I think its highly likely now we are either looking at upgrading 5 or 6 Collins boats and operating them for the foreseeable future. This will help with training and retention when the new platforms come on line. The global situation isn't improving. Things like budget surpluses are no longer important.
A decision is still pending.
The sites they are talking about are likely ex-ports, or current bases so there is a fair bit if infrastructure there anyway. Its not going to be an overnight thing. The first sub will likely be doing a lot of stuff over in WA simply because that is where the current sub focus is. That said, rebuilding sub capacity over on the east coast is going to be fairly easy compared to the original move over to WA originally. HMAS Waterhen seems to be in the running. There was a fair bit of open speculation about this back in late 2019.
As a Two Ocean Navy, there is a growing recognition that Australia’s future submarine fleet will need to have a permanent presence on the East Coast, with growing debate developing around the location and basing infrastructure needed to support the next-generation submarine fleet.
www.defenceconnect.com.au
Waterhen would be easy to use because it was completely rebuilt late 90's. It could probably operate 4 subs as is. If we want more than 4 on the east coast then I think its likely another location would be chosen.
Manus is ideal for an multi-regional airport, as you can then create a powerful triangle of regular flights across the SCS, including places like Guam, Japan, Palau.
Manus is also likely one of the key places PNG will base their patrol boats, and is likely to be a key hub for Patrol boats from the region for training etc.