industry and the British got their noses out of joint and asked the US to do their dirty work for them. They
Maybe. I disagree with you. But even if I would accept your opinion entirely, how is Israel related to it?
Israel is now suffering from Iranian terrorism. It did not overthrow any Shah and is not responsible for the hostilities it faces. In 1953 or 1979 it was barely capable of merely fending off the incompetent Arab forces around it.

Israel now has to deal with the consequences of other nations' actions.


Your post is a tad emotive and appears possibly jingoistic. Now if you cannot accept others constructive criticism then maybe you have a problem
An emotive post would have called for every Iranian smuggling ship to be commandeered and paraded to the nearest port, to humiliate Iran into a retaliation, to which we could answer by bombing the shit out of their proxies in Syria and Iraq and Lebanon and Yemen and Afghanistan. But that's the very opposite of the stance I took.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I'd also like to remind of this incident:

An Iranian tanker, sailing from Iran with no identification, has spilled tar that irreversibly contaminated over a hundred miles of Israel's shores, basically almost the entire shoreline, in an act of eco terrorism.

Even if it isn't a conventional security threat, it does force the Israeli government to pay a lot for cleanup works, and directly endangers those going to the beach and the sea creatures in the east med.
If Iranian tankers keep going to Syria to offload arms and oil, we can expect more ecological disasters to occur.

I live very close to the beach. How close? I can reach the water within less than 60 seconds from getting up from my couch in the living room. I've seen tar covered and filled turtles, fish, and other creatures washing up on the beach. I can't safely send the kids to play in their favorite spots because I fear for their life.
If the right course of action is to deal with these ships with military force, then so be it.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
US confirms that 12 Iranian merchant ships were attacked by Israel (going back to 2019) — Part 3


10. I see your point of view, which is valid; but we should note that some of the cargo carried Iranian weaponry destined for the Syrian government.
I'm honestly not sure why this matters? Are there Security Council sanctions in place that would prohibit Iran from delivering weapons to Syria? We may all believe this is a bad idea (in point of fact we don't all believe so, I personally have no problem with it, but for arguments' sake) but how does this prevent two sovereign nations from engaging in trade or military aid?

11. It’s about choice, when making an American policy u-turn — I don’t think this American choice will result in a more compliant Israel, going forward. Joey Hood, the Acting Assistant Secretary of State could simply and behind closed doors tell Israeli diplomats of the American desire for Mossad to stop these covert attacks, as the tit-for-tat hurts all merchant shipping — before escalating to the public domain.
It may, it may not. It may not result in a compliant Israel but in an Israel whose objections are easier to dismiss internationally, especially vis-a-vis other US allies. But to play devils advocate, would a closed doors request to stop the attacks lead Israel to be more compliant on JPCOA 2.0? I suspect even less so. Quite the opposite, Israel may see this as a gesture of goodwill on their part, complying with a US request, and consequently be less willing to accept a new deal with Iran.

12. If Israel has nothing to lose, they may initiate a direct strike on Iran; which will then polarise the US Congress and destabilise the region a little more.
Israel always has something to lose. The question is whether that something is credibly threatened by the consequences of their actions.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
I think that a short victorious bombing campaign against Iran without subsequent democracy building would be perfect to counter, diminish, and deter Iran strikes against US bases. Would be a good opportunity to test the S-300 killer system and new electronic warfare capabilities.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I think that a short victorious bombing campaign against Iran without subsequent democracy building would be perfect to counter, diminish, and deter Iran strikes against US bases.
It would solve nothing as the Iranians
- directly or otherwise - would eventually retaliate and things would rapidly spiral out of control with devastating effects for the region and eventually; elsewhere.

No doubt certain countries would welcome a hit on Iran but it’s not as if the Iranians are going to back off after being hit and not as if airstrikes are guaranteed to produce the desired poltical results.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
It would solve nothing as the Iranians
- indirectly or otherwise - would eventually retaliate and things would rapidly spiral out of control with devastating effects for the region and eventually; elsewhere.

No doubt certain countries would welcome a hit on Iran but it’s not as if the Iranians are going to back off after being hit and not as if airstrike are guaranteed to produce the desired poltical results.
Iran already retaliates. I am not talking about a strike, I am talking about diminishing their ability to retaliate and dismantling their nuclear program.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I am talking about diminishing their ability to retaliate and dismantling their nuclear program.
You spoke of a “short victorious campaign”. What if it fails do deliver the intended results and is not “short” and “victorious”? What next?

I’m hoping common sense and real politik prevails and the Biden administration makes an effort to engage the Iranians and to reach some kind of accommodation which is mutually beneficial. Sure; the Iranians are no angels but neither are the other players and like everyone else the Iranians have their key interests to safeguard too.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Iran already retaliates. I am not talking about a strike, I am talking about diminishing their ability to retaliate and dismantling their nuclear program.
How big of a bombing campaign are we talking, and who is conducting it? Nuclear programs can be hardened and underground. Also they're somewhat retaliating, but are you really under the impression that they can do no worse? Or that whatever way they have to escalate isn't a concern? Otherwise the point stands, this would cause Iran to escalate/retaliate.
 

SolarWind

Active Member
You spoke of a “short victorious campaign”. What if it fails do deliver the intended results and is not “short” and “victorious”? What next?

I’m hoping common sense and real politik prevails and the Biden administration makes an effort to engage the Iranians and to reach some kind of accommodation which is mutually beneficial. Sure; the Iranians are no angels but neither are the other players and like everyone else the Iranians have their key interests to safeguard too.
Iran's government is headed by religious fanatics who cannot be allowed access to nuclear weapons. How much time is really left for diplomacy, has it not failed so far in delivering intended results? This is common sense and real politik.
How big of a bombing campaign are we talking, and who is conducting it? Nuclear programs can be hardened and underground. Also they're somewhat retaliating, but are you really under the impression that they can do no worse? Or that whatever way they have to escalate isn't a concern? Otherwise the point stands, this would cause Iran to escalate/retaliate.
So what kind of escalation could Iran go for? They are already quite aggressive given their limited capabilities.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Would be a good opportunity to test the S-300 killer system and new electronic warfare capabilities.
If the S-300 fails to perform as advertised it would be costly for the Iranians and potentially embarrassing for the Russians but if it performs as advertised; it would be costly and embarrassing to the Americans.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Iran's government is headed by religious fanatics who cannot be allowed access to nuclear weapons.
By right nobody should be “allowed access” to nukes ...

If indeed they are get nukes; it would be in response to actions undertaken by others (what is perceived as a great threat) and it would be a desperate and drastic move to ensure regime change never occurs - something the North Koreans understand very well and something Saddam and Ghadaffi regretted not having.

It’s worth pointing out that nuke ambitions began when the Shah was in power. It was discontinued after the Shah fell but revived when the Iranians got word of Saddam’s programme in the 1980’s; with complete silence from the West.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
How much time is really left for diplomacy, has it not failed so far in delivering intended results? This is common sense and real politik.
Was the U.S. walking out of the nuke deal “diplomacy”? We keep hearing about what a threat Iran is but what about actions by U.S. allies? Is it “diplomacy” when double standards, hypocrisy and a one side narrative is the norm?

One would think it’s only the U.S and it’s allies which have core interests to safeguard. Like I said; the Iranians are no angels but neither are the other players.

So what kind of escalation could Iran go for? They are already quite aggressive given their limited capabilities.
It can escalate in various ways against both soft and hard targets and against both U.S. and non U.S. targets. It has a lot of influence and support in various places in the region; a few hundred ballistic missiles and the asymmetric means to do various things; including shutting down or disrupting the Straits of Hormuz.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
By right nobody should be “allowed access” to nukes ...
General discussion about nuclear weapons is OT. In relation to Iran, the question is: can the religious clerics, who hold supreme power, be expected to act rationally, with rationality defined as seeking best outcome over long term in terms of physical reality? An affirmative answer is doubtful. Also, the fact that they export and sponsor guerilla tactics/terrorism is another big red flag.
It can escalate in various ways against both soft and hard targets and against both U.S. and non U.S. targets. It has a lot of influence and support in various places in the region; a few hundred ballistic missiles and the asymmetric means to do various things; including shutting down or disrupting the Straits of Hormuz.
I am not convinced that Iran's current capabilities would allow for a significant escalation that cannot be countered by scaling up existing tactics.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
Was the U.S. walking out of the nuke deal “diplomacy”? We keep hearing about what a threat Iran is but what about actions by U.S. allies? Is it “diplomacy” when double standards, hypocrisy and a one side narrative is the norm?

One would think it’s only the U.S and it’s allies which have core interests to safeguard. Like I said; the Iranians are no angels but neither are the other players.
You can't solve the situation with Iran, nor ignore the threats posed by it by detracting attention to diplomacy and policy choices of past US administrations. I will not comment on your characterization of them. Iran is hardly the victim with everything they got out of the deal. Geopolitics is not based on a contest of victimhood. It is based on rational choices given clear understanding of the current situation.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
You can't fix the situation with Iran, nor ignore the threats posed by it by detracting attention to diplomacy and policy choices of past US administrations.
Neither can you “fix” the situation with Iran with a “fast and victorious campaign” with no idea on how to deal with what comes after ...

To really “fix” the situation; real diplomacy is needed; with the concerns and interests of all sides taken into account .....all sides making the needed compromises ...

It is based on rational choices given clear understanding of the current situation.
Right but U.S. policy towards Iran (or the region as a whole) has clearly not been based “on rational choices given clear understanding of the current situation” as you put it. It has been highly flawed and not in the interests of the U.S. nor of the region but it has played in the hands of certain U.S. allies.
 
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STURM

Well-Known Member
General discussion about nuclear weapons is OT.
I fail to see how it’s OT.

the question is: can the religious clerics, who hold supreme power, be expected to act rationally, with rationality defined as seeking best outcome over long term in terms of physical reality? An affirmative answer is doubtful.
The answer is - right or wrong - that nukes are intended to safeguard Iran against regime change; not to be employed in a irrational manner by a leadership; which fully understands the risks/consequences of employing them. A nuclear Iran is also the last thing various countries want because it would severely limit their options with regards to military action.

A nuclear related question which you’ll probably say is OT : if at some point in the future Saudi acquired a nuke capability to counter Iran; would we see the U.S. applying the same level of pressure as we see with Iran?
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
Neither can you “fix” the situation with Iran with a “fast and victorious campaign” ..

To really “fix” the situation; real diplomacy is needed; in which the concerns and interests of all sides taken into account .....both sides making compromises ...
You are resorting to an ad hominem attack against me because I make a good argument. I never said that a fast and victorious campaign will fix the situation with Iran. You misquote me by rearranging my quotes out of context, trying to put words in my mouth.
Right but U.S. policy towards Iran (or the region as a whole) has not been based “on rational choices given clear understanding of the current situation” as you put it
I would argue that U.S. policy should always be based on rational choices given clear understanding of the current situation.
 
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SolarWind

Active Member
A nuclear related question which you’ll probably say is OT : if at some point in the future Saudi acquired a nuke capability to counter Iran; would we see the U.S. applying the same level of pressure as we see with Iran?
I would not judge such a question as OT, but I also cannot address such a hypothetical. You are again trying to put words in my mouth.
 
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