Turkey - Geopolitical & Geostrategic.

[Feanor]

My reading of the tea leaves is somewhat different from yours, it would seem.

For me, it is more a matter of trust than equality. If the US starts to distrust a nation and/or gov't/leader because of the direction they are going in terms of military, diplomatic, economic, or social posture etc. that will absolutely impact the US-foreign nation's relationship.

In order for Turkey to be able to purchase S-400 from Russia, especially being a NATO member, it would be logical that certain agreements would be either required, or already in place, prior to the purchase, as well as the Russian-Turkish relationship would need to be in a certain place. By way of example, a different NATO member like Canada could not simply have their FM ring the Russian Ambassador to Canada and place an order for S-400 for the Canadian Armed Forces.

As a result of that, the US would logically be concerned about that Russian-Turkish relationship, in addition to the cracks in the US-Turkish relationship, and then the potential the S-400 could be used to compromise some/all F-35 LO capabilities. In addition to that, there would logically be US concerns that Turkish F-35 information could make it's way to Russia through a variety of different routes.

Thank you for the detailed reply. I see your point.

As for the US-Russian rift being due to anything resembling the US being unwilling to consider Russia as an equal or near-equal partner, that IMO is absolute nonsense. Russia (then the Soviet Union) has not been a "partner" of the US since WWII, and honestly the Cold War was already underway well before V-E Day.

Perhaps I didn't use quite the right word. Partnership aside, it's a question of being treated as equals, rather then inferiors, at least for Russia I am confident this is the main issue. But I think I detect many of the same behaviors from Turkey today. And this is why I think the smartest thing for the US would have been to give Turkey some of what they want. At the end of the day, it's how Russia got Turkey to play ball with them, by being able and willing to offer them what the US was not, geopolitically speaking.

 

[Todjaeger]

Perhaps I didn't use quite the right word. Partnership aside, it's a question of being treated as equals, rather then inferiors, at least for Russia I am confident this is the main issue. But I think I detect many of the same behaviors from Turkey today. And this is why I think the smartest thing for the US would have been to give Turkey some of what they want. At the end of the day, it's how Russia got Turkey to play ball with them, by being able and willing to offer them what the US was not, geopolitically speaking.

Unfortunately I cannot really reply for several reasons. For one thing, a discussion of the US-Russia/Soviet Union relationship is wildly Off Topic. For another, such a discussion would not be a strictly military/naval/defence discussion, as there are whole dimensions of socio-political, as well as legal and economic issues, all of which have played or are playing a part.

The quick and easy response IMO is to say, "it is not that simple..."

 

[Feanor]

Unfortunately I cannot really reply for several reasons. For one thing, a discussion of the US-Russia/Soviet Union relationship is wildly Off Topic. For another, such a discussion would not be a strictly military/naval/defence discussion, as there are whole dimensions of socio-political, as well as legal and economic issues, all of which have played or are playing a part.

The quick and easy response IMO is to say, "it is not that simple..."

Fair enough.

Back on the original subject, in my opinion losing the F-35 will significantly hurt the Turks in the medium term. I suspect they will have to make major adjustments in their planning for the future, and it will be interesting to see how they adjust. Erdogan has talked about the Su-57 as an alternative, but I have a hard time seeing it. They would be incompatible on munitions with their existing (and not so small) fleet of F-16s and F-4s. It would also increase the difficulties of integrating into not just NATO structures but even with their own current assets, including AEW. So I'm not sure how realistic of a claim this was. It would also require lengthy negotiations, so best case scenario they get massively delayed and significantly more problematic aircraft. But what other options do they have for a 5th generation jet? Chinese?

 

[wittmanace]

I think a significant point being overlooked is current Turkish ability to deploy their current platforms. My understanding is that the post coup purge has meant there is a real difficulty in operating their f-16 fleet as it is. If Erdogan sees greater value in not backing down and getting s-400s and other incentives than he sees in backing down but getting f-35 I wouldn’t know of course, but I also don’t know if he thinks the threats will actually be carried out in the end. Saving face and only having to pay with a significant delay when they know they already are operating with limited capability to deploy their f-16s might not be a tough call for Erdogan if he sees it that way. Especially if he gets the s-400s, and a proper seat at the table Re: Syria and the Kurds etc.

Fair enough.

Back on the original subject, in my opinion losing the F-35 will significantly hurt the Turks in the medium term. I suspect they will have to make major adjustments in their planning for the future, and it will be interesting to see how they adjust. Erdogan has talked about the Su-57 as an alternative, but I have a hard time seeing it. They would be incompatible on munitions with their existing (and not so small) fleet of F-16s and F-4s. It would also increase the difficulties of integrating into not just NATO structures but even with their own current assets, including AEW. So I'm not sure how realistic of a claim this was. It would also require lengthy negotiations, so best case scenario they get massively delayed and significantly more problematic aircraft. But what other options do they have for a 5th generation jet? Chinese?

 

[John Fedup]

If Western jets are off the table (and they should be as long as Erdogan is around) then that leaves two options. If China ever develops superior turbines as compared to Russia, then IMHO, the J-31 might be a better bang for the buck and would likely have superior after sale support as compared to any Russian alternatives. I doubt the Chinese are willing to export the J-20 at the moment. The state of Turkey's post coup AF is an interesting question.

 

[ngatimozart]

Just throwing this out there, I wonder if Erdogan is moving towards more autocratic rule, by consolidating more power in his hands and ruling by decree, especially after the results of the recent local body elections. He's no fool and using the 2016 coup attempt to gut the military and judiciary of any who oppose him, he's basically laying the ground work. The US F-35 pull back and EU membership application lapse are both claims he will use to justify any anti US, Europe & NATO rhetoric and actions including pulling out of NATO. He can claim that these three have ganged up and denied Turkey's rightful place in the world, are a threat to her wellbeing and security, and are a threat to Islam. Very nationalistic and sectarian.

 

[Feanor]

If Western jets are off the table (and they should be as long as Erdogan is around) then that leaves two options. If China ever develops superior turbines as compared to Russia, then IMHO, the J-31 might be a better bang for the buck and would likely have superior after sale support as compared to any Russian alternatives. I doubt the Chinese are willing to export the J-20 at the moment. The state of Turkey's post coup AF is an interesting question.

Are they off the table? And going Chinese sure wouldn't look good unless it came with some sort of ToT, in my opinion. Actually with the loss of India as a partner for the Su-57 (they will likely be back eventually), and assuming the Turks could be trusted long term, Russia would probably be more willing to offer partial ToT. They're already building multiple nuke plants in Turkey, have major bilateral trade, and Russian tourists love Turkey. If the S-400 question truly drives a wedge between Turkey and NATO, Russia might even see an Su-57 as a way to cement that wedge. Though they would be in serious logistical trouble. Russian post-sale support is never great, and they would need a whole new family of munitions air-to-air and air to ground. They would also have to either do some serious work on their AEW fleet (as well as other support assets). I don't know, I really don't. The possibility is there, but the cost to Turkey would be huge. It looks possible, but so messy. They would almost be building a new air force.

 

[Todjaeger]

Are they off the table? And going Chinese sure wouldn't look good unless it came with some sort of ToT, in my opinion. Actually with the loss of India as a partner for the Su-57 (they will likely be back eventually), and assuming the Turks could be trusted long term, Russia would probably be more willing to offer partial ToT. They're already building multiple nuke plants in Turkey, have major bilateral trade, and Russian tourists love Turkey. If the S-400 question truly drives a wedge between Turkey and NATO, Russia might even see an Su-57 as a way to cement that wedge. Though they would be in serious logistical trouble. Russian post-sale support is never great, and they would need a whole new family of munitions air-to-air and air to ground. They would also have to either do some serious work on their AEW fleet (as well as other support assets). I don't know, I really don't. The possibility is there, but the cost to Turkey would be huge. It looks possible, but so messy. They would almost be building a new air force.

If Turkey does go down this path, it would likely involve much more than just building a new air force. The naval and land/ground forces are all configured for operations using NATO standard data links. Turkey would either need to integrate each new piece of kit so that it can make use of the battlespace picture Turkey has or can generate, or switch to using whatever Russian and/or Chinese data links are available. The third option would of course be to forego maintaining the existing data links and not adopt any new ones, but that would be a rather large step backwards in terms of individual unit Situational Awareness, as well as overall Battlespace Management.

In a number of respects it would be like how some of the former Warsaw Pact nations have had to update and modify (or purchase new) kit after they joined NATO, so that they are capable of integrating into and operating alongside other NATO forces. The situation with Turkey however would be a bit more significant IMO given the greater degree of development of data links that Turkey should be accustomed to operating with. I cannot recall a current NATO and former Warsaw Pact member nation that operated an AEW aircraft as capable as the B737 Peace Eagle AEW&C.

 

[King Wally]

I would actually suggest Turkey may be better placed to focus on upgrades to their F16 fleet for the next few years and simply delay any decision on a replacement. That should see some alternative options mature and perhaps even a change in US presidency which changes the game again.

 

[John Fedup]

Again, Erdogan is the bigger issue as far as Turkey getting F-35s is concerned. A change in the US presidential chair won't change this but Erdogan's departure might. Certainly the change from Western technology to Russian or Chinese (or combination of both) will be huge. As he has purged much of the AF, training costs will be large regardless of what happens as it will be new personnel.

Assuming Erdogan takes Turkey out of NATO, it will be interesting to see how the Turkish military industry decides on how to choose between Chinese and Russian cooperative ventures (Erdogan will influence these decisions). Russia has more experience in this along with some good kit but China has good kit as well but more importantly lots of money. Loans to cover the enormous costs of conversion could be the big advantage for China.

 

[Ananda]

Support for Turkey’s Erdoğan may be at a turning point - The Times | Ahval

This article shown that Erdogan political based is deteriorating. He's still has large support based but deteriorating.
No matter what your ideological or personal attraction, any leader that govern on deteriorating economics will faced deteriorating political based.

S-400 or F-35 issue increasingly being used by Erdogan to strengthen his political based. That's why in my opinion he will not going to budge on US pressure on this. The way I see whether you are probably or anti Erdogan.. average Turkish is proud of their nation and their historical legacy. Which this will be used by Erdogan to keep support his political based.

So, this is what I raise on my previous post. Is it wise for US to push Turkey on this S-400 and F-35 issues ? when they surely knows any pressure will benefit Erdogan cause.

My sense is that US should not push Erdogan on the issue, but just buying time ..seems Erdogan economics management will dismantle his own based anyway.

 

[ngatimozart]

Support for Turkey’s Erdoğan may be at a turning point - The Times | Ahval

This article shown that Erdogan political based is deteriorating. He's still has large support based but deteriorating.
No matter what your ideological or personal attraction, any leader that govern on deteriorating economics will faced deteriorating political based.

S-400 or F-35 issue increasingly being used by Erdogan to strengthen his political based. That's why in my opinion he will not going to budge on US pressure on this. The way I see whether you are probably or anti Erdogan.. average Turkish is proud of their nation and their historical legacy. Which this will be used by Erdogan to keep support his political based.

So, this is what I raise on my previous post. Is it wise for US to push Turkey on this S-400 and F-35 issues ? when they surely knows any pressure will benefit Erdogan cause.

My sense is that US should not push Erdogan on the issue, but just buying time ..seems Erdogan economics management will dismantle his own based anyway.

Yes, but Erdogan has basically neutered the two institutions that had capabilities to really challenge him and protect Turkish democracy; the military and the courts. Now that he has the taste of the trappings and baubles of power, what happens if he doesn't want to relinquish it? Already he's circumventing the democratic principles of govt by his governing by decree and his recent shenanigans of an election rerun in Istanbul because his mayoral candidate lost. Plus he's still not given up on his vision of being the next Sultan of an Ottoman Empire.

 

[Feanor]

If Turkey does go down this path, it would likely involve much more than just building a new air force. The naval and land/ground forces are all configured for operations using NATO standard data links. Turkey would either need to integrate each new piece of kit so that it can make use of the battlespace picture Turkey has or can generate, or switch to using whatever Russian and/or Chinese data links are available. The third option would of course be to forego maintaining the existing data links and not adopt any new ones, but that would be a rather large step backwards in terms of individual unit Situational Awareness, as well as overall Battlespace Management.

In a number of respects it would be like how some of the former Warsaw Pact nations have had to update and modify (or purchase new) kit after they joined NATO, so that they are capable of integrating into and operating alongside other NATO forces. The situation with Turkey however would be a bit more significant IMO given the greater degree of development of data links that Turkey should be accustomed to operating with. I cannot recall a current NATO and former Warsaw Pact member nation that operated an AEW aircraft as capable as the B737 Peace Eagle AEW&C.

That's just it. I mean Poland operates Soviet jets and SAMs but they don't have the kind of advanced capabilities that the Turks do, and certainly don't operate AEW or anything close to that. And even they had to invest into making their Soviet gear compatible. The closest one I can think of is Greece who operates F-16s alongside a ground-based IADS around S-300PMUs and Tor-M1s. But I distinctly recall reading that they had to get Russian specialists involved to link those assets together. India has some experience in linking Russian SAMs and aircraft with western electronics, but their equipment and experience is older. I think we would almost have to see a dedicated variant of the Su-57 developed just for Turkey, and the same for the S-400, if they're serious about integrating them into their current force structure. And I don't think the Turks would be able to do that without the support from western manufacturers.

I would actually suggest Turkey may be better placed to focus on upgrades to their F16 fleet for the next few years and simply delay any decision on a replacement. That should see some alternative options mature and perhaps even a change in US presidency which changes the game again.

This actually makes a lot of sense. Turkey isn't facing any threat that necessarily requires a 5th generation fighter jet fleet in the near future. And given the political ramifications , as well as prohibitive financial costs of any step forward under present circumstances, doing nothing and simply maintaining and upgrading what they have does seem like the most logical choice. Unless Turkey getting kicked out of the F-35 program turns into a big political thing, in which case Erdogan might feel compelled to make a counter-move for reasons that have nothing to do with actual military-technical effectiveness.

 

[Feanor]

Assuming Erdogan takes Turkey out of NATO

I keep seeing this idea crop up in this thread, but I'm not sure where is stems from. Is there a reason we think Erdogan would want to take Turkey out of NATO? Wouldn't it make much more sense for him to keep doing what he's doing while still retaining his NATO membership as a backup?

Yes, but Erdogan has basically neutered the two institutions that had capabilities to really challenge him and protect Turkish democracy; the military and the courts. Now that he has the taste of the trappings and baubles of power, what happens if he doesn't want to relinquish it? Already he's circumventing the democratic principles of govt by his governing by decree and his recent shenanigans of an election rerun in Istanbul because his mayoral candidate lost. Plus he's still not given up on his vision of being the next Sultan of an Ottoman Empire.

It's not clear which direction this will take though. Nobody rules alone, and the people who enable Erdogan to do what he does may pull their support if he becomes too unpopular, or takes his role as "sultan" a little too seriously. And Erdogan might be able to do without them, or he might not. I think Ananda is fundamentally correct that the best approach would be not to push Turkey but instead offer Turkey some limited incentives, and see what direction things take.

 

[John Fedup]

Exactly, Erdogan is on the president for life path and effective opposition to this is fading everyday. No point providing bullets to someone that will return them to you via a gun barrel. Allowing the F-35 sale to Turkey while Erdogan remains in power is an unacceptable risk.

 

[Todjaeger]

I keep seeing this idea crop up in this thread, but I'm not sure where is stems from. Is there a reason we think Erdogan would want to take Turkey out of NATO? Wouldn't it make much more sense for him to keep doing what he's doing while still retaining his NATO membership as a backup?

At present, it does seem like Turkey leaving (or being expelled from) NATO is a rather distant possibility, but at the same time, it also seems like the potential for it to happen is much greater than before Erdogan came to power. There is definite potential for Erdogan to have ambitions that NATO would oppose which could lead to Erdogan opting to leave, possible territorial claims issues between Turkey and other NATO members comes to mind. At the same time, the NATO membership as a whole could find itself unacceptably uncomfortable with Turkish policy and actions causing other NATO members to shut Turkey out of intelligence and technology sharing, if the other members lose faith and trust in Turkey's willingness to contain or use the information. Another very real potential concern that other NATO members could have, is that Turkey might invoke Article Five after stirring up enough trouble in a neighbouring country to cause them to respond.

It's not clear which direction this will take though. Nobody rules alone, and the people who enable Erdogan to do what he does may pull their support if he becomes too unpopular, or takes his role as "sultan" a little too seriously. And Erdogan might be able to do without them, or he might not. I think Ananda is fundamentally correct that the best approach would be not to push Turkey but instead offer Turkey some limited incentives, and see what direction things take.

This is getting rather far from defence matters, and is dangerously close to politics IMO, but I feel obligated to point out that there are a number of nations with repressive, autocratic regimes which have held power for years, sometimes under a single leader, other times under a succession of leaders. Turkey has not, yet, gotten to that point I believe, but the concerns expressed by the EU and NATO members would suggest that a number of nations feel that under the current leadership, Turkey could change from what had been a secular, constitutional republic to something else.

 

[Ananda]

It's not clear which direction this will take though. Nobody rules alone, and the people who enable Erdogan to do what he does may pull their support if he becomes too unpopular, or takes his role as "sultan" a little too seriously. And Erdogan might be able to do without them, or he might not. I think Ananda is fundamentally correct that the best approach would be not to push Turkey but instead offer Turkey some limited incentives, and see what direction things take.

Yes, that's exactly what I see the US should do. Pushing Turkey to far will just be counter productive in such only fueling Erdogan political engine, at the time the engine actually began loosing some steam.

The way I see it, after looking some Turkish forums or Media, the Istanbul mayoral dispute (as some in West used as indicator of Erdogan power on Judicial bodies in Turkey), is not clear cut winning on Erdogan camp. Erdogan camp want the opposition being annulled, while the Judicial outcome is to rerun the election.

This means the opposition still have some room to counter Erdogan, in fact a rerun can be more damaging later on to Erdogan camp. Thus I still see Erdogan based is decreasing.
The Military might be right now in Erdogan back..but after the coup there are (if the Turkish forums and media can be used as reliable source) feeling of wait and see attitude. The coup being launch when Erdogan based still very strong, but now seems the opposition is the one that getting pace.

I'm not suggesting the US to give F-35 to Turkey in this time around, but there are other options on US language that can be used to give room for Turkey but at same time provide space for US on buying time.

The momentum actually not entirely in Erdogan camp in Turkey. Especially on economics front. I don't think Erdogan have same kind of luxury like Maduro in Venezuela..where he still can maintain power in the economic mess situations.

Off course Erdogan wants to have continous power..but Turkey is not Venezuela. If Erdogan tampered too much on Turkish democratic process, it will give excuse to disgruntled based in Military to move. Erdogan clamped down on Military from what I read seems more to Air Force and much limited with the Army and Navy. In sense Erdogan seems so far choose more clamping down on Weakest branch of Turkish armed forces, shown he's actually not dare to pook the military as much as it seems.

Point is, too much pressure to Turkey can be what Erdogan's camp hoping for.
Again this if US still want Turkey in their side. But if US actually wants Turkey out (no matter who in the end control Turkey)..then by all mind..Just put more pressure for Turkey to get out from Western camp.

If US give more room for Venezuelan opposition to work (even actually the Venezuelan opposition make miscalculated move so far)..why don't give more room for them (Turkish Opposition) to maneuver, by not giving Erdogan excuses to keep popular. With Erdogan economics management..it's just matter of time.

Sorry, don't mean to go to politics, but so far the action on US with Turkey is more and more in politically motivation and not in defense consideration. So..it's back to the US and NATO..are they still want Turkey in NATO ?

 

[John Fedup]

Perhaps the more knowledgeable here can comment on the Turkish military wrt to Erdogan. Certainly it appears the AF wasn't a fan of Erdogan but what about the other two branches? I assume the army would be the prime mover wrt to a future coup. Based on the first attempt, the army either didn't support the coup or couldn't see it being in their interests at the time. The AF, on the other hand, saw their F-35 acquisition going down the drain. Economics could be a problem for Erdogan but if his security services and a significant portion of the army command support him and his drift to an Islamic republic or whatever, it may not matter what the public thinks at this point.

 

[ngatimozart]

Erdogan's second Istanbul mayoral election ploy backfired and the opposition candidate won with 54% of the vote with Erdogan's AKP candidate who was the incumbent mayor receiving 45% of the vote and having to concede defeat. The lead went from about 13,000 votes in March to around 800,000 yesterday. This will be a major problem for the AKP because a lot of their patronage originates in Istanbul through various schemes that involved the city coffers. Apparently Erdogan is fond of saying "whoever wins Istanbul, wins Turkey," so what he will do now remains to be seen. IIRC he's still ruling by decree so we'll have to see.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

It will be not wise if that Lybian warlord try to harm these 6 Turkish persons.
Turkey threatens Libyan strongman as six held
Big chance we can expect airstrikes in that case.