Sorry I should have been clearer, I meant an enlarged centre fuel tank or additional centre fuel tanks as Airbus has done including a 12,900l RCT with an optional 3,121l forward ACT.
General Aviation Thread
- Thread starter gf0012-aust
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Before Vic went into stage 4 Qantas was using the Q400 turboprop between Melbourne and Sydney which used to be one of the world's busiest air corridors.
At this stage few airlines will be using wide bodies. Not enough demand and easier to break even on a narrow body at 60% capacity then trying to fill a wide body to 60%.
Won't see too many Boeing aircraft in Qantas over next decade or so. Already got firm order for the A321XLR (36 aircraft) and delayed order on the A350 with apperantly interest over last couple years on the A220 to even replace some of the 737 routes.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Depends on each airlines operation cost I believe. Some Airlines already done temporary partition that makes their passanger airliner become temporary combo configuration.
It's simple partition where front half still for passanger while back half they are strap Ini cargo on top passanger chairs.
If they still can make modifications for Max 10 for longer range, I think it can attract more interest. I've talk with people from Garuda before COVID during their session with creditors and Investors. They're in negotiations with Boeing to replace 49 MAX 8 they've dropped with combination of Max 10 and 787. However they are talking for Boeing to give better range on MAX10, and from what I heard other Airlines shown some interest for longer range MAX10.
Commonality factors play big for Airlines. Garuda for example used mostly Boeing Fleet with 737 and 777. They got A330, but seems there are plan that they're thinking to replace those A330 with 787. While their low cost subsidiary Citilink used A320 and begin to induct A330Neo for longer routes.
Off course the COVID situation put everything in shambles, right now all Airlines in survivability mode. However medium-long range single aisle will be more attractive after this COVID due to market attraction for city to city routes (by passing Mega Hub). This COVID situation I think will attract more market on direct city to city routes even the relative thin ones. People wants to reduce their flight time.
That's what middle of the market standing for, and that's why I still believe Boeing will have to do something to keep their presence in this segment.
Commonality is very important which is another reason I don't see a revamped 757 being a success. For airlines it would have its own crew training, its own supply chain and its own maintenance differences that would make it a costly niche asset compared an airline with an A320neo family which would benefit from many common components from training to parts.
Boeing does have to do something even if it's just to stop airlines from thinking of switching from a 737 mixed fleet to an A320neo family fleet for commonality. With their financial position it needs to be done as quickly as possible for as little as possible which to me comes back to a 737MAX 10 with additional ACT's or an RCT. yes will take away some cargo hold space but if few are buying it and others are actually asking for the extra fuel so they will buy them then it isn't even an option of do or don't, it's just get it done. On a business case more airlines will but a 737 over say a 787 or 767 so makes more sense sales wise to concentrate the work onto the MAX 10.
In regards to Garuda I'm not sure on the 787 as they are going ahead with an order for 14 A330-900neo. Will likely see them retire the 6 oldest A330-300 as they are 23-27 years old respectively with the others being less then a decade each. Getting A330neo and 787 would be counterproductive for them.
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Here in NZ internal flights are operating quite well with Air NZ increasing its its flight schedules, but not to the pre-Covid-19 levels yet. No quarantining etc., but not sure if masks are required. Yesterday the government warned Kiwis about getting complacent about Covid-19 and said everyone should have a masks in the homes as part of their emergency kits for when we get community transfer of Covid-19 again. We've gone 100 days without any community transfer but it will only be a matter of time. We've just got to look at Victoria to see how quickly it can get out of hand. It doesn't help that our Ministry of Health still hasn't got its shit together at the border and in the quarantine centres. Everybody else there has been performing excellently, but not the Ministry of Health. They still continue to drag the chain.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
The previous plan before this COVID that I heard from them was to weigh in option for All Boeing Fleet for Garuda and All Airbus Fleet for their low cost subsidiary Citilink.
Garuda in the process to release all their CRJ and eventough there's talk in Media before that they will transfer all their ATR to Citilink, but the new CEO seems just want to get rid of ATR too.
Some people will think why differentiate two Airliners brands in one group, as Garuda as group will still have to sustain both Airbus and Boeing fleet anyway. However Citilink and Garuda is legally different entity, thus their book will be different. Thus, even they are one group, but the cost structure for each book will be different.
Off course again as I mentioned before on my previous post, this plan being considered before COVID situation and before New Management coming in.
As this COVID, or after the COVID, I don't even sure which way they're planning.
Citilink already operate A320 and begin inducting A330Neo. They want to follow Air Asia model of operating low cost for regional and long range flight. Garuda 787 talk being put by previous CEO when they're cancelled the MAX8 order, as part of Renegotiation with Boeing.
With current situation, I'm even not sure they will going to take all their A330Neo option, as seems all Airlines now all over the world rethink their fleet strategy development.
However if the airline industry condition improve faster, it's also a sensible strategy for Garuda's as Group differentiate their long range fleet with 787 on Garuda and A330Neo on Citilink. Just like they already differentiate the Short-Medium range fleet with 737 on Garuda and A320 on Citilink.
In fact some Investment Analyst put assessment that in support Future Garuda should only operate All Boeing with 737 and 787 while Citilink with All Airbus with A320 and A330Neo. Thus they think Garuda not only has to ditch CRJ and ATR (as Garuda's new Management seems agree on that), but also ditch 777.
All this as example how after COVID situation, Airlines will and should continue simplified their fleet. I agree with your assessment that it will be difficult for Boeing to persuade Airlines that already used A321, but in the same time Airlines that already used Boeing will think twice to move to Airbus. Which why I do still think Boeing will still try to come out with their middle of market answers soon, because they can't let all 757 customers when to Airbus. It will be very difficult for Boeing to attract them back, once they move to Airbus.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
FAA already release their 'initial phase' on Airworthiness Directives, as one step further for eventual Airworthiness Certificate. If those release by end of this year, perhaps some time still can be catch up by Boeing to at least closing in with Airbus in single aisle market.
The AD as predicted directive on several system upgrades that basically guarantee manual Flight Control override from the system.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
The FAA approval will clear out most of the already built jets but COVID will determine at what rate. As for closing the gap with Airbus, unless Boeing has a firesale plan, probably not.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
This article mentions United will lay off 3,900 pilots in October, about 1/3 of its pilots. I am surprised it is this low. WRT to reducing seats from 76 to 70 on their Embraer regional jets, wow, with social distancing like that, passengers will be scrambling to get on board....duh.
www.flightglobal.com
United begins removing seats from regional aircraft
United Airlines has begun removing seats from Embraer 175 regional aircraft, a strong indication that broad pilot furloughs are imminent.
www.flightglobal.com
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
A modified Caravan, but not the AC-208 Combat Caravan.
So it seems to be an unarmed version.
www.ainonline.com
So it seems to be an unarmed version.
Rwanda To Receive Special-mission Cessna Caravans | AIN
The sale of two Cessna Grand Caravan EXs to the Rwanda Defense Force is made possible through U.S. government grant aid funding.
www.ainonline.com
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Boeing publicises new name for 737 Max planes after crashes
Statement unveiling new order from Polish airline calls it a 737-8 aircraft first, before noting it is a Max jet
www.theguardian.com
Boeing seems begin more preparation for returning MAX to the market. However seems they're begin to call them 737-8 and sideline MAX in their marketing tools. Seems they are going to send signal to the market that this is going to be different plane than MAX.
Quite interesting to see how they're going to campaign on 737-8 will be different than MAX. Well in the sense, they have a point. With the amount of changes in software and sensors they're working on, what comes out perhaps a different plane than MAX. Hopefully in good and much better way in operation.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
It had better be, whether the market accepts it as such will likely depend on the discounts offered. If I owned an airline and had delivery flexibility, the discount would have to be huge for me to not to select the A320/321 family.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
It was grounded before the pandemic and had the pandemic not occurred, do you think it would have been flying any sooner? Why would customers flock back to the MAX after all the stories about how Boeing took a tired design and neonized it on the cheap in order to try to persevere marketshare from at least one competitor (maybe two if Bombardier had its “stuff” together).
Terran
Well-Known Member
Had the pandemic not occurred the aviation market would be buying in general. Even buying delayed aircraft. Right now with massive numbers of flight service reductions airlines are strapped for cash. Even with the grounding new orders would have come, the longer the delays and worse position the airlines are in the less they are looking to buy.
True they would have but in any case the neo was still outselling the max by a large margin even before issues with the max became apparent. Even Qantas who has been looking at future replacement of the 737 where looking at a fleet of A320neo/220 over the max. Boeing would have been lucky just to not get any cancellations.
At end of the day Boeing is going to need a large equity investment to give them the funds to afford to lower the cost on the max to compete with Airbus.
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On note of airlines I know Qantas has an actual plan to ride out the storm and based on latest financial report is going good what about other airlines around the world? Have they made plans or just all over the place?
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Qantas before COVID situation has one advantage, it has relative more cash compared most of other Airlines. Thus they have enough internal reserve to maintain reduce operation but in the same time still holding space of fixed costs. The condition will also depend on how big the Domestic market and Cargo Market of each Airlines can substitute the reduce travels that coming from practically no international flights.
For that, the threshold will be 2021. Most of major airlines can still hold this year either due their own reserve, or their Government incentive, or if their shareholders able to do injection. Many Flag Carriers being injected by their government as main share holders, but also carrier like Cathay that have strong shareholders still can help them by injecting temporary cash to maintain most of their grounded fleet and crews in Bay.
However if by mid 2021 there's still not enough recovery in global transportation trend, we will see enough airlines goes in chapter 11 or write off half of their fleet. Right now there're 50-60% of global airlines fleet are in reserve position. This's constitute on the Aircrafts it self and the crews that supports them. The condition in 2021 (how fast the recovery) will determine if most of them will be back in to air or being scrap.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Guess Boeing really losing the momentum for middle of the market. The business model for medium-long range thin routes cities to cities is taking momentum even during and after COVID 19. A321 XLR already taking the market of Boeing 757 and it will be hard for Boeing to entice the customer that already move to Airbus.
The trend that mostly in continental US and Trans Atlantic routes now already move to Aviation biggest market Asia-Pacific. In fact the market between secondary cities or Secondary to Primary cities, from what I read from Airlines Industry materials are going to increase further in future.
The Industry will fore gone Super Hub concept that give birth to A380. Some countries already open more their Airports for direct International routes. Indonesia for example that used to rely on two main gates for International travel (Jakarta and Bali), aimed to add Medan, Makasar and probably Surabaya, Bandung and Jogjakarta (both have new much larger Airports) for more direct International routes. Thus opening those 'secondary' cities for more medium-long range International routes instead, as currently nearly those kind of routes coming only to Bali and Jakarta.
Those cities before only open to domestic and short range International regional mostly to Singapore. Most medium-long range routes to those typical secondary cities will not be profitable/economical with wide bodies double aisle Airliner. However with narrow bodies like A321 Neo/LR/XLR, it can be make sense economically.
Seems those are trends of the future. 737-9/10 (as Boeing seems now call it and not MAX anymore) seems will be in difficulty considering their range optimum against A321 Neo/LR/XLR, to compete head to head for this kind of Market trend. Unless Boeing do something on that area.
Going to take a change in leadership. Current crop just to damn stubborn thinking the 737-9/10 is comparable to the A321neo/LR/XLR. Airlines not that stupid. Sure is apperantly a great aircraft and very economical compared to the A320neo but that's it. Airlines have shown big appetite for smaller longer range aircraft and Boeing at present is ignoring the market shift. If they extended the range and post fixes then they will have a great chance of current 737 operators going for it, at present they are now going for the A321 and due to economies of scale the A320neo also over the 737-8.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
I think the new CEO already thinking on that direction. I speculate based on his interview in media saying that he will review all the program. This resulted with they hold MNA (middle market concept with double aisle) and put effort for FSA (future small aircraft). Thus they seems know that the day of 737 already reach the end. Thus they need to bring brand new design.
However those thing I don't think will be available by later half of this decade at most. That's why I said this COVID situation can be seen as blessing in disguise too for Boeing. As for at least 2-3 years the market growth will be slown substantially, and most Airlines will slow down their fleet procurement.
Question can Boeing take advantage on that ? If they don't have something within this one-two years. Something that they can offer from existing portfolio to answer Airbus, this time reprieve will be gone.
I agree with you, why they're not doing something with MAX range (or 737-9/10). With Boeing resources, it should not be to difficult endeavor. They said they already solved MAX problem, thus their next step should tinker with it's range. Unless just like your say, they are still not accepting market changing on longer range single aisle trend.
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