General Aviation Thread

[John Fedup]

Here’s another example of the financial crisis awaiting general aviation. More examples will be forthcoming.

APAC airports could lose $23.9 billion revenue: trade association

The coronavirus crisis could have a $23.9 billion impact on revenue for Asia-Pacific airports this year, according to estimates by the Airports Council International (ACI) Asia-Pacific. In comparison, those in the Middle East could see a revenue shortfall of $5.7 billion, and ACI urged...

www.flightglobal.com

 

[ngatimozart]

Here’s another example of the financial crisis awaiting general aviation. More examples will be forthcoming.

APAC airports could lose $23.9 billion revenue: trade association

The coronavirus crisis could have a $23.9 billion impact on revenue for Asia-Pacific airports this year, according to estimates by the Airports Council International (ACI) Asia-Pacific. In comparison, those in the Middle East could see a revenue shortfall of $5.7 billion, and ACI urged...

www.flightglobal.com

I think civil aviation as we know it will be consigned to history and that post virus civil aviation will be a different animal. Many familiar airlines will disappear as will some operating models.

I know that Air New Zealand will survive because the NZG have the controlling interest in it, plus they've deemed it a strategic national interest. However that's just one country, and it's a result of our geographic location relative to the rest of the world.

How other countries respond will depend upon their individual political and economic perspectives and circumstances. For example will Germany bailout Lufthansa, France- Air France, Canada - Air Canada etc? What airline would the USG choose to bailout? Could it afford to bailout more than one airline?

The next question is manufacturers. Both Airbus and Boeing are going to take a big hit. Boeing reportedly has it's hand out to the USG for a US$60 billion bailout. Considering the problems that Boeing has brought upon itself, is it deserving of such a bailout?

With the collapse of airlines, the used aircraft market is going to be swamped with aircraft over the next 6 months to 1 year. That will impact upon the manufacturers too with new aircraft demand down. As I said in the paragraph above, they will be in for hard times. So the real question is will they survive and if so in what form? My own view at the moment is, that at the moment Airbus has a greater probability of surviving in good shape than Boeing.

 

[t68]

I think civil aviation as we know it will be consigned to history and that post virus civil aviation will be a different animal. Many familiar airlines will disappear as will some operating models.

I know that Air New Zealand will survive because the NZG have the controlling interest in it, plus they've deemed it a strategic national interest. However that's just one country, and it's a result of our geographic location relative to the rest of the world.

How other countries respond will depend upon their individual political and economic perspectives and circumstances. For example will Germany bailout Lufthansa, France- Air France, Canada - Air Canada etc? What airline would the USG choose to bailout? Could it afford to bailout more than one airline?

The next question is manufacturers. Both Airbus and Boeing are going to take a big hit. Boeing reportedly has it's hand out to the USG for a US$60 billion bailout. Considering the problems that Boeing has brought upon itself, is it deserving of such a bailout?

With the collapse of airlines, the used aircraft market is going to be swamped with aircraft over the next 6 months to 1 year. That will impact upon the manufacturers too with new aircraft demand down. As I said in the paragraph above, they will be in for hard times. So the real question is will they survive and if so in what form? My own view at the moment is, that at the moment Airbus has a greater probability of surviving in good shape than Boeing.

Out of the two big plane builders Airbus and Boeing I think Boeing has a future as the USG will not let them fail due to defence orders. Airbus just can’t compete with US military orders alone one only has to look at the C17 build compared to A400 to see that

 

[John Fedup]

Agree, a horrible situation. WRT airline bailouts, these will happen in some cases, e.g. Air Canada is headquartered in Montreal, Québec so junior will be looking after AC, WestJet based in Western Canada, probably not. Other countries will pick a preferred survivor carrier. Airbus and Boeing will both struggle but Airbus may be more vulnerable due to a lack of defence business. Boeing has pissed so many off that it may be sold off as a preferred way to save the industrial base. The big issue is the flying public (especially business flyers). I am not looking forward to sitting in airplanes for the next 12 months unless a vaccine becomes available or personal breathing units are installed along with bigger seats and alternating empty rows...like that will ever happen!

Have to be back in Vancouver before July. A long drive, even more so as taking a shortcut through the US is not an option now. Haven’t driven the North shore of Lake Superior in 40 years.

 

[ngatimozart]

Out of the two big plane builders Airbus and Boeing I think Boeing has a future as the USG will not let them fail due to defence orders. Airbus just can’t compete with US military orders alone one only has to look at the C17 build compared to A400 to see that

Yep, but the KC-46 program and the 737 MAX program has really soured things. The C-17 program was in a different time and under different management, before McDonnell Douglas management got their hands on the reins.

 

[Todjaeger]

Yep, but the KC-46 program and the 737 MAX program has really soured things. The C-17 program was in a different time and under different management, before McDonnell Douglas management got their hands on the reins.

Not sure that is really accurate regarding the C-17, as that aircraft started out as a McDonnell Douglas prototype prior to the merger/takeover by Boeing.

 

[John Fedup]

I think some feel that after the Boeing MD merger, MD management ended up taking over and are responsible for much of the current mess.

 

[Todjaeger]

I think some feel that after the Boeing MD merger, MD management ended up taking over and are responsible for much of the current mess.

That might be true, but the C-17 was a McDonnell Douglas design, which means that it was always under McDonnell Douglas management.

 

[John Fedup]

That might be true, but the C-17 was a McDonnell Douglas design, which means that it was always under McDonnell Douglas management.

Absolutely the C-17 was solely a MD effort and it did have some initial bumps along the way but it became a very successful product for MD and Boeing (maybe later production rates should have been slowed by Boeing a little more so late comers could still order along with current users who likely wish they had more of them). Other than that Boeing has been successful with the C-17 and MD’s other two programs, the F-15 and F-18 SH.

 

[t68]

The meaning behind my post was that the defence side of Boeing to keep it afloat will have access to a more sizeable base than Airbus,currently Boeing is ticking over in not just new build aircraft but also the continued support to many current in service aircraft,either thru refurbishment or evolution of existing products

It’s a bit like the continuation of new build C130J for Lockheed sooner or later the USwill need to build a C17 replacement the US will not want any of its major defence industry bodies to wither away and die, where as Airbus hasmoremulti national and very much more restrictedon how it operates and the magnitude to the amount of aircraft it has a potential buyers for

 

[Redlands18]

That might be true, but the C-17 was a McDonnell Douglas design, which means that it was always under McDonnell Douglas management.

Out of the two big plane builders Airbus and Boeing I think Boeing has a future as the USG will not let them fail due to defence orders. Airbus just can’t compete with US military orders alone one only has to look at the C17 build compared to A400 to see that

The collapse of Airbus would be a monumental disaster to most of Western Europe in particular. Don’t forget Eurofighter and Eurocopter are now part of the Airbus group. It would be in the best interests of a number of major countries to keep Airbus operational.

 

[t68]

The collapse of Airbus would be a monumental disaster to most of Western Europe in particular. Don’t forget Eurofighter and Eurocopter are now part of the Airbus group. It would be in the best interests of a number of major countries to keep Airbus operational.

Agree its in there interests. but at what price. The US is a very defence orientated economy unlike Europe

 

[ngatimozart]

The collapse of Airbus would be a monumental disaster to most of Western Europe in particular. Don’t forget Eurofighter and Eurocopter are now part of the Airbus group. It would be in the best interests of a number of major countries to keep Airbus operational.

Agree its in there interests. but at what price. The US is a very defence orientated economy unlike Europe

Both France and Germany will keep Airbus afloat. It's commercial aviation arm is very profitable and it is in both nations strategic interest to keep the defence and space arms afloat. If the Poms hadn't Brexit'd, they would've been the third supporting leg.

 

[swerve]

Airbus UK employs about 13,500 people making wings (for airliners & A400M) & various other bits & pieces. I think British politicians in general, & this lot in particular, would like to keep the main Airbus UK sites operating, for both short & long term political & economic reasons.

 

[John Fedup]

Boeing has shut down its Washington State production. Surprised it didn’t happen sooner (at least for their commercial stuff). Not like airlines are screaming for deliveries at the moment.

Boeing extends Washington state production shutdown indefinitely

Boeing Co <BA.N> said on Sunday it would extend the suspension of production operations at its Washington state facilities until further notice amid the coronavirus outbreak.

www.reuters.com

 

[John Fedup]

This link implies the KC-46 and P-8 production has ceased so perhaps there is still some commercial production in Washington although that seems unlikely.

Defense World

View News at Defense World

www.defenseworld.net

 

[2007yellow430]

Agree, a horrible situation. WRT airline bailouts, these will happen in some cases, e.g. Air Canada is headquartered in Montreal, Québec so junior will be looking after AC, WestJet based in Western Canada, probably not. Other countries will pick a preferred survivor carrier. Airbus and Boeing will both struggle but Airbus may be more vulnerable due to a lack of defence business. Boeing has pissed so many off that it may be sold off as a preferred way to save the industrial base. The big issue is the flying public (especially business flyers). I am not looking forward to sitting in airplanes for the next 12 months unless a vaccine becomes available or personal breathing units are installed along with bigger seats and alternating empty rows...like that will ever happen!

Have to be back in Vancouver before July. A long drive, even more so as taking a shortcut through the US is not an option now. Haven’t driven the North shore of Lake Superior in 40 years.

You could get a charter. General Aviation (not airlines) has plenty of space available. I see charter business growing tremendously. Why I have my own plane.

Art

 

[ngatimozart]

You could get a charter. General Aviation (not airlines) has plenty of space available. I see charter business growing tremendously. Why I have my own plane.

Art

No private flying allowed in NZ at the moment. Only aviation companies who are operating essential services can fly. Also, no swimming, surfing, fishing, hunting, off road biking, mountain biking, diving etc., allowed either. Can only use your car to go get groceries, visit the GP (doctor), chemist (pharmacy), and go to / work if your work is on the essential list. Lots of Kiwis going stir crazy in their homes. We're halfway through our four week lockdown.

Stay safe Art.

 

[2007yellow430]

No private flying allowed in NZ at the moment. Only aviation companies who are operating essential services can fly. Also, no swimming, surfing, fishing, hunting, off road biking, mountain biking, diving etc., allowed either. Can only use your car to go get groceries, visit the GP (doctor), chemist (pharmacy), and go to / work if your work is on the essential list. Lots of Kiwis going stir crazy in their homes. We're halfway through our four week lockdown.

Stay safe Art.

I try to fly weekly. Keeps my sanity. Fly from a private airport, so except for touch and goes at public use airports, no government involvement. Very safe, and gets me out of the house.

Art

 

[t68]

No private flying allowed in NZ at the moment. Only aviation companies who are operating essential services can fly. Also, no swimming, surfing, fishing, hunting, off road biking, mountain biking, diving etc., allowed either. Can only use your car to go get groceries, visit the GP (doctor), chemist (pharmacy), and go to / work if your work is on the essential list. Lots of Kiwis going stir crazy in their homes. We're halfway through our four week lockdown.

Stay safe Art.

Slightly off topic


What industries are on the essential list by chance NG or is it the same as Oz you can go to and from work but not restaurants pubs massage parlours nail salons etc