Flanker Export Thread

[Boagrius]

It may depend on the size of the contract, and on how many other Su-30SM contracts they have. If it's what will keep the production line open, they may see it as worth it.

If they were going to procure an Irbis equipped Flanker variant (and Russia was willing to sell it to them), would it not make sense for the Iranians to go straight for the Su-35 ala Egypt? Perhaps the Su-30 would be more affordable..?

 

[Ananda]

Defense World

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www.defenseworld.net

Not an online source that I usually look, and in my opinion not really dependable. However I put this as example on what choices that Iran can realistically aim in modernising their AF.

As this blog run by Indian online 'journalist', they're bit more critical toward Russian fighters perhaps influence by Indian own experiences. However my points is more to how Iran going to pay either Russian or Chinese for new fighters.

Despite all US diplomatic debacles on handling Iran, US still hold one big gun which is USD. Even if after September Russian and Chinese openly support Iranian International trade, and perhaps the EU will stay in the fences, Iran still will be hard to trade with global market without access on USD. With most of global trade still rum with USD, the market for Iran to get hard currency will still be difficult to obtain.

In such Iran will only can pay with the only currency they own, which is oil. Thus how they're going to pay the Russian ? Russia is full of oil by themselves, and I suspect they'll be very reluctant to be paid by oil. However that situation will not be the same with China. They will accept Oil for payment of their J-10C or perhaps J-15.

Thus unless Iran has other method to gain hard currency (Euro could be the choices, but I'm bit sceptical EU will provide that if US and most of Gulf Kingdoms still hard on sanctioning Iran), then Oil for Assets with China is the only choice they have.

 

[HeimDefan]

If they were going to procure an Irbis equipped Flanker variant (and Russia was willing to sell it to them), would it not make sense for the Iranians to go straight for the Su-35 ala Egypt? Perhaps the Su-30 would be more affordable..?

Su-35 is quite a bit more costly than Su-30. Iran operates F-14 which is tandem seat like Su-30. So Su-30 is the best choice for replacing F-14.

 

[HeimDefan]

Wait.....
"Iran is getting JF-17 Block 3 "
Where did you get that from? The way you write that statement is like that Iran and china already have signed a contract and that Iran will get them for sure. (Sorry for my bad English)

Iran has a number of F-5E to phase out. The only realistic replacement is JF-17 Block 3. Even if Trump loses election and the US gets rid of sanction on Iran, the fact that Gripen and Tejas both use F404 makes them unreliable for Iran. JF-17 Block 3 is the only other plane in the light fighter category. JF-17 block 3 is the only realistic option for replacing F-5E in Iran.

 

[Feanor]

Iran has a number of F-5E to phase out. The only realistic replacement is JF-17 Block 3. Even if Trump loses election and the US gets rid of sanction on Iran, the fact that Gripen and Tejas both use F404 makes them unreliable for Iran. JF-17 Block 3 is the only other plane in the light fighter category. JF-17 block 3 is the only realistic option for replacing F-5E in Iran.

You logic makes sense but it's just an educated guess. Consider several other things.

1) Iran got the fighers it has as an inheritance from a previous regime, not a set of procurement decisions. It's not clear that the F-5 replacement has to be a light fighter or has to be 1 for 1.
2) Iran likely can't afford to replace it's entire fighter fleet. Older aircraft will continue to serve for quite some time, so the decision may be less about replacing what they have and more about adding what they don't have.
3) Iran has limited funds and the Su-30SM is relatively cheap. Note all of Russia's cash-strapped partners went for it, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia. (in point of fact Kazakhstan isn't doing too bad but their defense spending is limited, it's not the country but the military that's relatively cash strapped) This could be the deciding factor. Note, Myanmar also purchased the Su-30SME.
4) Iran has already shown interest in the Su-30SM, and I suspect the Su-30SME variant was aimed in part at Iran. Russia's CSTO partners get the domestic SM variant, and others get the regular MK export in whatever their chosen variation is. The only exception is the above-mentioned Myanmar, another isolated regime that wants relatively sophisticated weapons at an affordable price.

Note, it's entirely possible (likely even, in my opinion) that Iran will get the JF-17 in some version. But with presently available information I don't think we can confidently state that they will get a specific version for a specific purpose. Though if you have evidence to suggest that the Iranian military is thinking about it in those terms, please share.

 

[HeimDefan]

You logic makes sense but it's just an educated guess. Consider several other things.

1) Iran got the fighers it has as an inheritance from a previous regime, not a set of procurement decisions. It's not clear that the F-5 replacement has to be a light fighter or has to be 1 for 1.
2) Iran likely can't afford to replace it's entire fighter fleet. Older aircraft will continue to serve for quite some time, so the decision may be less about replacing what they have and more about adding what they don't have.
3) Iran has limited funds and the Su-30SM is relatively cheap. Note all of Russia's cash-strapped partners went for it, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Armenia. (in point of fact Kazakhstan isn't doing too bad but their defense spending is limited, it's not the country but the military that's relatively cash strapped) This could be the deciding factor. Note, Myanmar also purchased the Su-30SME.
4) Iran has already shown interest in the Su-30SM, and I suspect the Su-30SME variant was aimed in part at Iran. Russia's CSTO partners get the domestic SM variant, and others get the regular MK export in whatever their chosen variation is. The only exception is the above-mentioned Myanmar, another isolated regime that wants relatively sophisticated weapons at an affordable price.

Note, it's entirely possible (likely even, in my opinion) that Iran will get the JF-17 in some version. But with presently available information I don't think we can confidently state that they will get a specific version for a specific purpose. Though if you have evidence to suggest that the Iranian military is thinking about it in those terms, please share.

Currently Iran has 20 odd F-14 and 20 odd F-5 to phase out. The requirement for new jets is about 80 Su-30SM and 80 JF-17 Block 3 in the hi-lo combo.

Su-30 will not only phased out F-14 in the air to air role but also Su-24 in the air to ground role.

 

[oldsig127]

Currently Iran has 20 odd F-14 and 20 odd F-5 to phase out. The requirement for new jets is about 80 Su-30SM and 80 JF-17 Block 3 in the hi-lo combo.

Su-30 will not only phased out F-14 in the air to air role but also Su-24 in the air to ground role.

Where do you get the figures? Eighty of each seems as good as any other wild guess, but we'd rather see a reference, or at least an outline of the way you came to that conclusion.

oldsig

 

[tonnyc]

Currently Iran has 20 odd F-14 and 20 odd F-5 to phase out. The requirement for new jets is about 80 Su-30SM and 80 JF-17 Block 3 in the hi-lo combo.

Su-30 will not only phased out F-14 in the air to air role but also Su-24 in the air to ground role.

Is there a source for this? It's alright if it is in Iranian. I'd rather have a primary source in the original language than hearsay in English. With the weapon embargo expired, Iran is a significant potential market and I do want to hear what they look for in term of modern defence systems.

 

[OPSSG]

Linking to a factually inaccurate opinion piece does not constitute proof. You are hereby banned.
-Preceptor

That is one of the reasons why that particular poster's time on here was somewhat short. Preceptor swung the ban hammer on that one after the Moderators had their discussion and made their decision about said poster's future on here. You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink. In this case the poster in question was given guidance by members, DEFPROs, and a couple of the Moderators. However such guidance was brushed aside and the poster continued on their path of ignorance and ultimate introduction to the ban hammer. The Moderators would like to thank to the forum members and DEFPROs who took the time to offer guidance to HeimDefan.

I’ve copied the above replies by Preceptor and ngatimozart from another thread to provide context to the ban.

Is there a source for this?

HeimDefan can’t reply anymore as he has been permanently banned. We really can’t expect much from him as in another post he claimed he saw info from a bookstore — not even from a specific book or periodical.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Belarus plans to get four more Su-30SM.

Belarus 2021 purchases include four Mi-35Ms and four Su-30SMs

Belarus 2021 purchases include four Mi-35Ms and four Su-30SMs Belarus military plans to get four Mi-35M attack helicopters and additional four Su-30SM fighters from Russia in 2021,...

www.scramble.nl

And this article tells about a contract from Algeria.
Last year (and even before) there were reports that Algeria ordered large amounts of Su-34 and Su-35, but eventually nothing happened, so there is a big chance that the Su-57 procurement also ends up in nothing.
Besides that the Su-57 is not yet operational with the Russian Airforce as far as i know, so i am a bit sceptical.

"Russia's Sputnik reports that the Algerian government recently signed a final contract for fourteen Su-57 stealth fighters (NATO code-name Felon).

Already one year back, in December 2019, MENA Defense reported that Algeria would become the first export customer for the Sukhoi Su-57 and the Sukhoi Su-34. According to various media outlets the initial agreement was signed in 2019. The final contract for the Su-57 is valued at almost USD 2 billion."

Algerian contract for Sukhoi Su-57

Algerian contract for Sukhoi Su-57 Russia's Sputnik reports that the Algerian government recently signed a final contract for fourteen Su-57 stealth fighters (NATO code-name Felon)...

www.scramble.nl

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

I don't know how reliable this news source is, but it seems that Russia denies the sale of Su-34 and Su-57 to Algeria.

Russia denies selling Su-34 fighter jets to Algeria

Russian officials denied reports that a batch of Sukhoi Su-34 fighter jets are about to be delivered to Algeria.

www.aerotime.aero

"The news was widely reported in the Algerian press. Supposedly, six of 14 ordered aircraft would reach Algerian Air Force by the end of 2021, with the training of personnel scheduled for 2022. "

That doesnt make any sense, starting the training of the personnel one year after delivery of the first aircrafts, looking to this and the fact that the last ten years every report of the export of the Su-34/35/57 to Algeria were hoaxes, it is safe to expect that also this time there will be no deliveries soon to Algeria.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

So from which i understand, with the last four delivered next year, Kazakhstan will have 24 Su-30SM for two squadrons with 12 aircrafts each.

Kazakhstan to receive additional Su-30SM fighters by end of 2022

The Kazakhstan Air Defence Forces (KADF) will receive four Sukhoi Su-30SM ‘Flanker-H' multirole fighter aircraft from Russia by the end of 2022, the Director of Russia's...

www.janes.com

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

According to Scramble Magazine the Iranian minister of Defence comfirmed that Iran will receive the Su-35SE. The exact number of aircraft that is going to be delivered is not officially confirmed but the original order of 24 Su-35SE for the al-Quwwat al-Jawwiya Il Misriya (EAF, Egyptian Air Force) will now be diverted to the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF).

Su-35 Flanker E for Iran

Su-35 Flanker E for Iran Following the Scramble Magazine news item of 5 January 2022, it has now been confirmed by the Iranian minister of Defence that Iran will indeed receive the...

www.scramble.nl

 

[Feanor]

Apparently Algeria is receiving Su-34s after all. This is a questionable decision by Russia, since the VVS need all the Su-34s they can get with the current war effort. Between the continued use of badly outdated Su-24s, and the losses to the Su-34 fleet over Ukraine, this doesn't appear wise. Though perhaps retaining the Algerian market has strategic benefits in the long term. And of course the photo could be fake. Reportedly we're talking about 14 Su-34ME, meaning an export version of the new Su-34M.

Первые экспортные "тридцатьчетверки"

Подтвердились долго опровергаемые слухи о поставках Су-34 в Алжир Контракт был заключен еще в 2020 г. на 1,5 млрд долл. с поставкой в 2023-24 годах 14 фронтовых бомбардировщиков Су-34МЭ

afirsov.livejournal.com

 

[koxinga]

PressTv (Iran) has reported that the SU-35s will start arriving next week (end May 2023). Plenty of false starts so far so let's see.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657126506341052418

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

PressTv (Iran) has reported that the SU-35s will start arriving next week (end May 2023). Plenty of false starts so far so let's see.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657126506341052418

It seems nothing happened, no single Su-35 delivered to Iran, which is quite logic. Russia needs all fighterjets rolling out of its factories.


Now someting else...
For already some years the Indonesian Airforce get a part of its free fall bombs for the Sukhois from domestic manufacturers. But i didn't know that Indonesia also delivered the inert training version to Vietnam for its Su-27/-30 fighterjets. I wonder if Indonesia also delivers the conventional/life version of the bomb.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1779814726769512479

Edit: here a video from last year about this batch of P-100P practice bombs.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

This news is more than two months old, but recently the Qazaqstannıñ Äwe Qorğanısı Küşteri (Kazakhstan Air Force) received six more brand new Su-30SM multirole fighters, bort code 51 to 56 red.

If i am not wrong Kazakhstan already has more than 20 Su-30SM in its fleet, and this order was from a 2021 contract.

Kazakhstan - Shymkent gets Su-30SM

Kazakhstan - Shymkent gets Su-30SM Recently the Qazaqstannıñ Äwe Qorğanısı Küşteri (Kazakhstan Air Force) received six more brand new Su-30SM, bort code 51 to 56 red. The new two-s...

www.scramble.nl

 

[Ananda]

https://defence-blog.com/russia-inks-first-su-57-export-deal/

This is not news on Flanker export, but news on Flanker successor export. However at this moment eventough it is official Rosoboron statement, but still no information on the customers.

So speculation now run, from Egypt, Iran, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Algiers even Venezuela. There're wild speculation on forums and onlines enthusiasts. Some Indonesian enthusiasts especially those who are Russophile are extatic on Indonesia as export customer, especially after see this photo:



Some Indian enthusiasts talk about Su-57 as payback to US for not let India getting F-35. Vietnamese enthusiasts assure themselves that they are the customer as they claim Russia offer them something better then Su-35.

Either way Roboron really in Zhuhai want to convey massage to potential customers, and even Western officials. They are back and whether Su-35E or this Su-57E are already back to the Global export market.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

There is a large demand for Russian fighters and other weaponsystems, but those speculators forgot one thing: CAATSA.

Big chance this Su-57E order will end up like the Su-34 order for Algeria or the Su-35 order from Egypt and Indonesia, unless it's for a country which is 'immune' for CAATSA like Iran or North-Korea.

 

[Ananda]

chance this Su-57E order will end up like the Su-34 order for Algeria or the Su-35 order from Egypt and Indonesia, unless it's for a country which is 'immune' for CAATSA like Iran or North-Korea.

Russia Claims Su-57 Felon '5th Gen' Fighter Export Sale At Airshow China: Which Countries Might Risk It?

Russia has secured the first export order for the Su-57 Felon, and while its buyer is a mystery, there's a short list of potential customers.

simpleflying.com

Prediction seems going to Algeria, as Algeria so far seems still want wiling to 'defied' CAATSA. India seems also wiling to skirt with US on CAATSA, even Indonesia there're circles that want to continue buying Russian regardless CAATSA.

However with Trump back in power, India, Vietnam and Indonesia will do waiting game, but seems Algeria have more willingness to get closer to Russian on arms procurement. Especially after their regional rival Marroco got F-16V.

There're rumours that Indonesia AF Chief take cockpit photo session on SU-57 to give signal to US. Rumours now Prabowo wants F-35 instead F-15EX, and LM lobby seems that 'nudge' to Indonesia to bargain for F-35 to cut Boeing F-15EX. There're no budget for both for sure, but some rumours say that MinDef have second thought on F-15EX as potential totalpopulation wise seems it will not relative big procurement from USAF anyway. Perhaps CIA director visit to Prabowo during his stay in Washington part of the bargain.

Again all this just rumours and wild prediction from some defense insiders. However Rosoboronexport will not talk on Su-57 export customer, unless something more tangible already in hand.