Disenfranchised militias with few prospects, seems we have seen a lot of this before in the ME. Very troubling for this vulnerable region.
It's a mess, really. Under the reign of Chavez-Maduro, the government has made efforts to improve the lot of the impoverished masses. On the flip side Maduro isn't a particularly capable leader, and between the steep drop in oil prices and western sanctions, he's done a piss-poor job of managing the economy. This has re-invigorated the opposition. But then neither Chavez nor Maduro were/are dictators. There has always been an opposition, and they even get a significant presence in parliament. The chavistas are populists, and retain power on the backs of support from the lower classes, in exchange for which they throw
some of the nation's oil wealth in their direction. Chavez had serious problems with military coups during his reign, which led to purges of the military leadership and officer corps, replacing many with people from those lower classes, as well as the establishment of a giant national militia with small arms and basic combat and insurgency training. This meant that even if an army coup succeeded, the army would immediately face massive opposition not only from within its own ranks but also from this parallel structure. Thus today the army remains loyal to Maduro, and he is enjoys enough popular support to mount massive counter-demonstrations against the opposition. If not for consistent US backing, I think the opposition would have folded already. Even as it stands, their chances don't look good, and a government backed by foreign bayonets can't be particularly desirable or particularly stable for Venezuela or their neighbors.
Some photos from the recent events.
Венесуэла.
Коротко по Венесуэле. 30.04.2019
EDIT: To make matters even more interesting, it appears that the US is claiming that tens of thousands of Cubans and hundreds of Russians have taken over the Venezuelan government. While I have no doubt that advisers from both are present (and were present in the past), this claim doesn't look particularly credible, to me at least.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...ys-zero/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.57841cb419d7
